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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – AFC West Draft Review
by Paul Emery
May 22nd 2013
Having finished equal 12th with Mike Mayock (and ahead of Mel Kiper) in the Huddle Report’s Top 100 rankings this year, Paul Emery now rates your team’s 2013 Draft Class.
Assigning Draft grades has never been my thing, although the last couple of years I’ve done so. But many have shown much comes down to opportunity as well as talent, so I’ll avoid them this year but I will give my general impression. I’ll give a player by player analysis of each Draft pick and throw in a few of my favourite undrafted free agents (UDFA’s) as well.
I did try and watch every draftable prospect, but in some cases that wasn’t possible (access/money or time usually!) and in those cases I’ll state that and make no comment, rather than trying to fudge it or saying it was a reach just because the player wasn’t on my list of prospects or something!
Denver Broncos
This is a solid effort. I’m not super high on Williams, but he played with an ankle injury in 2012, so I might be being a bit harsh on him. Webster was perhaps a little early but Smith, when healthy, could be a steal and King has some big play ability.
1. Sylvester Williams DT North Carolina. Williams is a nice fit next to FA signing Terrance Knighton. Williams is more of a one gap penetrator and will be free to do so next to the big man. Williams did not have a great 2012 year and indeed some of his tape was poor (e.g. Miami game). However, he was dealing with an ankle injury and so that may have been the explanation but there is still a little boom or bust about the player. He needs to develop more as a pass rusher, he’s overly reliant on his swim move. His initial quickness sees him get some wins, but he must learn to do more when that doesn’t work which will be the case far more so in the NFL than in college. It’s a nice fit, but I do have concerns about the player.
2. Montee Ball RB Wisconsin. This is a solid pick, Ball isn’t a dynamic home run threat, but he was highly productive in college and I think he will be as a pro. The only real concern is that he had a very high workload in college, so he has a lot of miles on the clock already. He’s very skilled at getting through even small creases, his vision is first class and he has quick feet in short areas. There are no sure things in the Draft, but he’s one of the safer picks of the round and he’s a nice system fit.
3. Kayvon Webster CB South Florida. I’d heard from Colan Lamont (from the V2 Press Coverage podcast I appeared on a couple of times they’ve had some great guests (so I dragged things down!!) and well worth a listen) when he interviewed Webster, that he might be a top 100 pick but I’d not seen that anywhere else. So Colan was on the ball more than any other Draft expert. Webster stood out at the Shrine Game and with a good Combine workout it vaunted him to this spot. He looked a bit awkward in off coverage and this might be why not many saw this pick coming I thought he had the frame to press, but he wasn’t asked to. This is a bold pick in a deep CB class, we’ll see how it pans out.
5a. Quanterus Smith DE Western Kentucky. Smith tore his ACL in November and did not workout prior to the Draft, so he may start on PUP or IR but longer term this is a very good pick. Smith was productive in patches, so the lack of consistency wouldn’t have made him a first round pick if healthy but he would have gone on day two in my opinion. He had three sacks against Alabama this year, beating D.J. Fluker for two but then there were a couple of games I watched where he did little. He has good size and can dip the inside shoulder to turn the corner, but needs to play lower on a consistent basis but it is there. At this spot, you can’t argue with the pick and indeed if they can get him healthy and find some consistency this could end up being one of the steals of the Draft.
5b. Tavarres King WR Georgia. King was highly touted coming out of high school and was pegged to take over from A.J. Green when he left for the NFL. King did not ever respond to that pressure and he seemed uncomfortable having to be the go to guy. What he did do consistently is make big plays, in most Georgia games I watched he would make one or two a game. He’s the master of the double move, I remember in 2011 watching Coastal Carolina’s Josh Norman (now Carolina Panthers) against him and King torched him for 2 long TD’s on double moves. He will drift out of games for large periods, so perhaps getting him involved early would be the way forward together with building up his confidence. He has tools to work with and big play ability, but I don’t know if he’ll be anything more than he was in college.
6. Vinston Painter OT Virginia Tech. I keep an eye on a couple of the main Draft websites as a way of pointing me in the right direction for tape study. I don’t have the time to scout all players just draft eligible ones, so I need some help particularly at the start of the year and then with late risers. About two weeks before the Draft Painter rose from nowhere to just outside the top 100 of one of these sites and with most games gone from ESPN Player I was lucky I had some notes on Painter, ranked prior to that as an undrafted FA. He bounced around some for Tech, including a stint at DT but started at right tackle all year. He still has upside and could even play guard. His Combine numbers really pushed him up boards, but he didn’t quite make it to the top 150. He flashed a nice first step on tape, which may be enough to see him stay outside initially. He’s a nice system fit and it will be interesting to see if he can develop.
7. Zac Dysert QB Miami (Ohio). I think the media as a whole pushed this QB group far higher than the NFL were prepared to do. Perhaps because in past years teams have been willing to make that reach, but I guess Jake Locker and Christian Ponder haven’t exactly set the world on fire from three Drafts ago so that was a cautionary example. Dysert was generally thought of as a top 100 prospect until the Senior Bowl, where he struggled and fell a little. As the Draft approached word was he had impressed in interviews with teams and was back in top 100 contention which turned out to be complete nonsense. I think this placing is a bit tough on Dysert, but I do understand it from an eyes stand point. He has very slow eyes will remain locked onto his first target too long and stare down his receivers. This got shown up in the Cincinnati game more than in the MAC. Dysert does have some tools to work with however he has a good arm and has very nice touch, I think partly learned from having to throw catchable balls to an average at best group of receivers. He has some mobility, but must set his feet before throwing when he’s rolling out. He will have a shot at the number three QB spot behind Peyton and Brock Osweiler longer term he might be someone they can trade for a higher pick, always good to take a QB late for that very reason.
Top UDFA’s
Lucas Reed (TE) and Lamar Thomas (WR) both suffered production wise in 2012 in new head coach Bob Davie’s run heavy New Mexico offense both are better players than 2012 suggested and could stick. Lerentee McCray (DE, Florida) was getting some talk as a top 100 prospect, but got hurt and his stock fell away but he has some pass rush ability. Aaron Hester (CB, UCLA) is a bigger corner who has some press ability. Quincy McDuffie (WR, Central Florida) is a very good kick returner and will need to make the roster on this basis. Manase Foketi (West Texas A&M;) is a transfer from Kansas State (missed most of 2011 with injury and then wanted to transfer), a college left tackle who projects best inside, but has talent. Uona Kaveinga (LB, Brigham Young) is a downhill thumper who should be perfect on special teams. John Youboty (DE, Temple) has talent, but never quite took off certainly worth a look in case the light suddenly come son.
Kansas City Chiefs
Outside of Kelce, Kush and Catapano this is one of the weaker draft classes for me. Starting with the first pick in the Draft, I was very unsure about Eric Fisher because he had some fairly weak MAC tape. Davis was an amazing back two years ago, but he got hurt and then couldn’t hold onto the ball in 2012. Johnson is an old school two down LB, which in the modern day NFL is a one or even no down LB! Commings and Wilson are OK picks.
1. Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan. Fisher was a difficult evaluation. This Draft placing is fair enough based on his post season performance he was superb at the Senior Bowl, tested out very well at the Combine and reportedly nailed team interviews. However, prior to the Senior Bowl I wasn’t high on him at all and even when I did some more of his MAC games after the Senior Bowl, I didn’t think he played well. I think many Draft analysts only watch two or three games and in Fisher’s case just watched the Michigan State and Iowa games, plus the Senior Bowl practices. I thought he was OK against Michigan State and Iowa, but they didn’t have any speed off the edge. Toledo and Western Michigan had more (despite not being Big 10 teams) and he struggled, particularly in the Toledo game where I thought he was poor at times. So, overall I just am not 100% sure about Fisher I therefore had him at number four in my OT rankings and if I had the first pick in the Draft I would have taken Luke Joeckel. Perhaps the light just went on late in his college career, but there’s too much tape of him with hands flapping around in pass protection and struggling against edge speed for me to think of him this high. He’ll start out at right tackle and long term that may help him, but Von Miller in division should give him problems.
3a. Travis Kelce TE Cincinnati. Kelce was my number one ranked TE, so I love this pick. I guess because I didn’t count off the field issues (he was suspended for the 2010 season) that’s why I had him ahead of Tyler Eifert when no one else did. With an unsettled QB situation, it’s unfair to judge him too much on his production but it did take off in the second half of the season and his college career finished with a game winning TD in the Bowl game. He’s a big physical Gronk like TE who is more of an inline guy than a modern day slot TE who can’t block his own shadow. He has soft hands and although not a Jimmy Graham level athlete, he still timed well at his pro day (before being sick!). As long as he’s OK off the field, I think this will be an excellent pick I really enjoyed watching him play.
3b. Knile Davis RB Arkansas. Two years ago Knile Davis was being talked about as a first round pick and rightly so as he was tearing up the SEC with some dynamic runs. Just before the 2011 season he broke an ankle, missing the entire season. There were flashes of his previous talent, but in the end he was benched as he fumbled far too often. He played very well in the Texas A&M; game, but fumbled three times and the next week against Auburn they only trusted him with three carries. If they can get Davis to hold onto the ball, then he is clearly a superb size/speed combination who can help as a returner and receiver. He can expect to be carrying a ball around with him even in meetings as if they can get that right with him they’ll have something but being benched on a poor team isn’t the advertisement for a top 100 pick to me.
4. Nico Johnson ILB Alabama. When Alabama were in the nickel Johnson wasn’t on the field and indeed in some games he played only a handful of downs. As the season went on, they looked to C.J. Mosley to stay on the field even more, so his playing time was limited. If he couldn’t get on the field in nickel in college, there’s not much chance he will do so as a pro. Therefore, Johnson is a base defense run stuffer and early in round four I think that’s way too early for this type of player.
5. Sanders Commings CB Georgia. Commings was suspended for two games at the start of the season (domestic violence charge) and that may well have hurt his stock. On tape he was inconsistent, he’s the type where you can see the potential but he never seems to play up to it. He ran very fast at the Combine for a big man, but doesn’t look that instinctive on tape. He does offer upside and so the value is sound here, but I don’t have a great conviction that he’ll ever reach his ceiling.
6a. Eric Kush C California (PA). Division two football is certainly different one of the games I watched Kush played left tackle in the first half as the usual starter was at his brother’s wedding! I read a Draft journal written by Kush and was very impressed clearly a very smart young man. My primary concern with him is his inability to anchor even at a lower level of play, he struggled at times. He resorted to using his feet to anchor (feet going back and out post snap) rather than sitting in his stance and using that to anchor. He has quick feet and indeed in his half stint at left tackle he did not look out of place footwork wise. He works to get square in the running game but looks a little different to the usual Andy Reid types. I do like the young man though and hope he can make it.
6b. Braden Wilson FB Kansas State. Was often used as Collin Klein’s lead blocker in the option attack, where he showed a very nice ability to get to the second level and engage his man. He needs to get a little stronger to help hold his blocks longer, but he could be used as a move HB type as well as traditional FB.
7. Mike Catapano DE Princeton. Catapano was a very trendy sleeper pick, but from tape study (two Princeton games plus the Shrine Game) I wasn’t a huge fan of his I was more of a fan of Rufus Johnson who no one was mentioning but went earlier (round 6, Saints). However, because of his athletic numbers I think it was sensible to take him here as getting him as an undrafted free agent might have been too competitive and ultimately difficult. Catapano must work on playing lower he’s bolt upright post snap and was controlled too easily. He does have a high motor and made plays from the backside because of this. He played in a 3 man front in college and I didn’t think it necessarily suited him might be best on the tackles outside shoulder when he can use that athletic ability. When he tried to play lower (generally trying to dip turning the corner) balance was a problem. He does have athletic upside, but I’m concerned about his tape at a lower level of play.
Top UDFA’s
The Chiefs had a large class and it was highlighted by a player who has top 100 talent. Tyler Bray (QB, Tennessee) had maturity concerns that obviously weren’t answered to teams likings and so the junior came out early only to go undrafted (a common theme and a lesson for next years class?). He has the arm talent to be special, but only if he wants it enough. T.J. Knowles (TE, Sacramento State) bounced around several schools before landing in the Big Sky a tall former basketball prospect, he has upside. Rico Richardson (WR, Jackson State) isn’t that big, but he stood out at his level of play. E.J. Epperson (DE, Mississippi) is a former FB who showed some potential at DE this year with his position no longer used offensively in a spread offense. Frankie Hammond (WR, Florida) made some plays at times and is worth a look. Drew Terrell (WR, Stanford) has some return ability and was good in the Casino Del Sol All-Star game. Former Notre Dame QB Dayne Crist (Kansas) will receive a try out he stood out at the Casino Del Sol and NFLPA Collegiate All-Star games he’s had injury problems, but has talent.
Oakland Raiders
I didn’t see enough of first round pick D.J. Hayden to really comment on him being taken this high, so I’ll leave that to others who had access to Houston games (Houston weren’t on in the UK at all this past season). The rest of the Draft is good they were able to pick up extra picks and had four in the sixth round. On shows like Path to the Draft you would think there is only one round, but every year stars emerge from day three and getting so many rolls of the dice should mean they strike it lucky with at least one.
1. D.J. Hayden CB Houston. I left Hayden off of my CB rankings as I had only seen a couple of cut up games on YouTube and I never feel comfortable with scouting that way. It looks to me as if he’s a playmaker, but can stop his feet because he has his eyes in the backfield. Certainly his pro day numbers were good and it’s a fantastic story that he’s back healthy after his heart scare in practice but I’m not going to try and fudge it, I just haven’t seen enough of him to judge the player or the pick.
2. Menelik Watson OT Florida State. Watson was taken a full round before Terron Armstead and I rated them the other way around. Watson looked athletic on tape, but did not test out that well at the Combine, so the athletic upside is not as high as Armstead’s. Far more raw than the Arkansas Pine-Bluff man as well, I think this is a little early but then some thought he was a first rounder so as with all picks, we’ll have to wait 3-5 years to see (society these days seems to demand instant answers, but in reality you don’t get them in terms of Draft grades). The main area for Watson to work on is pass protection his technique there is very inconsistent. He looks more like a right tackle in terms of feet, which is an area of need for the Raiders (my old small school favourite Jared Veldheer has done OK, but there might be concern as he’s never quite had that huge breakout year his potential has suggested was coming). Watson looked very natural getting after it in the run game and when asked to pull, moved much better than his Combine numbers suggested. He should continue to improve as he gains more experience and hopefully the Raiders can get over to Wembley for a game to give the NFL a publicity boost in the UK.
3. Sio Moore OLB Connecticut. I really like this pick. Moore is a highly versatile prospect who lined up all over the place in college, including at DE in the nickel from where he was productive. Not just an edge rusher though, he also has experience in space and looked very comfortable lining up over the slot WR. He also lined up in traditional 4-3 weakside and strongside roles, so the Raiders can do a lot with him certainly he’s not going to have to come off the field in nickel defenses. He looked very comfortable in coverage he did a nice job getting good jams at the line and can read the QB very nicely. Despite not having a classic frame as a pass rusher he showed some speed off the edge and there might be a niche developing for these shorter pass rushers that have had success in Seattle. He was a little inconsistent getting off blocks, more visible in some games than others, but with the whole package I like the player and therefore the pick.
4. Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas. I like Wilson, but in the end I left him off of my top 100 as I thought he may well fall on Draft day and so it was. The two main issues were small hands (so tough to throw in wet/cold weather see EJ Manuel (big hands) to Buffalo) and a poor 2012 season. I remember former Petrino disciple Brian Brohm coming out of Louisville off a poor senior season was unable to get back his confidence back and is now out of football. Hopefully Wilson can make it certainly he has the toughness to do so. He has a good arm, but must learn not to think he can fit passes into every single tiny window. He must clean up his footwork he took a huge step after receiving shotgun snaps (and I didn’t just get this from Gruden’s QB camp see my weekly articles still on the site) and that left him with a wide pass going into his throwing motion and accuracy suffered. In fairness to him, I believe he has already worked hard on shortening that first step. He only had one decent receiver for most of 2012 (Cobi Hamilton), so it was different to 2011 when he had Jarius Wright, Joe Adams, Greg Childs, Hamilton and TE Chris Gragg (who was hurt much of 2012). I think he might give Matt Flynn a run for his money and just maybe Flynn might be unlucky for the second year in a row
6a. Nick Kasa TE Colorado. A former DE, Kasa has 2 years experience at TE but still has upside. Showed flashes as a receiver can catch with hands away from his body, but chooses to body catch too often which I’d like to see cleaned up. Inconsistent as a blocker but he does have experience in pass protection and might be useful in this area. He worked out well at the Combine and given a little time could develop into a useful weapon.
6b. Latavius Murray RB South Florida. Murray is a bigger back who looked much better running in between the tackles on tape. His high 4.3’s 40 time at his pro day was therefore a little bit of a surprise although the burst was there inside, I didn’t think he would run that fast. I mentioned in one of my USF games that he would get drafted if he ran in the 4.5’s, so that shows where I thought he would be. Very good as a receiver and comfortable in pass protection, I think the pick is solid but there’s just a nagging thought as to why he didn’t look better outside the tackles…
6c. Mychal Rivera TE Tennessee. Rivera was overshadowed by Tennessee’s WR’s, but he went off against Missouri with a career day to show he can do it. It’s a case of trying to work out if the lack of production is just him being a bit hot and cold or there was only one football and two top WR’s to throw at (Cordarelle Patterson and Justin Hunter). He’s more of a receiver than a blocker in pass protection he didn’t look comfortable and he’s a position wall off type in the run game. Far more natural as a receiver, he has soft hands and gave Matt Elam some problems in the Florida game. Coming out of the shadow of some big time talent in college, he has a shot to be more productive as a pro and should help a thin group early in his career as a receiver.
6d. Stacy McGee DT Oklahoma. I kept reading that McGee was a good prospect, but he never stood out for me. Even at the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl he made one nice play, but was otherwise quiet so I’ve never connected with him as a draftable prospect.
7a. Brice Butler WR San Diego State. We don’t get many MWC games in the UK and indeed I only saw Butler in one game plus an All-Star game, so not enough to form an opinion I would be supremely confident about. He made one catch in the Casino Del-Sol All-Star game a 30 yard TD from Jeff Tuel he has a nice frame and looked quite natural but tough to judge on limited viewing.
7b. David Bass DE Missouri Western. I only saw him in the East West Shrine Game where he was OK but tough to judge on that limited basis. He reportedly had a solid week of practice, so hopefully he can stick.
Top UDFA’s
The was a fairly large class and there are some decent prospects. The pick of the bunch is Conner Vernon (WR, Duke) who was hugely productive in a major conference, but a poor 40 time at the Combine dropped him down boards. Dexter McCoil (SS, Tulsa) can get downhill and hit, he should be a perfect gunner on the punt coverage team. Sam McGuffie (WR, Rice) is a former RB who has some upside. Kyle Padron (QB, Eastern Washington) transferred from SMU and elected to come out early, like many this year that may not have been the best decision Deonte Williams (RB, Cal Poly) was productive in an option offense in the Big Sky. Adrian Bushell (CB, Louisville) transferred from Florida where he had some off the field issues he has talent and could stick.
San Diego Chargers
Sometimes NFL teams outthink themselves and go for players with great Combine numbers who actually can’t play football (how often is upside never realised?). The Chargers took three football players with their first three picks and all should start right away. Day three saw only three picks, but they found a QB with some tools to develop and a CB who could develop. A pretty good effort.
1. D.J. Fluker OT Alabama. With the top three tackles off the board by the fourth pick, the Chargers had a decision to make take Fluker or wait a round and take a raw prospect like Menelik Watson or Terron Armstead. They elected to go with the Alabama man and although athletically it’s perhaps a few picks too early you know exactly what you are getting with him and that’s worth something in this Draft class. Fluker is a college right tackle who projects best there as a pro. However, as he has very long arms he can perhaps get away with it at left tackle much as Flozell Adams did for years with the Cowboys. I think he’s more of an average left tackle prospect whereas he can be a very good right tackle so we’ll see what the Chargers do with him. He had a couple of poor games (Western Kentucky he’ll have Quanterus Smith in division to renew that battle and Tennessee) but he shut out Barkevious Mingo in the LSU game and indeed once he gets his hands on you, then he wins. He’s heavy footed and lacks the high ceiling of a Lane Johnson, but should be a day one starter and a solid pro.
2. Manti Te’o ILB Notre Dame. Despite all the catfish drama, the experts on Path to the Draft were sure Te’o would be a first round pick but here he was in the second round and the Chargers traded up to take him. Te’o was playing at a very high level for the first half of the season, including a monster game against Michigan State. His play did fall away down the stretch and in in the BCS Championship Game he laid an egg. He ran faster at his pro day than at the Combine, but was never going to run as fast as the likes of Zaviar Gooden. Quite whether off the field matters impacted his play I don’t know, but he’s a downhill thumper with good read/react skills who looks very comfortable in zone coverage. He has limitations and must improve getting off blocks (particularly playing in a 3-4), but the value here is good and he should start from day one.
3. Keenan Allen WR California. Allen was a big faller on Draft day, which wasn’t a huge surprise. He hurt his knee late in the year and then re-injured it so was forced to miss the Combine. Running out of time before the draft, he worked out at his personal pro day at less than 100% and ran in the 4.7’s. There were also rumours doing the rounds that he big timed team interviews I don’t know that makes him any different than half of the WR’s in the league though! On tape Allen looked like the best WR in this class and indeed not party to medical information/team interviews that left me with him as my number one WR this year. While not being the fastest even at 100%, he’s a big bodied guy and indeed he’s like A.J. Green, but with more bulk. He has a large catching radius, soft hands, can separate as well as box defenders out with his size. His half-brother at QB for Cal (and 50 mentions of that per broadcast wore thin very quickly goodness knows how Cal fans put up with it every game!) did him no favours outside of showing off that large catching radius, so he should put up better numbers now he has a good QB. Overall, I like the pick just a medical question
5. Steve Williams CB California. Williams will push for the nickel slot at 5’8 181 lbs. A surprise junior entry, he ran in the low 4.4’s at the Combine to cement a day three slot. He played in an off zone scheme in college and likely is limited to that moving forward as he lacks the length to press. He showed a nice recovery burst and despite being small, was not afraid to support against the run which I love. A poor man’s Leon McFadden.
6. Tourek Williams DE Florida International. Williams was one of those players that was getting some mention as a sleeper pick that I never connected with so outside of some athletic upside, I’m not a real fan of the pick and certainly is the weakest one in this otherwise excellent Draft class. I never really saw a great burst off the edge and he wasn’t up against the best teams in a non-AQ conference. From tape I didn’t think he was draftable and his 10 yard split time was pretty slow at the Combine to boot so in all I’m not onboard with this pick.
7. Brad Sorensen QB Southern Utah. I saw four games of Sorensen and he was a decent prospect, but he did have the best pass I saw all year. During half time of an East Central (Armonty Bryant) game, I watched 20 minutes of the Southern Utah/Northern Arizona game and caught a 30 yard square in thrown on a rope which hit his WR right in the numbers wow!! Sorensen certainly has the arm talent, but he needs to clean up his accuracy and also learn to make better pre/post snap reads. He will take too many sacks, so needs to quicken things up post snap. He did play better later in the year, particularly in the big win against Eastern Washington. I think he’s well worth the pick, he’s a nice fit arm wise to the offense and given time could become a number two and possibly more.
Top UDFA’s
It seems every AFC West team wanted an undrafted early entry and the Chargers went for Kwame Geathers (NT, Georgia) who started the year rotating at NT with John Jenkins but saw more time when Jenkins moved to DE to replace the injured Abry Jones. Geathers must learn to play lower. They also took Brandon Moore (DT, Texas) who came out early there were flashes of ability and he does have experience at the 5 technique position. Jahleel Addae (SS/CB, Central Michigan) is one of the better UDFA’s in my view listed as a safety, he was most often lined up over the slot WR so may be tried at CB he’s not that big, but he can play and doesn’t back down physically. Devan Walker (OLB, Southereastern Louisiana) isn’t as good as college team mate Robert Alford (round 2, Falcons), but he has some pass rush ability. Luke Tasker (WR, Cornell) is the son of former Bills WR/special teamer Steve, it be interesting to see if he can carve a niche in the league as his Dad was able to do for many years. Nick Becton (OT, Virginia Tech) flashed as much as the drafted Vinston Painter and certainly has good size.
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