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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – NFC East Draft Review
by Paul Emery
May 22nd 2013
Having finished equal 12th with Mike Mayock (and ahead of Mel Kiper) in the Huddle Report’s Top 100 rankings this year, Paul Emery now rates your team’s 2013 Draft Class.
Assigning Draft grades has never been my thing, although the last couple of years I’ve done so. But many have shown much comes down to opportunity as well as talent, so I’ll avoid them this year but I will give my general impression. I’ll give a player by player analysis of each Draft pick and throw in a few of my favourite undrafted free agents (UDFA’s) as well.
I did try and watch every draftable prospect, but in some cases that wasn’t possible (access/money or time usually!) and in those cases I’ll state that and make no comment, rather than trying to fudge it or saying it was a reach just because the player wasn’t on my list of prospects or something!
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have received some criticism for their Draft, primarily because of poor value with the Travis Frederick pick. They did trade back in the first round, presumably with their board empty, so taking someone they like and fills a need isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It’s worked for the Seahawks in recent years and although I’m not the biggest fan in drafting this way, in this Draft class I can see why they made the pick. Outside of that, they managed to get very good value and the two small school DB’s in the middle rounds could come on and develop into starters. They also picked up a backup for the oft injured DeMarco Murray.
1. Travis Frederick C Wisconsin. The lack of value here has seen the pick slammed, but it’s a solid one. Many taken ahead of Frederick will be busts, so there’s something to be said in this class for getting a solid player. It is perhaps a forced need pick but the drop off after Frederick was large (Barrett Jones medical situation may have meant the Cowboys hadn’t cleared him) and so I can live with it. Frederick was asked to pull quite a bit and despite not testing out very well at the Combine he looked OK. He is a little over aggressive at times and will duck his head into contact, leaving him off balance but on the whole he was very good in the run game. He gets a little high in pass protection, so will need to learn to sit in his stance to enable him to anchor against bigger DT’s. Wisconsin has produced a lot of talent on the offensive line over the past few seasons and has built up confidence in the brand from NFL scouts and Frederick looks like the latest product.
2. Gavin Escobar TE San Diego State. Escobar is a modern day slot TE/move HB who is an excellent receiver. As a blocker he’s a position wall off blocker and certainly does not move people like a Michael Williams. He has excellent hands and makes every effort to catch everything away from his body he looks much smoother catching the ball than 49ers draft pick Vance McDonald (Rice). It seems the Cowboys want to use more two TE sets and Escobar will help early as a receiver.
3a. Terrance Williams WR Baylor. Williams was a little bit of a one trick pony in terms of his routes. Running mainly straight up the sideline, with a double move thrown in now and again he was a big play threat. However, he ran slower than expected at the Combine (low 4.5’s) and that saw his stock take a hit. He was being talked about as a first round pick during the season and certainly played faster than his timed speed. He will need to work on growing as a route runner and will need to pick up a more complex offense, but he’s a solid pick here.
3b. J.J. Wilcox SS Georgia Southern. In his first season at the position in 2012, Wilcox showed up enough to receive a Senior Bowl invitation. Playing mostly in a Cover-2 system for Georgia Southern, he was able to show some natural man coverage ability in Mobile. Coupled with his kick return ability the former RB is solid value here. The main area for him to improve is his angles he got away with them at times because his speed stood out at his level of play but he did come up the field too far a few too many times and took himself out of plays. With only one year at the position, he should continue to improve quickly he may need a year to learn but longer term he could be very good.
4. B.W. Webb CB William and Mary. I watched Webb for William and Mary three times and really I could have saved myself 9 hours, as no one threw at him not even Maryland in the season opener. It was therefore very difficult to form an evaluation from his college tape. He did receive a Senior Bowl invitation and I thought he had a good week in Mobile and coupled with his punt return ability, I thought it would mean a day two selection. So the value here is good. Webb showed in Mobile that he’s not afraid to get up and press he played more off in college and he has a nice break on the ball. His tackling can be a little inconsistent, at times he seems to shy away from contact. He could start out over the slot WR and help in the return game, but despite not being sure of him from college tape I think his Senior Bowl week and Combine numbers deserved a slightly higher placing.
5. Joseph Randle RB Oklahoma State. As with a couple of other RB’s in this class, I seemed to be a curse on Randle. Fortunately in games I was catching up on after the season, I watched Bedlam and he had a really good game. Randle is an all around back who can catch and looks comfortable in pass protection. He broke some long runs in his career, but did not test out that well at the Combine. It seems he’s a little hesitant at times, so perhaps may be better served being a little less patient and just hitting the hole. He’s solid value here, I wasn’t overly high on him but because he can do a little bit of everything, it’s fair enough.
6. DeVonte Holloman OLB South Carolina. Holloman is a converted strong safety who took over from Antonio Allen (round 7 2012, Jets) at the Spur LB position in 2012 (over the slot WR in nickel, strongside LB in base). He played at a higher weight in 2012 but still struggled at times to hold up in the box. He is very active and physical and should star on special teams from day one. He’s extremely comfortable in space and may also push for time in the nickel.
Top UDFA’s
Brandon Magee (LB, Arizona State) leads a decent UDFA class. Magee was the guy who got Vontaze Burfict lined up correctly in 2010 and when Magee missed 2011 with injury Burfict struggled. Magee didn’t put up great workout numbers, but he can play. Jakar Hamilton (FS, South Carolina State) transferred from Georgia where he couldn’t beat out Shawn Williams or Bacarri Rambo (both drafted, so no shame in that) but he has experience over the slot WR and could stick. Dustin Harris (CB, Texas A&M;) had his struggles at CB but is a very good returner and his best chance at a roster spot will come in that role. Kendial Lawrence (RB, Missouri) had some big runs in 2012 and is very much worth a look. Dalton Williams (QB, Akron) was a transfer up from the FCS (Stephen F. Austin, where he was a backup) he stood out when I watched Akron and I think has some potential, although perhaps more a CFL than NFL starter. Jeff Heath (FS, Saginaw Valley State) is an explosive athlete who flashed into plays he should be a special teams star.
New York Giants
Drafting two of my favourite players this year with their first two picks and then taking another two I really liked next means it’s one of the top classes for me. Considering Damontre Moore’s tape is of first round level, getting him in the third round could prove to be a steal certainly it is very much worth the risk of the pick. Cooper Taylor in the later rounds is a big safety, who could find a niche as a nickel LB.
1. Justin Pugh OT Syracuse. I had Pugh in my guard rankings rather than tackle due to his short arms, but it seems the Giants are going to try him at right tackle and see how he gets on. From a tape stand point, it was very clear that Pugh was a first round pick. From the first game I watched, his quick feet stood out in a big way. Going into the Senior Bowl week (the first junior to appear in the game he had already graduated) he wasn’t rated high (mid rounds by some), so I thought he could rise up media boards significantly with a big week. Unfortunately his arm measurement stole his thunder and it wasn’t until after the Combine that his stock started to rise. He was my number two rated guard, but if ranking him against the other OT’s, I would have put him third behind Joeckel and Johnson so I love the pick. His short arms are a limitation, but he has the athletic ability to make up for it he may always struggle against bigger/stronger ends with long arms just because he won’t be able to keep them off him. So, added bulk and strength are needed to help him here but a very talented prospect.
2. Johnathan Hankins DT Ohio State. Hankins was my number one rated DT and indeed one of my favourite players this year, so this is another pick I love. Often played out of position in 2012 by a new coaching staff, he was lined up at DE in a hybrid 3-4 front (OLB up at the line where a 4-3 DE would line up; Hankins opposite at a five technique position, but at times a seven technique) and it did not suit him. It also led to him wearing down as the season went on a 320 lb man chasing everything from that spot will mean he tires (he didn’t rotate as much as guys like Sharrif Floyd or Sheldon Richardon either). I didn’t sense he had any momentum in the post season process, so I was pleased he still went relatively high. The Giants can line him up further inside and this is where he comes alive. Certainly in the first three quarters of the season he was outstanding. A quick look at LeVeon Bell’s stats will show how his lowest output was against Ohio State and Hankins was the main reason. He’s big and powerful, will penetrate with a good initial burst and also win with power. He’s a nice fit and I like him to make an impact early in his career. The fit is good as he can form part of a rotation and so should be fresher late in the year than he was in college.
3. Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M.; This class had two very interesting pass rushers with far better tape than workout numbers. Jarvis Jones actually tested out worse than Moore, but there didn’t seem to be the maturity/work ethic concerns that surrounded the Texas A&M; man. A young 20 years of age, this is a nice landing spot for him with a Head Coach who will make him work and a veteran laden locker room that will hold him accountable. Moore put up big numbers in the SEC and looked explosive as a pass rusher. Although his 40 time was not good at the Combine, he did at least put up excellent numbers in the vertical and broad jumps to confirm that explosion. He’s not a classic speed rusher, but he does have the athletic talent to win with his explosion off the snap. He will need to get stronger and improve his hand use, but his tape was certainly far better than a third round slot.
4. Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse. It must have been a difficult couple of days for Nassib. Even on the day of the Draft there were some people mocking Nassib to the Bills at pick number eight. After the Bills traded down and passed on him in the middle of the first round, his stock plummeted. It’s tough to say everyone who liked him was wrong but I think the media as a whole (me included) was pushing this QB class up the board because in recent drafts that had always happened. Even with the knowledge that wasn’t going to happen, I still think Nassib was worth a day two pick. His arm strength looked good to me on tape but some who saw him live questioned it (but not all which is part of the reason I started watching more and more games to work it out for myself!). The key concern with him is lack of touch and I’m not sure that’s something that he’ll ever get out of but he will have better WR’s now who should be learn to catch his fastball. A high character prospect off the field, I feel bad that he’s landed behind an obvious starter and indeed it’s worse than Kirk Cousins last year as at least he knew RG3’s style might (and did) lead to injury. Eli never misses games, so we may not see him in the regular season until after his four year contract expires. But he should be a really nice backup for that time for the Giants.
5. Cooper Taylor SS Richmond. Taylor was originally at Georgia Tech, but after some medical problems transferred down. For him to be placed here, the Giants must have been comfortable with his medical. Taylor is a bigger safety, to the point where the Giants may try him at LB particularly in the nickel. He played in a Cover-2 system for Richmond, where he showed he can get downhill and hit. He also showed he can read the QB’s eyes and break on the ball. His size and athletic ability should mean he stars from day one on special teams and it will be interesting to see if the Giants see him as part of the answer to stopping the RG3 zone-read a big safety getting downhill quickly to help set an edge could work
7a. Eric Herman OG Ohio. I only saw Ohio the once and Herman didn’t particularly stand out he looked slow footed and too upright in pass protection, but did show some power in the run game. His Combine workout wasn’t great, but he did put up the bench 36 times which may have been enough for the Giants to take a late round look.
7b. Michael Cox RB Massachusetts. I didn’t have Cox on any of my lists, so didn’t watch UMass this year, so am unable to comment.
Top UDFA’s
A very small class for the Giants, but they still signed three players who have a shot. Charles James (CB, Charleston Southern) isn’t that big and didn’t run a blazing 40 time at his Combine but he’s physical and can play. I enjoyed watching him so much one weekend, I ended up watching another game straight after! Etienne Sabino (LB, Ohio State) had some injury problems, but if he can stay healthy he should make a strong push for the roster. Kenny Miles (RB, South Carolina) is the only other name that stands out he saw more time after Marcus Lattimore got hurt and had some flashes.
Philadelphia Eagles
No one quite knew what to expect from the Eagles, but they ended up with a fairly solid group. Matt Barkley and Jordan Poyer were excellent value and Lane Johnson could well be the best OT in this Draft class in three years time.
1. Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma. Johnson came into the year rated as a late round pick, so enjoyed a meteoric rise to the fourth pick of the Draft. A two year starter after a position change from DE (previously a junior college QB and TE), he started at left tackle in 2012 moving over from the right side to replace Donald Stephenson (round 3 2012, Chiefs). Armed with my pre-season rankings list, it was clear on my first watch of Johnson that he was better than a late rounder. I waited for the Texas game and although Jackson Jeffcoat was hurt in the first half, when up against him he won every battle so I thought potentially a top 100 pick. After continuing his level of play during the season, he then had a really good Senior Bowl week to push him into the first round discussion. He completed things with an amazing Combine workout, running faster than some TE’s. He needs to get a little stronger as anchoring was an issue at times, but against speed rushers he should be just fine. Certainly he has all the tools to be a top left tackle and indeed his hand use was very good for someone who has only played the position for two years clearly he just gets it.
2. Zach Ertz TE Stanford. Like the 49ers, the Cardinal employ a number of TE’s and Ertz was often lined up in the slot. Too big and physical for a DB and too fast for a LB, he’s a matchup nightmare which is what the pro game is all about. Ertz is not a great blocker and indeed in certain packages he wasn’t on the field but I don’t think the Eagles will be too worried about that. He can be used in the slot or as a move HB type and should be a very nice weapon for Coach Kelly to employ. Interestingly from tape I thought he looked like a better athlete than Tyler Eifert (round one, Bengals) but his Combine numbers were very much second best to the Notre Dame man. He has very soft hands and looks very natural catching the ball. He uses his body to box out defenders, which was too easy against DB’s. Better on the field than in shorts at the Combine this is very good value and should be productive early.
3. Bennie Logan DT LSU. I could see the potential with Logan, but I was waiting for him to come on as Michael Brockers did in the 2011 season, but he never really did it. About half way through the 2011 season, Brockers started to use his hands and arm length to his advantage and although Logan has long arms, he never quite figured out how to use them. So, I was a little surprised by him going here outside of his potential. I don’t know if he’ll contribute hugely as a rookie unless the light suddenly comes on. This seems a little pick like a forced need pick for the new 3-4 in a year which wasn’t great for defensive lineman and has a little boom or bust about the pick certainly if he plays as he did in 2012, I think he’ll struggle.
4. Matt Barkley QB USC. Quite whether Barkley would have been a top five pick had he come out after the 2011 season we’ll never know but perhaps some of the concerns that saw him fall to day three would have seen a slide to this level anyway. Not blessed with a cannon for an arm, Barkley did not enjoy a great 2012 particularly the last month before a shoulder injury sidelined him. On a team that was struggling somewhat, he tried to force too much and threw too many interceptions. He fits the style of offense they want to run in Philadelphia and his touch and quick release should see him in contention for the starting job. If he plays within the system and doesn’t press too much he might end up starting at some point in his rookie year and end up being excellent value. Certainly I can see his limitations, but I can also see the polish with his footwork, release and touch I think he’s better than a fourth rounder, perhaps doesn’t have huge upside but he can play right away if needed and I think you can be fairly confident in his level of play.
5. Earl Wolff SS North Carolina State. Draft grades at this stage are mad most will see this as solid value, but some will be saying steal it all depends on how you graded the prospect before the Draft. Talking about risers just before the Draft Mike Mayock stated on Path to the Draft that Wolff may well go in the third round, but won’t get out of the fourth well he did (Mayock would have looked great on day two had that come to pass, so only fair his misses get shown up). So I guess to save face, Mayock (and those that copied him) think steal! and those who didn’t suddenly push him up their boards don’t! I never had Wolff rated that highly I think he can star on special teams however, so this is decent value!
7a. Joe Kruger DE Utah. A junior entry, Kruger almost joined the rather large group of early entries who went undrafted. A tall DE at 6’6 he’s better suited to the 3-4 he will play as a pro, rather than the 4-3 DE he was in college. He still must work on bending at the knees far better his first move post snap is usually straight up and he will struggle if that continues as a pro. He does have a high motor and some power but I wasn’t a massive fan from tape study.
7b. Jordan Poyer CB Oregon State. Poyer’s fall this far is bemusing. I’m fully aware CB’s must run a fast 40 time to get drafted high, particularly this year with a number of really good prospects. However, seeing Logan Ryan go in the third and Poyer here is just crazy. Eagles fans can be really pleased as I would take Poyer even in the third round ahead of Ryan every single time and to be honest in my own way I did take Poyer as I elected for him ahead of Ryan in my top 100 (knowing everyone else was going Ryan, I did play the game more this year but my refusal here shows why I’ll never win the competition but I better Poyer is the better pro which there’s no competition for!). Poyer had some very good tape he’s a classic click and close CB with a really nice break on the ball. He had a very good Senior Bowl week getting very physical with a good group of WR’s and he looked set for a top 100 placing. Then a poor Combine workout, including a 40 in the mid 4.5’s became a red flag. Interestingly at his pro day he elected not to run the 40 again and I wonder if there was some concern about his attitude as that did seem a very strange decision. Perhaps there were some off the field concerns he did have one arrest so who knows but from tape this is a major steal.
7c. David King DE Oklahoma. Playing DT in a rotation for the Sooners, King projects as a DE in the new Eagles 3-4. I did see Oklahoma a lot, but I don’t have many notes for King. I did spend a couple of games paying close attention to the three senior DT’s, but they all looked much of a muchness to me and not really draftable. I guess at this stage if the Eagles saw something then fair enough I would have needed to study him more closely to be really fair to the pick and I must admit I didn’t outside of him not jumping out at me.
Top UDFA’s
Miguel Maysonet (RB, Stony Brook) highlights a relatively small class for the Eagles. Maysonet was hurt in post season play and that saw him workout late in the process not giving him enough momentum to be drafted (often the way with small schoolers). He’s an electric back with big play ability and Eagles fans should check out his TD run against Syracuse for an example. Russell Shepard (WR, LSU) thought about coming out after the 2011 season and perhaps should have his production dropped off a cliff and indeed he had more carries (20) than catches (6) in 2012. Brad Wing (P, LSU) was an early entry but a punter with off the field red flags clearly wasn’t for the NFL in terms of a draft pick. He has an NFL leg for sure and the Australian has the talent to make it. Jake Knott (LB, Iowa State) missed the second half of the season with a shoulder injury but when healthy is a mid round level talent I’m assuming his medical was a concern.
Washington Redskins
With no first round pick after the RG3 trade, the Redskins had to wait until day two to get things underway. They spent three picks on DB’s and the two safeties particularly were very good value. Jordan Reed is a nice pass catching weapon for their young QB’s (Kirk Cousins may start the season, expect him to fetch a high pick in a pre-2014 Draft trade if RG3 is healthy) and the two Florida State prospects in round five, when healthy, could really help.
2. David Amerson CB North Carolina State. Had Amerson been draft eligible after the 2011 season we could have been talking about him as a first round pick. However, he had to return for another year and 2012 wasn’t good for him. He started the season poorly against Tennessee and seemed to be playing flat footed looking for the big play. Unfortunately the big plays were made against him and in the Miami game he was beaten deep on multiple occasions. That seemed to be enough for the coaching staff who got him to get back to his fundamentals and he did play better down the stretch, but clearly his 2012 tape was not good. He’s a bigger CB with good speed he played mostly in a Cover-2 scheme off the line and looking to break on the underneath routes. I did wonder if he was expecting more safety help over the top, but on the V2 Press Coverage podcast he did put his hand up and say it was his fault (either that was the case or he wouldn’t throw a team mate under the bus). It could be he’s tried at free safety he’s a real ball hawk and could project there well enough. An interesting pick, if he can recapture his 2011 form then they will have a first round equivalent with this pick.
3. Jordan Reed TE Florida. Reed did not run well at the Combine, but I’m not sure he was 100% healthy. He did workout again at the Sharrif Floyd pro day, but the numbers from that never made it out (getting these numbers the past two years has been really tough and frustrating). As a receiver he’s very much worth this spot but he is not a blocker at all, so likely is a slot or move HB guy only which in this offense should see him earn enough playing time to warrant the pick. The only blot on his tape as a receiver was a crucial fumble late in the game against Georgia but otherwise he looked like a very nice weapon. Without his pro day numbers it was a little difficult to slot him into a round and therefore also to judge the value but from tape I think it’s sound.
4. Phillip Thomas FS Fresno State. Thomas fell a little and from tape study it would seem concerns with his angles and tackling were the reason. Certainly against smaller/quicker players he really struggled (see the Oregon game particularly). However, as a ball hawk he was worthy of a day two spot, so I like the value. He also has some experience covering slot WR’s, but I think is a much better prospect as a classic centre fielder. He led the nation in interceptions in 2012 after missing 2011 with injury.
5a. Chris Thompson RB Florida State. Thompson missed much of 2011 with a back injury, but returned in 2012 and was on his way to a big year when another injury struck (torn ACL). Clearly a medical risk, he does know what it takes to come back from a major injury and when healthy will offer a change of pace in the backfield, so a round after Marcus Lattimore I think the value is fair enough. The only comment I have about the value is that his medical was presumably more of an issue than Andre Ellington’s hamstring and they’ve passed on the Clemson man… Thompson is a very shifty back, he can cut sharply without dropping his speed and despite not being a big back, he runs with good lean and can break tackles. Hopefully he can get back to 100% as he was fun to watch.
5b. Brandon Jenkins DE Florida State. Coming into 2012, Jenkins was ranked as a first round pick by many including myself. In the first half of the season opener, he suffered a foot injury and what was reported by the TV commentators as being a minor issue ended up costing him the season. He was not healthy enough to workout at the Combine and I don’t think was at his pro day but he ran the 40 anyway and turned in a poor time in the low 5.0’s. This number prevented him from making a move back up boards and certainly is not reflective of how fast he plays on tape. More of a one trick pony (speed rusher) minus that speed he clearly wasn’t viewed as the same prospect. However, when he gets back to 100% (and the lisfranc injury might be tricky, but it’s not going to be career ending) the speed will come back and this may end up being one of the steals of the Draft. On pure tape alone, I thought he was better than Bjoern Werner who was a first round pick.
6. Bacarri Rambo FS Georgia. Rambo was another safety that fell, but more so even than Thomas. Rated as a top 100 talent by many, he did have off the field red flags and coupled with an average pro day, he dropped far more than I thought he would. Like Thomas he’s best as a centre field ball hawk so it could be the Redskins let them compete in camp for that role I have no problem with attacking a weakness with two picks, better than relying on one pick who might not work out I don’t think Thomas and Rambo will both bust. There may be some concern about Rambo athletically, which may see him used as a SS. Rambo showed some man coverage skills at the Senior Bowl, so he could be matched up against TE’s. In the era of interchangeable safeties, he could even line up next to Thomas moving forward. The value on the field is superb, but there is risk off the field and that was clearly something all teams weren’t comfortable with until the Redskins opted to use this late round flyer on him.
7. Jawan Jamison RB Rutgers. I was guilty last year of not watching Alfred Morris enough I saw him for FAU once against Michigan State and he was poor with their O-Line outmatched he did nothing (only watched that one game and it was the wrong one). So I didn’t think much of the player and clearly was badly wrong fortunately I wasn’t alone! I did much more work on Jamison as when he declared for the Draft he was thought of as a mid round pick. However, a slow 40 time saw him fall but Morris didn’t run well against the stopwatch either so I’m sure the Redskins didn’t really care. Jamison started the season pretty well production wise, but then fell away failing to break the 100 yard barrier after his 114 yard effort against Temple in mid October. He ran for only 21 yards on 13 carries in the Bowl game and I didn’t feel he had a great platform as a redshirt sophomore, but came out anyway hopefully he doesn’t regret his decision. I wasn’t that high on him if I’m honest, but Mike Shanahan drafting him makes me think I missed something we shall soon see I guess!
Top UDFA’s
Xavier Nixon (OT, Florida) is the stand out from this class. Highly touted coming out of high school, he never lived up to that potential, but did play better in 2012. He’s a right tackle type who has the right idea technique wise and was the only OT I saw all year who was able to keep Tank Carradine (round 2, 49ers) quiet. Jeremy Kimbrough (ILB, Appalachian State) is shorter than ideal, but he can hit he is a little like former Redskin H.B. Blades. Skye Dawson (WR, TCU) has some return ability not very big, but has quickness. Devonte Christopher (WR, Utah) came into the year with a mid round ranking, but didn’t have a great year but worth a look to see if he can get his 2011 form back. Brandon Sharpe (DE/OLB, Syracuse try out) flashed pass rush ability taking over from Chandler Jones certainly very much worth the try out look.
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