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Four Downs with Dang & Doc
NFL 2009 Season Preview Edition
by Brian Davis and Paul Hopkins
10/9/2009
The time for talk is over. Thursday sees the start of the 2009 NFL season. Where all the big questions will be answered. Will Brett Favre make the difference in Minnesota? How will Tom Brady fare on his return? Who will emerge out of the pack as a contender? Can the Steelers retain their crown? Ahead of the opening kickoff Dang and Doc give their predictions for 2009.
 The playoff teams from each conference will be:
AFC
 DANG New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Houston – I have to stick with my earlier prediction of three teams from the South that make it to the playoffs in 2009 because it is the best division out there, I can’t go changing my mind now, even if my Houston Texans supporting friend is telling me they won’t make it! That would be the only surprise pick and they’d have to go a game better than Baltimore to sneak in. That will of course rely on part, that Joe Flacco has the Sophomore Slump but he’s re-connecting with Derrick Mason. The Mason news initially made me swing back in favour of the Ravens to make it over the Texans, as I believe Mason is that key to the Ravens offense and Flacco, but being good to my word, three teams from the South it shall be, with an improved Jaguar side pushing them all hard. Elsewhere in the North, the Steelers only enhanced their roster as the best in the league, with a very solid build for the future through the draft. I’ll be surprised if they fail to make it all the way again. San Diego will canter home in the West with everyone else seemingly trying to prove how disorganised and disjointed they are. Miami has a very tough schedule so it will take one hell of a lot to ask them to make the playoffs, the Jets and the Bills I believe will be at least a season away from factoring into an over.500 record so the Patriots almost win by default, but that O line is looking worrying.
DOC New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, Tennessee Nothing of a big surprise here. Indeed, substitute the Patriots in for the Dolphins and it’s the same six teams as was the case in 2008. Now that Tom Brady is back the Patriots should win the East at a relative canter, the Steelers remain the best all-round team in the NFL for me and rightly should be considered the favourites from the outset. In their division the Ravens will benefit from last year’s experiences for Joe Flacco’s development and should be thankful to God that Derrick Mason reversed his decision to retire. Without him, the Ravens receiving corps is weak at its absolute best. But they have a strong running game still and the defence is still there. Quite interesting to watch how it fares without Rex Ryan this year but Ray Lewis and Ed Reed remain so it won’t face too much of a drop-off. They are a good shout for a wild card slot. The Colts will be able to take advantage of the loss of Albert Haynesworth and the fact that Kerry Collins is another year older to regain the South from the Titans. But don’t expect the Titans to fall by the way-side, they’re still a very good bet for a wild-card spot, and they will be tough to beat in January but they need to get more out of their offence in the post-season. The Chargers will win the West at a canter also. From there it gets very interesting, and in my view only the Steelers look above the others. Any team can beat anyone on their day, and they all have relative weaknesses to be exploited. Again, in 2009 the AFC looks more compelling.
NFC
 DANG Philadelphia, Minnesota, San Francisco, Atlanta, New York, Green Bay – I can’t really do much than echo the Doc below for the NFC really. Ok, so I’m homering up on the West, but I don’t care. I’m genuinely excited about seeing whether Jimmy Raye can stand by his word and make the 49ers a 60% running team. If he can, then they will win the West, no question about it. In the East, possibly the best division within the NFC, I’ve stood by the Eagles all the way, so again, they’ll win this division; sneaking past the Giants, as the Skins and Boys continue to re-load. The thought of Vick, McNabb, Jackson, Westbrook, Maclin and a strong offensive line would make me quite literally weak at the knees if I were an Eagles fan. In the North, it’s going to be very interesting, like Doc below, the more I sit and think, read and hear about Green Bay, the more I believe this franchise has a shot. They need to hit the floor running in week one. They need to ensure that the running game is strong enough, and have to game-plan to the highest level to get two W’s against the Vikes. Down in the South, it’s all about Atlanta racking up back to back winning seasons for the first time in Franchise history, can they do it? Of course. It won’t be without its up’s and down’s but I am a huge Matt Ryan fan and as long as they have him, they’ll go places.
DOC Philadelphia, Minnesota, Atlanta, Arizona, New York, Green Bay Again, I don’t see a great many shocks or surprises from the NFC either. I wonder if in this age of parity we’re now seeing the better dare I say, well-run franchises become stronger and consistent every year. Anyway, I digress. The Eagles will win the East, just beating out the Giants. The Vikings, despite having the NFL’s biggest diva have too much not to win the North, but I think the Packers (and I get more convinced by this every week), who are I suppose my ‘surprise’ pick, are in line for a strong season, but will end up still having to make do with a wild-card spot. But watch out for them as they get there. I’ve been on the Falcons bandwagon to get their first ever repeat winning season and under Matt Ryan and with the additions they have made they’ll be strong. And finally, there are the Cardinals who as I said in last week’s NFC West preview will likely win the West by default. I can see the Packers and Giants as the Wild Card teams beating their respective hosts in Atlanta and Arizona before succumbing in two divisional match-ups against the Eagles and the Vikings who then slug it out for the NFC title with the Eagles nicking it.
 2009’s biggest disappointment will be:
 DANG Arizona Cardinals – Super-Bowl hangover alert! How do they deal with going from perennial no-hopers to division favourites with high expectations and everybody writing off the rest of the division? A big test of character is needed from last year’s Super Bowl runner-up. With that in mind and an ageing Kurt Warner, who is one injury from retirement and a loose cannon back-up in Matt Leinart, or is it Brian St. Pierre these days? If so then they could be in trouble. They were very lucky with injuries last season, this season, they’ll be a Larry Fitzgerald hamstring tweak or a Kurt Warner injury away from blowing up and the 49ers or Seahawks will capitalize on it. Even with their superstar receiving threat I just find it difficult for Warner to repeat his 2008 heroics. DOC New York Jets I hear people talking about the Jets as maybe sneaking a playoff place. But I don’t see that, and certainly not ahead of both the Patriots and the Dolphins. And it does simply come down to the level of play that they will get from the man under centre. I am a big fan of Mark Sanchez and believe he will l have an excellent career in the NFL, but he barely played as a starter in college and lack s the experience to do anything in year one in the pros. As much as Thomas Jones is a stellar running back who will alleviate the pressure on his QB, and Leon Washington is a great option to have as a change of pace back, teams are going to hone in on the running game to make Sanchez beat them through the air, and I can’t see him doing it. The defence will be strong, we know that Rex Ryan is a genius but until Sanchez gets up to speed they won’t be a major force. In a year or two’s time certainly, but the hype around the Jets for this season is going to end in disappointment I feel. I also think Carolina may flatter to deceive after their strong showing last year. Jake Delhomme may never recover from his Arizona meltdown. Plus their strength of schedule particularly compared to that of the NFC North teams will conspire to leave them outside the playoffs.
 The most improved team in 2009 will be:
 DANG Green Bay Packers Oh Scott McLoughan, why didn’t you draft Aaron Rodgers in 2005? Rodgers has what it takes to make it to the elite Quarterback bracket within the NFL. With a good crop of receivers and a decent O line, particularly the interior, they’ll return to the playoff picture this year. The running game is something I’ve expressed concern on before, but I can see defences dropping guys back to cover for Rodgers’ accuracy to open it up a little. Ryan Grant needs to improve to his numbers he put up in 2007 as last season was very disappointing. Dom Capers will oversee a move to the 3-4 defense with some hybrid chucked in for good measure along the way. BJ Raji should become a dominant Nose Tackle in the league, he was off the scale impressive for Boston College alongside Ron Brace. I’m not so convinced they have an easy schedule like Doc though, sure, they have a nice start, but when we get down to the nitty-gritty, road trips to Chicago, Pittsburgh and Arizona as well as hosting Baltimore and Seattle in the last five weeks will be a really strong test of character.
DOC Green Bay Packers Not hard to improve from their record of last year, coming as it did off the back of a home NFC Championship game, but I think the record was somewhat harsh on the Packers, such was the number of close games that went against them. They retain the basis of a strong offence. Aaron Rodgers has proved the Brett Favre decision was the right one, Ryan Grant can run the ball and they have weapons throughout the passing game. The shift to a 3-4 base defence under Dom Capers will likely define how far they go, but Capers knows his stuff and has a large number of personnel accustomed to playing in the 3-4. The top draft picks from 2008, in particular B.J. Raji are going to have an impact from the outset. Plus they possess enough ability to be able to play around with formations and get the best out of their respective personnel. They also (as will the rest of the NFC North) benefit from a weak strength of schedule, particularly in contrast to other NFC divisions with whom they will be competing for a playoff place.
 Superbowl XLIV will be won by:
 DANG Pittsburgh – So the best just got better over the off-season. Even in a very tough AFC it’s difficult to pick elsewhere. This Pittsburgh team might be the most complete in the NFL and one of the best that we have seen in recent memory. They should be clear favourites going into this season. The Steelers often don’t make big noises in Free Agency, but they sure know how to draft according to where they need help and starters in 2-3 seasons time, grooming players and preparing them along the way by getting them involved into the team gently. This year though, with a few of the senior guys in the trenches on both sides of the ball getting on in years and not performing to the usual high standards last year, (I’m looking at you offensive line), then rookie Offensive Guard Kraig Urbik from Wisconsin and First Round Defensive End/Tackle draft pick from Missouri, Evander Ziggy Hood stand a real chance of contributing very early this year. In an all Pennsylvanian Super Bowl, the Steelers will do what many teams this year will fail to do, and that will be to limit an extremely potent, Philadelphia offense, allowing its offense to grind out a victory.
DOC Pittsburgh At this point in time I see the usual suspects being at the forefront of winning the Superbowl. And to be honest, I haven’t seen any side progress all that much to challenge possibly the most balanced team in football. They have a well-balanced team, a formidable defence and an offence that whilst does nothing to blow you away, is effective and gets the job done when it needs to. Ben Roethlisberger is a Hall of Fame quarterback, they have a strong running game that works and if Rashard Mendenhall can add to what Willie Parker already brings to the table then they look a formidable tandem. There has to be question marks over Mendenhall’s ability to do this based on his career thus far but as we saw in 2008 the Steelers don’t necessarily need him. In the passing game, not normally the Steelers’ forte Big Ben has a range of talented options available to him, most notably the diverse trio of Santonio Holmes, Heinz Ward and Heath Miller. The offensive line, much maligned has got better, it’s still not ideal but they do enough to win. On the other side of the ball they remain very strong and in Lamar Woodley have a superstar in the making, if not already there. Dick LeBeau knows defence probably better than anyone and they won’t miss a beat. I’ll probably be wrong because teams tend not to repeat, but if it’s not the Steelers it will be the team that overcomes them.
OVERTIME!
The 2009 Rookie of the Year will be:
 DANG Aaron Curry – Curry impressed me greatly last year at Wake Forest and it was clear to see that he should easily become a talent within the NFL. Backed up by Leroy Hill and Lofa Tatupu, these three will be one of the most formidable trios of Linebackers in the league. Curry will get all the help he needs from these two. Even though I think the ‘Hawks will improve in 2009, the Defense could see some long period’s on the field, allowing Curry to rack up the tackles, pressure’s, hits and sacks, in a similar way to what Patrick Willis did in his rookie season. If Curry goes close to, or beats Willis’ numbers (174 Tackles, 135 solo) then he should easily win this award. He is also equally comfortable in both coverage and rushing the passer. I’m expecting big things of Curry, starting with this award. Knowshon Moreno could well be the winner on the offensive side of the ball as he finds himself in a decent situation where he’s going to be the load carrier and a probable check down option for Kyle Orton and should put up some very nice numbers.
DOC Knowshon Moreno – I have to say that there is nobody I think is going to break out and be a superstar. It was, after all, a fairly lacklustre college draft class this year exacerbated by the top three players in college football choosing to go back to school. But Knowshon is going into a situation where he will be given the biggest opportunity to shine from the outset. Denver might be a complete mess right now but even Josh McDaniels surely is not going to mess around with an offensive line that always seems to create holes for players no matter who is lined up at RB. Moreno was an outstanding back at Georgia and even though I felt he could maybe have done with another year, he’ll make an impact. Because of everything going on around him in Denver, I think he’ll be solid but for those looking for a spectacular breakout they’ll have to be taking a random punt as there is not one outstanding calibre candidate for me. At this point in time, Knowshon looks as good a bet as there is.
The 2009 Offensive Player of the Year will be:
 DANG Tom Brady. Historically, a Running Back’s award, particularly since the late 1980’s. However, the last two seasons we’ve seen Tom Brady and Drew Brees win this award. America’s darling boy Brady will bounce back and the voters will go all gooey eyed as the Patriot’s move swiftly into the playoffs. Let’s face it; if he stays injury free and the Patriots make it to the playoffs then he’ll win both the comeback player and this award. With probably the best Receiving tandem to throw to and some half decent Running Back’s to relieve some of the pressure, the Patriots should win their division. With Brady still being fit and a divisional title in the bag going into Week 17, he’ll win this award.
DOC Adrian Peterson Quite simply the best player in the NFL right now on the offensive side of the ball, from whom big things once again can be expected. I am not going to go over his attributes as they’re so well known, but I am going to talk about the circumstances around him that I think will assist him (even to a small degree) to achieve this award. As strong arms as Tarvaris Jackson has, and make no mistake he does, I simply don’t feel that teams had enough respect for it and his ability to make plays and thus didn’t pay much attention to the Vikings passing game. Not that that stopped All-Day, but now with the Peter Pan of the NFL under centre teams will, at least until they see how his arm is, have that bit more respect for the Vikings passing game. At the very least, Favre’s addition helps Peterson to a small degree, and even just that is something this monster will be able to take advantage of. Arguably he could have been in with a shout every year since he entered the NFL but I think 2009 might be his time.
The 2009 Defensive Player of the Year will be:
 DANG Whose is that huge shadow coming out from behind Ed Reed and Ray Lewis? Haloti Ngata, that’s who. Ngata will have an exceptional 2009 season. As The Ravens move towards a more 4-3 based Defense this guy will be all over every quarterback he faces. He draws double coverage in a 3-4, in a 4-3 including Terrell Suggs at DE, Ngata and Kelly Gregg back at DT and Trevor Pryce on the other side, this Defensive line is an absolute monster and is going to take some stopping. They will allow for Ngata to shine in a way we saw Fat Albert perform in Tennessee and for that reason, Ngata will win this award.
DOC Patrick Willis The guy is simply a phenom and as the 49ers begin to edge themselves slowly but surely out of the mire they seem to have been shrouded in over the past few years, Willis will really begin to get the true credit he deserves. He gets a lot but I feel he deserves an awful lot more. I expect a monster year in tackles. If he could add an interception or two to his stat line, I believe he’ll be a lock for this award. The most obvious and probably best defensive player in the league remains DeMarcus Ware. However, at this point he is no longer starting opposite a proven commodity. Anthony Spencer has to step up and at this point Ware is going to be a much more closely marked man than before. It won’t be a problem, as he’ll still put up big numbers, but he’ll be edged out by Willis.
The 2009 NFL MVP will be:
 DANG I’ll take up your outside choice Doc and suggest that Donovan McNabb WILL win the NFL MVP award. The leader of this year’s most explosive offense should deserve the recognition in the same way that Drew Brees did in New Orleans last year. With a very nice looking Offensive line and all the previously mentioned tools above at his disposal, then he could put up numbers somewhere close to what Brees did last year, that should be enough for him to arrant this award. Manning, Brady, Adrian Peterson will all be in the running, but if McNabb can overcome the Eagles fan-base and lead this team to the Super Bowl, then he’ll deserve this award, no exceptions.
DOC Peyton Manning I know, I know a really boring selection but for me it came down to Manning and Brady as the leading candidates, even with the big year I think AP will have carrying the Vikings. The people who win this award tend to be the golden children of the NFL and there is no bigger golden child than this guy. And so it came down to who will have the better season out of those two and (for some reason) I came down on the side of Peyton. I think Brady will be a lock for the comeback player of the year but I was a little concerned at the numbers of times he was taking hits in the pre-season. The first-string Pats line didn’t look as strong as it has in the past. Whilst he’s still got Welker and Moss I think the somewhat under-rated Pats running game will be taking on that little bit more this year, particularly with the excellent acquisition that is Fred Taylor. So Brady’s push for MVP is likely to be downplayed. So it’s going to be left to Peyton. There’s been a bit of turmoil in Indy (as much as you ever get turmoil in Indianapolis) but with Tennessee suffering through the loss of Albert Haynesworth as mentioned above, I think Indy re-assert themselves with Peyton front and centre once again. All that being said, he’ll put up big numbers again not 2007 Tom Brady numbers, but big numbers nonetheless. As an outside bet, I will chuck in Donovan McNabb’s name as a dark horse but in reality someone who won’t get near this award.
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