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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – Defensive Tackle Rankings
by Paul Emery
April 18th 2013
For new readers it’s worth quickly going through how I do things. If you are looking for a consensus ranking or something that copies from elsewhere, then this isn’t the place! I watched 278 games this year, I like to watch full games rather than the cut up prospect clips on YouTube (which I do use to break ties or where I can’t get full games), so I can get into the flow of the game and really understand when a big play is needed etc. I try and watch the top prospects at least 6 times, the middle rounders 3 to 5 and the later rounders at least a couple of times. I rate each game I see, work out an average and then build in the Combine/Pro Day numbers (see my two Combine articles).
These rankings are therefore my personal position boards and are in no way meant to predict who will be taken first in the Draft. Someone might be taken in the top 10, but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think he will make it in the NFL after all there are busts every year, so why shouldn’t rankings differ?! I’m sure NFL teams boards vary far more than the media believe.
I have no contacts in the NFL and have kept it that way on purpose so their opinions don’t change my mind. I always trust what I see on tape. However, this does mean I am not party to which players are character or medical red flags outside of what is in the media. I take into account medical to a degree, but will ignore character red flags outside of a mention in the text as I don’t know these prospects personally and it’s unfair to judge them (e.g. last year I had Janoris Jenkins as my number one CB). With that said, let’s get started with the offensive tackle class.
The top of this class looks very good, but teams with a need at the position will need to address it fairly early as there isn’t a great deal of depth in this class. Once you get to tier five my confidence starts to fall away, so you are looking at only eight players that I really like and even then with reservations.
Tier One
1. Johnathan Hankins* – Ohio State. 3-4 NT or 4-3 Over-Tackle. Played in a hybrid 3-4 defense and was out of position as a DE, often lined up outside the OT’s outside shoulder (at 320 lbs). A different player when used inside. Single handedly stuffed up Le’Veon Bell in the Michigan State game with a simply dominant display. Gave Brian Schwenke major problems in the Cal game (likely top 100 pick). Powerful man with surprising quickness off the snap for a big man. Plays low to the ground and therefore wins the leverage battle. Flashes of penetration, just explosive but it was tough for him over the tackles outside shoulder, just not his game. Didn’t play as well down the stretch didn’t rotate as much as Richardson and Floyd, so just wore down especially the way he was used. His stock seems to be falling, but that just means that someone is going to get a steal.
2. Sheldon Richardson* – Missouri. Has a little boom or bust about him, but when on his game is a very disruptive penetrator. Also has long arms, so better at keeping blockers off him than some. Strictly a one gap penetrator right now, so a 4-3 DT or one gap 3-4 DE (e.g. Houston) but has the frame to two gap. Rotates heavily, so is always fresh and can just fly off the ball. He wasn’t always consistent, particularly in terms of anchoring, but he just stands out on tape. Was suspended for a game (academics), but I think in his mind the decision to leave early had already be taken and class then became less important. May have questions to answer regarding that, but on the field he looks like he could be a top player.
3. Sharrif Floyd* – Florida. Has steadily risen up boards all year and is now viewed by most as a top 10 pick. He has experience at 3-4 DE, but I think is a classic one gap 4-3 Under-Tackle. Shows good hand use, but has short arms so will win more often with his initial quickness. Has a nice swim move and showed some flashes rushing the passer. Can get off blocks with arm extension and hand use, but doesn’t project that well with this as he has short arms. Is a nice story off the field, came from a poor background and has used football to stay out of trouble that will likely put him ahead of Richardson on most boards (in cases like this, ignoring the off the field stuff stinks!!).
Tier Two
4. Star Lotulelei Utah. A real boom or bust pick. I watched five full games of him and in only one quarter did he dominate. I didn’t get the sense the effort wasn’t there, but it just didn’t happen for him outside of the first quarter against USC in a top 10 kind of way. Utah State ran outside the tackle box and forced him to chase, meaning he was tired and ineffective for the majority of the game. Must learn to play lower gets bolt upright post snap too much especially after he’s been chasing plays down the field and is therefore tired. May benefit from being in a rotation as he was on the field most of the time for Utah. He does get his arms extended to keep blockers off, which is a positive sign. Despite being bigger, he’s more of a one gap penetrator than old school two gap plugger but that might suit where the league is at right now. Had a heart problem show up at the Combine, but that is reportedly now clear.
Tier Three
5. Jesse Williams Alabama. Native of Brisbane, Australia. Two years of junior college before Alabama had played some football in Australia still has upside. 3-4 NT who improved as 2012 went on, got much better at using his hands and getting off blocks. Big thick body and is very strong very difficult to move, has a natural anchor and holds up even against a double team. Main question is he’s limited as a pass rusher, so how much will he get on the field? He may not suit every team more of a two gap plugger, so the Steelers type 3-4 or the Ravens/Jets hybrid and if the Patriots want to use the two gap 3-4 (one of the architects of this Chuck Fairbanks passed away recently). Might slip to day two, but does what he does very well.
6. Sylvester Williams North Carolina. Had very inconsistent tape in 2012, was dealing with an ankle sprain, which may explain things. I had a question with his conditioning he doesn’t rotate as much as others but he still looked winded at times and then played way too high. In the second half of the Miami game he did nothing looked exhausted. Has a nice swim move, but is far too reliant on it needs more in his arsenal of moves. Struggles to shed if his initial quickness doesn’t get him penetration tends to peel back off blockers, rather than getting under them and shedding the correct way. Has tools, but must develop a counter when his initial move doesn’t work and invest heavily in the pre-season conditioning program.
Tier Four
7. John Jenkins Georgia. Big 3-4 NT prospect – started the year at NT, but then moved more to DE more after Abry Jones got hurt. Like Johnathan Hankins, this didn’t really suit his game. There were flashes of explosiveness early in the year, but down the stretch he struggled and was dominated by Larry Warford in the Kentucky game. Offers very little as a pass rusher and may be taken later than everyone thinks. Completely dominated against Vanderbilt one of the best plays I saw all year he got under the center and jacked him right back into the QB’s lap! Had a sack against Chance Warmack in the SEC Championship game, but this was his only sack of the year. Will be better for playing back inside if he can recapture his early season form he’ll be fine.
8. Brandon Williams Missouri Southern State. Williams is a big man (335 lbs), but like Star Lotulelei isn’t your classic two gap plugger. He was completely dominant at his level of play with his explosiveness and raw power just too much for the competition (27 career sacks). Has experience at DE in a 3 man line, but projects best as a Tampa-2 Over-Tackle. Offers superb explosion off the ball and will get penetration. Combine numbers confirmed his explosion, including 38 bench press reps. A really interesting athlete who is different than you think!
Tier Five
9. Bennie Logan* – LSU. Listed at 288 lbs by LSU, I thought he looked bigger and he checked in at the Combine at 309 lbs confirming that. I was hoping for him to come along as Michael Brockers did last year after the mid season point, but it never happened and he declared early anyway. Has long arms (34) but hasn’t figured out how to use them to help his game. He can anchor nicely though. Not much of a pass rusher. Has tools to work with, but might need a year.
10. Kawann Short Purdue. Short does not have great tape. He looked heavy and slow in 2012. His play was better in 2011 and I did wonder if he added some weight which limited his explosiveness. However, he was only 299 lbs at the Combine and I had estimated him at 350 lbs from tape… Maybe a crash diet?! He did play better at the Senior Bowl with a couple of days in practice where he was excellent, but equally one day where he was held in check. Showed very little burst this year. He would be high on my list of guys to talk to I’d be very interested what he played at in 2012 and if that caused the bad season. They say never to draft on junior tape, but that’s exactly what you’d be going with Short.
11. Akeem Spence* – Illinois. The 10 yard split time is big at the Combine for defensive lineman. While running the 40, prospects split times at 10 and 20 yards are also recorded and with Spence unlikely to run 40 yards in a straight line too much in his career, scouts look to this 10 yard split for the big guys. Spence number shows up in green on my spreadsheet (my day job is Data Manager in a school, so all this conditional formatting stuff is in my DNA!). Spence ran the second fastest time of the DT’s and was faster than Floyd and Richardson. That time will have one gap teams very interested, but not so fast the tape! Well, it’s not good as with most of the Illinois prospects in this Draft class. Got stoned by Penn State’s Matt Stankiewitch all day in that game. One gap penetrator only with a poor anchor. Needs to grow more as a pass rusher. Athletic upside pick.
Tier Six
12. Kwame Geathers* – Georgia. Started the year backing up John Jenkins at NT, but played more in the second half of the year as Jenkins move to DE to replace the injured Abry Jones. Taller than ideal for a big run stuffer at 6’6 does struggle at times to win the leverage battle. Still a little raw wins with his size and some power but would have loved to see him come back for another year. Likely day three pick might be a two gap DE but there’s not a great deal of demand for that…
13. Josh Boyd Mississippi State. When Boyd is on then he looks like a top 100 pick. A classic one gap penetrator unfortunately for him there wasn’t enough of that in 2012 and indeed in most games he was held in check. His 10 yard split time at the Combine was one of the fastest in the DT group, so he could be taken higher than his tape dictates. Played very well in the Arkansas game, but otherwise was pretty quiet including getting stoned by Dallas Thomas in the Tennessee game. One gap penetrator only.
14. Montori Hughes Tennessee-Martin. Transfer from Tennessee where he had some off the field trouble, but I’m led to believe he has matured. Very impressive looking athlete at 6’4 329 lbs. Even at a lower level of play did not always dominate. UTM played Northern Illinois early in the season and he was very quiet in that game. Did dominate the final home game, but has some boom or bust about him. Very tough to move does play too high though, so projecting him against better players I think that may be more of an issue. Has a high motor, will chase plays away from him. Needs to use his hands better. Played some 3-4 DE, which like Hankins and Jenkins didn’t really suit him. Gets his hands up in the passing lane when the QB throws such a tall man can bat passes down. Has talent, but needs refinement.
Tier Seven
15. Everett Dawkins Florida State. Came into the year with a mid round ranking, but didn’t really play up to it. Comes off the ball low and hard, but not refined in anything he does. Tends to peel back off his blockers and therefore in on tackles but after solid gains. I watched FSU a bunch and really he only stood out in one game (Georgia Tech). Needs to get stronger.
16. Larry Black Jr. Indiana. Lacks a good anchor, but as a one gap penetrator in this class he’s probably worth a draft pick. Played on a very poor team. His 10 yard split at his pro day was only 0.02 seconds slower than Sharrif Floyd’s at the Combine. A classic three technique, somewhat boom or bust but why not in the later rounds?
17. A.J. Francis Maryland. Got my attention after giving Jonathan Cooper some problems in the first half of the North Carolina game. Big DT with long arms ideal two gap prospect. Powerful man and has flashes of quickness and explosion in his game. Would have been the Patriots perfect late round two gap player but they seem to be moving to more 4-3, so perhaps not…
Tier Eight
18. Nicholas Williams Samford. Had a fantastic Combine workout, which was enough to get him ranked. His tape wasn’t necessarily the best, so he’s a raw athletic upside prospect. Has long arms, but is a little taller than ideal (6’4) and plays too high. Even with his athletic numbers he was controlled too easily at a lower level of play (low man wins). Has the frame and the athletic ability but needs a ton of work.
19. Jordan Hill Penn State. Played second fiddle to Devon Still last year and didn’t really fair that well without him next to him. He drew more double teams this year and struggled to hold up against them. Made a few flash plays, but looked nothing more than a rotation guy at best.
20. Joe Vellano Maryland. Undersized try hard guy who gets a mention because with his motor you just can’t bet against him. A little like the smaller DT’s Iowa produce (listed at 285 by Maryland). Looks to have added bulk (306 lbs at his pro day). Struggled late in the year with two injured ankles, but played hurt. I didn’t need to interview the guy to tell he loves football and certainly I’d want him in my camp might be the type who you just never can cut.
With a couple of British players already in this Draft class (Menelik Watson and Tom Wort), Lawrence Okoye might be a third. He worked out at a regional combine and lit the place up. He’s even listed as a sixth rounder by one of the major NFL Draft websites! He has experience of rugby, but more recently has been throwing discus. Will certainly be popular as an undrafted free agent and that may see him get a late round call despite never having played the game.
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