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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – Quarterback Rankings
by Paul Emery
April 12th 2013
For new readers it’s worth quickly going through how I do things. If you are looking for a consensus ranking or something that copies from elsewhere, then this isn’t the place! I watched 278 games this year, I like to watch full games rather than the cut up prospect clips on YouTube (which I do use to break ties or where I can’t get full games), so I can get into the flow of the game and really understand when a big play is needed etc. I try and watch the top prospects at least 6 times, the middle rounders 3 to 5 and the later rounders at least a couple of times. I rate each game I see, work out an average and then build in the Combine/Pro Day numbers (see my two Combine articles).
These rankings are therefore my personal position boards and are in no way meant to predict who will be taken first in the Draft. Someone might be taken in the top 10, but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think he will make it in the NFL after all there are busts every year, so why shouldn’t rankings differ?! I’m sure NFL teams boards vary far more than the media believe.
I have no contacts in the NFL and have kept it that way on purpose so their opinions don’t change my mind. I always trust what I see on tape. However, this does mean I am not party to which players are character or medical red flags outside of what is in the media. I take into account medical to a degree, but will ignore character red flags outside of a mention in the text as I don’t know these prospects personally and it’s unfair to judge them (e.g. last year I had Janoris Jenkins as my number one CB). With that said, let’s get started with the offensive tackle class.
If you are in need of a QB this year, it’s time for your scouts to earn their money! There are no slam dunk Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III level talents. But with Russell Wilson (3rd round) enjoying rookie success there is at least some hope for QB needy teams.
Each signal caller in this class has at least one major weakness and in some cases quite a few. It will depend on what teams are looking for as to who they select. In terms of a general board, I’m not going to push zone-read QB’s up the board as I feel that this will not be as successful in 2013, with defensive co-ordinators no doubt spending the off season working out how they are going to stop this. The big thing I’m looking for is fast eyes the ability for a QB to get through his progressions quickly and not staring down his receiver. That therefore leaves my QB board looking like this:
Tier One
 1. Mike Glennon North Carolina State. Those teams in search for a mobile QB probably won’t like Glennon, who is a classic pocket passer. His feet are actually pretty good for a big man and he did show he can buy some time in the pocket. He’s a much easier evaluation than many of the spread QB’s out there as he threatens all levels of the field. Against North Carolina he threw for 5 TD’s and all of them travelled 20+ yards in the air. At times he looks like a top 10 talent he has the fast eyes I’m looking for and has the arm/accuracy to make some simply beautiful throws. However, it all comes unravelled when he faces pressure. He often throws with his weight on his back foot and not stepping into his throws the accuracy suffers. The North Carolina game is a perfect example after picking them apart all game, the Tar Heels finally decided to bring pressure late in the game and Glennon then went 0 for 6. He’s had some horrible games the season opener against Tennessee and Bowl game against Vanderbilt, plus the Virginia game. To be fair to him he wasn’t surrounded by a great deal of talent and his completion percentage would have been much higher with better receivers (a lot of drops). Even though he’s in tier one, it’s tough to put a first round grade on any of these guys, but I just about have a late one grade on Glennon.
2. Matt Barkley USC. Barkley is a very experienced and polished signal caller who lacks a cannon of an arm and thus must play in a West coast type system. He has elite touch, being able to make the in the bucket throws better than anyone in this class. His stats were down this year as USC finished 7-6 and missing Matt Kalil at left tackle was part of the problem as was an injury to his center Khaled Holmes. Trailing in many games he forced too much and had some poor games, before suffering a shoulder injury which caused him to miss the Senior Bowl and Combine. USC QB’s don’t have a great label, but Barkley has dealt with adversity in his college career and is reportedly one of the highest character players in this Draft. He lacks a great deal of upside, he probably won’t get a whole lot better but he can start from day one and in the right system with some decent players around him he can get a team into the playoffs.
Tier Two
3. Ryan Nassib Syracuse. Nassib has been compared to Andy Dalton and Kirk Cousins in terms of arm talent, but I feel this is doing him a disservice. Now, I haven’t seen him throw live, but on tape he seems to make the 15-20 yard out throws without a problem. The main area of concern is a lack of touch. Even on wide open shorter passes he throws the ball hard and that resulted in a number of avoidable drops. Zac Dysert had even less talent at WR than Nassib and if the Syracuse man could take something off his passes as Dysert did then he would be ranked even higher. I’m not sure touch is necessarily something he’s going to develop down the road, but at least he should have better receivers to bail him out. He has solid footwork and did show ability to get through his progressions quickly at times. At other times though he held the ball too long and was not fast enough with his decision making, so he needs to be more consistent in that area. It will be interesting to see if his former college coach will take him with him to Buffalo if he passes that could see a slide.
4. Tyler Wilson Arkansas. Arkansas were actually a pre-season top 10 pick, but the wheels fell off after Bobby Petrino was fired. Although playing in the same system, Wilson suffered in a bad situation. He missed his three WR’s who were drafted this time last year and then TE Chris Gragg went down with injury, leaving him with just Cobi Hamilton. Wilson is certainly a tough kid he’s willing to stand in the pocket and take a shot as he’s throwing. He’s more willing to step into throws even under pressure than Mike Glennon. His accuracy is the chief concern. Much of this is down to footwork he takes a really wide step after receiving snaps in the shotgun and when getting rid of the ball quickly his passes then sail. Like many strong armed QB’s, he has never seen a window he can’t fit a pass into and coupled with trailing much of the time in 2012, that led to bad decisions and often interceptions. One thing to note is that he has very small hands, which may be a problem in poor weather. Overall though, he has arm talent and toughness and is certainly a day two talent.
Tier Three
5. Geno Smith West Virginia. A couple of years back many loved Blaine Gabbert, but I had him at #6 in my rankings and was not best pleased when my Jacksonville Jaguars took him. I see a lot of Gabbert in Smith, so clearly that’s not a compliment. He’s recently been slated character wise by respected PFW draftnik Nolan Nawrocki, but that appears to be at odds with other views so who knows it will therefore form no part of this evaluation. It is worth saying without that piece of the puzzle evaluating him is pretty much impossible… The thing that concerns me with Smith is his slow eyes. Even in games where he put up big numbers, he stares his primary target down for too long if he goes there that late in the NFL DB’s will murder him and if he then moves to the second target late the pass rush will be all over him. His accuracy is inconsistent and I question if he can play in bad weather (small hands don’t help). He has the arm talent, but if that meant sure fire NFL success then JaMarcus Russell would be on his way to Canton.
6. Tyler Bray* Tennessee. Like Smith, the evaluation for Bray is very difficult because he has some character red flags and maturity appears to be the question. In many ways he’s a little like Ryan Mallett who had similar concerns. On the field, like Glennon, Bray has a big arm and threatens all levels of the field. Outside of the off the field concerns, the other concern for Bray is somewhat of a wind up release. Particularly when he moves in the pocket, the ball drops down near his hip so it has to come back up before he throws and that takes too long. At times it looked like his decision making needed to be quickened up, some games were worse than others but there were some think, think, throw efforts which will cause him problems at the next level. Like Glennon he’s not the best under pressure either at times he has a flinch in his throwing motion as he doesn’t want to step into the throws. He also needs to clean up his footwork. If you believe he will put the work in to iron out the problems then he will appeal to a great many teams with his undoubted arm talent.
Tier Four
7. EJ Manuel Florida State. Quite a difficult evaluation, playing in a short passing/two reads and run offense. I didn’t think he took the next step in his development in 2012 his pre and post snap reads looked poor there are numerous examples of blitzes he just didn’t read (CB blitzes in the Clemson and NC State game for example). He’s big and athletic and should be able to run the zone-read if OC’s believe it can be productive (as mentioned I don’t). He needs to clean up his footwork, especially when throwing on the move. At some point he’s going to be made by NFL defenses to have to sit in the pocket and win as a pocket passer I don’t think he’s close enough to being that to spend anything other than a 3rd/4th round pick on him. Likely to be overdrafted because of the athletic ability and arm.
8. Zac Dysert Miami (Ohio). As mentioned in Ryan Nassib’s write up, Dysert did not have a great group of receivers. While that didn’t help him win games, it actually made him a better QB. He clearly learned to take something off his passes to make them more catchable and his touch is a positive. He has a nice arm plus looks nice and balanced in the pocket. He has mobility, but doesn’t always set his feet when throwing on the run. The key concern with him is his slow eyes he locks onto his first target and will stare him down before throwing or take too long to get to his second target. He looks good pre-snap making audibles and solid reads, but needs to quicken things up post snap. He didn’t stand out at the Senior Bowl and I think is an early day three level talent.
9. Landry Jones Oklahoma. Jones has been hugely productive in a spread offense, but struggled down the stretch in 2011 and had an up and down 2012 season so his stock has generally been heading the wrong way. His main problem is that he’s got happy feet. He makes poor decisions when he’s pressured and even when he has time in the pocket he can’t keep his feet still. Accuracy then suffers as his feet aren’t set. His deep ball accuracy is a concern and there is some Blaine Gabbert about his passing charts (again, not a compliment). If a team wants to use him in a similar system he can dink and dunk all day but 3rd and long will be a problem.
Tier Five
10. Matt Scott Arizona. Scott chose to redshirt in 2011 as he was behind the Eagles Nick Foles. That gave him a full season as the starter and he had a solid year. He’s a very athletic QB and teams looking for that will be interested in him perhaps fairly early on day three. He didn’t look that big on tape, but has bulked up to withstand NFL punishment better. He wasn’t asked to sit in the pocket and go through progressions it’s find the weakness in the coverage and get the ball out usually to his first post snap look. On the occasions when his first read was covered there was some hesitancy and also at times he dropped the ball down, making his release a wind up one. He has an OK arm, but a few deeper throws left me questioning that some (underthrown pick to my man Duke Williams in the Bowl game for example). Might be a nice backup for Russell Wilson in Seattle.
11. Sean Renfree Duke. Renfree suffered a shoulder injury (throwing arm) on the last play of his Bowl game and therefore didn’t play in an All-Star game. He therefore might be a sleeper. Playing in a sophisticated college offense he showed the ability to get through his progressions quickly and showed a quick release. His arm is good, but not great indeed he uses the touch pass too often at times (the opposite to Ryan Nassib). His footwork is solid in the pocket and he sells the play action pass really well but does need to make sure he sets his feet when on the move. I can imagine him being impressive on the white board and he certainly has enough to develop into a starter down the road.
12. Jeff Tuel Washington State. If Tuel is healthy I think he’s an interesting option, but that appears to be an issue for him. Against UCLA he was 11/14, showing touch and the ability to get through his progressions but then hurt his clavicle. He also had a knee injury which caused him to miss two games in 2012. In 2011 it was a right calf injury which caused him to miss time. He looked the best of the QB’s in the Casino Del Sol and NFLPA Collegiate All-Star games, but does carry that medical risk.
Tier Six
13. Brad Sorensen Southern Utah. At half time of an East Central game (Armonty Bryant) I dipped into the Southern Utah/Northern Arizona game and saw Sorensen make a 30 yard pass on a frozen rope and it might have been the best pass I saw all year (and I saw a ton!). He’s got good size and a big arm, but had mixed tape even at a lower level of play. Accuracy is the key concern I felt he dropped his back shoulder too much leading to many overthrows. Has arm talent, but needs to work on his post snap reads.
14. Alex Carder Western Michigan. Missed some time this year after hitting his throwing hand on a helmet. Reads the game very well will read blitzes much better than EJ Manuel and get the ball out to his hot read. He has a quick release and very efficient on shorter/intermediate throws. Lacks a top arm down the field the ball will die on him when he tries to drive 20+ yard passes. Has excellent touch though and looks a real gamer.
15. Dayne Crist Kansas. Transfer from Notre Dame. Looked polished in the Casino Del Sol and NFLPA Collegiate All-Star games also seemed like a very level headed kid in interviews. Has a little Landry Jones to him in that things fall apart when he’s under pressure. When given time he shows the ability to get through his progressions nicely. Has had durability issues in his career.
16. Clay Belton Findlay (Ohio). Belton is a well travelled small school prospect. Originally with Miami (Ohio) he did see some time (115 passes) but lost out to Zac Dysert which is no disgrace (see above). He was at Maryland, but again couldn’t break into the starting lineup. He then took the drop down to the Division 2 level and was a two year starter for the Oilers. Left hander with good size and a nice arm. His footwork looked solid, although not as good after zone-read fakes when he got too wide. Needs to quicken up his post snap reads and decision making, but arm talent is worth a camp look.
17. Ryan Osiecki New Haven. 6’4 230 lbs so solid size and a good arm. Doesn’t seem to have that internal clock and will hold the ball too long. Will try and force passes with his big arm, particularly when under pressure. Can read the whole field, but generally asked to get the ball out to his 1st or 2nd read (when that was Jason Thompson he was generally open, see my WR rankings). Like Belton arm talent is worth a camp look.
College QB’s/pro Athlete prospects
I’m not the biggest fan of conversion prospects, but it doesn’t appear any of the following will be high picks and there is certainly some athletic ability here to be harnessed.
1. Denard Robinson Michigan. Robinson has had problems with a nerve injury in his right elbow which has caused him problems gripping the ball so he needs a clear medical to be a day three pick. Worked at WR at the Senior Bowl, but I like him at RB best lacks the size to be a 15+ carry a game guy, but has the ability to cut without dropping his speed and had some highlight plays in a great college career.
2. Greg Jenkins Alabama State. Stood out at the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl – asked to play at WR due to injuries and although he dropped one, he looked like he can separate with his quickness. Has a decent arm as a QB but lacks the size, accuracy and touch to stay at the position. There’s something him that I really like…a real playmaker with the ball in his hands.
3. Collin Klein Kansas State. Accuracy and release are poor and has some Tim Tebow about him. Took the team on his back numerous times in his career and won big games. Tough and powerful runner. If Tebow had found a niche in New York I would have liked his chances more.
4. MarQueis Gray Minnesota. Has good size and might get a look as a HB/TE. Ran in the high 4.6’s at 240 lbs. Missed a large chunk of the season due to injury, but doesn’t look refined as a QB.
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