NCAA Scouting 2011 Draft Review – NFC South by Paul Emery May 7th 2011
The Falcons won the NFC South in 2010 but missed out in the playoffs. They got the first round really going with a bold move into the top 10 to take a new weapon for Matt Ryan and let everyone know they think they are ready for a Super Bowl.
Atlanta Falcons
1. Julio Jones WR Alabama. The Falcons made a huge statement of intent by trading up into the top 10 and getting themselves a game changing WR. After Jones, the depth dropped off so clearly they were determined to make this happen. Jones had a fine Combine workout with a broken bone in his foot as well, although he didn’t always play as fast on tape. He’s a physical receiver who is an excellent blocker. He has had a few drops through lack of concentration, although this isn’t a major concern. Ultimately, the success of this bold move will come down to a simple fact does this push the Falcons over the top and to a Super Bowl title? If the answer is no the price they paid (second and fourth this year plus first and fourth next) will be too much. The pick certainly puts the pressure on.
3. Akeem Dent MLB Georgia. Dent is a local product who struggled at times in 2010 with Georgia moving to a 3-4. He didn’t have as good a defensive line in front of him (in 2009 Georgia had three DT’s drafted Jeff Owens (Eagles), Kade Weston (Patriots) and Geno Atkins (Bengals). However, he has a motor that doesn’t stop and showed some ability in coverage. His combine workout was better than some others in this class and gave him the edge. On balance I’m thinking this is maybe a round too early, but this was a fairly thin class, so perhaps a little forced making the lack of value excusable.
5. Jacquizz Rodgers RB Oregon State. The Falcons again moved up, but this time it only cost them a seventh round pick. Rodgers talent wise should have been off the board long ago, but his Combine 40 time in the high 4.5’s and his size (5’5 196 lbs) meant that he wasn’t seen as good value earlier in the Draft. Rodgers runs bigger than his size and indeed is very well put together, with good lower body strength. He’s hard to find being so short and then hard to tackle as he’s so low to the ground. This is a fine selection and I feel was well worth the extra pick to trade up.
6. Matt Bosher PK Miami (Fl.). Bosher took care of all the kicking duties for the Hurricanes, but he figures to get his shot as a kicker as a punter he averaged only 40 yards a punt, which isn’t good enough. However, as a kicker he demonstrates a big leg and gets good height of his kicks. I think he has the talent to stick and the plus that he kicks off well probably gave the edge on others who didn’t.
7a. Andrew Jackson OG Fresno State. Jackson had some injury problems as a Senior and didn’t play a bunch, but if healthy this could end up being a steal. He’s only 299 lbs, but is a scrappy hard working type who is one of the more solid characters in the Draft. Although 2010 wasn’t great for him he did work out well at the Combine which secured him a Draft slot. He’s worth keeping an eye on as he has talent.
7b. Cliff Matthews DE South Carolina. Matthews is also good value. He’s not super quick off the edge, but he does have some pass rush ability giving the Seahawks James Carpenter problems in that game with his inside rush. Matthews was invited to the Shrine Game, but didn’t respond to the invitation saying he never received it. This seemed to start a fall in stock. His Combine workout was decent enough and overall this pick is good value.
Overall Above Average
It’s tough to rate this Draft super high as all the eggs are in the Julio Jones basket, so it’s a little bit Jones = Super Bowl or bust. This draft is basically going to be rated much higher should Jones help push the Falcons over the top or lower if Jones and the Falcons don’t push on or regress. Rodgers should contribute as a rookie and although Dent isn’t great value he does have ability. The two seventh rounders could also make the roster. A high price for Jones equals an above average draft.
Carolina Panthers
Before getting into this draft, it’s worth mentioning the Panthers gave up their second round pick in order to obtain Armanti Edwards last year. After Edwards had a very quiet year only appearing in three games (although he clearly is a developmental type as a former college QB who should get better) right now that’s looking like a bad move as they would have been in a strong position with pick 33.
1. Cam Newton QB Panthers. If you look up a boom or bust prospect in the dictionary Cam Newton’s picture should be right there. In taking Newton with the first overall pick the Panthers are making the ultimate gamble. Newton has all the raw talent in the world he has the arm to make every NFL throw but only has one year of experience at the top level of college football and then in a very basic spread offense. The Panthers will need to run a similar system to take advantage of Newton’s natural athletic ability but also to keep it simple as making him sit in the pocket and read just isn’t going to work right away. The College game is bringing very few old school pro style QB’s through, so the NFL will have to adjust to this and the Panthers will have to do so to a large extent if Newton is to contribute as a rookie.
3a. Terrell McClain DT South Florida. McClain had a very good post season, which saw his stock rise to this level. He showed very well at the Shrine Game and earned himself a late call up to the Senior Bowl. His combine numbers were also good and so this is solid value. McClain is a classic one gap penetrator who at times was able to make some plays. However, he wasn’t consistent throughout the year and in a couple of games he was controlled. However, on balance, he should be able to get himself some playing time in the rotation as a rookie.
3b. Sione Fua DT Stanford. Fua offers more in way of getting of blocks than McClain as he has long arms and big hands. I wondered if a one gap 3-4 teams might be interested in him at NT but in this system he can play the over tackle position. Fua had a good showing at the Senior Bowl and his overall combine workout was impressive. I had him as a top 100 and like him, but I was in the minority there so while I like the value, most others probably won’t (which shows the folly of this in terms of Draft grades).
4. Brandon Hogan CB West Virginia. This was a poor CB class and by the time the Panthers came to address this position there wasn’t a huge amount of talent available. The selection of Hogan is fine talent wise but he has off the field and medical concerns. He tore his ACL in December, so is unlikely to play in 2011 (plus the Panthers can’t oversee his rehab while the lockout is in place). He also had problems staying out of trouble (DUI in September, disordly conduct citation in the Spring of 2010) much of which stems from a tough upbringing. This is an investment pick for next year, much like the Bruce Carter pick but because of Hogan’s troubles off the field carries more risk than Carter. He has talent though, thus the gamble and one teams wrestle with every year.
5. Kealoha Pilares WR Hawaii. Pilares is a former RB who didn’t quite put up Greg Salas numbers but still caught 88 passes missing two games with injury. He has experience at reading coverages in the Hawaii offense so will be able to pick up option routes very quickly. He’s a decent athlete, running in the low 4.4’s at his Pro Day. I like receivers from this offense I think they are football smart and Pilares is also reported to be a very solid character. He should push for time in the slot.
6a. Lawrence Wilson OLB Connecticut. Wilson is an undersized LB at 229 lbs who was very productive at UConn. He played the middle linebacker spot, but projects to the weakside and as a nickel LB as a pro. His Combine workout was borderline for an NFL athlete and it’s not a great combination of being smaller and slower. However, he has a knack of making plays and thus you wouldn’t bet against him.
6b. Zack Williams C Washington State. Williams has experience at Guard and Center, so can backup three interior line positions. He tested out very well at the Combine, but I thought he was too much of a waist bender on tape. He’s nice and aggressive and if he can bend more at the knees they may have something.
7. Lee Ziemba OT Auburn. Ziemba played Left Tackle for Auburn, but projects over to the right side or even to Guard for the Panthers. The best thing he does is get to the second very quickly in the run game. He struggles against edge speed and will need to get stronger, but I think this is solid value at this stage of the Draft.
Overall Above Average
I’m not a fan of the Cam Newton gamble. I’m sure other GM’s in the top 10 were pleased that someone else took this gamble. However, after this it gets better. They took another gamble with Hogan, but in a thin CB class the fourth round isn’t a huge risk. Pilares could contribute early and even Newton’s Left Tackle from Auburn, Ziemba, could push for playing time. However, overall the Newton pick drags the grade down and I also factor in the Armanti Edwards trade which cost them their second round pick.
New Orleans Saints
1a. Cameron Jordan DE California. Cameron Jordan was rumoured to be pushing for a place in the top 10 even on Draft day so it was very interesting that he fell to the 24th spot. Jordan looked to be ideal for 3-4 defenses, yet a number of 3-4 teams passed on him interesting. This is excellent value and one of the better picks in the first round. Jordan offers the ability to play outside in the base defense and then rush the pass from DT on passing downs. He has a high motor and NFL bloodlines as his father Steve was a TE for the Vikings. This is excellent value and I think Jordan can contribute as a rookie.
1b. Mark Ingram RB Alabama. The Saints were rumoured to be high on Ingram but they couldn’t pass up Jordan. They decided they had to have Ingram as well and traded back up into the first round to get him. Ingram is not a threat to take it the distance he’s an old school 5 yards and a cloud of dust type. He’s more power than speed and runs with attitude. He’s also a very reliable receiver out of the backfield. The problems outside of his 40 time are twofold firstly his knee problems are a concern (but clearly the Saints doctors cleared him) and secondly he is weak in pass protection meaning he may find it tough to stay on the field. If the Saints can bring Reggie Bush back, this could be a good pairing but I worry about pass protection you only need to see how Donald Brown has struggled to make an impact with the Colts because of such problems. This was a deep RB class and overall I think a second or third day RB would have been just as good as Ingram particularly when you consider the Saints gave up a first round pick next year as part of the deal.
3a. Martez Wilson LB Illinois. Wilson is another with medical concerns. He missed the 2009 season with a neck injury and this could have been part of the reason why he fell to the third round. The other concern were reports from his pro day where apparently he didn’t look particularly interested in the drills. He had a tough upbringing and once again we see such a kid fall in the Draft the NFL isn’t real high on this type of kid. From tape though I like the pick. He has experience at MLB and also at DE on passing downs. He’s an intense prospect with some pass rush ability and I think he offers the Saints versatility which is key in the modern game. Assuming everything is OK medically, this looks like a really good pick.
3b. Johnny Patrick CB Louisville. Most Draft websites had Patrick as a top 100 prospect, but after running his 40 time in the high 4.5’s I dropped him down. I therefore don’t see this as a great value pick. I feel the CB class was poor this year and thus this is a bit of a forced pick. From tape Patrick is a good prospect he is nice and physical and looks at his best when in press coverage. In many ways he’s a poor man’s Malcolm Jenkins I don’t know if he has the straight line speed to remain at CB and overall he’s a borderline NFL athlete. He’s shorter than ideal, doesn’t jump real high and doesn’t run real fast not the best package for a CB and thus the reason I was surprised he was taken so high.
7a. Greg Romeus DE Pittsburgh. This is very similar to the Panthers taking Greg Hardy in the sixth round last year a first round talent who has medical issues and one or two questions off the field. Romeus missed the start of the season with a back injury, but was able to return midway through the season when he tore his ACL. There’s a chance he could take play some in 2011 depending on the progress of his rehab, but more likely will be redshirted for 2012. When healthy Romeus is a fine pass rusher he flashes elite ability but is not consistent. However, at this stage this is fantastic value if healthy and motivated this could be the steal of the draft and if it doesn’t pan out then it’s only a 7th round pick so well worth the risk.
7b. Nate Bussey OLB Illinois. Bussey is an undersized LB at 228 lbs and clearly impressed the Saints when they were scouting Martez Wilson. Bussey has ability in coverage and will push for time in the nickel defense as well as helping out the special teams coverage units. While Wilson has some character concerns, Bussey is a high character type.
Overall Above Average
Only six picks for the Saints three I like a lot, the other three I’m not as sold on. I’m nudging the overall grade to above average as Jordan and Wilson should be able to contribute right away and I think both will be good players down the road. Although I’m not Ingram’s biggest fan he should be able to help in short yardage and goal line situations while he learns the nuances of pass protection. If Romeus pans out, then this will be seen as one of the best picks in this Draft.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1. Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa. There were rumblings that Clayborn was going to drop out of the first round due to his Erb’s Palsy condition but the Bucs were clearly comfortable with this and made the pick. Clayborn had a superb Junior year, but elected to return to school as a Senior. He was a marked man though and struggled to put up anywhere close to the same numbers. However, he’s got excellent hand use and is further along than any other defensive lineman in this Draft, which makes the pick good enough for me. Clayborn is faster off the edge than given credit for his 10 yard split time at the Combine was the same as Robert Quinn’s. He’s got a high motor and is very intense conditioning was a slight concern in 2010, but not a major problem. Overall, a nice pick.
2. Da’Quan Bowers DE Clemson. Bowers was a common mock pick for the Bucs but in the first round. There was much talk about Bowers knee prior to the Draft and someone who was rated as a top 5 pick when he declared falling to this spot means the knee must really be bad. After tape study I came away unconvinced with him as a top 5 pick. In a couple of games he was very quiet and left me with doubts although he did have some games where he was a real handful off the edge. He has only one year of top production and as seen with Nick Fairley that is always a concern for scouts. On talent alone he’s a mid-late first round pick so if the Bucs can manage the knee and keep him on the field then this is a good pick certainly risk vs reward seems about right here.
3. Mason Foster OLB Washington. Foster is another one of this years third round picks that buck conventional Draft value. Foster ran his 40 in the mid 4.7’s at the Combine and that usually equals day three, but it seems some teams were looking more at tape than raw numbers this year and so he was taken in the third round. Foster is a very active LB he reads the game very well and showed enough athletic ability on tape to make plays. He’s going to be playing behind a solid defensive line in Tampa, so he will be kept clean and allowed to do what he does best make plays. Solid pick.
4. Luke Stocker TE Tennessee. Stocker slipped just a little on Draft day and I think questions about his lack of ability to separate led to this. There weren’t many two way TE’s around this year and as such with there not being the supply, you would have expected someone to need a TE and take him before the fourth round. He’s not the fastest guy in the world, but I thought at the Senior Bowl he showed just enough in his routes to make him a solid third rounder. He’s fairly solid as a blocker he bends a little too much at the waist for my liking but overall this is another solid pick.
5. Ahmad Black SS Florida. Black isn’t real big or fast but he does make a ton of plays. The question is does his physical limitations mean he can’t produce at the next level against top athletes? That question led to his fall to the fifth round. Black is an in the box Safety who could get overpowered in there at 5’9 184 lbs. With a 4.7 40 time his ability in man coverage is a question. However, he can certainly be a special teams standout as a minimum and that innate ability to make big plays at key times can’t be coached. Many GM’s wouldn’t have touched Black because of his size/speed combination and as such it’s not super value even though it’s tough not to like him as a player.
6. Allen Bradford RB USC. Bradford is an interesting pick. He’s a big back who weighed in at 242 lbs at the Combine perhaps a bit heavy for some teams liking. However, despite this he ran his 40 in the low 4.5’s which is pretty good. He had a mixed season for USC not seeing a great many carries behind Marc Tyler. He only had 6 carries in November but in the last game of the season looked very good rushing for 212 yards against Notre Dame. He has talent and this could well be a steal.
7. Daniel Hardy TE Idaho. Hardy missed the last five games of the 2010 season after he broke his arm. Prior to that he had 32 receptions and was a reliable target for Nathan Enderle. He wasn’t able to workout at the Combine due to a hamstring injury but did so at his pro day running his 40 in the high 4.7’s slower than average for the position.
Overall – Good
It’s fairly obvious that top athletes have better chances of NFL success so in drafting Foster and Black they are going against conventional Draft wisdom. However, both are playmakers and I wouldn’t bet against either of them who play faster than they time. Clayborn is a solid pick and if Bowers knee holds up, that’s a good pick as well. Stocker was one of the only two way TE’s in this years Draft he will help as a short-medium range big target for Josh Freeman plus as a blocker. Allen Bradford is someone who I think could well surprise and Hardy would have gone higher had it not been for his injury as a senior. There’s not a bad pick here so it gets a good grade the only thing that drags it down is the lack of value with Foster and to a lesser extent Black.
