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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – AFC East Draft Review
by Paul Emery
May 22nd 2013
Having finished equal 12th with Mike Mayock (and ahead of Mel Kiper) in the Huddle Report’s Top 100 rankings this year, Paul Emery now rates your team’s 2013 Draft Class.
Assigning Draft grades has never been my thing, although the last couple of years I’ve done so. But many have shown much comes down to opportunity as well as talent, so I’ll avoid them this year but I will give my general impression. I’ll give a player by player analysis of each Draft pick and throw in a few of my favourite undrafted free agents (UDFA’s) as well.
I did try and watch every draftable prospect, but in some cases that wasn’t possible (access/money or time usually!) and in those cases I’ll state that and make no comment, rather than trying to fudge it or saying it was a reach just because the player wasn’t on my list of prospects or something!
Buffalo Bills
The Bills moved down in the first round and as anticipated took a franchise QB, it just wasn’t the name everyone expected! They drafted three nice weapons for Manuel and added an interesting safety in Duke Williams. There is some risk in this draft class with durability and character concerns featuring heavily.
1. EJ Manuel QB Florida State. At this time last year, I could certainly have seen Manuel as a first round pick. Big, mobile and a strong arm it was clear he had all the tools. The problem with him is that he is a two read and run QB and has very slow eyes. I was hoping that he would develop in 2012, but that part of his game remained a weakness. He didn’t pick blitzes that well and still stayed too long on his primary target. He has all the raw tools and the arm to cut through the December weather, but I was left wanting more. High risk, high reward pick and if I were to project right now I don’t think he’ll develop therefore, for me, the second weakest pick of the first round.
2a. Robert Woods WR USC. Woods reminds me a lot of Greg Jennings not real big, not a burner but just gets open and catches the ball. His production was down in 2012, but with Marquise Lee coming on strong I guess that’s to be expected. Lee might well be a top 10 pick next year, so I’m not too worried about him being the number two receiver on his college team. He’s had some injuries in his career, but being taken this high I would expect his medical to have been clean. He should be a really solid pro, he might lack the high ceiling of a Cordarelle Patterson, but he’s far safer and there’s something to be said for this type of pick.
2b. Kiko Alonso ILB Oregon. On tape, Alonso looks very comfortable in coverage his hips are nice and loose, which I think was a big part of him going this high. I didn’t have in my top 100 because of durability and off the field issues throughout his college career, but clearly the Bills were comfortable with him. He’s not afraid of contact, but needs to work on getting off blocks better you’ll see some big collisions with him, which are fun to watch but he doesn’t win often enough. He’s a good blitzer, with the natural ability to time them up nicely. On his play alone, this was too early for me value wise, but he should be able to help right away in coverage.
3. Marquise Goodwin WR Texas. Based on his college production this looks a little early for Goodwin, but it was interesting in the Bowl game with a change in play caller he really showed up. He followed that up with a good Senior Bowl week and as expected from a world class long jumper (10th in the 2012 Olympics) he tested out very well at the Combine. He should be one of these strange beasts that is actually better in the NFL than in college and will be able to contribute right away in the return game. Perhaps a little too similar to last years pick T.J. Graham but that’s what happens when regimes change I guess.
4. Duke Williams FS Nevada. Williams was my number three rated safety, but I didn’t see him ranked anywhere near as high anywhere else. He had some off the field issues, which may have been part of that, but his tape was excellent. It’s the kind of pick which shows why Draft grades are a folly I would give this pick an A, whereas others might see it as a reach we’ll only know if a few years time who is right! Williams is a very active guy who packs a punch. He’ll have to be careful about 15 yard penalties, but that’s true for most safeties in this class. The exciting thing with Williams is that he showed some man coverage ability, so the ability to drop him down over a TE or WR in the slot is a major plus some scouts apparently believed he could play CB. I love his tape, he always makes an impact on a game and I love the pick.
5. Jonathan Meeks SS Clemson. I don’t have many notes on Meeks, although I saw Clemson eight times. I just about had him with a draftable grade, but in a deep safety class I think this may have been a little too early. He does have experience at cornerback, which is might be the reason for the pick. Very active at times as in the box safety, but his tackling was a little inconsistent at times. Despite the CB experience coverage was a question mark, so we’ll see how he develops but I’m not sure the value is great.
6. Dustin Hopkins PK Florida State. Hopkins looked the part of a kicker who would be drafted and that was the case. He’ll have to deal with a slight (!) difference in temperature in Buffalo compared to Tallahassee, but he has the leg to deal with strong winds. He gets excellent height on his kicks and has been dependable throughout his career. His kick-offs are of note primarily because of the way he approaches the ball, with a hand clap thing and then looking like a prancing pony! Interestingly at the Senior Bowl that was canned, but I hope he brings it back!
7. Chris Gragg TE Arkansas. Gragg missed time with injury this year, he came back too early and re-injured the knee, so ended up missing the end of the season. You could see that Tyler Wilson missed him and I believe it was part of his struggles down the stretch. Gragg is a nice receiver and should be a nice check down target for EJ Manuel if he can stay healthy but worth the risk at this stage. He makes every effort to catch the ball away from his body, but his hands don’t always look completely natural he will fight the ball at times. If he can stay healthy, this should end up being a nice value pick.
Top UDFA’s
A really nice class. The big name of the group is Da’Rick Rogers (WR, Tennessee Tech) a transfer from Tennessee where he had multiple failed drugs tests, he has a ton of talent but clearly no one was comfortable with him off the field (and considering how talented he is, it must have been bad) boom or bust, but for a small signing bonus, very much worth a look. Keith Pough (LB, Howard) is one of my top UDFA’s. A poor Combine 40 time saw him fall, but his tape was very good including at the Shrine Game. A leader vocally and by example I like him to stick and he could prove to be a top pick up. Jeff Tuel (QB, Washington State) had trouble staying healthy throughout his career but has undoubted talent. Minus the durability concerns he had enough talent to be drafted, so could stick as a number three. Brandon Kaufman (WR, Eastern Washington) was a rare FCS early entry, only to go undrafted. He has good size and was productive in a strong FCS conference (Big Sky) I’m not sure if he regrets his decision to come out early, but he stands a chance to make the final roster. USC CB Nickell Robey is tiny and presumably is why the early entry was not drafted. He’s not afraid to mix it up physically and even at his size I would have been willing to spend a late rounder on him good player, limited size wise but should be OK against slot WR’s have to manage the matchups though. Richmond has put a couple of RB’s into the league in recent years (Tim Hightower and Josh Vaughan) and Kendall Gaskins is the latest Spider product. Stands a chance as a sole back needs to improve his blocking to stand a chance at FB. Kevin Norrell (WR, Stony Brook) played on a run heavy team, but was used as a deep threat he has good hands and is a nice pickup.
Miami Dolphins
When the Dolphins traded up to the third pick in the Draft everyone was expecting them to take Lane Johnson, but the first shock of the day saw them take pass rusher Dion Jordan. Perhaps they like Jonathan Martin more than most, with third rounder Dallas Thomas at right tackle. On the whole this looks like a good class, including a nice value safety with their final pick. Like Buffalo, there is some risk primarily with durability.
1. Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon. We’ll see if they will live to regret passing on Lane Johnson, who has the upside to be a top left tackle. As a prospect in his own right, Jordan was a tough evaluation. The first problem was identifying him as those Oregon numbers are a nightmare to read! Then he rotated, plus Oregon would be up by 50 points at the half thus emptying the bench so you didn’t see much of him (I ended up watching more Oregon games to piece the puzzle together). Throw in the fact he was often lined up over the slot WR and didn’t always rush the passer, with a shoulder injury thrown in for good measure meaning he missed time and it’s a tough evaluation, perhaps why some media types weren’t sure about him. When he rushed the passer, the raw skills were there he’s tall and got too high at times, but he can dip his inside shoulder to turn the corner. He did make plays in the run game, but the advantage of being against a WR meant he got off blocks easily. A dynamic athlete with huge upside, but the pick does carry risk.
2. Jamar Taylor CB Boise State. There was a lot of talk before the first round that Taylor was going to go anywhere from pick 28-32, but as it was he fell to the second round. Taylor is a very physical guy who can press but has the flexibility to play off or zone. Matched up against a bigger receiver (Cody Hoffmann) in the BYU game he did a nice job of knocking Hoffmann off balance and disrupting timing. He does have a nice break on the ball in off coverage, but I did prefer him when he was asked to press. Certainly he has the talent to start right away as he displayed during Senior Bowl week and this pick is good value.
3a. Dallas Thomas OG/T Tennessee. Thomas was moved inside to left guard in 2012 and I thought this looked to be his natural position, but with a need at tackle it could be the Dolphins see him back outside (may depend if they can sign a veteran tackle). A shoulder injury meant he did not workout at all at either the Combine or his pro day. That often means a fall, but his stock held solid and indeed from tape I think is solid value. He does a nice job of sitting in his stance in pass protection and has a nice initial punch. Things do start to come unstuck when he has to move his feet more, so moving back to tackle would be a question for me. He’s not a great run blocker, I wanted to see a bit more nasty from him he lunges at his man a little too much and it’s not a focussed and aggressive punch, just a general lunge. He does have talent, but I see him as a much better guard prospect, so we’ll see where he plays and how it goes.
3b. Will Davis CB Utah State. Davis is an interesting guy. A first year starter, he started making some noise as the season went on and at one point was getting some first round talk. However, a so-so week at the Senior Bowl and an average 40 yard dash time at the Combine saw his stock fall. Perhaps this was about his level all along. He’s a bigger corner who has the ability to flip his hips and run with his man. He’s not afraid to mix it up physical and had a superb battle with 49ers fourth rounder Quinton Patton, winning some and losing some! He does get a bit grabby down the field and will need to adjust to the 5 yard contact rule in the NFL. He has a long frame, but a relatively thin build a bit like Johnthan Banks, although a little thicker in the lower body. He can press, but will over extend slightly, so just has a few rough edges that need to be cleaned up but he should continue to improve and push for a starting role in the next year or two.
4a. Jelani Jenkins OLB Florida. Jenkins was injured for much of the year, with a variety of injuries rather than one major injury (thumb, hamstring and then foot). I was very surprised when he declared early for the draft as he had pretty much zero momentum. Seeing him taken even this high was a slight surprise. In the limited action he did see, he did look athletic and one can imagine him pushing for time in the nickel right away. In terms of getting off blocks, he struggled but that seems to be the way the LB position is going (see Kiko Alonso in round 2). Quite difficult to judge him as he was hurt so much.
4b. Dion Sims TE Michigan State. Sims was another who was injured in 2012, although he played through an ankle injury it meant he struggled to cut and separate with his routes. Even before the injury, he didn’t seem to be a major threat vertically. He does have soft hands and catches everything away from his body, so should be a reliable check down target for his young QB. As a blocker, he needs to improve. He’s a tall man and doesn’t always do a good job of bending at the knees, so he can lose his share of battles. Oddly he gets low coming off the line to run his routes, so the flexibility is there. I think this is about for him value wise and I like the idea of a big target for a second year QB.
5a. Mike Gillislee RB Florida. Even right before the draft Gillislee was being mentioned as a top 100 pick, but I never had him anywhere near so I think this is about right for him, although it has to be said I am not a huge fan. He has some Beanie Wells about him as he always seem to get dinged up and in all but one of the Florida games I watched he went down hurt and missed some snaps. I guess I’m just not a fan of a RB who lacks top toughness, after all the hits aren’t going to be dialled back at the next level! If you watch the highlight reel he made some top runs and he is a good back, but I don’t know if he can stand up to NFL punishment as he didn’t really do so in college. You never know with durability sometimes players with no injury history can’t stay on the field in the NFL and vice versa.
5b. Caleb Sturgis PK Florida. Sturgis very much looked like a draftable talent, so this is sound value. He has a nice leg and gets good height on his kicks he did have a kick blocked against Missouri, but was struggling with an ankle injury and didn’t take any further part in the game. His kick-offs generally had good depth, but occasionally there are some shorter ones which he’ll need to eradicate. On the whole though, one of the better kickers in a decent class.
7. Don Jones SS/CB Arkansas State. With the trend in the league moving towards safeties who can cover slot WR’s, Jones is an ideal pick and indeed I was surprised he didn’t go earlier. In their nickel defense, ASU played two safeties and he would be over a slot WR, so basically a nickel CB and it appears the Dolphins are going to try him in this role. Playing in the Sun Belt he has extensive experience of covering the slot WR and he’s not afraid to get up and press. He’s a good tackler and can deliver the big hit. He’s not the tallest, but I think he can find a spot on the roster come September.
Top UDFA’s
It’s not often that a Division three college puts players in the NFL, but Mount Union has two NFL WR’s (Pierre Garcon and Cecil Shorts) Jasper Collins is the next in the mini production line and I thought was worth a late round look. He needs to hold up better against press coverage, but he has good hands and is a good athlete. Clay Belton (QB, Findlay) bounced around the college ranks, finally settling at Findlay he has a good arm, but needs to improve his decision making. Cameron Marshall (RB, Arizona State) has had injury issues, but was productive in 2011 and is worth a look. Sam Brenner (G, Utah) was a college left tackle, lacking the length to stay there as a pro he has good technique and could well make the roster. A.J. Francis (DT, Maryland) is a big, long 3-4 DE who can eat up blockers under rated he should push for a roster spot. Michael Clay (LB, Oregon) was overshadowed by Kiko Alonso, but is a solid player who could stick on special teams coverage units. Rob McCabe (LB, Georgetown) isn’t that big, but he was very productive at a lower level of play and will battle Clay to make the roster on his special teams coverage ability. Corey Broomfield (CB/S, Mississippi State) moved to safety in 2012 to make room for second rounder Darius Slay but he has talent and is worth the look.
New England Patriots
After trading up in the first round last year, normal service was resumed with a trade back at the back end of the first round. They also matched last years surprise safety selection with a player no one (not even top 100 champion Bob McGinn) had in their top 100’s. On the whole I can’t say I’m a big fan of this effort, but we’ll see if it’s enough to push them over the top to a Super Bowl.
2a. Jamie Collins OLB Southern Mississippi. Collins is a versatile prospect who should fit right in with the Patriots. He has experience at DE, but also as an outside linebacker in a 3 or 4 man front. He tested out extremely well at the Combine and it was clear with those numbers he was going to be taken around here. He is well put together in the upper body, but does need to get a little bit stronger in the lower body. Southern Miss were just awful this year and it is tough on a poor team, but he wasn’t completely consistent. Certainly against Western Kentucky (Stanford style offense) he got quieter as the game went on and didn’t step up to make a play and say enough. He does have experience in coverage, but results were mixed. But certainly there is athletic upside here and he does have pass rush ability.
2b. Aaron Dobson WR Marshall. Even in a non-AQ conference, Dobson’s production was not great but with the QB situation unsettled it was difficult for him. I didn’t see as much of him as I would have liked they didn’t appear on ESPN this year (and therefore not on in the UK, I couldn’t afford the CBS Sports College package), so it was YouTube and the Senior Bowl. He has good size, is a really good athlete and has had to make some spectacular catches in his college career. I saw a little more of him in 2011 and on balance I think is a solid enough pick who may be more productive as a pro than he was in college.
3a. Logan Ryan CB Rutgers. I’m not a big fan of Ryan and think this was at least two rounds early for him. I know most people had him in their top 100’s, but I just couldn’t put him in mine it cost me a point, but I just didn’t think anyone would touch him this high. Here’s the problem not fast enough to be trusted in man (mid 4.5’s) but lacks a consistent break on the ball in zone so I’m not sure what you can do with him. He had a number of passes caught on him throughout the season and in the Arkansas game he was absolutely torched by Cobi Hamilton (round 6 Bengals). He is someone who will get involved tackling wise, but I think he’ll struggle moving forward.
3b. Duron Harmon SS Rutgers. It appears that the coaching staff made this pick, over ruling the scouting department which is always a risky game (and is a sure way to de-motivate your hard working scouts). I didn’t have any typed notes on Harmon he wasn’t ranked that highly anyway, but often played off the TV screen and didn’t impact games, and I am guilty of not really making an effort to watch him as he wasn’t ranked highly anywhere. Just because no one ranked him this high doesn’t mean he can play, but my perception is this is too early although I will admit to not really studying him as closely as the likes of Duke Williams in this safety class.
4. Josh Boyce WR TCU. Boyce had a foot injury during the post season process, but still ran in the 4.3’s at the Combine. A surprise to some as a junior entry, but he already has his degree so the move made sense. Had steady, but not spectacular production, but like Dobson the QB situation wasn’t great for TCU this year. His speed was obvious, but they couldn’t always get him the ball. His hands are OK, but he did have a few too many drops. Now working with one of the best QB’s in the league, he may see better production than he did in 2012.
7a. Michael Buchanan OLB/DE Illinois. Coming into the season, Buchanan was rated by many as a first round pick, so it has been a real fall from grace! While his production was down in 2012, he still put up decent Combine numbers so at this stage of proceedings it was certainly worth a roll of the dice. Buchanan isn’t the typical Patriots edge guy, he’s more speed than power and indeed has a very thin build particularly in the lower body where he’s built like a CB! He really struggled to set an edge, particularly in the Arizona State game where they ran right at him repeatedly and with great success. Perhaps they can stash him on the practice squad for a year while he bulks up, but I have no problem with this pick even though his tape was poor this season.
7b. Steve Beauharnais ILB Rutgers. Over shadowed by Khaseem Greene, but still did enough to get an invitation to the Senior Bowl. He’s got long arms and if he gets a bit stronger could snatch a roster spot. He actually looked to have a thinner build than Greene who himself isn’t huge. Likely will need to show up on special teams to help him in that quest but a solid pick here. He did show he can get good depth in his zone drops, so could also push for time in the nickel.
Top UDFA’s
Ryan Allen (P, Louisiana Tech) is the highlight of the Patriots UDFA class a two time Ray Guy Award winner, he didn’t get much work with a high octane offense, but has enough talent to make it. Brandon Ford (TE, Clemson) had to take over from Dwayne Allen and had some nice moments, more of a receiver than a blocker. Zach Sudfeld (TE, Nevada) is another nice target tall and can stretch the field vertically down the seam. Cory Grissom (DT, South Florida) is a big space eater who fits the two gap 3-4 base defense should they want to use that system. Stephon Morris (CB, Penn State) is also a good kick returner, so his roster spot chance may come here. Ryan Osiecki (QB, New Haven try out) is worth a look as an arm talent must improve with his eyes.
New York Jets
I don’t have a problem with most of the Jets picks (although one I am not a fan of) but I think Mark Sanchez needed some weapons and he didn’t even get a late round athletic flyer at WR or TE (criminal in a deep WR class). I do feel sorry for Sanchez, he does have talent but with limited help it might be another tough year for him, now with another QB behind him for the Jets faithful to call for!
1a. Dee Milliner CB Alabama. Perhaps the Jets would have preferred Tavon Austin, but with a huge hole to fill at CB perhaps this would have been the pick all along?! Milliner’s durability concerns were much talked about in the build up to the Draft, but he should be ready to go for training camp. Like all Alabama CB’s, Milliner is very physical and his main adjustment at the next level will be releasing receivers after the first 5 yards. Many have struggled to adjust to this and it might take him a year or two to do so. He ran very fast at the Combine, so can be left on an island and is highly effective when up in press. He also is very instinctive in zone coverage, often reading the QB and coming across to make a play. Very physical against the run, he’s not afraid to come up and tackle. He’ll need to work on backpedalling, which is not something he was asked to do but likely he will be asked to press more often than not.
1b. Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri. Perhaps Tyler Eifert should have been the pick, but I don’t think the value would have been great (I wasn’t as high on Eifert as others). However, there weren’t any answers later on, so perhaps value should have been thrown out the window Richardson right now is a one gap penetrator, but he has the arm length to be a two gap guy. In the Jets base defense he actually fits nicely opposite Mo Wilkerson and in the 46 defense, which it seems they are going to use more he fits perfectly as one of the two three technique DT’s used in that system. So the pick from a fit standpoint is really good, although I have seen it panned in places. Richardson should make some noise right away, if he’s turned loose into one gap he should be as disruptive as he was in college. The question, as with all the other picks I guess, is perhaps an offensive playmaker would have been better
2. Geno Smith QB West Virginia. Before the Draft Geno Smith fired out a tweet basically giving the finger to his critics. Well, expect a few more tweets when it hits the fan in New York! Does he have the mental makeup to handle the fish bowl of New York? We’ll see. On the field I am not a Geno Smith fan at all. It seems the trend towards athletes at QB is holding, but at some point he’s going to have to sit in the pocket and beat teams. Right now he can’t do that and indeed he’s so slow with his eyes it will make things very easy for DB’s to read him like a book and break on the ball. Even in his more productive games (generally first half of the season) you can see slow eyes and some double clutches that just won’t work in the NFL. Highly productive in a spread system, much of that was down to the system and having two outstanding WR’s in Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. He has tools to work with moving forward and presumably won’t be asked to start right away, so could develop in time. But without weapons, I don’t know if Smith stands any more of a chance than Sanchez if he is thrown into the fire as a rookie.
3. Brian Winters OG Kent State. In terms of pure tape, Winters was the best left tackle in the MAC and bear in mind the number one pick in the Draft Eric Fisher played in the MAC too. However, Winters lacks the frame and measurables of Fisher and so goes in the third round. In a solid guard class, he probably suffered a little, but he’s excellent value here and should be a day one starter at a problem position. He’s a very aggressive blocker and has some real nasty to his game. He has very good technique, he had one or two problems with edge speed at left tackle in college but didn’t have the length to help him, so that was to be expected. The best Jets pick and one of the better third round picks full stop.
5. Oday Aboushi OG/T Virginia. Aboushi played tackle in college, but even at right tackle at the Senior Bowl he struggled, so I think his best pro position is likely to be inside at guard. He’s actually not a bad player, he didn’t test out that well at the Combine and together with a solid guard class he fell. At tackle he struggled against speed, dropping his hands with each step he took (chicken wings) which then exposes the chest and that’s one thing O-Lineman want to avoid doing. He is an aggressive guy and finishes his blocks nicely, which is always a positive. I was thinking perhaps he could stay at tackle in the NFL, but he didn’t perform well at the Senior Bowl, which put doubt in my mind. However, I don’t have a problem with the value and indeed he could be someone who sticks and plays for 10 years in the league.
6. William Campbell OG/DT Michigan. A defensive tackle in college, he was listed on NFL.com’s Draft Tracker as a guard and it does appear they plan to convert him. He started the year with a good game against Alabama, but was a bit hit and miss the rest of the season. He’s a big man and I think would be worth a look at NT in either the 3-4 hybrid or 46 defense. If the move to guard is permanent, then only time will tell, but it will a tough road and I’m sure they could have taken someone who played the position in college who still has some upside.
7.Tommy Bohanan FB Wake Forest. Bohanan is a modern day FB so lined up at FB, HB and TE. He’s not an overpowering blocker, but he can move people up the field and set an edge. He’s better as a receiver with natural soft hands. He has a smoothness to him running his routes, he doesn’t look like a burner but all of a sudden he is by you. He’s the only weapon drafted for struggling QB Mark Sanchez, something is better than nothing I guess!
Top UDFA’s
Mike Edwards (CB, Hawai’i) is the pick of the Jets class and in pure talent terms was worthy of at least a mid round placing. He was kicked out of Tennessee after an armed robbery arrest, which was obviously too much of a skeleton for a team to Draft him. But I would expect him to make the roster and if his head is on straight I think can be a starter. Rontez Miles (FS, California (PA)) perhaps got lost in a nice safety class, but he can play. Has experience in the box and in deep centre field at a minimum should make the roster for special teams coverage. Zach Rogers (WR, Tennessee) the third WR for the Vols, but was productive in 2012 and has a shot. Mike Shanahan (WR, Pitt) may be too big for WR as a pro, so could be a HB type has reliable hands and the ability to box people out.
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