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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – NFC South Draft Review
by Paul Emery
May 22nd 2013
Having finished equal 12th with Mike Mayock (and ahead of Mel Kiper) in the Huddle Report’s Top 100 rankings this year, Paul Emery now rates your team’s 2013 Draft Class.
Assigning Draft grades has never been my thing, although the last couple of years I’ve done so. But many have shown much comes down to opportunity as well as talent, so I’ll avoid them this year but I will give my general impression. I’ll give a player by player analysis of each Draft pick and throw in a few of my favourite undrafted free agents (UDFA’s) as well.
I did try and watch every draftable prospect, but in some cases that wasn’t possible (access/money or time usually!) and in those cases I’ll state that and make no comment, rather than trying to fudge it or saying it was a reach just because the player wasn’t on my list of prospects or something!
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons doubled up at three positions CB, DE and Safety as they attacked needs. The first two picks are very good, one would imagine they came away from the Senior Bowl impressed with both Trufant and Alford. The rest of the Draft is not as good though, although Renfree is a good pick and someone they can develop behind Matt Ryan.
1. Desmond Trufant CB Washington. Trufant has two older brothers in the league, so will have known exactly what to expect in the pre-Draft process. I believe that’s a big reason why he aced it enjoying a fine Senior Bowl week and then performing well at the Combine. His stock with me was pretty solid all year, I had him rated as a second rounder throughout whereas others started as a mid or even late rounder and then rose to the first round before the Draft. I think there were enough negative plays on tape to believe he wasn’t quite an elite prospect. It’s also fair to say that there were only around 20 players with solid first round grades, so the value here is OK in this Draft class.
2. Robert Alford CB Southeastern Louisiana. Alford was one of my favourite prospects this year and I think is excellent value in the second frame. Alford was clearly the best athlete on the field at his level of competition. Interestingly, teams threw at him more than William and Mary’s B.W. Webb who went later in the Draft and Alford made opposing QB’s pay! He also played WR on occasion (he drew two pass interference calls in one game!) and was very dangerous as a punt returner (returned a punt for a TD in one game I watched, would have had another but for a holding penalty also had a big kick return in the Senior Bowl game). He passed the level of competition test at the Senior Bowl, where he showed he’s not afraid to get up and press top WR’s. He completed a fine post season with good numbers at the Combine. He should contribute right away and has the added bonus of being able to help in the return game.
4a. Malliciah Goodman DE Clemson. Goodman was expected to be the next up in the Clemson DE production line, but he didn’t quite live up to his pre-season billing. It’s clear to see Goodman’s potential on tape, but he’s the type of prospect you see the odd flash from but you were left wanting more from him. He did play slightly better as the season progressed but it wasn’t until the Bowl game that he put it all together with a dominant display. It would appear that he overthinks the game and it slows him down, he’s a slow twitch guy off the line but can use his long arms to keep blockers off him. If the Falcons just let him loose off the edge they may see his talents more than if they ask him to read and react more. He does have potential, but this a little high for me.
4b. Levine Toilolo TE Stanford. Toilolo was overshadowed by Coby Fleener and then Zach Ertz who both put up better numbers as receivers. Toilolo was used more as a blocker, but he is tall and thus will give Matt Ryan another nice red zone target. I can’t say I was expecting him to come out early, so I don’t have a great many notes on him but overall I think it’s a little early for him at this stage. As a blocker he bent at the waist too much he is a tall man (6’8), so he’ll always have to bend his knees as much as possible to help win the leverage battle. In the Oregon game he had a drop and the commentators mentioned he had struggled in that area all season, so he’s got some cleaning up to do.
5. Stansly Maponga DE TCU. A junior entry who struggled with injury in 2012, so he could be a sleeper. He’s not the tallest (6’2), so lacks the classic length some teams look for, but he does have fairly long arms (34 1/8). He flashed ability to use his hands, but needs a little more work in that area. Primarily a speed rusher, he gets too high when he’s trying to turn the corner so will need to clean that up also. He also tended to go too wise with his speed rush, making it a long journey to the QB. The flashes were there enough to think this is just about OK value wise.
7a. Kemal Ishmael FS Central Florida. Ishmael is a highly versatile safety who at the very minimum should be a star on special teams coverage units. He has experience in the box, in man coverage, some Cover-2 safety and occasionally rolled over to be a single high free safety. That should stand him in good stead as he learns a more complex NFL defense. I thought he was most effective in the box, he has good size and wasn’t afraid to mix it up. He stood out enough for me to think he’d be drafted, so I can’t argue with the value.
7b. Zeke Motta SS Notre Dame. Motta came into the year with this kind of grade, but at one point was being talked about as a mid round pick (being talked up by Mike Mayock was probably a big part of that). However, when I studied him closely I wasn’t particularly impressed and indeed against USC I thought he looked poor against the speed of Marqise Lee. Therefore his slow Combine 40 time was not a huge surprise. In the BCS Championship game his angles and tackling were poor once again his speed was shown up, allowing Cooper to get behind him on a big play. He’s a college Cover-2 safety who offers very little outside of that but could stick based on special teams coverage.
7c. Sean Renfree QB Duke. Renfree has some tools to work with and could be someone who they can develop and perhaps trade in a few years time for a much higher pick. I always think it’s well worth taking a QB late just to do that and I can very much see Renfree developing into an asset. He would have been taken earlier, but he injured his shoulder on the last play of his Bowl game, so had limited exposure in the off season process. He’s played in a pro style offense and although he needs to quicken things up in terms of getting through his progressions, at least he has experience doing this many spread QB’s don’t. He put up big numbers for Duke and led them to a Bowl game, which isn’t easy this is very good value and he’s certainly a better prospect moving forward than some of the recent #3 QB’s the Falcons have had on their roster.
Top UDFA’s
This was a very large class, but not too much stands out but to be fair there are some names here that weren’t on any lists I had and thus haven’t seen Casey Barth (PK, North Carolina) had some injury problems but is talented. Darius Johnson (WR, SMU) is fast, had great production in college and can also return punts – but is only 170 lbs. Brandon Thurmond (DE, Arkansas-Pine Bluff) didn’t have great pro day numbers, but has a high motor and some pass rush ability. Seth Doege (QB, Texas Tech) will have a tough time beating out Sean Renfree, but he was highly productive in a spread offense. I had Ryan Schraeder (OT, Valdosta State) rated higher than Panthers fourth rounder Edmund Kugbila he worked out very well at his pro day and has upside.
Carolina Panthers
Only five picks for the Panthers and after spending two picks in 2011 on DT’s, they again addressed the issue with two further picks. Day three saw just three picks, one of which I’m not a fan of but the other two are solid value.
1. Star Lotulelei DT Utah. Lotulelei flashed top five talent, the problem being that was in just one quarter of the five full games I watched of him. Part of the issue with him is that he wasn’t afforded the luxury of being able to rotate as guys like Sheldon Richardson and Sharrif Floyd were, so he wore down and then played too high. As part of a rotation he should be fresher and therefore able to give 100%, take a break and then come again a series later. Certainly against Utah State he was chasing off tackle runs (Kerwynn Williams) and therefore tired quickly and was largely invisible. He was quite frustrating to watch as you know the talent is there to take over a game, but he just didn’t do it consistently enough. He has some boom or bust about him and I found it tough to really like him despite the obvious potential.
2. Kawann Short DT Purdue. Short checked in at the Combine under 300 lbs, but he looked far heavier on tape. Indeed his senior tape was generally poor as he lacked any kind of quickness or explosion. He did perform better at the Senior Bowl outside of one quiet day at practice and that helped push his stock back up. His junior tape was much better and he came into the year with a first round grade, so if they can get him back to that form this pick will be excellent value. It would be interesting to know if the added weight was just him overeating, or his coaching staff asked him to bulk up to eat up double teams more. A weight clause in his contract would certainly make a lot of sense. Overall, a gamble based on junior tape but not a player I was high on from 2012 tape.
4. Edmund Kugbila OG Valdosta State. Kugbila was a surprise fourth round pick. Listed at 365 lbs in college he looked very but of that on tape but checked in at a much slimmer 317 lbs at the Combine. He has some power and showed he can sit in his stance in pass protection but even in Division 2 quickness was an issue. I think it’s a couple of rounds too early they must be convinced the weight will stay off and that may help him against quickness, but he has a big jump in level of competition and I’m not sure he’ll handle it.
5. A.J. Klein ILB Iowa State. Klein started the year in the middle, but after Jake Knott got hurt he moved to the weakside LB slot. In the Bowl game against C-USA Tulsa I thought he was poor, so lacked some momentum for me going into the post season. However, he worked out very well at the Combine including one of the faster 40 times to raise his stock. I thought tackling was a problem for him he flashed ability to set an edge, but wasn’t consistent. He looks best when he doesn’t have to read and react but just fly into one gap. If they can keep things simple for him he should push for playing time but certainly if he can clean up his tackling he should make an impact on special teams.
6. Kenjon Barner RB Oregon. Barner is very fast, but is more of a linear athlete. When you watch Oregon, you see De’Anthony Thomas check into the game and you notice the difference between the two Thomas can cut sharply without dropping speed, but Barner generally weaves his way up the field. His speed could be used in the return game, where being direct is a plus and if they can get him into space as a receiver the speed could also be a positive. He’s not as good as LaMichael James last year, but if they use him correctly he can still be productive.
Top UDFA’s
Robert Lester (FS, Alabama) is the big name in the Panthers class. Ranked highly coming into the year, his stock nose dived after testing out poorly at the Combine but he’s a classic ball hawk in centre field but limited in man coverage. Craig Roh (DE, Michigan) was also rated highly coming into the year he has a high motor and has a chance to stick. Wes Horton (DE, USC) had injury problems but he has a nice frame and flashes intriguing potential he’s a boom or bust type, but at little cost he’s very much worth a look. Eric Breitenstein (FB, Wofford) was hugely productive in a triple option offense he’ll need to learn a pro system but he could find a niche in short yardage situations.
New Orleans Saints
Like the Panthers, the Saints only drafted five players but three were big favourites of mine so I like the group. Even Stills on day three, who I wasn’t that high on, is solid value in the fifth round. John Jenkins didn’t play well down the stretch in 2012, but there were reasons for it. He is a perfect scheme fit as it would seem Rob Ryan wants to move away from the one gap defense he was forced to run personnel wise in Dallas and get back to his two gap roots.
1. Kenny Vaccaro FS Texas. In my top 100 I didn’t worry about positional value and so had Vaccaro as my number one overall ranked played, so clearly I love the pick! Vaccaro did not run that well at the Combine, which is about his only weakness. He played much of the time over the slot WR in 2012 and showed some excellent press skills and certainly he can mix it up physically with TE’s in the slot. I think he’s better than Mark Barron last year (who went higher in a class with more elite talent) and certainly you can do more with him than the former Alabama man. I’m sure new defensive co-ordinator Rob Ryan will do a number of different things with him, including blitzing his aggressive nature if a perfect fit for a Ryan defense I love the player, the value and the scheme fit.
3a. Terron Armstead OT Arkansas-Pine Bluff. I didn’t get to Armstead until relatively late in the season (in the gap between regular season and Bowl games) as he wasn’t rated highly but as soon as I saw a few plays I knew he should be rated much higher. He tested out extremely well at the Combine and that athletic ability was very much visible on tape. He was asked to pull quite frequently and it seemed the RB was having a hard job keeping up with him such were his movement skills. He looks naturally flexible and is very comfortable kick/sliding. His main weakness is that he gets a bit grabby at times if he can work on keeping his hands inside more, then he might well be able to contribute right away. He’s got the raw label because he played at a small school but he can sit and bend very naturally, so it’s just a little cleaning up technique wise for me. I was a little surprised he wasn’t taken earlier, but he’s a good pick and has all the tools to be a starting left tackle in the NFL, which makes a third round pick excellent value.
3b. John Jenkins DT Georgia. In Dallas defensive co-ordinator Rob Ryan had an undersized one gap NT in Jay Ratliff. That didn’t fit Ryan’s background and it could have been part of the reason why that defense didn’t have great success. The Patriots two gap system that Ryan ran before Dallas, requires a big NT who can hold up against a double team and Jenkins is exactly that. Jenkins started out the year at NT, but after DE Abry Jones was hurt he moved outside more and like Johnathan Hankins it didn’t really suit him. Early in the year there was some explosion, but he seemed to wear down as the season moved forward. Although he had a sack against Chance Warmack in the SEC Championship game, he doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher and therefore won’t likely be on the field in the nickel, so that should keep him fresh. He has the size and power to hold up against a double team and should be a nice system fit.
5. Kenny Stills WR Oklahoma. I wasn’t that high on Stills, but then I was judging him based on the day two grade most people were giving him in season. He seems to be one who was pushed a bit too far up boards and even a very fast 40 time at the Combine couldn’t save his stock. He was highly productive in a spread offense and being the only returning WR for the Sooners he saw that rise to 82 catches in 2012. He does disappear from games for large stretches and the main concern with him is route running/separation. He also had a few too many concentration drops, but he made some nice catches away from his body. He will need a little work, but it will be good for him to use his 4.3 speed vertically as his college offense featured a lot of swing passes/slip screens.
6. Rufus Johnson DE Tarleton State. One major site I was scanning after the Draft had a grade for every single pick in the Draft and Johnson drew a D+. From the write up, I’m not even sure the author had seen Johnson play as it was appropriately vague. If I were to rate this pick it would be A+ as Johnson was one of my favourite small schoolers and indeed even with small school expert Josh Buchanan rating him as an undrafted free agent, he qualifies as a sleeper. Johnson played in a 4-3 in college, but projects to 3-4 OLB in Ryan’s defense. I think with the Cowboys, Ryan had inherited a Wade Phillips one gap system and was therefore limited personnel wise with what he could do. With a background in the Patriots two gap system, Johnson actually fits that template perfectly and so it could be he wants to use more of that system than the one in Dallas (certainly the two gap NT is in place in Jenkins). Johnson has a body type a little similar to Tank Carradine and like the Florida State man he showed the ability to drop his hips to set an edge and get off blockers. He was a little too reliant on an inside move when rushing the passer, but he has a nice spin move and showed potential using his long arms to keep blockers off. He does need to get stronger, but that can be rectified pretty quickly. Hopefully my enthusiasm for the prospect comes over, I see it as a nice scheme fit, good value and he’s an exciting sleeper prospect.
Top UDFA’s
Four signings really stand out in this class and there are some others with potential as well. Kevin Reddick (ILB, North Carolina) managed to start for four years on a talented LB corp he lacks elite athletic ability, but flashed particularly when attacking downhill. Rod Sweeting (CB, Georgia Tech) always stood out on tape he ran in the low 4.4’s at the Combine, so I have no idea why he wasn’t drafted Chase Thomas (OLB, Stanford) didn’t play as well down the stretch and didn’t test out that well at the Combine but he was productive in his career and can set an edge. Ryan Lacy (CB, Utah) has some press ability he’s not that big but could help as a nickel CB. Eric Martin (DE/OLB, Nebraska) flashed some speed off the edge and is worth a look as a situational pass rusher. Keavon Milton (TE, Louisiana-Monroe) is a HB type with decent hands. Shawne Alston (RB, West Virginia) is a bowling ball type who builds up speed as he comes downhill. Ryan Griffin (QB, Tulane) is a local product who will be a fan favourite in pre-season he put up big numbers in a college spread system.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lacking a first round pick, they had to wait until day two to kick things off but got a player who was ranked as a first rounder on his tape but fell due to poor Combine numbers. Interestingly they took a QB in the third round, clearly they aren’t sure about Josh Freeman. Round four saw two prospects taken that I’m not especially high on, but the final two picks were better.
2. Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi State. Banks had to sit and watch his college team mate Darius Slay come off the board before him, which must have been an interesting experience! Banks came into the year with a first round grade while Slay was not on the pre-season lists I had! Banks stock took a bit hit when he ran in the low 4.6’s at the Combine and although he ran faster at his pro day it was only marginally so (although reported times did vary). Mississippi State played a lot of Cover-3 and that’s where Banks excels. He has a natural feel for the game in zone coverage and his instincts are the reason why he had a first round grade and rightly so. He does have some experience in press coverage but the Bulldogs only played man on blitzes and then Banks was often the one coming off the edge, so he doesn’t have as much experience in that regard. He’s tall, but he has a very slight frame particularly in the lower body. He will come up and tackle but too often goes for the strip and will therefore miss some tackles. He may lack the athletic upside of Slay but he’s the better player upside is great, but there is something to be said for taking players with good tape as you can be surer what you are getting.
3. Mike Glennon QB North Carolina State. This QB class was an acquired taste and anyone looking for a new wave mobile QB would not have ranked Glennon highly. However, those looking for a classic big armed pocket passer in the Matt Ryan mould would have liked Glennon to a degree. When on his game Glennon looked like a top 10 pick, but that tended to be mostly when he was given time to throw. When he was under pressure things fell apart and the North Carolina game was the perfect example. He was 29/46 (with 13 drops!!) for 467 yards with 5 TD’s (all travelled over 20 yards in the air, very rare these days) and 2 INT’s facing a Cover-2 defense that put no pressure on him. Late in a close game the Tar Heels didn’t want to get picked apart anymore, so they blitzed and he went 0 for 6 and looked like a different QB. So he needs to quicken some things up and certainly more time to study tape will only help his game, but he will throw off his back foot and that inability to stand in and take a big shot may not be something he can get out of. However, from a stand point of getting through progressions, ball placement and arm strength he is very good and all be it in a poor class, he was my number one rated QB. It will certainly be interesting to see how much pressure he can put on incumbent Josh Freeman who has been inconsistent and doesn’t appear to be a favourite of this regime.
4a. Akeem Spence DT Illinois. Like most of the Illinois team, it wasn’t a great year for Spence and despite seeing flashes of potential with him, I didn’t think he had great momentum to come out early. However, he elected to do so and whether a fourth round placement was worth it, only he can answer. His stock was rescued by his Combine numbers particularly the first 10 yards of his 40 yard dash. Split times are recorded at 10 and 20 yards and it’s the 10 yard split time teams love to look at for defensive lineman. Spence’s time was one of the fastest in the DT group and after seeing it I put him straight in my top 100 as I knew he would go there (he only just made it though!). He’s a classic three technique who needs to be played as a one gap penetrator. He didn’t play well in 2012 and therefore the pick has some risk, but he does have the athletic upside to become a starter.
4b. William Gholston DE Michigan State. Perhaps because his cousin Vernon (ex-Jets first rounder) blew up the Combine, I was expecting much of the same from William but in fact he was one of the worst performers at the DE position. It was therefore slightly surprising that many people had him in their top 100’s. Athletically the value here is not great, but from a frame stand point it is OK (he is tall with fairly long arms). His tape was mixed. He did stand out in some games, but equally in others he was largely quiet. He does work hard and make plays through hustle but lacking elite movement skills he may struggle to make a huge impact moving forward. Probably a round or two early from a value standpoint for me although if you had him in your top 100 as Mike Mayock did, probably great value, such is the folly of grading Drafts at this stage!
5. Steven Means DE Buffalo. I only watched Buffalo once and Means left the game hurt in the second quarter and didn’t return so tough to judge him. He did stand out frame wise and looked to have long arms, so on that basis I think he’s got potential but he didn’t look super fast off the edge. However, not fair to judge him such limited tape.
6. Mike James RB Miami (FL). James is an interesting all around back who did a number of things for Miami during his college career, including playing some FB. He’s a nice pickup as he’s a solid blocker, good receiver and also offers some possibilities in a one cut and go running scheme, which they now use in Tampa Bay. He showed the ability to create from nothing but will do best making one decisive cut and getting north-south as he lacks top speed. He’s a very natural receiver and really stood out in this area of the game. I like his versatility and certainly with solid pass protection skills, it wouldn’t shock me if he saw some playing time behind Doug Martin in 2013.
Top UDFA’s
Montel Harris (RB, Temple) is the pick of this class a transfer from Boston College he has had injury problems but is very talented he was ranked as a possible mid round pick before his knee injury. Robert Marve (QB, Purdue) is another transfer (from Miami, FL) who played for much of 2012 with a torn ACL! He never lived up to his potential, but is worth a look. Tim Wright (WR, Rutgers) is the only Rutgers signing which may be significant a big target he has potential as a possession/red zone type. Orwin Smith (RB, Georgia Tech) had several big plays in Tech’s triple option offense he’ll need to adjust a little scheme wise, but he’s got talent.
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