NCAA Scouting 2011 Draft Review – NFC North by Paul Emery May 7th 2011
Although the Bears won the division, it was the Packers who did the business in the playoffs and won the Super Bowl. The Bears will want to push on this year, with the Lions and Vikings both having talent and hoping to make a playoff push.
Chicago Bears
1. Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin. The Bears messed up a move up in the first round with the Ravens but still got the man they wanted in Carimi who fell a little with reports of medical and character issues. Carimi is a very confident young man who wasn’t shy about stating he was the best Tackle in the Draft and that seemed to rub some people the wrong way. However, I think this is excellent value at this stage particularly considering I think he has a shot to play Left Tackle. He tested out very well at the Combine far better than given credit for and is a real mauler on tape. He’s a nice fit in a tough division and I think he will start as a rookie and have a fine career.
2. Stephen Paea DT Oregon State. This is one of the best value picks in the entire draft. Paea had knee surgery after getting hurt at the Senior Bowl and his stock suffered as a result. When healthy I thought he was a solid first round talent. He’s a big, strong kid who does a good job winning the leverage battle but also moves very well. The Bears have released Tommie Harris and Paea should be able to step right into the vacant spot in the starting lineup as long as his knee is healthy.
3. Chris Conte FS California. Conte’s stock steadily rose in the post season. He’s a little similar to Clemson’s Marcus Gilchrist a Safety who has experience at CB and in a thin Safety class this was seen as being ideal. Conte can thus be utilised in the nickel initially and perhaps move into the starting lineup as a Safety. He’s a solid tackler who takes good angles to ball, but athletically isn’t quite worth the pick however, he should contribute in the nickel quite whether he can be more is a question.
5. Nathan Enderle QB Idaho. In terms of a developmental QB, Enderle has talent and I feel he’s a better pick than your T.J. Yates/Greg McElroy game managers. Enderle primarily needs work on his reads too often this year he tried to make the big play way too much. Against Boise State for example, Idaho couldn’t move the ball as Enderle was forcing the ball upfield into low percentage deep balls, ignoring open receivers underneath. He throws with nice touch and has a decent arm and release. If the Bears can get him to check the ball down more effectively, they could have something down the road.
6. J.T. Thomas OLB West Virginia. Thomas weighed in at 241 lbs at the Combine which was heavier than his listed weight, so he offers a little more potential than some of the other undersized LB’s like Lawrence Wilson or Brian Rolle. Thomas reads the game very well a number of times he made highlight plays on bubble screens and the like. He also has experience covering the slot WR in West Virginia’s 3-3-5 defense and thus projects to the Bears nickel defense but I think he has enough talent to push for playing time in the base unit a solid late round pick.
Overall Very Good
Carimi and Paea are two picks I really like. Both slid a little lower than expected, particularly Paea. I think J.T. Thomas is a very nice pickup on the sixth round I think he can push for playing time as a rookie. Enderle has the raw tools, but hasn’t put it all together however at that stage of the draft it’s a solid pick and given a couple of years could become something. Conte is the only pick I’m not completely sold on but this was a thin Safety class, so it’s not like I can say they should have taken someone else. Not a huge class, but a very good one.
Detroit Lions
1. Nick Fairley DT Auburn. The Lions reaped the benefits of the early QB rush with Fairley falling to them. Talent wise, Fairley I felt was deserving of consideration with the first pick in the Draft. However, there were concerns that he’s been a one year wonder and also rumblings about his poor work ethic. From tape I didn’t notice a poor work ethic he’s very quick off the ball and in every game he made big plays. He did rotate in and conditioning was a question but this is a wonderful fit for him as he can become part of a nice DT rotation in Detroit. I feel this is a great pick and although it wasn’t a pressing need, Detroit did the right thing here and it gives them one of the best DT groups in the NFL.
2a. Titus Young WR Boise State. The Lions then got a new weapon for Matthew Stafford. Young was another who reportedly had character concerns, in his case he was suspended for 10 games at Boise State in 2008. Clearly the Lions were comfortable with him off the field. Young will help out right away in the slot and in the return game. He’s a big play threat as evidenced by his big catch in the Nevada game which should have led to the game winning FG. His slight frame is a concern (174 lbs), but his big play ability on tape matches his low 4.4’s combine 40 time and he should become an interesting weapon for the Lions.
2b. Mikel LeShoure RB Illinois. Last year the Lions traded up to land Jahvid Best this year they did the same to land the perfect compliment to Best in LeShoure. The Illinois man is a big physical runner who at 227 lbs ran his 40 in the mid 4.5’s at the Combine. He had some big games this season including a 330 yard game against Northwestern at Wrigley Field, which included a really nice cut back run which highlighted his vision. Like the first two picks there were rumblings about character concerns he was in a fight with a team mate in 2008 (LeShoure suffered a broken jaw) and was suspended for one game for violation of team rules in 2009. However, reports are he has matured but it’s interesting that the first three picks for the Lions are have these character concerns. On the whole I like the pick it’s a great fit to pair him with Best and he should carry the load to allow Best to stay fresh and hopefully healthy for the whole season.
5. Doug Hogue OLB Syracuse. Hogue is excellent value in the fifth round. He’s a former RB who has only 2 years of experience at the LB position so still has upside. He’s 235 lbs right now, so could still use to get a little bigger and stronger (only 18 reps on the bench press at the Combine). I thought as the season went on he struggled more perhaps it was the schedule and the fact they came up against power running teams like Boston College and then Kansas State in the Bowl game where he struggled to get off blocks. I think he would be best at weakside LB he’s got good range and when kept clean he makes plays. He may need a year to continue to develop, but I really like his down the road potential.
7. Johnny Culbreath OG South Carolina State. The Lions finished off by taking a flyer on a raw small school Tackle. As mentioned in previous reviews, teams seemed to be taking a few more of these gambles in the later rounds rather than perhaps risk losing them to the UFL. Culbreath played Tackle in college but projects to Guard because of short arms. He was reportedly impressive in a pre-Draft visit to Detroit and may be someone who is a practice squad and down the road prospect.
Overall Very Good
The Lions traded up to get Mikel LeShoure, but in my opinion he was worth the 3rd and 4th round picks (plus swap in position with the Seahawks of their 5th and 7th round picks) they paid to get him. He will form a fine pairing with Best. DT wasn’t a need, but Fairley showed an elite burst off the ball on tape what a DT group they now have and that will win them games. Titus Young is a big play threat and Hogue offers potential down the road. They didn’t address the O-Line until the 7th round and will hope the lockout doesn’t go on too long so they can address via free agency however, I felt they needed to do something to keep their franchise QB healthy and it’s the only thing that prevents this from being graded as Excellent.
Green Bay Packers
1. Derek Sherrod OT Mississippi State. The Packers may have had some interest in their pick for teams trying to move up to get a QB but clearly they weren’t tempted if that was the case and took Sherrod with the last pick in the first round. Sherrod played in a run heavy offense and although he flashed ability in pass protection he’s still a little raw. However, in Green Bay he can sit for a year behind Chad Clifton which is ideal. He’s an excellent run blocker particularly when getting to the second level, where he shows he’s very athletic.
2. Randall Cobb WR Kentucky. Back in 2006 the Packers took Greg Jennings who apparently was too small and/or slow yet is now one of the best WR’s in the NFL. In many ways Cobb is a little like Jennings too small, too slow yet he just makes plays. Kentucky used him in the wildcat and in the return game just to get the ball in his hands. His Combine 40 time was only average (mid 4.4’s) and the remainder of his workout was actually bordering on the concern for an NFL athlete. This led him to fall into the Packers lap and they get someone who can help in the slot to begin and could be a long term starter. A very good pick.
3. Alex Green RB Hawaii. This was an interesting pick. Green wasn’t rated this highly by too many people myself included. However, while watching Greg Salas Green demanded attention as he had a couple of monster days, including against New Mexico State. He’s a one cut and go type a big back with decent speed (225 lbs 40 time in the mid 4.4’s). He only had one year of real production (only 453 yards in 2009) and even then his big game against New Mexico State (327 yards on only 19 carries) the holes were so big I could have run for over 100 yards (and Rich Eisen would probably beat me in the 40 yard dash!!). It’s very interesting that he was taken over similar backs in Roy Helu Jr., Delone Carter and Bilal Powell who I rated more than Green, so not the best value for me.
4. Davon House CB New Mexico State. On the flip side, this pick is excellent value. I’ve had House in my top 100 all year and found it amazing that a number of less talented and athletic CB’s went off the board ahead of him. It was a thin CB class and getting this kind value is great for the Packers. House has good size (6’0, 200 lbs) and ran well enough at the Combine (mid 4.4’s). He did have some problems deep particularly with Vincent Brown so perhaps needs a Safety over the top but he showed ability in off man and zone coverage. I think he has starting potential down the road and as such this is one of the better 4th round picks.
5. D.J. Williams TE Arkansas. I was very interested to see where Williams would go I had a sneaking suspicion he would fall to this area of the Draft and so it was. On tape Williams is a fantastic receiver he has reliable hands and has the speed to stretch the field and is can create mismatches. As a blocker he’s not the best but he does give solid effort and can seal the edge. The problem in NFL Draft terms is that his lack of height (6’2) does not project well to the TE position where they are looking more for a Kyle Rudolph type 6’6 who can stand up as a blocker. The thing that made him an interesting type is that Aaron Hernandez was very successful for the Patriots and in a copy cat league I wondered if someone would see similar skills in Williams. But clearly conventional Draft thinking took over and Williams fell. He’s a HB type who I’m sure the Packers can use and could prove to be a steal.
6a. Caleb Schlauderaff OG Utah. Schlauderaff wasn’t rated as high as fellow O-Lineman Zane Taylor, but Schlauderaff was the one drafted with Taylor waiting around for the lockout to end to find a team. I wasn’t particularly impressed with Schlauderaff and didn’t think he would be drafted. He is a waist bender, which gives him problems as he’s often off balance. He flashed some power, but not enough for me to think this is great value.
6b. D.J. Smith LB Appalachian State. Smith is a productive small schooler who lacks ideal height (5’10) and didn’t test put particularly well at the Combine (40 in the mid 4.7’s and poor overall work out). He played OLB in a 4-3 in college, but projects inside in the Packers 3-4 where his lack of speed won’t be a major concern as he only has to cover half the field. He will push for a roster spot as a rookie based on his special teams play he is a better player than athlete but athletically he’s not deserving of being drafted and as such it’s not great value.
6c. Ricky Elmore OLB Arizona. Elmore was one of three Arizona DE’s drafted. He projects to OLB in the Packers defense. He’s a tough, high motor kid who had 11 sacks as a Senior. His Combine workout was only about average but his shuttle time was very good, so the Packers clearly felt his ability to change direction quickly meant he projected well to OLB. He does play a little out of control at times being too easily washed upfield and with short 31 arms, he’s always going to struggle to get off blocks. But as a poor man’s Clay Matthews this is a solid enough pick.
7a. Ryan Taylor TE North Carolina. Taylor was the backup to Zack Pianalto but got himself into the starting lineup at the end of the season when Pianalto was hurt and was productive with 9 catches in the Bowl game and 11 receptions in the last two games of the year, leaving his total for the year at 36. He’ll push for a roster spot partly because of his special teams ability he has extensive experience and had double digit tackles in 2008. Could surprise given the chance has soft hands and was a reliable target for T.J. Yates.
7b. Lawrence Guy DE Arizona State. Guy came out early only to fall to the seventh round. He has a perfect frame for the 3-4 and flashed athletic ability to project nicely to the Packers one gap system. The reason for his fall appears to be the fact he suffers from ADHD, so teams were concerned about his ability to pick up an NFL defense particularly with the current lockout. However, it’s worth saying he has worked very hard to overcome this and like Jerrell Powe who had similar concerns floating around, it shows how tough the NFL is when they fell to this extent. Guy has a high motor and offers the potential to play inside in the Packers nickel or in the 5 technique in their base defense. If they work with him to help him overcome his ADHD as happened in College, this could be a real steal.
Overall Very Good
The third day brought them House, Williams, Elmore and Guy who I think can all contribute down the road. That kind of depth along with solid first and second round picks had me leaning towards an excellent grade, but I feel there were better options than Alex Green and Schlauderaff/Smith weren’t great picks for me. However, still a nice effort and a Very Good grade almost seems unfair for the Super Bowl champions.
Minnesota Vikings
1. Christian Ponder QB Florida State. Ponder was a surprise pick at 12 in the first round, but as it seems the Redskins wanted him, but weren’t willing to pay the price at 10 the Vikings without many options at QB felt they had to take him here. Ponder doesn’t have the upside of Cam Newton, but equally he doesn’t have the bust factor. He’s an ideal West coast QB he has a quick release and should pick up the offense very quickly. He has had some durability issues the past two seasons (shoulder and arm problems), but was 100% at the Senior Bowl and had a fine week, really cementing him as a first round talent. I’ve said with the other QB’s that the value didn’t start until around 20 for the top QB and I had Ponder rated as a late first rounder at best but the Vikings were going nowhere with Joe Webb at QB, so they had to make this move even though the value is poor.
2. Kyle Rudolph TE Notre Dame. Matt Ryan of the Falcons has really benefited from having a big TE to throw to in Tony Gonzalez and the Vikings taking a big target for their new rookie QB Ponder makes a whole lot of sense. Rudolph missed the second half of the season as he tore his hamstring right off the bone, requiring surgery to correct the problem. He had played through hamstring problems until then and was still productive. He’s not the fastest in a straight line but uses his big body well to shield defenders and has big, soft hands. As a blocker he distances himself from smaller guys like Lance Kendricks as he can stand toe to toe with DE’s and is a proper old school two way TE. I like Rudolph very much and I also like the pick Ponder will come to trust Rudolph as a check down receiver when under pressure which will be on as opposing defenses blitz the rookie QB.
4. Christian Ballard DE Iowa. Ballard was reported to have had a positive drugs test at the Combine and as such the second round talent was available in the fourth round. He played DT and DE in college but at 283 lbs projects to DE as a pro with the option to move inside in nickel defenses. On tape he flashed first round talent taking over some games but he wasn’t consistent at all and thus I had the second round rating on him prior to the failed drugs test. He clearly had the advantage of all the attention going Adrian Clayborn’s way, which makes the inconsistency a little concerning. Overall though, this is good value if they can light a fire under him and get him to produce they will have a disruptive force and that can’t be bad in the fourth round.
5. Brandon Burton CB Utah. Burton is another prospect who fell on Draft day he was valued by many as a second rounder. Interestingly, although my prediction skills weren’t anywhere near as good as Bob McGinn I still got this one right as I left Burton out of my top 100. In the Bowl game against Boise State I came away very concerned as he struggled hugely. I looked to this Combine numbers to project him and as a smaller CB (5’11, 190 lbs) he only ran an average 40 time (low 4.5’s) and also a poor vertical jump which would be an issue against taller receivers. Burton isn’t a shy type he’s very aggressive in coverage and looked good in press coverage. His aggression does work him on double moves as he can bite and give up the big play. Although I’m not super high on him, I think this is solid value and I can’t argue with them taking him off the board here.
6a. DeMarcus Love OT Arkansas. Coming into the season, Love was viewed as a first round pick. His senior year was full of inconsistency and finished with him getting completely destroyed by Ohio State’s Cameron Heyward in the Sugar Bowl. He has experience at Left and Right Tackle in the Arkansas offense, which has him flip flopping throughout the game. He flashed ability as a drive blocker with a nice initial punch. He struggles against edge speed at times although he does flash a very quick setup in pass protection. Inconsistent within a game as well as game to game. He has ability, but needs to put it all together. He’s certainly worth a look in the sixth round.
6b. Mistral Raymond CB/FS South Florida. Raymond is a tall wiry kid (6’1, 196 lbs) who was a former walk-on after Junior college. He may be tried at CB as he has some tools to be able to press but his speed is borderline (mid 4.5’s). He should help on special teams and has the raw tools to develop down the road.
6c. Brandon Fusco C Slippery Rock. I had three prospects in my top 100 that I hadn’t seen anywhere near it elsewhere, but I liked enough to have them there and Fusco was one of them. If you viewed Mike Pouncey and Stefen Wisniewski as Guards, then Fusco could even have been the best Center out there. He was dominant at a lower level of competition and although he struggled initially at the Senior Bowl with the bigger and faster DT’s he kept at it throughout the week and in the actual game I thought he controlled Phil Taylor very well. Clearly I love this kid and so it follows I love the pick. I think he will be a starter in the league for many years and in a few years time when looking back on this Draft class, I think this will be viewed as a steal.
6d. Ross Homan OLB Ohio State. Homan isn’t real tall at 6’0, but moves very well with a 40 time in the mid 4.6’s at the Combine. He came into the season rated as a mid round type, so is solid value in the sixth round. He struggles to get off blocks against Wisconsin prior to getting hurt he was making tackles, but after 10 yard gains. He’ll help on special teams but could push for more down the road.
7a. D’Aundre Reed DE Arizona. Reed was the third Arizona DE drafted. He didn’t start, but did see significant playing time in a rotation with Brooks Reed and Ricky Elmore. He actually has a better frame than either Reed or Elmore with longer arms and bigger arms. He also tested out better at the Combine than either of his two more heralded team mates, although his 10 yard split time was slower than Reed. He’s an athletic upside pick who flashed ability on tape. He stood out he was on my list of draft eligible prospects, but not my pre-season draftable list but on having a quick look at him he impressed and I went back to put more work in and think this is well worth the pick.
7b. Stephen Burton WR West Texas A&M.; Burton was expected to be taken earlier than this, so is good value. His Combine workout was fantastic and I assume it was tough to justify a higher pick on that basis. He’s heavier than most at 221 lbs but his straight line speed was OK in the low 4.5’s. He can make the spectacular catch, but did have some concentration drops. He was productive at a lower level (70 receptions as a Senior) he will clearly have to adjust to the higher level of competition, but could make the roster as a possession receiver.
Overall Very Good
This was a tough Draft to rate as although Ponder isn’t great value at 12 the Vikings had little choice in taking a QB and better to take one at 12 than have to pay through the nose to move up (probably a 2012 first round pick which might even be a very high one). Outside of Ponder, I really like what they did. Their later round picks all have talent and I think can push to become starters down the road. As such an Excellent grade was tempting, but even though I understand the dilemma they have in their QB situation taking any of them before the later parts of the first round is poor value and as I’ve downgraded other drafts because of this, I can’t keep this at Excellent unfortunately.
