Pro Football Articles Opinion & Fantasy – Football Diner

NCAA Scouting
1st Round Review
by Paul Emery
May 3rd 2011
 
1. Carolina Cam Newton QB Auburn. This was widely expected to be the Panthers pick and they went true to form. Newton has as much upside as anyone in this Draft and it’s that upside that has attracted Carolina to this young man. He’s had off the field problems and I’m sure a huge part of the evaluation was whether he will work now he’s got himself first pick money. He’s extremely raw, but in making this pick I think the Panthers must be prepared to go to a spread type offense much of the time. There is considerable risk with this pick and the other negative thing is that it says their second round pick last year, Jimmy Clausen, was a waste.
 
2. Denver Von Miller OLB Texas A&M.; I have mixed views on this pick. I understand that Miller is clearly a better prospect than Marcell Dareus and I also understand that in a deep DT class they can find a Stephen Paea with their second round pick. However, drafting a 4-3 LB with the 2nd pick in the Draft is a little rich for that position. The only thing that saves it value wise is that in their nickel looks Miller can be used as a pass rusher either standing up or with his hand in the dirt. I like Miller as a 4-3 LB he showed at the Senior Bowl he can handle the read and react element but the value of the position tempers my enthusiasm for the pick.
 
3. Buffalo – Marcell Dareus DT Alabama. The big question was whether the Bills would consider a QB, but clearly they agreed with me and don’t think Blaine Gabbert is a franchise QB. With Miller off the board, who they would have surely seriously considered they moved to take Dareus. I wonder if this means they’ll move to a 4-3 defense as they already have two NT’s on the roster. I don’t like Dareus as a 5 technique on tape he looked heavy and slow far too often although his 10 yard split at the Combine was better than I thought it would be. Everyone looks at the tape of the big games and while he played well in them, I had three games this year where I thought he was poor (although an ankle injury did contribute). All in all too rich for my blood here and only if they go 4-3 can I even begin to get this pick.
 
4. Cincinnati A.J. Green WR Georgia. The Bengals certainly didn’t keep this pick a secret as most mocks had Green going here and so it was. They seemed locked into taking a WR and as shown by Atlanta paying a bunch to move up to 6 there is a big drop off after Green and Julio Jones, so it made sense to address this need with a fine WR. He’s not the best athlete in the world but he has long arms and catches comfortably away from his frame. It will now be interesting to see if they take a QB in the second round or think this pick might get Carson Palmer out of retirement.
 
5. Arizona Patrick Peterson CB LSU. At some point the value of the best player on many boards was too good to pass up and the Cardinals being a fan of value managed to find some even at 5 and pulled the trigger. Peterson gives the Cards a fine press CB who moves very well for a big kid. There’s been talk of him perhaps being a better Safety but I think that’s nonsense and only late in his career will he need to move inside. A great athlete with great return ability, he’ll be a shutdown CB in the league for 10+ years. A fine pick.
 
6. Atlanta (from Cleveland) Julio Jones WR Alabama. This was the first wow moment of the first round as the Falcons aggressively moved up into the top 10 to select another weapon for Matt Ryan. The Falcons brain trust clearly feel they aren’t far from a Super Bowl they paid a fairly high price to move up, but I like the statement of intent. Jones got everyone’s attention with a great Combine all with a stress fracture of his foot. He also broke a bone in his hand this past season, which contributed to some drops although lack of concentration was also part of this. A fine height/weight/speed pick you may have to live with a few drops though.
 
7. San Francisco – Aldon Smith OLB Missouri. I mentioned in my Underclassman tape review that I thought Smith was good enough for Carolina to consider at #1. My opinion of Smith was tempered a little by an average Combine performance, but overall I really like him. Smith has very long arms and good hand use he will need to learn to drop in coverage some, but opposite Manny Lawson the 49ers can primarily send him after the QB. With the Texans widely rumoured to be interested in Smith at 11, I like this pick better than I would have liked them picking Gabbert, despite their QB need.
 
8. Tennessee Jake Locker QB Washington. This came as a surprise to most who had Blaine Gabbert above Locker. However, I am 100% onboard with Locker and love this pick and rate him way, way above the Missouri man. The new Titans regime clearly needs a QB and Locker gives them an athletic QB who makes some really nice throws when rolling out (either left or right). His accuracy in the pocket has been done to death I think he can and will fix it he’s a great kid, hard worker and I may be in the minority, but I love the pick.
 
9. Dallas Tyron Smith OT USC. This is a pretty good fit but the value isn’t great. I saw Smith’s value in the 20’s or 30’s, so this is a little too rich for me I’m sure the Cowboys would have loved to have traded down, but couldn’t find a trading partner. Smith is a Right Tackle only for me. He looked heavy footed at times and crucially struggled for speed against Brooks Reed and Akeem Ayers this year. However, his long arms will get him out of trouble much in the way former Cowboy Flozell Adams operated. Smith was dominant against lesser competition, but I have too many concerns to really like this pick. However, I do understand the Cowboys were somewhat in a corner after they were unable to trade down.
 
10. Jacksonville (from Washington) – Blaine Gabbert QB – Missouri. Jacksonville tend to spring surprises and so it was they traded up with the Redskins to draft Blaine Gabbert who a full 7 teams with QB needs had passed on already. Gabbert was my 6th rated QB and so it’s clear I’m not going to like this pick. As a fit in Jacksonville I don’t like it at all. Gabbert will force too many balls and in a run heavy ball control offense that’s not going to go down well. I’m not sure Jack Del Rio will like this pick a veteran coach on a fairly hot seat now has a rookie QB in the first round and no second round pick to get themselves a pass rusher. I thought this would be my least favourite pick in the round, but this was trumped later in the round however, I still do not like this pick at all.
 
11. Houston – J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin. With the Texans now running a one gap 3-4 defense, this is a very good fit. Watt tested out superbly at the Combine, vaunting him to this level. He has the length to play the 5 technique and the athletic ability to cause major problems in a one gap system. Watt is one of the most solid kids in this Draft even creating his own charity in college! With so many column inches given to bad character guys, it’s great to see a good kid this high. I see this as a perfect fit I like the value and overall I love the pick.
 
12. Minnesota Christian Ponder QB Florida State. This was also seen as a surprise, but to be honest I have no problem with the pick. Ponder was my #2 rated QB and I saw him as a great fit for a West Coast offense, which is what Minnesota are looking to run. He’s more athletic than given credit for doesn’t have a great arm, but has a quick release and is extremely smart. This is perhaps a little of a forced need pick but if you don’t have a QB you aren’t going anywhere and Joe Webb isn’t the answer. So overall I like the pick.
 
13. Detroit Lions Nick Fairley DT Auburn. With Tennessee widely considered to be the landing spot for Fairley, when they went QB he fell a little to this point. The Lions saw great value with this pick and to pair Fairley with last years number one pick Ndamukong Suh was a great move. Fairley had work ethic concerns floating around him and also the concern he was a one year wonder. He also didn’t test out quite as well in the 10 yard split in the Combine as I was expecting from tape where that initial burst looked worthy of the first pick in the Draft. As long as they can keep him motivated then this will be a great pick certainly pairing him with Suh who is a very hard worker it should work out well.
 
14. St Louis Rams Robert Quinn DE North Carolina. Robert Quinn is a young man with a huge amount of upside, but as is the case with these type of picks there is considerable risk here. Quinn is a pass rushing specialist who might have to start out as a situational pass rusher only. He didn’t play last year due to an NCAA suspension so we have to go back to 2009 where he flashed top ability off the edge, but crucially against some of his better opponents struggled more. He also is a medical red flag he has a benign brain tumour which has to be checked annually and some teams may have been scared off by just too many questions. I can see why the Rams made this pick, but I’m not 100% sold on Quinn and so this pick gets a luke warm reception.
 
15. Miami Mike Pouncey OG Florida. This was another pick that was widely predicted. Pouncey is a fit in their offense and offers Chad Henne some protection the idea being to allow him to step up in the pocket more. Pouncey played Center this past year, but struggled with shotgun snaps, so for me right now he’s a better Guard. He looked far more athletic on tape than he tested out at the Combine, but after his twin brothers success last year, this looks to be one of the safer picks in the first round.
 

16. Washington (from Jacksonville) Ryan Kerrigan OLB Purdue. I was critical of the Jags on one end of this trade, but the Redskins don’t come out real well either as I think they got a little too cute in moving down. The guy they wanted was Christian Ponder who was valued around here. However, the Vikings didn’t mess around and got their man and this leaves the Redskins still in need of a QB. The other issue with this pick is that it gives them too very similar guys on the edge. Ryan Kerrigan is a little stiff in the hips and I had him as a better 4-3 prospect so this gives them a similar guy to Orakpo and I’m not sold on it from that vantage point. Kerrigan himself is a very high motor kid very safe off the field a great pass rusher who is a better athlete than most believe. However, all in all, I think the Redskins missed out on their QB and made a so/so pick.
 
17. New England (from Oakland) – Nate Solder OT Colorado. On athletic numbers alone, this pick is good value. However, from tape study this is a questionable pick. I think Solder might be a little too tall he’s not a natural flexible kid and doesn’t always bend at the knees. He therefore loses the leverage battle fairly frequently. His pass protection technique needs work he often doesn’t even use the kick/slide but tends to backpedal (which doesn’t help him bending). This is an upside pick but with the question about leverage and him not being a naturally flexible kid, I don’t like the pick.
 
18. San Diego Corey Liuget DT Illinois. Liuget is someone who many had rated as a second rounder, but I had as a first rounder all along and indeed I thought he might go higher. The Chargers were rumoured to love Kerrigan, but with him off the board I think they actually came out better. Liuget has experience at the 5 technique in college and I really like his fit to the Chargers one gap 3-4 defense. He’s very quick off the ball and consistently disrupts. He was consistent throughout the year and I think he’s going to help the Chargers immediately.
 
19. New York Giants Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska. Regular readers will know that I wasn’t quite sold on the Prince. I thought he struggled a little in press coverage and with the Combine showing he has short arms, this was explained and it’s something that isn’t going to go away. I also was concerned he was a little slow out of his breaks at times highlighted particularly in the Iowa State game where I thought he struggled. However, he is a quality young man who is the best off man CB in this Draft I have actually warmed to him via the off season process particularly Game Changers where he came over better than anyone on that show. The value is good here and it’s a solid pick.
 
20. Tampa Bay Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa. Talking of value, the widely predicted value pick here was Clemson’s DE Da’Quan Bowers but his knee must be pretty bad as he fell out of the first round. However, the Bucs wanted to add help at the position and still got value with Clayborn. The Iowa man wasn’t as productive this year, primarily because he was double teamed most of the year after his outstanding Junior year. He has a medical red flag because of Erb’s Palsy which leaves his right shoulder weak. It could mean he’s a RDE only despite the fact he’s an ideal LDE on tape. His hand use is better than anyone in this Draft though and I like the pick.
 
21. Cleveland (from Kansas City) Phil Taylor DT Baylor. This is a pick I just don’t get. The Browns have Ahtyba Rubin already and he’s a very similar kid. To pair with Rubin I would have expected more of a one gap penetrator type. Taylor also carries risk. He was kicked out of Penn State and although he has been clean at Baylor his weight was up as high as 380 lbs and only as his Senior/contract year moved forward did he lose weight and start to play well. The Oklahoma game sums him up perfectly very quiet in the first half, but then excellent in the second too bad the game was out of reach already and the Sooners had some backups in. Flashed at the Senior Bowl in practice but I thought was quiet in the actual game. I thought his value in the first round was as a 3-4 NT only and then I’d still have concerns so this pick left me puzzled, particularly as they moved up to make it.
 
22. Indianapolis Anthony Castonzo OT Boston College. I figured the Colts would go OT as Bill Polian had lamented he hadn’t taken Rodger Saffold last year (instead taking Jerry Hughes who had no sacks and only 6 tackles!). So it was they took a kid who can play Left Tackle in Castonzo. Early in the year I was worried about Castonzo Virginia Tech’s Steven Friday completely destroyed him but his play got better down the stretch. A the Senior Bowl I thought he did well, but did have some lapses and with those lingering concerns he wasn’t valued any higher despite playing a position of high value. The Colts talked about getting bigger at this position but have gone with a typical Colts type of O-Lineman with Castonzo only 311 lbs.
 
23. Philadelphia Danny Watkins OG Baylor. Andy Reid doesn’t ever go for interior O-Lineman this high, so this pick was a major surprise to me. It was also a surprise for me that a 26 year old was taken this high. I’m not as high on Watkins the player as most I think he has much to learn and that was clear at the Senior Bowl where he was called for holding one time in the game and should have been another time with a text book tackle of LB Greg Jones. I don’t think he’s athletic enough to play even Right Tackle. Yes, he’s an aggressive kid but by the time he gets it he’s going to be 30 and thinking about retirement so I don’t see any kind of value here and I don’t know if it even solves the Eagles problems at Right Guard this coming season. I usually like the same kind of O-Line prospects as the Eagles, but not in this case.
 
24. New Orleans Cameron Jordan DE California. I’d be very interested to know why all the 3-4 teams between 7 and this pick passed on this kid as it was a major shock to me he was still here this late. This is a superb value pick. Jordan can play LDE and kick inside on passing downs. He’s a very solid character off the field and has a high motor on the field. I thought he was better value in a 3-4, but that doesn’t appear to have been the opinion from the NFL. One of the best picks in the round.
 
25. Seattle James Carpenter OT/G Alabama. I mentioned above that the worst pick in the first round was to come and Seattle take the award by a country mile. Carpenter is my 14th rated Tackle and I saw him as a 4th/5th round talent!! In season Carpenter was mixed he consistently struggled against the inside move and seems to struggle to redirect once he sets up. At the Senior Bowl he looked better but still was by no means looking a first round talent. To be honest, in my Top 100, the only reason I put him in was because I knew full well that someone would push him up their board because he’s a Nick Saban coached kid (see my the Nick Saban Seal of Approval article). Borderline athletic ability to stay at Tackle. Horrible pick even Nick Saban looked shocked in the green room!
 
26. Kansas City (from Atlanta, through Cleveland) Jonathan Baldwin WR Pittsburgh. Baldwin won the battle for the third WR to come off the board. He was the only prospect this year I downgraded because of character concerns as his immaturity showed on the field of play. In the Syracuse and Kentucky games his effort was minimal and that just sent warning bells ringing in my head along with his comment that the Panthers coaching staff didn’t call plays to come his way just so he had a poor year and thus came back as a Senior! He clearly has the talent as shown against Notre Dame and Rutgers this year particularly but in a first round filled with gambles, this is one of the bigger ones and overall I don’t like it.
 
27. Baltimore Jimmy Smith CB Colorado. I guess the Ravens were trying to move this pick and failed but left things too late and actually passed on the 26th pick in the Draft. Ozzie Newsome gets a ton of credit for his work but it has to be said that timing out of your pick was a major error. Presumably they would have taken Smith anyway but who knows if they would have preferred Baldwin. In terms of character concerns, Smith had a bunch of bad press throughout this process right up to Draft day where rumours of codeine abuse early in his college career circulated. It does appear he has matured in the last two or three years after early problems at Colorado. However, he is the most confident kid in the Draft which actually crosses over a little to arrogance and that clearly rubbed people the wrong way and saw him fall this low despite having top 10 talent. I’m actually a big fan of high character players usually I don’t like a Smith type of character but for some reason I have been drawn to him and he’s one of my favourite prospects this year. He has excellent size and speed he’s a top press CB and should help a major weakness for the Ravens. Like Michael Oher who had character concerns coming out of college he lands in a strong locker room and I don’t think Smith will be a problem anymore than Oher has been (he’s been a model citizen).
 
28. New Orleans (from New England) Mark Ingram RB Alabama. It was rumoured the Saints really liked Ingram and clearly that was the case as they traded up with the Patriots to take him. There is no real value in doing so in my opinion no RB’s had gone yet and there are still some really good prospects around, so I’m not onboard with coming up to get him. My main concern with him is his poor pass protection he’s a run down only kid and those situations are getting rarer in the pass happy NFL. He’s a good receiver and a powerful runner, but like Donald Brown of the Colts I think he’ll have problems staying on the field with his lack of pass protection ability. He’s also a medical concern with knee problems.
 
29. Chicago Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin. Carimi fell lower than I thought because of medical and/or character concerns . He’s a very confident kid, but I didn’t think he crossed the arrogance line and I wasn’t concerned from interviews, although this only gives a limited picture. Carimi is a powerful kid who is a better athlete than given credit for. Mike Mayock is normally spot on, but in his summary of this kid he said he’s a limited athlete but in fact he ran a pretty good 40 time at the Combine (well above the average) and was excellent in the vertical and bench explosion drills, so that was off the mark. I think it’s a good fit, I am perhaps in the minority as I think he can be a pro Left Tackle in a Jake Long way so in turn I think the pick is better than most.
 
30. New York Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DT Temple. This is the best pick in the round for me. The value is excellent and the fit is just perfect. Wilkerson offers the ability to play any position along the defensive line outside of 4-3 DE. He can play the DT position Haloti Ngata played for the Ravens in Rex Ryan’s hybrid defense. I was thinking while writing up my DT rankings he’s the best big DT I’ve seen coming out of college since Ngata he was my number one DT completely dominant at a lower level of competition, which was my only concern. He has the power and length to two gap if called for in the hybrid but has enough quickness to one gap. Great fit and a great pick and without having to give up a bunch to trade up as the Falcons did.
 
31. Pittsburgh – Cameron Heyward DE Ohio State. Heyward fell lower than I thought I figured he would be gone in the late teens. I thought his value was to the two gap teams New England and Kansas City, but they clearly felt they had other more pressing needs. The Steelers run a 3-4 defense but it’s a one gap system which calls for athletic ability like Ziggy Hood and Heyward is more about power than quickness, so it’s not the best fit for me. He didn’t have a great overall year but destroyed Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl in a great performance and also did the same to Penn State. If he can play at that level consistently I might change my mind, but although the value is excellent, the fit isn’t for me.
 
32. Green Bay Derek Sherrod OT Mississippi State. Sherrod was the final pick of the first round. He’s an excellent run blocker in the Bulldogs run heavy offense. He was better as a Senior in pass protection, but still needs work primarily because he didn’t get a whole bunch of reps in college. He gets to the second level very well in the run game and fits the Packers run system well as he’s an athletic kid. He needs to get stronger (only 23 reps on the bench at the Combine WR Greg Little had 27) and does need work, but I don’t think there’s great pressure for him to start this year, so he can get stronger and learn for a year and should be a long time starter given that little bit of time.