NCAA Scouting Team Draft Review – AFC South by Paul Emery May 16th 2010
Next up in the Diner’s division by division Draft review is the AFC South.
Houston Texans
1 Kareem Jackson CB Alabama 2 Ben Tate RB Auburn 3 Earl Mitchell DT Arizona 4a Darryl Sharpton ILB Miami (Fl) 4b Garrett Graham TE Wisconsin 5 Sherrick McManis CB Northwestern 6a Shelley Smith OG Colorado State 6b Trindon Holliday RS LSU 7 Dorin Dickerson TE Pittsburgh
Having seen Dunta Robinson leave via free agency, the Texans addressed their biggest need going for a CB in the first round. With Kyle Wilson, Patrick Robinson and Devin McCourty all still available they went Kareem Jackson. I personally think Wilson is the best prospect of the bunch by a fair distance and this pick will always be compared against Wilson’s success with the Jets as it wasn’t expected at all. I am generally very wary of Alabama DB’s as they are often a product of the system – just look at Rashad Johnson who the Cardinals took in the 3rd round last year – I bet they wouldn’t pick him that high if they had a do over a year on. Jackson is a very physical CB – the problem in projecting him at the next level is that he’s not the biggest and has very short arms – so it’s going to be tougher for him to do this effectively against bigger and more physical pro receivers. He does have good timed speed, but I didn’t feel it was always evident on tape. Not a great pick for me in terms of the player and also in terms of value.
Another need pick was next but Ben Tate is more like it. He wasn’t rated that highly by many media outlets, but he’s big, physical yet fast enough to turn the corner and break the long run. The Texans needed a bigger back to carry the load and Tate can do the job well in my opinion – but he’s more than a 4 yards and a cloud of dust type and I really like him as a player and think he’ll be very productive right away in Houston.
Amobi Okoye had a down year in 2009 and perhaps there are concerns that he may never reach his immense potential. Deljuan Robinson looked promising in 2008, but did very little in 2009 – so the Texans moved to put some pressure on the current DT group with Earl Mitchell. Mitchell’s stock rose after he produced the fastest 10 yard split time in the DT group at the Combine. On tape he flashes that quickness – but he’s not consistent with it and at the Shrine Game he had a very ordinary game. I certainly wasn’t looking at Mitchell as a top 100 pick and therefore don’t think there is great value here. I think he’s a system fit on paper, but he doesn’t back that up on the field and therefore he has some boom or bust about him too much of a gamble this high for my liking.
In 2008, the Texans drafted Xavier Adibi at WLB, but he’s been unable to crack the starting lineup. So, in another attempt to replace Zac Diles the Texans took Darryl Sharpton. At 5’11 Sharpton is a little smaller than ideal but he’s a decent enough read and react type LB. Sharpton flies around and should at least make a super special teams type. He does struggle to get off blocks and misses too many tackles though, so this may have been a round early for him. After taking HB James Casey last year, the Texans went for a similar type in Garrett Graham. The Texans will be hoping he can develop as former Badger Owen Daniels has. Graham lacks top speed, but he’s a generally reliable receiver and a better blocker than one might expect for his size. In many ways he reminds me of the Saints David Thomas and it could be the Texans use him in a similar way FB/HB/TE type but quite what that means for Casey I don’t know.
To further strengthen at CB Sherrick McManis was the fifth round pick. He’s a zone type corner who has enough speed to stay with receivers deep. The main concern with him is a fairly extensive injury history and because of that this might be a little early. But he does fit the Texans system and demonstrates some ability. If he can stay healthy he could see some time fairly early in his career particularly if Fred Bennett doesn’t rediscover his rookie form.
Shelley Smith is an athletic Guard who at 6’3 could also project to Center. Smith, like Mike Iupati, tends to get his hands outside a little too much in pass protection, so will need technique adjustment but he’s a knee bender which is always a positive. He will need to get stronger to hold his blocks, but I think he has some down the road potential. Trindon Holliday must be viewed as a kick returner only in my view. Even when Charles Scott went down, LSU really struggled to get Holliday involved in the offense unlike a Brandon James at Florida. He’s very fast and clearly on kick returns that’s dangerous but his combine shuttle time was poor, so he looks to be a straight line type which will work on kick off returns. I’m not sure I would have used a draft pick on him as he’ll offer little outside of KOR and there are plenty that offer more.
Dorin Dickerson was a good value pick in the 7th round. Many had Dickerson going in the third round after his excellent combine. He played HB in college, but it looks like the Texans will try him out at WR first. His hands are OK, but not great but his size/speed combination will present some match-up problems as he’ll be too physical for a Corner and possibly too fast for a Safety. Certainly worth a look at this stage.
The Texans had a fairly large undrafted free agent class and signed a few interesting prospects. Aaron Webster S Cincinnati is the pick of the bunch for me. Webster is a very active guy who could gain a roster spot for his special teams work alone he looks to have enough range to have a future at Safety also. Cole Pemberton OT Colorado State must have impressed when the Texans were scouting Shelley Smith. Pemberton is 6’7 and although he has long arms he needs to get stronger as his initial punch isn’t the best. He could have potential with a year in the weight room. Malcolm Sheppard DT Arkansas is an undersized type who has some pass rush ability, he’s quick off the ball and has a very nice spin move. He went undrafted due to a shoulder injury which slowed him down in the off season process (sustained at the Liberty Bowl). If healthy he has a shot.
Overall, I think this was a very need based draft you look at their needs and see them addressed one after the other. Ben Tate saves the top end of the draft Jackson and Mitchell aren’t great picks for me. Graham and Dickerson are nice picks and they help special teams with Sharpton and Holliday but I think when you draft solely for need you miss out on some very good players and I think the Texans have and thus the grade suffers.
Diner Grade: D+
Indianapolis Colts
1 Jerry Hughes DE TCU 2 Pat Angerer MLB Iowa 3 Kevin Thomas CB USC 4 Jacques McClendon OG Tennessee 5 Brody Eldridge TE Oklahoma 7a Ricardo Mathews DT Cincinnati 7b Kavell Conner OLB Clemson 7c Ray Fisher CB Indiana
Many had projected the Colts taking Roger Saffold with their first round pick – but although they have an issue at Left Tackle, I don’t think Saffold is one and so I think they were correct to take Jerry Hughes rather than Saffold. With Dwight Freeney getting older (and if he loses that quickness off the ball he’ll be nothing) – Hughes can develop in his own time and then step in when required. I was surprised he got through all the 3-4 teams in the lower end of the first round as he’s an excellent pass rusher who showed enough quickness to be OK in space. He won’t have that problem in Indy where he fits their undersized pass rusher requirements. He’s a perfect replacement for Freeney not a need pick, but a great best player available pick an example of the kind of prospect the Texans missed out on by drafting on a need basis.
The Colts second round pick was the pick that surprised me the most in that round. I don’t believe anyone had Pat Angerer rated this high, yet the Colts pulled the trigger. Angerer isn’t a typical Colts LB – so it could be that they are changing things a little defensively. His biggest issue is getting off blocks he struggled a fair bit on tape and his arms were the shortest of the MLB’s at the combine backing that issue up. He’s not super athletic, but does have a nose for the ball he’ll slide down the line and then move into position to make the play. I had him down as a third day type and with OT’s like Charles Brown, Bruce Campbell and Jared Veldheer still on the board, I think the Colts missed on this one.
Kevin Thomas has already hurt his knee and will miss the season, but to be fair I won’t downgrade the draft because of this. Thomas was a late riser after running a very fast time at the Combine and again at his pro day. He’s a one year starter who had some injury problems in college (perhaps the Colts should have taken more notice) I think he was maybe a little too early as he didn’t show up particularly on tape and only went this high because of his 40 time.
I don’t like the Jacques McClendon pick at all. He’s a heavy legged waist bender who tends to be fairly slow off the ball. He can maul you, but his technique being what it is I think he’ll struggle at the next level. I had him down as a free agent type which says it all. Brody Eldridge played all over the field for the Sooners at TE, FB, OT, OG and C! He projects as a blocking TE but of concern is a neck injury he sustained as a Senior, but presumably he checked out medically at the Combine. Eldridge is another poor value pick for me his versatility is clearly a plus, but I think at least two rounds early.
Ricardo Mathews is a really intriguing prospect. He’s still fairly raw and indeed didn’t show up much until his Senior year, but I was very impressed with him on tape. He flashes some quickness off the ball, but it’s his ability to get under people and throw them off that impresses me the most. He played 3-4 DE in college, but projects to a 4-3 DT without ideal length. I think he can develop into something given a little time. Kavell Conner is another nice pick he’s a WLB type who reads the game well and makes a fair amount of plays. He needs to wrap better as a tackler and not go for the big shoulder hit, but he’s very good value at this stage and should contribute on special teams coverage units. Ray Fisher was the Colts final pick he was converted to CB from WR as a senior (despite being very productive), but the Colts have drafted him with his return ability in mind. He’s quicker than fast and might not be a threat to take it the distance with that lack of breakaway speed.
The Colts managed to sign my top undrafted player Blair White WR Michigan State. I mentioned in my AFC North review that I think he will have a better pro career than Bengals 3rd round pick Jordan Shipley and I stand by that. It would appear the reason he wasn’t drafted is because he is a very intelligent kid with a future at dental school on offer to him. The NFL wants players who are 100% committed to football and they clearly didn’t see it in White. I think teams will kick themselves over the decision to pass on him he’s a good route runner, a better athlete than you think and is just the type of kid that gets open. Ideal slot WR. I was a little surprised that Tim Hiller QB Western Michigan wasn’t drafted but scouts went with the old adage to not draft a prospect on Junior tape (see Brian Brohm to date). Hiller and the Broncos struggled in 2009 and although lacking a cannon of an arm he still has talent and could become a solid backup.
After the initial Jerry Hughes pick, it went downhill for the Colts Angerer over one of the OT’s available was a bad decision and nothing really stands out until the 7th round. Blair White adds to the grade and as much as I love Hughes, this gets a poor grade.
Diner Grade: D+
Jacksonville Jaguars
1 Tyson Alualu DT California 3 D’Anthony Smith DT Louisiana Tech 5a Larry Hart OLB Central Arkansas 5b Austen Lane DE Murray State 6a Deji Karim RB Southern Illinois 6b Scotty McGee KR James Madison
Jags GM Gene Smith is certainly looking like someone who cares little about value. Last year he traded up to take Derek Cox in the 3rd round, when he could have got him a round or more later – of course that looks better after a nice rookie year from Cox, but no matter how good a prospect turns out to be, if you can get them later then why not try and trade down or take someone else and come back to that prospect in the next round? I wonder what the Jags draft board looks like as it seems Smith really homes in on a select few and doesn’t tend to look outside of them. A very dangerous game as value isn’t there and if they have been taken already, it leaves you in trouble.
I talk value as Tyson Alualu was taken with the 10th pick in the Draft. No matter what type of pro he turns out to be, Alualu would have been there at least 10 to 20 picks later and particularly with the Jags not having a second round pick why on Earth did the Jags not trade down? Alualu played DE in a 3-4 in college and on tape looked like a protyical 3-4 DE. But he lacks the height and arm length to play the position as a pro – so the Jags have taken him with his quickness in mind (excellent 10 yard split time at the combine). At times Alualu can take over a game – but then at others he’s very quiet. Alualu’s short arms are a concern in terms of getting off blocks, but his quickness should see him disrupt well enough. He’s a nice player and good scheme fit – but the Jags could and should have traded down and picked up a second round pick. The only reason I can think of for not trading down is to avoid any flack from not taking a certain Tim Tebow.
After taking an OT with their first two picks last year – the Jags went DT again and went for D’Anthony Smith. Smith is someone who flashed on tape he can disrupt with this initial burst off the ball which is impressive for a big man. His man problem is getting off blocks he’s a little bit upright and like Alualu has short arms so again, if his initial burst doesn’t work he’s in trouble. In many ways he’s a poor man’s Alualu although a little bulkier. A decent pick at this stage.
The remainder of the Jaguars draft picks were small school types. These picks carry a little more risk as they need to make a bigger jump in level of competition to the NFL than someone who played in the SEC for example. There are plenty of good players at this level, but in selecting them one is projecting more and putting all the later round eggs in the small school basket isn’t a move I’m comfortable with.
The first of the bunch was Larry Hart who was a DE in college, but projects to OLB as a pro. This one is a curious pick as with good pass rush ability, Hart was being viewed as a 3-4 OLB candidate of course the Jags did use some 3-4 looks last year and it could be they have that in mind again this coming season (particularly as Alualu and Smith could both play in a 3-4 particularly on passing downs). Hart will certainly be a special teams coverage demon. Austen Lane was expected to go earlier than he did and is very good value. I think he may have fallen after his 10 yard split time at the combine was below average. He’s a good effort player who has good size and certainly has the frame to add some weight. I see him as a good pick and someone who can develop into a good LDE.
Deji Karim was extremely productive at Southern Illinois and got himself drafted with a superb pro day a 4.37 40 and a very fast 4.05 shuttle time it’s not often a prospect does well in both of these drills. Had the Jags not taken a KR with their next pick, I would have said he could have helped there (30.9 KOR average) but he’ll compete with Rashad Jennings to backup MJD. Scotty McGee wasn’t expected to be drafted at only 5’8 he’ll always struggle at his college CB position. But with 4.37 40 speed he can certainly help in the return game. I think the Jags could have picked him up as a free agent and got more out of this pick.
The best of the free agent class was Jason Harmon WR Florida Atlantic a guy who played TE/HB in college, but projects as a bigger WR. Harmon has good hands and is a poor man’s Dorin Dickerson. John Estes C Hawaii will compete with an undrafted free agent who I liked last year in Cecil Newton for the backup Center spot. Estes has short arms, but is a scrappy type who you wouldn’t bet against. Chris Hawkins CB LSU was someone who was expected to be a mid/late round pick, so is a nice pickup. He has decent enough speed, but was beaten deep too much and could even be viewed at Safety. He’s the type who hasn’t quite put it all together yet, but if he does you can see him becoming a decent player.
Overall, it’s a tough one to grade as the small school picks carry too much risk for my liking and two of them weren’t great value not that Gene Smith appears to care about that! The inability to trade down in the first round was inexcusable, particularly as the Jags didn’t have a second round pick they missed out on some really good players.
Diner Grade: D
Tennessee Titans
1 Derrick Morgan DE Georgia Tech 3a Damian Williams WR USC 3b Rennie Curran OLB Georgia 4 Alterraun Verner CB UCLA 5 Robert Johnson FS Utah 6a Rusty Smith QB Florida Atlantic 6b Myron Rolle SS Florida State 7a Marc Mariani WR Montana 7b David Howard DT Brown
The Titans were being linked heavily with Jason Pierre-Paul (viewed as a Jevon Kearse type) but the Giants did them a favour by picking him right under their nose. That left the Titans to take Derrick Morgan he doesn’t have JPP’s upside, but he’s a solid pick and certainly a very solid LDE type. The biggest concern with Morgan is that he really struggled against Bryan Bulaga in the Bowl game. However, the rest of the year he was solid. He has some pass rush ability, but isn’t real explosive off the ball. The best thing he does is move laterally and string plays out either making the play himself or allowing a LB to fly up and do so.
Damian Williams is good value in round 3 as he was projected as a late first rounder by some. Williams had enough questions to make him fall to this point, but he should be able to see some time in the slot initially. One of the main concerns about him is durability with two shoulder injuries in his past and a very slight frame. He doesn’t always catch the ball with his hands and will drop some but he’s quick and could also help as a PR. Rennie Curran was super productive in college. He’s only 5’10 but he’s a spark plug type very aggressive and intense. I think he’s a nice fit as he can work behind a fairly big D-Line and indeed I can see him cleaning up behind Morgan for years to come.
Alterraun Verner was picked higher than I thought, but then so were quite a few smaller CB’s. Verner plays with a swagger and is physical for a smaller guy but when he is beaten he lacks the top recovery speed to eat up the gap he also can be slow to come up on short receptions in front of him. I think he’s a better college player than pro prospect. Robert Johnson is a pick I like a lot more great value in a strong FS class. Johnson comes from a poor background but is perfectly clean off the field, so is a strong character scouts seem to be very wary of these kids, but I think it’s great to see someone use football to make something of themselves and I can’t imagine the challenges they faced in doing so. Johnson has good range and can make plays on the ball but he can also deliver the big hit. I really like him and think this is great value.
Rusty Smith was someone I thought could move up into the second day with a strong senior year. Unfortunately he hurt his non throwing shoulder midway through the season and thus his stock suffered. He’s a tall pocket passer type who has very nice ball placement I’ve been impressed every time I’ve seen him. I think he can learn for a year and then become the number two behind Vince Young. Myron Rolle is another example of an intelligent young man suffering on Draft day. He didn’t play as a senior, instead taking up a Rhodes scholarship at Oxford. Scouts really didn’t like that but, seriously, could you pass up a chance like that after working so hard? I think not. This is therefore excellent value Rolle lacks top end speed, but is active against the run and clearly isn’t going to be fooled easily. He will certainly get a look on special teams to start with and possibly more down the road.
While the Jaguars used all of their third day picks on small schoolers, the Titans waited until the 7th round to take a look at two small school types where it’s worth a gamble. Coach Fisher’s son played for Montana so clearly he saw something in Marc Mariani while watching his son no such thing as time off for an NFL Head Coach then. Mariani isn’t a top athlete, but he’s a smaller school Blair White type in that he just seems to make plays. Certainly worth the pick here. David Howard was expected to go higher than this, so another good value pick from the Titans. He’s got good size and strength (39 bench press reps) and can hold up well against the run. He also flashes some quickness and along with his intelligence and durability he’s a very interesting prospect. Clearly he may be a year or two away as he’ll not be able to have his way with NFL Offensive Lineman like he did in college he’ll need technique work, but he has the tools to develop.
The big name of the undrafted free agent class was LeGarrette Blount RB Oregon who went undrafted after his post game punch against Boise State. He never was the bell cow at Oregon sharing time every season, but he is an intriguing size/speed prospect who clearly has ability. Kevin Matthews C Texas A&M; is the son of former Oiler/Titan Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews. I didn’t think Matthews technique was that great, which came as a surprise but he’s a grafter who needs to get stronger. Stafon Johnson RB USC is lucky to be alive after a weight lifting accident in September. After several surgeries on his throat he’s now got a chance at the next level and he has enough ability to believe he can contribute particularly in short yardage and goal line situations.
This was the best draft in the division by some distance with value and quality throughout. Really only the Verner pick was questionable otherwise I can’t fault it.
NCAA Scouting
Many had projected the Colts taking Roger Saffold with their first round pick – but although they have an issue at Left Tackle, I don’t think Saffold is one and so I think they were correct to take Jerry Hughes rather than Saffold. With Dwight Freeney getting older (and if he loses that quickness off the ball he’ll be nothing) – Hughes can develop in his own time and then step in when required. I was surprised he got through all the 3-4 teams in the lower end of the first round as he’s an excellent pass rusher who showed enough quickness to be OK in space. He won’t have that problem in Indy where he fits their undersized pass rusher requirements. He’s a perfect replacement for Freeney not a need pick, but a great best player available pick an example of the kind of prospect the Texans missed out on by drafting on a need basis.
I talk value as Tyson Alualu was taken with the 10th pick in the Draft. No matter what type of pro he turns out to be, Alualu would have been there at least 10 to 20 picks later and particularly with the Jags not having a second round pick why on Earth did the Jags not trade down? Alualu played DE in a 3-4 in college and on tape looked like a protyical 3-4 DE. But he lacks the height and arm length to play the position as a pro – so the Jags have taken him with his quickness in mind (excellent 10 yard split time at the combine). At times Alualu can take over a game – but then at others he’s very quiet. Alualu’s short arms are a concern in terms of getting off blocks, but his quickness should see him disrupt well enough. He’s a nice player and good scheme fit – but the Jags could and should have traded down and picked up a second round pick. The only reason I can think of for not trading down is to avoid any flack from not taking a certain Tim Tebow.
