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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – Safety Rankings
by Paul Emery
April 18th 2013
For new readers it’s worth quickly going through how I do things. If you are looking for a consensus ranking or something that copies from elsewhere, then this isn’t the place! I watched 278 games this year, I like to watch full games rather than the cut up prospect clips on YouTube (which I do use to break ties or where I can’t get full games), so I can get into the flow of the game and really understand when a big play is needed etc. I try and watch the top prospects at least 6 times, the middle rounders 3 to 5 and the later rounders at least a couple of times. I rate each game I see, work out an average and then build in the Combine/Pro Day numbers (see my two Combine articles).
These rankings are therefore my personal position boards and are in no way meant to predict who will be taken first in the Draft. Someone might be taken in the top 10, but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think he will make it in the NFL after all there are busts every year, so why shouldn’t rankings differ?! I’m sure NFL teams boards vary far more than the media believe.
I have no contacts in the NFL and have kept it that way on purpose so their opinions don’t change my mind. I always trust what I see on tape. However, this does mean I am not party to which players are character or medical red flags outside of what is in the media. I take into account medical to a degree, but will ignore character red flags outside of a mention in the text as I don’t know these prospects personally and it’s unfair to judge them (e.g. last year I had Janoris Jenkins as my number one CB). With that said, let’s get started with the offensive tackle class.
This is an interesting group. My first impressions were that it wasn’t a great class once again, but a number of prospects grew on me as the season progressed. However, there do seem to be questions post Combine with some and so in all it’s a group which could see anywhere from five to ten go in the top 100 picks and the final number could well come down more to team needs than sure fire top 100 talent. There is one elite prospect that is number one overall on my board, deserving of a top 10 pick despite the position not being particularly valued. There is certainly depth and I would expect some day three prospects to become NFL starters.
Tier One
1. Kenny Vaccaro Texas. The easiest player to rank in the entire Draft class. I don’t feel this Draft contains much in the way of elite talent and Vaccaro might be the only true such prospect in the entire class. His skill set also just happens to fit exactly what the NFL is looking for at the safety position. Vaccaro is extremely versatile, having experience over the slot WR (most of the time in 2012) as well as in deep centre fielder. When over the slot WR he is superb with his jam at the line he did a great job against Tavon Austin in the West Virginia game and with his length and size also can match up against TE’s in the slot. He has experience blitzing off the edge and will get involved in the run game. He had some missed tackles (Joseph Randle TD run in the Oklahoma State game for example) but that’s the only real concern with him. Better than Mark Barron last year, I think teams in the top 10 would be mad not to consider him in this class.
Tier Two
2. D.J. Swearinger South Carolina. I’ve had Swearinger here all year and even a slower than ideal time at the Combine isn’t going to make me change my mind. Swearinger is a real enforcer over the middle and indeed after UAB wound him up, he took it out on a WR and a vicious hit earned him a suspension in the next game. Against Arkansas he received three personal fouls in three plays the third after throwing the ball in the stands after a pick six! That’s the primary thing he needs to clean up and certainly with the new safety rules, he will need to try and lower his target area when hitting. It’s his comfort in man coverage which really sees him ranked this high, he has experience at CB and it shows. Used mainly in off coverage, he looks really comfortable and as Tyler Wilson found out, can bait a QB and then break very quickly. He hasn’t been ranked this highly elsewhere, but seems to be creeping up boards the closer we get to the Draft which suggests teams like him more than the media has done.
3. Duke Williams Nevada. Most media outlets rank players by where scouts tell them they are going to be taken. So with Williams having off the field red flags (under aged possession of alcohol in 2009 and driving with a suspended license in 2011) and unlikely to be taken until day three, he won’t be ranked this high anywhere else. I saw a great deal of Nevada in 2010 and 2011, but following a conference move not as much in 2012. However, I think Williams is a comparable talent to Swearinger. He was a late addition to the Senior Bowl and in the game did exactly what he always does get around the ball. Like Swearinger he’s a big hitter, throughout his career there were some highlight reel hits and one in the Bowl game is worth finding on YouTube. The exciting thing with him is, like Swearinger, he also has experience in coverage over the slot receiver. He has a little more inconsistency in this area than the South Carolina man but it’s there and I can see a defensive co-ordinator being very excited with what he can with Williams. Versatile, productive and an enforcer.
Tier Three
4. Jonathan Cyprien Florida International. Cyprien is a good looking athlete who looks very comfortable in man coverage and with his size is a nice answer to the plethora of TE’s in the league. However, in zone coverage he’s not as good and indeed Arkansas State picked on him with fake zone-reads, which he bit on hard and often, so I’m not sure he will be for everyone. In some ways he’s a little like Eric Fisher a very good post season, but when you go back and watch tape on him in a non-AQ conference it’s not always that good. In the end that man coverage ability sees him ranked fairly high on a general board it is tough to rank guys that don’t do everything well, but are very good at some things…
5. Eric Reid* – LSU. Reid did not have a great 2012, particularly the first half of the season. I wondered if he had added a bit too much weight as he didn’t look as explosive as in 2011. His play did improve later in the year, so perhaps he dropped his weight back down. The key concern for me with Reid is the lack of ability to cover man to man he looks OK in off man when routes are run in front of him, he has a decent break on the ball although perhaps takes a couple of steps to accelerate up to full speed. However, he doesn’t look loose in the hips to be able to deal with double moves or to turn and run down the field. By the time he got to the Bowl game his explosiveness as a tackler was back. Best in a zone heavy scheme has good speed and therefore range at FS.
6. Bacarri Rambo Georgia. In general I am putting prospects that can cover man to man quite high up the board, but there is still a place in the league for the classic deep centre fielder and that’s what Rambo does best. He was suspended for games in both 2011 and 2012 both for inadvertent ingestion of marijuana which you can make of what you will Has limited experience in man coverage generally only asked to do so on blitzes and then it’s off coverage. He doesn’t open up too early, which is often the case even with CB’s so there is some promise there. Very good as a FS doesn’t let people get behind him is always deeper than the deepest WR. Has good range and is a real ball hawk. Will get downhill in the run game, but tackling and angles are a little inconsistent. He’s perfect for a team that uses a single high free safety.
Tier Four
7. Matt Elam* – Florida. Elam’s rank is all over the place, from first to mid rounds and this is because he doesn’t do everything well. Experience in a pro style defense will appeal to NFL teams that run a similar scheme, but he’s not good in man coverage and it limits his grade on a general board (particularly when more and more teams ask their safeties to cover slot WR’s or TE’s man to man, so I am looking for this). His height is a concern (5’9), but more for me is that he doesn’t change directions well. In zone coverage he’s better and he’s also very comfortable in the box. I found him a little inconsistent on tape twice I thought he played no better than a day three prospect and it dragged his rating down. Needs to land in the right system, so quite difficult to rank not knowing his destination.
8. Shamarko Thomas Syracuse. In some ways is like Elam shorter even than the Florida man at 5’8 and not all teams will be comfortable with him because of that. Primarily either an in the box or downhill run filler has a thick frame and can hit. Not always asked to cover man to man, but showed some intriguing glimpses and combined with good Combine numbers, has some upside. Ran in the low 4.4’s at the Combine which has seen his stock rise. Only limited experience in man coverage, but looked natural doing so and with the speed it leads him to a high ranking.
9. T.J. McDonald USC. A college Cover-2 safety with some inconsistent tape. However, he looked good in man coverage against Tyler Eifert in the Notre Dame game and again during Senior Bowl weel and tested out very well at the Combine, so that’s rescued his stock somewhat. I did wonder from tape if his 10 yard split time would be slow as it looked like he takes a few steps to get up to speed, but that number was one of the fastest in the safety group so perhaps he just doesn’t trust his eyes. Like D.J. Swearinger was flagged for a number of personal fouls, so needs to clean that up (generally for hits but one for taunting against Arizona). Has some inconsistencies to his game with poor angles and missed tackles often going for the knock out shot, but has talent.
10. Phillip Thomas Fresno State. Thomas is a little like Rambo, better as a deep centre fielder and indeed he was highly productive in 2012 interceptions wise (led the nation in interceptions in 2012 after missing 2011 with a broken leg). He can get downhill and support the run but his angles and tackling are concerns, it seemed particularly against smaller/quicker players as on display in the Oregon game particularly (also some missed tackles against Boise State). He does have experience in man coverage, but plays flat footed in off man so I think you can get behind him. Will be best as a single high free safety.
Tier Five
11. J.J. Wilcox Georgia Southern. Wilcox was in his first season at safety in 2012, having been a triple option RB. He had a good enough season to get a Senior Bowl call up and had a solid week in Mobile. It’s clear from tape that he’s still learning the position. His angles are the biggest problem, he’ll get himself too far upfield and even with good speed he can’t recover. He played mostly in a Cover-2 system, but on the occasions he was asked to cover man to man he looked very natural as he did at the Senior Bowl. Clearly has upside as he’s just learning the position plus he tested out well at the Combine, but he will need a little time. Can also help in the return game, where his RB skills show up.
12. Shawn Williams Georgia. Played more in the box than team mate Bacarri Rambo, but did not always stand out on tape (especially in the Alabama game, readymade for an in the box safety). Has limited experience in man coverage, but looked OK when asked to do so. Showed flashes of explosiveness as a tackler, but like most of the Georgia defense was not consistent. Ran well at the Combine, so projects well as a deeper zone safety or in man coverage but didn’t quite put it all together in college.
13. Tony Jefferson* – Oklahoma. A college Cover-2 safety, but unlike T.J. McDonald did not put up good numbers at the Combine, so when projecting him in man coverage there are more questions than answers. May suit a team like Minnesota down to the ground, but on a general board I feel he has to be ranked down here as he doesn’t have the skill set that the vast majority of teams are looking for. When asked to cover man to man his backpedal didn’t look that smooth and his transition from backpedal to turning and running with his man looked poor he also didn’t locate the ball well in the air. Generally very good coming downhill, a few missed tackles but equally some really good games where he diagnosed quickly and got heavily involved. Limited appeal, but in a Cover-2 will be fine.
Tier Six
14. Don Jones Arkansas State. Played the Wolf LB role which is a bit like South Carolina’s Spur LB. In the box against 2 WR sets but over the slot WR in 3 or 4 receiver sets. Not the biggest (5’11 191 lbs) but shows press coverage ability and can deliver the big hit. Will draw too many personal fouls and needs to clean that up. Footwork is a little choppy at times but can stick his foot in the ground and break up on pass or run. Has experience as a blitzer and should be a star on special teams.
15. Jahleel Addae Central Michigan. Scouts will have flocked to Central Michigan to see Eric Fisher but Addae will have given them something to look at when the defense was on the field. Not the biggest at 5’10 195 lbs, but extremely active. Most often played over the slot WR and indeed with most MAC teams in the spread he spent the majority of his time in that role. Very similar to Don Jones above in role, solid tape as well as size. Looks very instinctive in zone coverage, but lacks a recovery burst in man coverage.
16. Jakar Hamilton South Carolina State. Transfer from Georgia where he couldn’t crack the starting lineup behind Rambo and Williams (both ranked above, so no shame in that). Versatile prospect who was asked to do a number of things – some deep centre field; some bracket coverage with LB under and him over the top and some man coverage of the slot WR. Really looks the part, moves very well and looks instinctive. Must wrap better will just put the shoulder in and pop his man down but has talent.
17. Rontez Miles California (PA). Small school safety with good size that was good enough to get invited to the Combine where he had a decent workout. Very active downhill safety that at minimum should make a roster for special teams coverage. Limited experience in man coverage in college but showed very good range and reading of the game. May suit a Cover-2 team best.
Tier Seven
18. Robert Lester Alabama. Very good in college as a single high safety, but when asked to cover man to man he really struggled (see Texas A&M; game). Did not put up good numbers at the Combine, which saw his stock really slip. Tough to TV scout in many games as he was often off the TV screen. Did not play well in zone against Texas A&M; either but outside of this was reliable with his angles and tackling. Limited athletic upside and may not be athletic enough to be what he was in college, likely suits a Cover-2 best.
19. Zeke Motta Notre Dame. Seemed to have some momentum, primarily on the back of an appearance in Mike Mayock’s top 5 but ran in the low 4.8’s at the Combine and that was that. Primarily a Cover-2 safety in college, does not project well to man coverage with his poor Combine numbers. Angles and tackling were inconsistent particularly in the BCS Championship Game (also Le’Veon Bell jumped over him in the Michigan State game!). Good at what he did in college, but does not project as well to the pro game.
20. Earl Wolff North Carolina State. Very aggressive in the box safety who tested out very well at the Combine. Did not stand out in coverage lacks quickness and at times is too aggressive and gets out of position. Comes up and supports the run and is extremely active but will bite on play fakes and the like (let Erik Highsmith get behind him on a double reverse pass in the North Carolina game for example). Should be a special teams coverage stand out.
21. Josh Evans Florida. Like Lester, quite difficult to TV scout as he was often off the screen to the point I think I might be underselling him. Worked out well at the Combine and saw his stock rise. Generally played over the top can get downhill and support, but a few poor angles and missed tackles. I’d have liked to have seen more production, he never seemed to stand out on tape but that may have been the role.
Tier Eight
22. Malcolm Bronson McNeese State. Missed the majority of the season with a torn ACL, not able to workout at the McNeese State pro day outside of the bench press so recovery is not as fast as Tank Carradine’s for example. Looked a very good player on tape, I saw him against Middle Tennessee before the knee injury and I came away impressed. Plays the game under control, a very reliable tackler. Looks to have good range over the top in coverage. Doesn’t have a huge frame and without pro day numbers a little hard to rank a small schooler any higher if healthy I think he can help.
23. Cooper Taylor Richmond. Huge safety (6’4 228 lbs) who could possibly find a niche as a nickel LB. Transfer from Georgia Tech, where he had some medical problems (Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome). Missed week one with a fractured hand, but returned the next week playing with a cast. Generally played in zone coverage, just sits and reads the QB and did so effectively against VMI with 2 interceptions. Has good size and should help on special teams, but not sure his hips are loose enough for a man heavy scheme.
24. Cody Davis Texas Tech. College Cover-2 safety who had a very good pro day workout. Stood out in kick coverage at the Shrine Game and should make a roster on this ability alone. Very aggressive, but that can be used against him as he will bite on play action fake and let things get behind him. Limited experience in man coverage. Falls this far just because there are so many Cover-2 safeties in this class, but not that many teams running it in the NFL supply and demand working against him.
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