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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – Offensive Tackle Rankings
by Paul Emery
April 12th 2013
For new readers it’s worth quickly going through how I do things. If you are looking for a consensus ranking or something that copies from elsewhere, then this isn’t the place! I watched 278 games this year, I like to watch full games rather than the cut up prospect clips on YouTube (which I do use to break ties or where I can’t get full games), so I can get into the flow of the game and really understand when a big play is needed etc. I try and watch the top prospects at least 6 times, the middle rounders 3 to 5 and the later rounders at least a couple of times. I rate each game I see, work out an average and then build in the Combine/Pro Day numbers (see my two Combine articles).
These rankings are therefore my personal position boards and are in no way meant to predict who will be taken first in the Draft. Someone might be taken in the top 10, but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think he will make it in the NFL after all there are busts every year, so why shouldn’t rankings differ?! I’m sure NFL teams boards vary far more than the media believe.
I have no contacts in the NFL and have kept it that way on purpose so their opinions don’t change my mind. I always trust what I see on tape. However, this does mean I am not party to which players are character or medical red flags outside of what is in the media. I take into account medical to a degree, but will ignore character red flags outside of a mention in the text as I don’t know these prospects personally and it’s unfair to judge them (e.g. last year I had Janoris Jenkins as my number one CB). With that said, let’s get started with the offensive tackle class.
This is a general board and in some cases two players may be close and it’s just what skill set you are looking forward to split (e.g. guard Cooper and Pugh for the teams that like athletic players; Warmack for the power teams). In some cases this will mean a player is low e.g. Harrison Smith last year I rated him low as there aren’t many Cover-2 safeties around in the NFL and his skillset didn’t fit what most of the league looks for but he got picked by a Cover-2 team and had success. That’s quite tough sometimes, but I try to go with what most teams are looking for and also what I think will work in the league (I differ with the QB’s more than any other position).
This class lacks a Matt Kalil elite talent. However, there are some very good prospects that should go in the first couple of rounds. The talent does then fall off to a degree, so teams with a need at the position should look to address this early and certainly teams in the top 10 with a hole at left tackle should probably take on and get other needs later.
Tier One
1. Luke Joeckel* – Texas A&M.; I’ve spent so much time saying that Joeckel isn’t a Matt Kalil elite pass protector it actually sounds like I don’t think he’s a good prospect. So let’s set that straight Joeckel is a really good player. Indeed, he’s a better run blocker than Kalil. I do have a couple of concerns though. Firstly he’s not an elite athlete I thought from tape study that elite speed would give him a problem and his Combine workout confirmed that as he was some way off the likes of Johnson, Armstead and Fisher with a 40 time in the low 5.3’s. The other issue is a technique one and is probably caused by him not being an elite athlete. He drops his hands low when setting up in pass protection, so gives up his chest far too easily probably being stressed speed wise causes this to happen. Now, despite playing in the SEC no one really took advantage of it and gave him a bad time but one has to project forward and I think a Jared Allen type would give him major problems giving up his chest as he does.
Outside of that he’s really good. Once he’s set up and gets his hands on his man, then it’s generally game over. He looks very comfortable sitting in his stance and can mirror very effectively. In the run game he gets out to the second level very quickly and certainly looks quicker than his timed speed at the Combine. He doesn’t over extend and can set an edge effectively. Reportedly one of the highest character players in this Draft he should be a very good NFL player for many years.
2. Lane Johnson Oklahoma. Johnson came into the season rated as a late rounder, he had played only one season for the Sooners at right tackle. In 2012 he moved to the left side and enjoyed a steady rise to the first round. The early part of my tape study with Johnson consisted of me thinking he was better than his pre-season ranking and even at the Senior Bowl the question was is he a first round pick. So, I went back and watched two more games with the specific question is he better than Joeckel and after much thought I’ve decided not quite. However, Johnson is a unique athlete and has a huge upside considering he’s a former Junior College QB who is still learning the position. Certainly I would not have an issue with the Chiefs taking Johnson over Joeckel.
It’s easy to say Johnson is raw, but in actual fact he’s got a good idea. His hand use is really good, it would help him to get stronger so his punch does more damage, but he battles away well. He is naturally flexible and sits nicely in his stance. Despite being an elite athlete, he did struggle at times against edge speed he just needs to trust himself to sit and slide. A few times I also saw anchor issues which can be resolved with some added bulk. In five years time he might be best from this class, but there is some work for him to do and it’s why he is just below Joeckel.
Tier Two
3. D.J. Fluker* Alabama. In the big games Fluker did a nice job and putting him here would have been easy. But against Tennessee and Western Kentucky he struggled more and left me with a decision to make. He is what he is, won’t suit every team in the league but if Cordy Glenn can be a pro left tackle, then so can Fluker. With 36 arms what he lacks in foot speed he makes up for with that reach. He does a nice job of sitting in his stance and when he locks onto his man he wins. Against speed he will resort to bending at the waist as his foot speed isn’t enough, that leaves him off balance, but on the whole he gets away with it although he doesn’t always win the beauty contest! A mauler in the run game, he would be ideal for a team like the Steelers. He could be a very good right tackle or an average left tackle.
4. Eric Fisher Central Michigan. Fisher has killed the post season process. He was fantastic at the Senior Bowl and he then lit up the Combine with a superb all around workout. However, going back and watching some of his college tape has left me with concerns more so than Fluker as Fisher’s problems came against the likes of Toledo. Technique wise his college tape isn’t good. His hands flap around all over the place, when he should be keeping them high and then shooting them out to control his man. He left the inside open too often and a couple of games I thought he looked like a third or fourth round pick.
Now, it could be that the light came on with him late in the year and that was just his development. But I can’t ignore the poor games I watched and so despite the athletic upside I’m going to put him here. He should have dominated in the MAC, but simply did not.
5. Terron Armstead Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Armstead had a later round ranking, even from small school guru Josh Buchanan, but as soon as I saw him I knew he was going to be a top 100 talent. It wasn’t until his Combine workout he moved up media boards, but it’s clear from game tape that he was going to run very fast. In many ways he reminds me of Jared Veldheer who was my number 5 ranked tackle in 2010. Naturally flexible, he looks very comfortable sitting in his stance and mirroring. His main area of weakness is hand placement, at times he gets them too far outside and there were a handful of holding penalties in games that I watched, which he needs to clean up.
In the run game he was asked to pull quite a bit and that was fun to watch. The RB didn’t have to be patient behind him and indeed was struggling to keep up! He had some fantastic blocks, just destroying defenders on the second and third levels. Level of competition is a question mark, but he did play well in the Shrine Game and did well as a late call up at the Senior Bowl. He needs a little refinement, but has the tools to be special.
Tier Three
6. Menalik Watson* – Florida State. It’s always nice to see British prospects in the Draft and Watson should be a top 100 pick. He moved to the States to play basketball, but found his way to football and has taken to it like a duck to water. Being new to the game, he’s still raw in some areas, he could have been a high first round pick with an extra year in college, but his family’s financial concerns had him declaring early. He looks more athletic on tape than his Combine numbers and indeed a below average overall workout in Indy sees him here with less athletic upside than Armstead.
Pass protection is the main area he needs to work on. He loses technique when stressed and often gets off balance. He did show he can sit and mirror, but will just need repetition. He reportedly had some very strong interviews at the Combine, so teams will be comfortable he is willing to work at his game. In the run game he looks a little better. He can pull effectively and certainly when you see him getting to the second level he looks faster than his timed speed. He may need a year to develop and may lack the quickest feet/longest arms to play left tackle, but he’s still a player with considerable upside.
Tier Four
7. David Quessenberry San Jose State. Quessenberry is another who has nailed the post season process. He had a really good Senior Bowl week and then followed it up with the third best overall workout on my scale at his position at the Combine. Some may see him as a pro guard, but he has 34 arms and can move, so I think he can stay outside. He’s not going to be a fit for a power team and even for a zone team will need to get stronger. His tape for San Jose State was inconsistent. I tried watching another game just before I wrote this article, where he struggled for a quarter and then looked really good, so it didn’t really help. His base can be a little wide in pass protection, meaning he struggles to keep his feet moving. But he flashes a good punch which will be better with added bulk/strength and he can also sit patiently in his stance. He’s a little up and down, part of the ranking is due to his athletic upside, so he’ll need to land in the right situation with a good O-Line coach to fulfil that potential.
8. Brennan Williams North Carolina. Williams missed the latter part of the season with a torn labrum. Depending on his medical review, he may be taken late on day three or even go undrafted. However, prior to the injury I thought he showed day two talent as a right tackle. He didn’t look the best athlete against edge speed or when pulling. But he’s a powerful guy who can lock up and neutralise his man really nicely. He may not be able to contribute in year one, but I think he has definite potential to do so down the road so he should be good value on day three.
9. Xavier Nixon Florida. A highly touted prospect out of high school, Nixon hasn’t quite put it all together, but he did take a step forward in 2012. He was the only tackle I saw to get the better of Tank Carradine but unfortunately he did have a couple of weaker games. I’m sure a pro O-Line coach will believe he can get more consistency from him, so should be a mid round pick.
He’s not the best athlete in the world, so I feel is a pro right tackle prospect. However, he does make every effort to sit in his stance to win the leverage battle. He showed he can sit in his stance and deliver a nice initial punch, but at times he was off balanced it just depended on which game you watched. He had an OK game against Jarvis Jones, using his arm length to guide the Georgia man up the field. He might be the type who can never put it together to be a Pro Bowl level player, but he has talent and good size, so is worth a look on day three.
Tier Five
10. Reid Fragel Ohio State. A former TE, Fragel would have been ranked higher, but at 6’7 (too tall for a guard) his arm length is shorter than ideal at 33. He did have a very good Combine workout, so athletically can certainly hold up at tackle despite the shorter arms. However, longer DE’s (from this draft class Malliciah Goodman with 36 3/8 arms for example) will be able to get into his chest and give him major problems. His nasty demeanour makes him really fun to watch. I also thought he developed nicely over the course of the season. If you looked at his pass protection technique early in the season it was not very good, but he cleaned it up in a big way by the end of the season (and remember Ohio State didn’t have a Bowl game, so he missed out on the luxury of extra practices). I’d have him higher, but his arm length is a concern.
11. Rick Wagner Wisconsin. Wagner is likely a pro right tackle. He’s not a naturally flexible athlete and looks heavy footed at times, but is fairly steady and you know what you are getting. Needs to get stronger (only 20 bench press reps at the Combine), although he showed some power on tape. He kept Chase Thomas very quiet in the Rose Bowl. Needs to make sure he keeps his hands up in pass protection setup, too often they were flapping around exposing his chest to pass rushers. Can be a little over aggressive, lunging at his man and getting himself off balance. A few things to work on, but should be a steady pro not likely to be a Pro Bowler, but you can’t have 22 of them starting.
Tier Six
12. Jason Weaver Southern Mississippi. Did a number on Nebraska’s Cameron Meredith and then against Western Kentucky’s Quanterus Smith (Smith had one positive play against him, but that knocked his QB out of the game). Does a really nice job sitting in his stance and mirroring. Has his hands up ready to strike in pass protection and can deliver a nice initial punch. More of a position wall off type blocker in the run game, should suit a zone team. Did not have great Combine numbers, but his tape was very good, so he’s here.
13. Matt Summers-Gavin California. Summers-Gavin has major knee problems, to what extent I don’t know but they could see him go undrafted. However, if healthy he’s without question talented enough to make a roster. May be better as a guard, but I thought technique wise he can be a right tackle as a pro. He’s not the best athlete in the world, he did struggle against edge speed and wasn’t that great getting to the second level in the run game. But has very good hand placement in pass protection and has a nice initial punch. Talented, but the medical is the question with him.
14. Kyle Long Oregon. Apparently there’s a buzz in the scouting world regarding this young man, but I just don’t see it Originally a pitcher for Florida State, he struggled with grades and then was arrested for a DUI and left. After some time away from sport, he opted to give up baseball and head to football at a Junior College before one season at Oregon. He saw some time at left tackle and guard in a rotation, before securing the starting left guard spot fairly late in the year. An appeal on medical grounds for an additional year of eligibility was turned down by the NCAA. So he has a limited amount of tape and what there is isn’t great. Athletically he had a good Combine workout but at 6’6 his 33 3/8 arms are shorter than ideal, so he’s therefore a tweener in my books. I’m not entirely sure where he projects. Too tall and plays too high inside, but doesn’t play as fast as his numbers for tackle. Clearly the off the field stuff from Florida State needs to be looked at, but outside of that I just haven’t clicked with him on tape and therefore is much lower here than most boards.
Tier Seven
15. Caylin Hauptmann Florida International. Shows some tools to work with, but does need a little technique work. Doesn’t always seem to be under control, but does have the ability to slide really well in pass protection which gets him out of jail. Didn’t have a great Pro Day workout, but ran the short shuttle and cone drills very well confirming his ability to slide on tape. May have to move inside to guard as he’s not long enough.
16. Jordan Mills Louisiana Tech. Power right tackle type who had a very good Senior Bowl week as a late add, but didn’t workout that well at the Combine. Needs to work on his pass protection technique is too upright and narrow with his base at times. Gets out of jail by extending his arms and moving his man up the field, but 34 arms are only average so projecting forward he doesn’t have the same advantage D.J. Fluker does. Does resort to bending at the waist a little too often, which means he’s off balance and in trouble against top pass rushers. Flashes of power in the run game. His tape is better than his workout numbers, strictly a right tackle only prospect.
17. Manase Foketi West Texas A&M.; Originally with Kansas State, but after missing much of 2011 with injury wanted to transfer wasn’t given clearance and so went down to the Division 2 level where he could play straight away. Likely a pro right tackle prospect, could possibly play guard as well (has 34.5 arms). Looks comfortable sat in his stance in pass protection can bend and slide. Does struggle against top speed, got away with it at the D2 level, but projecting him forward I have concerns. Plays nice and square in the run game. You can see he was well coached at Kansas State and he stood out in 2012 at a lower level of play.
18. Aaron Adams Eastern Kentucky. The talent on show at the Casino Del Sol All-Star game wasn’t the best, but I thought Adams was one of the better prospects in the game. He needs to get bigger and stronger (303 lbs, 22 bench press reps) but he has the right idea technique wise. He shows the ability to sit in his stance and mirror; that ability was confirmed with good shuttle and cone times at his pro day. Gets under his man in the run game, although he’s not the strongest he can often win the battle because of that.
19. Rogers Gaines Tennessee State. Combine invite with long arms (36.25), but even at a lower level struggled against edge speed. Not a naturally flexible guy, looks heavy footed and plays too high. Looks better once he gets his hands on his man, can finish plays very nicely. Flashes of a quick first step, but looks heavy footed after that gets away with it because of his long arms. Pro right tackle type who needs some technique work.
20. Nick Becton Virginia Tech. A similar prospect to Gaines above, has 35.5 arms and gets away with things because of that length. Must get stronger (19 bench press reps). Looks a bit heavy footed in pass protection, but looks good when he gets his hands on his man. Tank Carradine gave him a tough time in the Florida State game.
21. Terren Jones Alabama State. Another long armed guy (36) who struggles against edge speed, but might get away with it because of that length. Lacks any kind of foot quickness in pass protection even at a lower level of play struggled against edge speed. At 6’7 he’s likely too tall to move inside though. Flashes some pop in the run game, but must bend better too much of a waist bender.
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