NCAA Scouting Michael E Lawrence’s 2010 1st Round Mock Draft V3.0 by Michael E Lawrence April 22nd 2010 00.10 am GMT
In the words of Michael Jackson – this is it.
The NFL Draft starts today, Thursday, at 7.30 pm ET (12.30 am GMT) and rarely has a first round been so widely anticipated. Movement up and down the order often begins in the hours immediately prior to the draft, and if Pittsburgh do indeed offload Ben Roethlisberger in exchange for a deal including Oakland’s eighth pick, the Browns for one will be fielding a lot of calls from teams eager to grab Jimmy Clausen. It seems unlikely that St Louis doesn’t draft Sam Bradford at one, but could a Giants/Chargers, Manning/Rivers type trade go down post-pick? Meanwhile, several teams appear to be jostling for position with a view to selecting the likes of Eric Berry, Earl Thomas and Dez Bryant.
Buckle the proverbial seat belts because this one really does promise to be quite a ride. Day two kicks off Friday at 6.30 pm ET (11.30 pm GMT).
1. St. Louis Sam Bradford QB
A prediction that’s tantamount to announcing the sun will rise there’s no doubt Bradford goes at one, but could the Browns be in play for a step up to grab him? Holmgren wants it, and the Rams surely would benefit from a super-abundance of picks in the top-100, but history dictates a trade is unlikely. Isn’t it?
2. Detroit Ndamukong Suh DT
There’s nary a mock draft in the land that doesn’t have Suh pegged for the second pick, though Russell Okung reportedly remains in play for Detroit, especially in a trade down scenario or after the acquisition of a veteran like Albert Haynesworth. For now, defensive minded head coach Jim Schwartz appears set on snaring the top defensive tackle prospect since Cortez Kennedy.
3. Tampa Bay Gerald McCoy DT
As much as Suh appears to be a lock for the second overall pick, McCoy feels sure he’ll go third but buyer beware: DTs have a high bust rate, and McCoy’s production isn’t as good as other tackles who’ll be drafted later. The Bucs have to hope McCoy doesn’t morph into another Dewayne Robertson.
4. Washington Trent Williams OT
We still feel good about the marriage of Williams and Washington his sheer athleticism is too tasty a proposition for Mike Shanahan’s zone blocking penchant.
5. Kansas City Russell Okung OT
Beat writers in the Kansas area say Bryan Bulaga is still in the Chiefs’ thinking, but that thesis rests on the idea that Okung is long gone it’s increasingly possible he’s available at five, while Bulaga himself is reportedly slipping.
6. Seattle CJ Spiller RB
Spiller could be had later in round one, but Pete Carroll already has his eyes on ex-USC T Charles Brown at pick 14, which means Spiller has be plucked from the tree now. Spiller is a must-have considering Charlie Whitehurst will soon take the reigns a decent running game is the best friend a developmental QB can have ( just ask Mark Sanchez or Vince Young). Could Carroll also trade for LenDale White and recreate a smash-n-dash, USC style backfield harking back to the White/Reggie Bush days?
7. Cleveland Eric Berry S
Former DBs coach Eric Mangini has the ear of boss Mike Holmgren just enough to make sure Berry slips no further than seven. That said, Earl Thomas is gaining speed and Philadelphia are keen to trade up and snare Berry or Thomas for themselves.
8. Oakland Mike Iupati OG/OT
The cat appears to be out of the bag on this one the Raiders believe Iupati can be a mauling LT and are reported to be zeroing in on him with the eight pick. It still sounds possible stubborn, storied monarch Al Davis could select Bruce Campbell here, but a vast majority of NFL personnel people have him pegged as a late first rounder at best. Bear in mind also the notion Davis is smitten with more than just speed he also loves big hitting defensive assassins, a trend exemplified through the decades by the likes of Jack Tatum, Matt Millen and (on paper at least) Mike Mitchell. Considering the Raiders’ bizarre dislike for their own (actually-not-bad) MLB Kirk Morrison, Rolando McClain is also the kind of statement pick Davis could make. Lastly, the Raiders might yet ship this pick to Pittsburgh as part of a deal for Ben Roethlisberger in that scenario the Steelers would presumably swipe Jimmy Clausen for themselves ahead of possible suitors Buffalo, Jacksonville and San Francisco. Whatever happens, pick eight promises fireworks.
9. Buffalo Anthony Davis OT
Jason Campbell has a very good chance of being dealt to Buffalo, which means Jimmy Clausen is not enticing at pick nine especially when Chan Gailey has his eyes on long-term project Tim Tebow in the second round or at the back end of the first. That leaves the Bills free to flirt with the notion of improving a still-shaky offensive line or barrelling up the defensive front. Offensive minded Gailey wants a running game that works, and Davis is the pick, making it four OL in the first nine slots.
10. Jacksonville Jimmy Clausen QB
Jacksonville’s principle weakness is pass rush in a division dominated by Manning, Schaub and countless second-and-five all streaks patterns and defensive playmakers will appeal, but Clausen is a must-have upgrade over incumbent David Garrard. But does Jack Del Rio have the job security to pull the trigger on a young passer who’ll take time to hit stride? Clausen will be drafted anywhere from 7 to 13 one way or another.
11. Denver Dan Williams NT
Dez Bryant? Nah. You don’t trade one wide receiver diva for another not when you’re control freak Josh McDaniels. Maurkice Pouncey has come into the conversation should the Broncos be planning a Browns circa-2009 style trade down but can you really make that choice at eleven? The defensive line is solid but uniformly plus-30 years of age the youth movement needs to start now.
12. *PROJECTED TRADE* Philadelphia (from Miami) Earl Thomas CB/S
The Eagles want Berry or Thomas, and Thomas’s chances of lasting outside the top-13 are increasingly slim. With Miami losing a second rounder in the Brandon Marshall deal and desperate to recoup it, picking one up in a dropdown makes huge sense, especially when so many quality edge rushers can still be had at 24. The Eagles get a rangy centrefielder capable of taking on the high octane passing attacks of Dallas, New York and, potentially, Washington.
13. San Francisco Joe Haden CB
The push for the West crown starts now for San Fran, and Haden busts the board for the 49ers’ new decision making brass. If the 49ers are to leapfrog the Cardinals, the extant threat of Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston and emerging Early Doucet must be neutralized. Also consider that this is the spot Dez Bryant pursuers will need to trade up to, pushing ahead of a Seattle team open to adding further offensive firepower.
14. Seattle Charles Brown OT
Familiarity breeds either contempt or regard and Brown is a well-regarded, familiar talent to Pete Carroll having played left tackle for him with the Trojans. It can be priceless, in the NFL draft, to know what you’re getting and Carroll knows exactly how Brown will fit into the left tackle position and in what ways he needs to be developed.
15. New York Giants Rolando McClain LB
The Giants’ pass rush mysteriously disappeared in ’09 and a pick in the Jason Pierre Paul mould would really help out. Still, the Giants D really fell off a cliff when talismanic Antonio Pierce was lost for the season and then for good and replacing him with McClain is the Giants’ first desire. CJ Spiller has been mooted by New York beat writers too, but McClain is reported to be the number one preference.
16. Tennessee Jason Pierre Paul DE
The Titans are theoretically high on Pierre Paul and Brandon Graham. Grabbing Pierre Paul here ensures some semblance of a pass rush in the explosive AFC South, and the mediocrity of holdovers William Hayes, Jacob Ford and reclamation project Jason Babin makes this a must-selection. Buyer beware Pierre Paul is decidedly boom or bust.
17. San Francisco Bryan Bulaga OT
The 49ers purported interest in CJ Spiller is indicative of the team’s desire to run the football better and to protect shaky QB Alex Smith. They sorely wish Jimmy Clausen was available, but in his absence strive to make their offensive line elite. With a third round pick invested in Glenn Coffee in ’09, the Niners aren’t in any rush to make unnecessary moves up for Spiller, nor indeed Matthews, whose skill-set isn’t greatly different from holdover Frank Gore’s.
18. Pittsburgh Maurkice Pouncey OG/C
With Ben Roethlisberger’s shenanigans and a renewed commitment to the run, dynamic inside push from Pouncey could be just the ticket, especially in place of middling RG Trai Essex or ageing C Justin Hartwig further down the line. Should the Steelers’ starting QB be Clausen in the wake of a Roethlisberger trade, the thinking would be the same. That said, Rolando McClain would also fit with what the Steelers do if he falls this far his selection here would herald an overdue youth movement in anticipation of vet James Farrior fading out. Replacing receiver Santonio Holmes ranks low on the list of priorities.
19. Atlanta Brandon Graham DE
Graham fits in as a potential pass rushing star in the team’s attacking 4-3, a need with Jamaal Anderson a run stuffer and John Abraham injury-prone. Sean Weatherspoon would also slot straight in as a tempo-setter who makes other players around him better, but pass rush is the keynote in the modern NFL and Graham has to be the preference.
20. Houston Kyle Wilson CB
Beat writers speculate the Texans will draft a runner like Ryan Matthews in round one and a corner in round two, but the Kubiak system built on Mike Shanahan-taught values has a long, successful history of finding starting RBs in later rounds. The value lies at CB, and Wilson fills the hole vacated by the defection of Dunta Robinson in a division built on the pass.
21. Cincinnati Dez Bryant WR
Look the NFL draft is replete with trades, and in the real world Dez Bryant’s fall will be halted long before the same spot Randy Moss dropped to a decade earlier. But rest assured the Bengals are one team who won’t have scrubbed Bryant off the big board. Carson Palmer’s arm is dwindling rapidly, but a threat like Bryant will greatly serve to mitigate that.
22. New England Jared Odrick DE
A perfect fit of ability and need for the Patriots, who still need to replace Richard Seymour a year on from trading him away. Odrick’s addition would help to ensure there won’t be many more catastrophic 4th-and-2 attempts for Bill Belichick. A top CB will also get consideration.
23. Green Bay Rodger Saffold OT
Aaron Rodgers is the franchise and must be protected at all costs. The Packers are capable but old on the outside with Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher Saffold is a jack of all trades who can play tackle and guard. Drafted primarily for the outside, Saffoled will make it six players drafted to play tackle in the top 23 picks.
A perfect need/talent selection for a Dolphins team moving on without Jason Taylor and hoping for some dynamism off the edge. Kindle comes with some off the field red flags but classic 3-4 OLB size and power. Perfect Parcells pick.
25. Baltimore Rob Gronkowski TE
Jermaine Gresham is supposed to be the pick of the tight end bunch in this year’s draft, but there are whispers that the Ravens prefer Gronkowski, especially in light of Gresham’s creaky knees. Gronkowski is a reliable cog in the passing game but is every bit as capable as skilled, experienced blocker.This pick has trade down written all over it for a team eager to snare Colt McCoy or a top corner from one of Devin McCourty, Kareem Jackson or Patrick Robinson.
26. Arizona Sean Weatherspoon LB
With Karlos Dansby in Florida the Cards have a gaping hole where their top defensive playmaker used to be. The thinking is Weatherspoon is versatile enough to shift inside and he is a natural, vocal leader for a defense in transition minus Dansby and Antrel Rolle.
27. Dallas Nate Allen S
S and OL have become positions of acute need for Dallas, although the Cowboys feel Doug Free is their LT of the future, and Allen fits the bill here better than question mark T prospect Bruce Campbell or rising Vladimir Ducasse. Allen is a take charge, well rounded DB that will lend the Dallas secondary some identity.
28. San Diego Tyson Alualu DT/DE
The Chargers must get hold of a NT to replace departed Jamal Williams, but guys like Terrence Cody and Cam Thomas could be had at pick 40. In the meantime the Chargers can upgrade at end with fast-rising Aluala, knowing that the front three as a whole needs to be improved if San Diego is to have any hope of stopping the the AFC’s power running attacks.
29. New York Jerry Hughes LB
Even with Jason Taylor added, the Jets want to put the memory of the Vernon Gholston selection well behind them and will stock up with capable edge rushers to put some pop in Rex Ryan’s blitz schemes.
30. Minnesota Kareem Jackson CB
With Cedric Griffin still in recovery mode, the Vikes must shore up a defensive backfield that will have to negotiate New Orlean’s merciless passing game if there’s any chance of competing in a Super Bowl. Jackson, McCourty or Robinson all make sense Jackson is the pick here because he’s rising fast, but McCourty could easily make the cut instead.
31. Indianapolis Vladimir Ducasse OT
There’s just a chance the Colts shock everyone and select Jahvid Best to pair with Donald Brown, with a view to Joseph Addai walking in free agency next year. The value pick in this mock is at corner, where the Colts arguably have a hole, but far more important to Indy is the health of the franchise, Peyton Manning. Bruce Campbell still sits on the board, but Ducasse is a more appealing combination of size and attitude.
32. New Orleans Everson Griffen DE
Griffen is often mocked to New Orleans at 32, and frankly it makes sense one way or another the reigning champions need to bookend Will Smith, and Bobby McCrary couldn’t get that achieved in ’09. Carlos Dunlap and DT Brian Price may also get the nod.
NCAA Scouting
1. St. Louis Sam Bradford QB
