|
Four Downs with Dang & Doc
2009 AFC East Preview
by Brian Davis and Paul Hopkins
9/7/2009
With the start of the 2009 NFL season now within sight , Dang and Doc are beginning a week by week preview of each of the Divisions in the NFL (with a week off to look at the start of the college football year). This week they look at the AFC East. Seen by many going into 2008 as the most predictable division in football, it turned out to be anything but. Heading into week 17, three teams could have won the division. In the end, the Dolphins reversed their 1-15 2007 record and came out on top. The East has seen each team make some major moves in the off-season and the division is going to be one of the most intriguing in the coming year.
 The New England Patriots have not improved their defence sufficiently to be serious contenders to get back to the SuperBowl.
 DANG FACT !. Whilst the Patriots addressed needs on the Defensive line and secondary in the draft, their failure to secure a top young Linebacker from the draft and free agency may well come back to haunt them. Paris Lenon and Tully Banta-Cain are most certainly not the answer. They’re going to be heavily reliant on Jerod Mayo to continue his form from last year, Adalius Thomas and Tedy Bruschi staying fit throughout the season. If these guys have injury woes or suffer dips in form, the Patriots will struggle. The front 3 are set and one of the best around, but if they aren’t backed up by the linebackers behind them, they may well struggle to generate the pass rush required, opening up holes in the Patriots secondary. I believe that they will win the AFC East to reclaim the title, but once they hit the playoffs I think their ageing linebackers will catch up with them and they’ll fall to their first opponents. Key for the Patriots will be scoring first and scoring early, relying on their opponents to try and force the passing game on them.
DOC FICTION ! Where exactly were the Patriots meant to be struggling? They certainly are not short on the defensive line. They were maybe short on depth perhaps but the addition of Ron Brace who often found himself overshadowed at BC by fellow defensive tackle B.J. Raji early in the second round is one of the best value additions in the whole draft. The secondary was also possibly a weakness so what did Belichick do? He went out and took a very smart football player in Oregon’s Patrick Chung and he got a playmaker at CB in the form of Connecticut’s Darius Butler. He had already added some veteran leadership and nouse in the form of Shaun Springs and Leigh Bodden, so that secondary is now looking an awful lot stronger after the slight disappointment of last year’s draftees. So we’re left with what is probably still a weakness in the linebacking crew. They’re maybe still a bit old at this position but even with with Jerod Mayo slotting in like he’s been there years and a nice little addition late on in the third in the form of USF’s Tyrone McKenzie and they’ve maybe not addressed it like they could. But they have unquestionably improved on defence. When you consider they won 10 games last year, they’re in no way weaker across the board and are back to being the team to beat in the AFC East.
 Adding Terrell Owens is a wasted move unless the Bills find an adequate replacement for Jason Peters.
 DANG FACT ! – I’m kind of a little in-between on this one, I’ll try to explain. T.O. is a playmaker and Offensive coordinator Turk Schonert will make sure that his new weapon is used in the right way, however Langston Walker is making the transition over to Left Tackle from Right Tackle. He proved to be a useful pass blocker in 2008 and he only gave up 3 sacks all year, but still needs improvement on his run and pass blocking, the key for next year though will be looking after his Quarterback’s blindside, he’s a strong guy though, so despite reservations of many, I quite like his chances of performing well next season but it will take time. At the Right Tackle position Brad Butler will be serviceable, but he is also switching positions, this time from Right Guard, Kirk Chambers should provide ample backup for both tackle positions, I just don’t feel that it is elite enough for 2009. On the interior of these two, the Bills will be starting rookies at Right and Left Guard positions, so it’s a big year for all five in a tough division. Despite the youthfulness, I like this Offensive line’s chances of making a name for themselves, BUT, I don’t think 2009 will be the year, for me, there are too many changes on the line to make it a smooth ride next year, so a season of re-building and they might well be ready to progress further in the 2010 season with the addition of a top offensive tackle. So, despite me somewhat writing off the chances of the Bills offensive line in 2009, I think they will grow stronger as the year goes on. It will be too late to mount a serious playoff threat though. We also must not forget that T.O is going to be drawing double coverage a lot of the time, so he’s going to buy space for Lee Evans, Josh Reed and rookie tight end Shawn Nelson to make plays. He will also help open up their running game, especially when Marshawn Lynch returns from his suspension. I expect to see the Bills also helping out their O line with putting a blocking Tight End on the end.
DOC FACT ! Because Trent Edwards won’t be able to stay upright long enough to find T.O. if they don’t. Peters was a pro bowl left tackle in the prime of his career and despite his dissatisfaction at his contract I think the Bills really dropped the ball in not keeping him around. And even when they did they didn’t really get what I would consider great value for a stud left tackle in the NFL under thirty years of age. Owens will be a great weapon to have and should open up the field for Lee Evans and others, but the offensive line has to be a worry for the Bills when you let your most talented starter go and don’t really recruit an adequate replacement, hoping that shifting Langston Walker (a competent right tackle) across will suffice. I am impressed with Levitre and Wood and feel they could be strong contributors right away but the loss of Peters leaves a big question mark over the most important position on the O-line.
 The Jets defence rather than the play of expected starter Mark Sanchez holds the key to the success of the Jets in 2009.
 DANG FACT ! Rex Ryan built his reputation on a mean defence in Baltimore and he’ll be aiming to bring that same toughness to the Big Apple. Bart Scott is a step in the right direction immediately. I’ll be looking for Ryan to be getting the most out of last years first round pick Vernon Gholston as well, giving them some much needed pass rush, creating chances for other free agent signings Jim Leonard and Lito Sheppard in the secondary. Calvin Pace’s four game suspension is going to start them off a little slower and weaker than they would have liked and may thrust Gholston into the spotlight straight away. Offensively, I see the Jets having to go with a hard nosed running game, using Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and Shonn Greene to lead a triple threat attack as they break Sanchez gently into life in the NFL. Not replacing Laveranues Coles will probably hit them hard when teams figure out their running game and start sticking 8 in the box against them.
DOC FICTION ! There are only extremely rare exceptions when a defence regardless of a QB can carry a team deep in the post-season. The Rex Grossman QB’d Bears of a few years ago being one such point, and even they had a helping hand in the special teams game by the phenom that was Devin Hester in 2007. Simply put, how Mark Sanchez handles his step-up to NFL QB will determine how far the Jets will go. You know Rex Ryan will have that defence at the top of their game with a very impressive cast assembled, in particular with the awesome Darrelle Revis and Bart Scott. He may even get Vernon Gholsten back on track. But it will all depend on how far Sanchez can take them, how well he adapts and how quickly he can limit the mistakes he will inevitably make. As I say, with the defence being on the verge of becoming one of the top units in the league if Sanchez can manage the offence, not turnover the ball and do enough to make them functional and effective then the Jets can go far. If he can’t, with the division they are in I cannot see them getting out of the East.
 The Miami Dolphins will not retain their AFC East crown this year.
 DANG FACT ! A certain Mr T Brady is back in New England and even with Matt Cassell steering that particular ship last season they still had a shout of winning the division come week 17. Brady being back and staying fit will mean that that the Patriots will top the East next season. The Dolphins are rewarded for going 11-5 last season, turning around their disasterous 1-15 2007 season, with next season’s toughest schedule including an opener in Atlanta, followed up by a visit from the Colts, then a trip to San Diego to open the first three weeks. When the Saints have marched into Miami in Week 7 they then face 4 road games in 5 weeks, three to their divisional rivals and one to Carolina, with a home match up with Florida rival Tampa Bay sandwiched right in the middle. Miami finish their season with trips to Jacksonville and Tennessee, before visits from the fast improving Texans and then the Super Bowl Champion Steelers. Ouch! On paper, the team has improved both offensively and defensively with Pat White certain to add some extra flair to the Wild Cat formation. Jason Taylor may deflect some attention from Joey Porter. New additions to the secondary, rookies Vontae Davis and Sean Smith and free agent Gibril Wilson will be sure to have a busy time of it in their new starts in Miami.
DOC FACT ! It’s such a tight division I don’t think there is any cast iron certainties, and the Dolphins are certainly heading in the right direction, building on their surprise success last year. But if anything there might be a slight regression this year. Therefore I’m going to back against the Dolphins because I think there are two teams that are better than them in the division and they both are not going to slip up this year like last. Last year the Patriots were without the best QB in the league and the Jets, well, they slipped away under the Peter Pan of the NFL. It’s unlikely that both teams will face such difficulties this year and with Rex Ryan I believe the Jets will be mightily tough to play. It’s not a knock on the Fins but being honest I can’t see them finishing higher than third in the East in 2009. The Pats and the Jets should duke it out for top spot, the Jets and the Fins battle for second if the Pats pull away and the Bills are sadly, destined to be basement dwellers in 2009, leading to Dick Jauron finally being given his marching orders.
|
