(Passing) Records Are Made To Be Broken
by Chris Brophy
21/10/2008
 
Lies, damn lies and statistics – that's how the saying goes I believe. You'll hear many NFL players comment on stats and roll out the old cliché about how the only stat that matters is winning but like it or not, they play a big part of the interest in football. Whilst stats certainly don't tell the full story, they offer a measure of success and a way to compare like for like. With the football (regular) season approaching the half way mark, the Diner decided to take a look at the threats to some of the big passing records (we'd be here until Doomsday if we went through all the categories) and landmarks ready to be toppled and predicts if they'll be beaten or not.
 
Passing Yards in a Season: The current record stands at 5084 yards by Dan Marino in 1984 and is part of arguably the greatest season ever by a QB. Marino almost single handed led his team to a Super Bowl where they came up short against the 49ers but nevertheless, Marino was unstoppable that year.
 
The threat to this mark comes from Saints QB Drew Brees sits on 2224 yards after 7 games. Divide that total by 7 and it equals just less than 318 yards per game. Multiple by 16 and it comes out at 5083! One freakin' yard short!! Brees is certainly a legitimate threat to challenge the landmark total of Marino and the Saints are certainly a pass first team but they also make a lot of short passes and when you look at Marino's totals from 1984, just as impressive as being the first man to throw for over 5000 yards in a season is the fact he average over 9 yards per attempt! For what it's worth, Brees currently is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt.
 
Prediction: Given that impressive average per attempt by Marino and the fact Reggie Bush - who is a vital part of the Saints passing game – has just gone down injured, the Diner says Brees comes up short but possibly challenges for the second highest total ever - held by Kurt Warner with the Rams in 2001 - of 4830. Ironically, Warner currently sits second to Brees in passing yard with 1708 yards in 6 games.
 
Before we leave passing yardage in a season completely, Peyton Manning holds the record for most passing yards in a rookie season with 3739. Impressive rookie Falcons QB Matt Ryan looks unlikely to challenge it but he is one pace to become only the second QB ever to pass for over 3000 yards in his rookie season. The second highest total belongs to Chris Weinke as a Panther in 2001 with 2931. At current pace Ryan should throw for about 3100 yards.
 
Passing Completion Percentage in a Season: The current mark belongs to Ken Anderson of the Bengals at 70.55% in 1982 over a 9 game season. The next best mark of 70.33% goes all the way back to 1945 by the Redskins Sammy Baugh but was over only an 8 game season so Steve Young's mark of 70.28 over 16 games in 1994 might actually be the most impressive even though it's only third in the list.
 
At present, six QB's have completion rates of 68% or better. Top of the pile is that man Brees again with 70% so there are plenty of threats out there to this record.
 
Prediction: Completion percentages are going up and up all the time it seems but Anderson's mark will last a bit longer. Maybe it is helped by being set over a shorter season so the best way to beat the mark might be for it to be broken is by a QB who starts above it and gets injured for the season just after passing the qualifying attempt mark. Not that we are the Diner wish anyone to get injured you understand.
 
Pass Attempts Without An Interception: One passing record was broken this season. The Redskins have now gone 332 passing attempts without an interception passing the old mark of 281 set by the Raiders in 2002. The Redskins streak goes back to last season and includes passes thrown by Jason Campbell (224), Todd Collins (105), Antwaan Randle El (2) and Clinton Portis (1). Campbell is currently the only QB in the league with over 65 attempts to have not thrown an interception and has set an individual franchise mark with his 224 clean attempts. The individual mark for passes attempted without an interception belongs to Bernie Kosar with 308 and was set over the 1990-91 seasons.
 
Prediction: Jason Campbell has been playing nicely in the passing scheme of Jim Zorn but surely the Diner has jinxed him by bringing this up now. At current pace, he is about 3 games from passing Kosar's mark. The Skins next three games are against the Lions, Steelers and then the Cowboys. It's a big ask but for the hell of it we'll act like we are on Sky Sports and say “You can do it!”
 
All Time Passing Lists Movers: By coming back, Brett Favre continues to add to his all time total passing yardage but it's worth noting the guy who will likely challenge him once he finally does retire (aren't you dreading that off-season soap opera already ?) – Colts QB Peyton Manning – moved past Dan Fouts into 8th place on the all time passing yardage list this pass Sunday. He currently has 43157 yards and should finish the year in 7th place overtaking Drew Bledsoe who has 44611. Assuming Manning can stay healthy and start right through 2009, he should end that year in 4th place approaching 50000 yards and just behind the top three of Favre, Marino and John Elway who are the only three players to ever pass for over 50000 yards in the NFL.
 
Manning also passed Fouts for 8th place in the all time attempts list this past Sunday and he has now dropped back 5629 times in his NFL career. He's unlikely to move any further up that list this season as he is still a good 800+ attempts behind next placed Fran Tarkenton. However, Manning should pass Tarkenton on the all time completions list within the next few weeks. Manning currently sits on 3604 compared to Tarkenton's total of 3686. That would put Peyton in 7th place on that list and Vinny Testaverde in 6th place with 3787 could be passed before the season is out. Another mover in the all time top 20 passing yardage list this past Sunday was Titans QB Kerry Collins, who passed former Bills QB Jim Kelly to move into 14th place all time with 35580 yards.