The Drought Is Almost Over
by Josh Galligan
5/8/2008
 
Ah, it’s finally here. You’ve begun to feel a hint of autumn in the air, even if that air is 98 degrees and disgustingly muggy. Your mouth waters as you close your eyes and imagine the taste of your new bleu cheese scallion potato tots recipe and how good it will taste on the upcoming football Sundays. It’s that magical time of year when it’s perfectly okay to buy fourteen magazines that all have essentially the same information. And interestingly enough, very similar covers as well. It’s the time of year when you study statistics, pore over analysis and attempt to talk yourself into the upside of Matt Cassell, should you find yourself in a situation in which you needed to draft multiple backup quarterbacks. Lastly and most importantly it is the only time of year when everyone is in first place. And for you my friend, that’s as likely as close as you’ll get all year.
 
If you’re like me, you knew a ton about football; its history, the players, the strategy. Unfortunately, it never translated into fantasy success and you were sidled with mediocre mid-league finishes or even a couple dreaded last place ones. The same exact thing happened to me for a couple of years until I took a look at all of my strategies from outside the box and rooted out the blatantly retarded ones. Seriously, if you try and take an unbiased look at everything you normally do from pre-draft to Week 16, you’ll find a couple of things that can’t help but stand out as insane.
 
For example, I had a very nasty habit of drinking a tad much at the draft. One beer would turn into two. Two beers would turn into three. Three beers would turn into five Jack and Coke’s. Nothing too heavy, but it definitely clouded my judgment. Before I knew it, I had drafted three kickers, agreed to two trades and gone on a fairly controversial tirade on how punting should be abolished from the game. My season was basically done before it even started. So if you’re a boozer, absolutely do NOT pre-game. In fact, just don’t drink at all until the draft is all done. Or at least don’t start until you’re halfway through. Okay fine, a two beer minimum for the first half of the draft. Deal.
 
Next, I tended to put a little too much stake in who I had marked as a sleeper. As in, I’d take them several rounds too early and make an utter ass of myself. Oh Mewelde Moore, why did you forsake me so?! The best advice I could give you is to play it safe, take some risky upside picks obviously -- but don’t be expecting something like the rookie Kevin Smith being your RB2. That would be a dumb thing to do.
 
The next thing that stood out was I was in way too many leagues. Two money leagues, four free ones and team that I co-owned with my girlfriend so she couldn’t yell at me when I watched football from 11am to 11pm on Sundays. If your not good at math, that’s way too many leagues to be involved in. I was more or less rooting for the entire NFL to do well. It wasn’t enough to drive me insane, but it was enough for me to switch from Bud Light to whiskey as the drink of choice on Sunday. My liver has since thanked me for cutting back on the leagues I am in. I have a select group of players I root for and I tend to saddle up the teams I do have with similar players, for better or worse.
 
Lastly, I always thought that you needed to trade at some point during the season in order to be successful. Even if I was already being pretty successful without any trades, I was somehow convinced I needed at least one trade to put me over the top. Instead, it sent me hurtling down to the bottom of the standings. Don’t fall into the same trap -- if your team is good, than your team is good. Don’t trade anyone until things start getting desperate because there’s just no need.
 
Unfortunately, I’ve never had the privilege of getting the number one pick in any league that I‘ve participated in, but there’s usually a lot of controversy each year about the Top 3. L.T. has made the number one pick a no-brainer these past couple years, but an incredibly strong upper echelon of running backs this year has caused many a heated debate.
 
On one hand you have the consistent, fantasy football stud LaDainian Tomlinson. He gives you tons and tons of points year in and year out but he’s starting to get up there in age. The topic of age leads nicely into the next contender, Adrian Peterson. Although Peterson has only played one year in the NFL, it was such a fantastic year and he’s hypnotized so many people with his dazzling runs and enormous fantasy weeks, they fail to recognize that he didn’t even play a full year last year. He’s been quite susceptible to the injury bug over his career. But he’s young and if you find yourself in a keeper or dynasty league, he’s an awfully enticing pick.
 
If you are in point-per-reception leagues you have to throw in Brian Westbrook into the mix for the top pick. He gives such a solid blend of rushing and reception points each week that you could build a solid case for him as #1 overall, as long as your not in the room with the rabid L.T. or A.P. supporters.
 
In reality, you probably won’t even have a Top 3 pick. Hey, you might not have a pick until the end of the first round, when all of the top backs are gone. It is here that drafting strategy comes into play. There are many, many different drafting strategies. Some like to draft the best player available, no matter what the position. Some stock up on running backs early and often, knowing it’s the toughest position in fantasy football to fill later in the year -- and the most rewarding. Still others have a set strategy of how they believe the draft will go and when the entire thing blows up in their face after pick 5 doesn’t go how they expect, they snap and tend to take some quizzical, scratch-your-head-type picks. These are the people don’t do too well under pressure, don’t you know.
 
It’s hard to just read up on these strategies and then select one. What you need to do is study up on things like your scoring system and your teams roster size. Do you get points per reception? Negative points for interceptions? How many running backs do you start? Two? Three? Seven? How many teams are in the league? Will there be enough good running backs to select a suitable RB2 in round three, after the other nineteen teams in your league have selected their players? General draft strategies are good to use as a template, but as with most templates -- you have to customize it a bit for it to really work for you.
 
If your really serious about this fantasy football thing, than I highly, highly suggest you get some form of NFL Sunday Ticket. Not only would it be great just for freedom of choice even if you didn’t have a fantasy team, it officially becomes like crack when you have yourself a team to monitor. Expect to become an absolute wizard with your remote and feel free to invite “friends” who are in your league over for some friendly banter. Or full on fist-fighting, whatever is your league’s cup of tea.
 
The biggest advice I can offer is go with your gut. Assuming your gut has divulged every fantasy football magazine your local supermarket has to offer, and knowledge of just some plain old football, it will be your guiding light throughout the season. Should you find yourself deciding whether or not to pull the trigger on a mid-season trade, always go with your gut and NOT on upside. I am going to say that again. Do not go through with a trade because of the upside your receiving. Do not do it. Gut > Upside. Your gut knows what the deal is -- it’s been with you your entire life. It also doesn’t discriminate based on things like upside or money. It’s the most unbiased, straight-forward thing you have to go with in such situations, so utilize it wisely.
 
So study up, go with your gut and think outside the box! Fantasy football season is finally here. Yours truly will be giving you the only weekly commentary in regards to your obsessive habit that you’ll need to read. Solid waiver wire pickups, a rookie watch and strong match ups for the upcoming Sunday. So draft wisely, make me proud and stay tuned! The drought is almost over!