It’s finally here! The 2009 NCAA season kicks off this weekend and in anticipation of four and a half months of ups and downs as the college football season winds itself towards January, Dang and Doc give their predictions for the 2009 campaign.
Your National Championship game will be between who, and who will be victorious?
DANGFLORIDA v OKLAHOMA FLORIDA WIN – It might sound a cop out, clichd, or boring, but the fact is these two are favourites for this game for a reason; they are the best two teams in College Football right now. They both have a Heisman winning quarterback each. This is what the National Championship should be all about. Oklahoma was able to run up points on most teams last season. They’ll continue to do so in 2009 despite four big losses on its Offensive line. They were then liable to also give up many in return, some may argue that a lot of these points came when games were already out of reach, but it must still be a slight concern for ‘Sooner fans, but the Defence look improved and return a number of 2008’s starters for this campaign. The Sooners will gain revenge on the Longhorn’s this season and both they and Florida should go to Pasadena unbeaten, but they then have to make Tebow make errors, if they don’t then I don’t think it will be quite enough. The Gator’s are still loaded with weapons on both sides of the ball. They are the most complete team in College football. It will simply be down to this that they sneak out another victory for the second year in a row.
DOCFLORIDA v TEXAS – TEXAS WIN Florida seems to be the universal lock to make the National Championship game again, and you won’t get any argument from me to the contrary. They are loaded with talent from top to bottom, armed with the best player in college football today Tim Tebow, and an entire defence returning. The SEC remains an arduous task to get through, but I only anticipate a real challenge coming in the SEC Championship game against either LSU or Alabama, both of whom are going to be relying on inexperienced QB’s. So the Gators are certainties to go to yet another National Championship game. Their opponents will emerge from the Big XII South, and the game will be between the two teams who probably should have been here in 2008 also. The Longhorns were robbed of the opportunity to get to this game after the peculiarities of the BCS saw them ranked behind a team they comfortably beat. Mack Brown has been here before, and now he has a QB with whom he is as equally comfortable as he was the last time he won the National title. The Longhorns have a loaded roster as always and once they overcome Oklahoma and their inexperienced offensive line should have a clear run to January. They’re due a return to the Rose Bowl National Championship game, and like last time they will go in underdogs but emerge from a classic, victorious.
Your BSC busting team in 2009 is:
DANGTCU – Following a thoroughly entertaining Poinsettia Bowl win against fellow BCS Buster candidates Boise State, the Horned Frogs will be looking to go one better now. Averaging 220 rushing yards per game in 2008, TCU return the majority of its offensive starters including a brute of an offensive line, determined to increase that average. A rotation of 5 Running backs will see them possibly even exceed that number this year. That Offensive line will also be sure to help out budding Quarterback star-in-the-making Andy Dalton. Last year’s Nation leading Defence who led the lead in averaging only 217 yards total offence against and a very stingy 47 yards rushing conceded per game will remain as strong as ever, despite its losses. Only 4 of that nation leading defence return, but expect big things of new Linebacker starter Daryl Washington, who will line up as one of only 2 Linebackers in their 4-2-5 system. The team as a whole is being touted as one of the fastest they’ve ever put together. They may well have to go unbeaten to make a BCS game. Road games at both Clemson and BYU will see that challenge pushed to its limits.
DOCBOISE STATE The Broncos will make a statement of intent on the first day of the season, by overcoming the fancied Oregon Ducks on the smurf turf. From there, the usual WAC team who creeps onto the big boys table will come from Boise. Chris Peterson has managed to recruit so well that key losses across the board that the Broncos suffered most notably talismanic RB Ian Johnson, will not be missed. At QB Kellen Moore plays beyond his years and is only entering his sophomore season. He plays behind a very strong offensive line who gives him time with the ball in his hands to make plays something all QB’s need. Jeremy Avery will step into Johnson’s boots and more than ensure continuity. On the defensive side of the ball, two key losses in the linebacking crew are offset by the return of a young but talented defensive line and a strong secondary. For me, the Broncos are this year’s underdogs and I wouldn’t completely rule out a re-match against Oklahoma come January.
Your Heisman trophy will be:
DANG JAHVID BEST – Let’s hear it for the underdog! Let’s hear it for some love outside of USC in the PAC10 and let’s hear some love for the non quarterback’s and somebody not called Tebow, Bradford, or McCoy! OK, so I’m homering up straight away, but so what, I love Jahvid Best. Best will have to put together an even better season than he did in 2008 for this to happen though. He’ll need to remain injury free and Cal will likely have to win the PAC10 to be really in the consideration come December in New York. Maybe then the rest of the nation will sit up and take note of what actually does go on over on the West Coast, that doesn’t involve the letters US and C, of course, they then have the East Coast bias that will come into play as well come voting time, this is why Cal has to really stand up to the plate and be counted in 2009. Best is a difference maker. He’s one of the fastest guys, if not the fastest, I have ever seen on a football field. He ran for 1580 yards with 15 TD’s in 2008, missing one whole game and part of three games in the process, posting the fifth highest total in the country with an average of 131 yards per game at the same time. If he can up that to around 2000 yards and nearer 20 TD’s, he should be in with a huge shout.
DOCCOLT MCCOY McCoy was arguably wronged by his third place finish in 2008 as, in my view the least deserving of the three candidates Sam Bradford snuck in and won the trophy. But I expect that wrong to be righted this year in the Longhorns year. Having Jordan Shipley return after having a sixth year of eligibility granted gives McCoy his most trusted weapon. Bradford enjoyed the luxury of an almost impenetrable offensive line in 2008. But they are now gone and much as they will still have a lot of talent to protect him, he will be under more pressure and won’t be able to rack the points up on poor sides like he did in 2008 to boost his campaign. Tebow is a phenom, simple as that and as I’ve said before if I’m an NFL GM I get him next year. But this will be McCoy’s year. What happened last year seems to have made him more determined to take the Longhorns all the way in 2009 and with the strong showing I expect from Texas he will be up there as the leading candidate again. And if all else fails, it’s common knowledge that the voters tend not to favour repeat winners. So no matter how much Tebow is probably the best player in college football right now, I think they even the score and give the three runaway favourites one each on graduation.
Your Heisman trophy dark horse candidate is:
DANGJEVAN SNEAD – Another #4 for me. Possibly less of a dark horse than Jahvid Best but outside the Big 3 (which include two former winners) but good enough in my eyes, that if he has a sensational season putting up around 4000 yards and a higher completion rate than last year, then he’s an outside chance. The main problem is that Tebow is also in the SEC. This will no doubt hinder him, but should something, anything go wrong with Tebow then Snead will be there. Snead’s decision making was superb in the run-in last year, getting the ball into where only his receivers would get it, racking up 26 TD’s over the season, including a 3 Touchdown Bowl win over the Longhorn conquering Texas Tech Red Raiders. Snead has a great supporting cast around him. He also has a coach in Houston Nutt that can put him in winning positions as well as a reasonably friendly schedule, which could really thrust him into the National spotlight. Ole Miss, like Cal above, really has to overturn the perennial favourites within their division to have any real shot of their guy making New York in December. When it comes to the 2010 draft, I think Snead has what it takes to become one of the first two Quarterbacks taken.
DOCDEZ BRYANT It’s hard to identify any major dark horses when the three most obvious candidates, the top three from 2008 and two previous winners are all returning for their senior seasons. A wide receiver hasn’t won the Heisman since 1991, and won’t again this year, but if a non-QB is going to force his way into contention I believe it will be Bryant. Bryant had 18 TD’s last year which left him second overall nationally. But he has multiple opportunities to showcase himself for the national audience starting with the big game against Georgia in week one where I expect him to announce his candidature in style. Of course he has to beat out other candidates on his own team. If Bryant has a big year than equally his QB Zach Robinson is inevitably going to have a big year too. Bryant can also help his case on the punt return front and if it all clicks for him, he might well push a strong campaign and get himself an invite to New York City in December.
OVERTIME!
The most interesting story to watch in 2009 will be:
DANGCharlie Weis’ hot-seat in Notre Dame – All the talk seems to be that if Weis doesn’t deliver a BCS Bowl this year, then he’s out on his ear in South Bend. The odds on him reaching one are looking good though. USC will almost likely result in a 1 in the Loss column. Michigan State will no doubt cause problems but after that, it’s almost plain sailing, Pitt may also provide another stumbling block in the run-in. They have to at least get to that USC game unbeaten. It will be how they rebound from the defeat or build on the momentum from a victory into Bowl season. It really could be the make or break point of this team, for such a big rivalry game as well, it’s sure to be one that’s not to be missed and if Notre Dame can get the win and go undefeated or a minimum 11-1, then they will deserve their BCS bowl. Weis finally has a loaded roster, so if they do play in a BCS Bowl then it won’t be like his first two years in charge, they’ll have a legitimate shot at it. Whether they deserve top 25 status at this moment in time is a debate that has taken place since the top 25 was announced. I’m of the opinion that we should at least see 2, maybe even 3 weeks of the season in the bag before the vote takes place.
DOCTENNESSEE Lane Kiffin has seemingly been upsetting every in sight since his appointment at the Vols. After his unceremonious dumping by Al Davis how Lane got on was always going to be of considerable interest. However, he has done anything but keep a low profile since then, riling Urban Meier, Steve Spurrier thus setting out his stall to re-assert the programme after a few years down when the likes of Florida and LSU ruled the roost. Bringing his veteran father over to marshal the defence will also be fascinating to watch how he moulds the defence, led by the much-publicised Heisman candidate, Eric Berry. Added intrigue for me comes from actually seeing how Kiffin will coach. He was a relative unknown when he was plucked from USC to go to the Raiders and didn’t have a great deal of pedigree behind him. At the Raiders he began to get some respect but in the shadow of Al Davis again, you wonder how much control he had. Therefore for me, it becomes interesting to see how he plays this in 2009. Being in the SEC means that Kiffin will be the focus of much attention for considerable parts of the season. Father and son could have a big say in how the college season plays out.
The biggest letdown of 2009 will be:
DANGOREGON – The Ducks are riding the pre-season hype and a top 15 pre-season ranking right now, but if you assess the facts a little closer, they look weaker than they were in 2008. They may well have an established Quarterback in Jeremiah Masoli, who is capable of making plays with his feet and has developed his passing technique, (which was clear to see in the tail end of the 2008 season) and one of the best running backs in the nation in LeGarrette Blount, but with no established receivers and an inexperienced Offensive line, they can’t carry the team all by themselves. The Offensive line gelling early is crucial to the season, likewise the receivers, somebody is going to have to step up and make a name for their-selves very early on. I certainly don’t think the Ducks will be averaging 41.9 points per game again and they may well become a bit one dimensional, something that Cal, USC and the Beavers will be prepared for by stacking the box, forcing Masoli to pass, certainly with Cal and USC’s secondary, that’s a dangerous game to play. The defense may again let them down. There are question marks over the interior of the line, so the linebackers will be mopping up a lot of what they miss. Can the secondary improve enough to carry this team to double digit wins? I’m not convinced. The opening schedule looks pretty tough, they start with a very exciting opener on the road on the Smurf Turf in Boise State, another crucial game which could well shape the Ducks season one way or another.
DOCOKLAHOMA OK, ok… I expect there to be cries when people read this. But truth be told I found it very hard to come up with a team that I don’t think will perform all that strongly this year that hasn’t been predicted somewhere or other in the media ahead of the season. So why Oklahoma (except for the obvious reason!) I hear you say? Well, their strength last season was the offensive line. It was big, it was nasty and it was almost impenetrable. But now it is not there anymore. Sam Bradford still has the best TE in college football in Jermaine Gresham, a strong running tandem but his receiving options are not as good. On defence, Gerald McCoy returns but they have losses elsewhere. For a team whose fanbase expects a run at the National Championship every year, they may end up disappointed in 2009. Like it or not this is going to be a ‘down year’ by Oklahoma standards. The big question is for me, whichever Bowl they end up in whether they can end their miserable run. And as mentioned earlier I see their old friends Boise State in their future! Other teams I fully expect to have a down season include the likes Missouri now that Daniel, Maclin and Coffman have moved onto the big leagues, Cincinnati will suffer through the loss of their star defensive pairing to the Cowboys, the Red Raiders of Texas Tech still have the mad genius on the sidelines but without Harrell and Crabtree will inevitably suffer. And what about Penn State? Back to stay according to some, over-hyped according to others. Only time will tell though I fancy them to run Ohio State close in the Big Ten and potentially end up in the BCS.
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Your National Championship game will be between who, and who will be victorious?
DANG FLORIDA v OKLAHOMA FLORIDA WIN – It might sound a cop out, clichd, or boring, but the fact is these two are favourites for this game for a reason; they are the best two teams in College Football right now. They both have a Heisman winning quarterback each. This is what the National Championship should be all about. Oklahoma was able to run up points on most teams last season. They’ll continue to do so in 2009 despite four big losses on its Offensive line. They were then liable to also give up many in return, some may argue that a lot of these points came when games were already out of reach, but it must still be a slight concern for ‘Sooner fans, but the Defence look improved and return a number of 2008’s starters for this campaign. The Sooners will gain revenge on the Longhorn’s this season and both they and Florida should go to Pasadena unbeaten, but they then have to make Tebow make errors, if they don’t then I don’t think it will be quite enough. The Gator’s are still loaded with weapons on both sides of the ball. They are the most complete team in College football. It will simply be down to this that they sneak out another victory for the second year in a row.
Your BSC busting team in 2009 is:
DANG TCU – Following a thoroughly entertaining Poinsettia Bowl win against fellow BCS Buster candidates Boise State, the Horned Frogs will be looking to go one better now. Averaging 220 rushing yards per game in 2008, TCU return the majority of its offensive starters including a brute of an offensive line, determined to increase that average. A rotation of 5 Running backs will see them possibly even exceed that number this year. That Offensive line will also be sure to help out budding Quarterback star-in-the-making Andy Dalton. Last year’s Nation leading Defence who led the lead in averaging only 217 yards total offence against and a very stingy 47 yards rushing conceded per game will remain as strong as ever, despite its losses. Only 4 of that nation leading defence return, but expect big things of new Linebacker starter Daryl Washington, who will line up as one of only 2 Linebackers in their 4-2-5 system. The team as a whole is being touted as one of the fastest they’ve ever put together. They may well have to go unbeaten to make a BCS game. Road games at both Clemson and BYU will see that challenge pushed to its limits.
Your Heisman trophy will be:
DANG JAHVID BEST – Let’s hear it for the underdog! Let’s hear it for some love outside of USC in the PAC10 and let’s hear some love for the non quarterback’s and somebody not called Tebow, Bradford, or McCoy! OK, so I’m homering up straight away, but so what, I love Jahvid Best. Best will have to put together an even better season than he did in 2008 for this to happen though. He’ll need to remain injury free and Cal will likely have to win the PAC10 to be really in the consideration come December in New York. Maybe then the rest of the nation will sit up and take note of what actually does go on over on the West Coast, that doesn’t involve the letters US and C, of course, they then have the East Coast bias that will come into play as well come voting time, this is why Cal has to really stand up to the plate and be counted in 2009. Best is a difference maker. He’s one of the fastest guys, if not the fastest, I have ever seen on a football field. He ran for 1580 yards with 15 TD’s in 2008, missing one whole game and part of three games in the process, posting the fifth highest total in the country with an average of 131 yards per game at the same time. If he can up that to around 2000 yards and nearer 20 TD’s, he should be in with a huge shout.
Your Heisman trophy dark horse candidate is:
DANG JEVAN SNEAD – Another #4 for me. Possibly less of a dark horse than Jahvid Best but outside the Big 3 (which include two former winners) but good enough in my eyes, that if he has a sensational season putting up around 4000 yards and a higher completion rate than last year, then he’s an outside chance. The main problem is that Tebow is also in the SEC. This will no doubt hinder him, but should something, anything go wrong with Tebow then Snead will be there. Snead’s decision making was superb in the run-in last year, getting the ball into where only his receivers would get it, racking up 26 TD’s over the season, including a 3 Touchdown Bowl win over the Longhorn conquering Texas Tech Red Raiders. Snead has a great supporting cast around him. He also has a coach in Houston Nutt that can put him in winning positions as well as a reasonably friendly schedule, which could really thrust him into the National spotlight. Ole Miss, like Cal above, really has to overturn the perennial favourites within their division to have any real shot of their guy making New York in December. When it comes to the 2010 draft, I think Snead has what it takes to become one of the first two Quarterbacks taken.
DANG Charlie Weis’ hot-seat in Notre Dame – All the talk seems to be that if Weis doesn’t deliver a BCS Bowl this year, then he’s out on his ear in South Bend. The odds on him reaching one are looking good though. USC will almost likely result in a 1 in the Loss column. Michigan State will no doubt cause problems but after that, it’s almost plain sailing, Pitt may also provide another stumbling block in the run-in. They have to at least get to that USC game unbeaten. It will be how they rebound from the defeat or build on the momentum from a victory into Bowl season. It really could be the make or break point of this team, for such a big rivalry game as well, it’s sure to be one that’s not to be missed and if Notre Dame can get the win and go undefeated or a minimum 11-1, then they will deserve their BCS bowl. Weis finally has a loaded roster, so if they do play in a BCS Bowl then it won’t be like his first two years in charge, they’ll have a legitimate shot at it. Whether they deserve top 25 status at this moment in time is a debate that has taken place since the top 25 was announced. I’m of the opinion that we should at least see 2, maybe even 3 weeks of the season in the bag before the vote takes place.
DANG OREGON – The Ducks are riding the pre-season hype and a top 15 pre-season ranking right now, but if you assess the facts a little closer, they look weaker than they were in 2008. They may well have an established Quarterback in Jeremiah Masoli, who is capable of making plays with his feet and has developed his passing technique, (which was clear to see in the tail end of the 2008 season) and one of the best running backs in the nation in LeGarrette Blount, but with no established receivers and an inexperienced Offensive line, they can’t carry the team all by themselves. The Offensive line gelling early is crucial to the season, likewise the receivers, somebody is going to have to step up and make a name for their-selves very early on. I certainly don’t think the Ducks will be averaging 41.9 points per game again and they may well become a bit one dimensional, something that Cal, USC and the Beavers will be prepared for by stacking the box, forcing Masoli to pass, certainly with Cal and USC’s secondary, that’s a dangerous game to play. The defense may again let them down. There are question marks over the interior of the line, so the linebackers will be mopping up a lot of what they miss. Can the secondary improve enough to carry this team to double digit wins? I’m not convinced. The opening schedule looks pretty tough, they start with a very exciting opener on the road on the Smurf Turf in Boise State, another crucial game which could well shape the Ducks season one way or another.
