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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – Tight End, Fullback, Halfback Rankings
by Paul Emery
April 12th 2013
For new readers it’s worth quickly going through how I do things. If you are looking for a consensus ranking or something that copies from elsewhere, then this isn’t the place! I watched 278 games this year, I like to watch full games rather than the cut up prospect clips on YouTube (which I do use to break ties or where I can’t get full games), so I can get into the flow of the game and really understand when a big play is needed etc. I try and watch the top prospects at least 6 times, the middle rounders 3 to 5 and the later rounders at least a couple of times. I rate each game I see, work out an average and then build in the Combine/Pro Day numbers (see my two Combine articles).
These rankings are therefore my personal position boards and are in no way meant to predict who will be taken first in the Draft. Someone might be taken in the top 10, but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think he will make it in the NFL after all there are busts every year, so why shouldn’t rankings differ?! I’m sure NFL teams boards vary far more than the media believe.
I have no contacts in the NFL and have kept it that way on purpose so their opinions don’t change my mind. I always trust what I see on tape. However, this does mean I am not party to which players are character or medical red flags outside of what is in the media. I take into account medical to a degree, but will ignore character red flags outside of a mention in the text as I don’t know these prospects personally and it’s unfair to judge them (e.g. last year I had Janoris Jenkins as my number one CB). With that said, let’s get started with the offensive tackle class.
Many teams don’t employ a pure fullback, so I’ve merged together the position with the tight ends/halfbacks as that’s what many will need to become to secure a roster spot. This is a fairly solid class, but by no means spectacular.
Tier One
1. Travis Kelce Cincinnati. Kelce has had his problems off the field, but as I mentioned in my first article I’m not taking this into account so he finds himself at number one (and indeed it does seem he has matured and certainly was a leader for the Bearcats in 2012). Kelce is a two way tight end who is a dominant blocker while also being a very good receiver and it’s that combination which sees him ranked above others who are more receivers or a handful of old school blocking types. A former high school QB, he ran some wildcat early in his career and even threw for a TD pass against UConn. Has yet to run for scouts (sports hernia surgery) but made some big plays down the stretch including the game winner in the Bowl game. Able to separate with sharp routes and sells the double move very well. Powerful enough to throw defenders off who try and press him. Has experience as a pass protector, often from HB where he comes across the formation. Also leads numerous running plays from that HB spot and is very effective. Looks very much like a Rob Gronkowski type seems to me ready made for playoff football.
Tier Two
2.Tyler Eifert* Notre Dame. Eifert and Zach Ertz were neck and neck in my rankings, so I decided to let the Combine decide the winner and Eifert had a much better all around workout so gets the nod. He’s also a slightly better blocker than Ertz, so was ahead anyway. Production was down by 13 catches in 2012, he did miss a game with a concussion and didn’t look like the cobwebs had cleared in the Michigan game (1 catch), so that about explains it. Lined up a lot as a HB or in the slot. Did a nice job getting to the second level in the run game and springing runs. Did struggle more against Alabama’s power. A reliable hands catcher, he runs good routes and has a large catch radius. The modern day TE, but I’m not sure I’d spend a first round pick on him just didn’t quite give me enough for that…
3. Zach Ertz* Stanford. Often used in the slot by Stanford, Ertz is also not a great blocker and indeed at times wasn’t on the field, although part of that was just the number of tight ends Stanford have. Does a really nice job of using his body to box defenders out. Was often used out wide by Stanford and matched up against a CB it was easy pickings for him. Interestingly in my notes I thought he looked more athletic that Eifert, but his Combine workout was a good distance short of the Notre Dame man so he’s a better player than athlete. Likely a second round pick, the blocking needs to improve but some teams won’t mind and will start him from day one in the slot.
Tier Three
4. Kyle Juszczyk Havard. Juszczyk had really good numbers at his pro day, but at 6’1 lacks the length to be a TE. However, his skill set means he can be a good option at HB and also as a FB in short yardage/goal line situations. He has experience in the slot, as as inline tight end, halfback and fullback in college. He’s a really good receiver and should offer potential if matched up against a LB. He lit up Princeton for 15 catches, 192 yards and 3 TD’s! As a blocker he stood out at the Senior Bowl and quite why he was not invited to the Combine I don’t know. Ivy leaguers are rare, but there could be two or three drafted this year and I think Juszczyk is the best.
5. Gavin Escobar* San Diego State. Escobar is more a position wall off blocker than an old school inline tight end and that does limit him to a degree. However, many teams don’t really care about this, so he should be able to contribute right away from the slot. He’s a good but not great athlete, which again prevents me from pushing him too high up the board. However, he has very soft hands and shows the ability to separate. Admittedly haven’t seen as much of him as I would like (not even much on YouTube), so I might be selling him short…
Tier Four
6. Jordan Reed* Florida. Outside of his fumble against Georgia, I really like Reed’s tape but he’s undersized (6’2 236) and didn’t run quite as fast as I would like (low 4.7’s slightly above average in the TE group, but he’s 20 or 30 lbs lighter than most others). I would expect him to fall to day three unless he ran faster at his personal pro day (of which I can’t find any results I’m afraid). As a blocker he’s a non factor and indeed some WR’s are better at it. But as a slot WR and possibly move HB he looks very good. He has extremely soft hands and ensures he catches pretty much everything away from his body. Does a nice job with his routes and consistently gets separation despite not being an elite athlete. His lack of speed showed up at times on tape (against Zavier Gooden in the Missouri game for example) but on the whole he’s very productive as a receiver and should be able to find a niche role at the next level.
7. Vance McDonald Rice. A favourite of Senior Bowl director Phil Savage, McDonald rose up boards after a good Senior Bowl week. His hands aren’t the most natural and there are some double catches and drops, so I’m not quite as high on him as Mr Savage. He looks very smooth as an athlete, but lacks top explosion. Like many modern day TE’s, isn’t the best blocker bends at the waist too much and gets himself off balance. Used as a HB or in the slot even rushed the ball twice on fly sweeps against Louisiana Tech. He’s good, but I think might be overdrafted if he goes any earlier than round four.
8. Chris Gragg Arkansas. Gragg missed a portion of the season with injury and his QB Tyler Wilson really missed him. He make a comeback against Ole Miss, but re-injured the leg and missed the last four games. Still managed 22 catches in the five games he played in. Doesn’t have the most natural hands, seems to fight the ball at times. Not the best blocker, I’m only at 8 in the rankings and I seem to be typing that a lot! Must be cleared medically has struggled throughout his career with injuries.
9. Joseph Fauria UCLA. For some reason Fauria seems to be generating very little buzz and I’m not entirely sure why. A Notre Dame transfer he didn’t put up huge numbers for UCLA, but it’s not been the best passing offense out there. Like Jordan Reed, he’s not a good blocker at all he’s tall and doesn’t sink his hips enough but he’s a real mismatch down the seam and in the red zone. 12 of his 46 catches in 2012 were TD’s. Not an elite athlete, but is able to build up speed as he goes and can certainly stretch the field. Was bothered by a bad back at times needs to be checked, particularly for such a tall man.
Tier Five
10. Michael Williams Alabama. I’ve heard a number of tight ends named as the best blocker in this class, but if any are not saying Michael Williams then I strongly feel they are wrong. Williams is a big reason for the success of the Alabama running game, particularly on off tackle runs. He consistently was able to set the edge and indeed with a relatively poor Combine workout, he might be asked to add weight and play offensive tackle. However, despite not being the fastest he does have soft hands, so I think on the right team he can be a valuable weapon as a blocker and then a short range outlet receiver. He’s not Jimmy Graham, but he’s the type who you need on your team to win.
11. Dion Sims* Michigan State. I didn’t think Sims would test out very well at the Combine and although he didn’t run a blazing 40 (mid 4.7’s). However, the shuttle and cone drills showed that he struggles for quickness/change of direction and that’s what I saw on tape a struggle to separate. Has good hands catches the ball away from his frame and was a nice reliable short-medium target for his young QB’s. Has good size, but doesn’t impress as a blocker. Doesn’t sink his hips at all bends at the waist and is off balance. Better when asked to play square and set an edge. Linear athlete with good hands, but must improve as a blocker.
Tier Six
12. Zach Sudfeld Nevada. Tall (6’7) who missed two full seasons due to injury and was playing hurt in 2012 so needs to be carefully checked medically. He has very soft hands and can make the spectacular catch. Ran in the low 4.7’s at his Pro Day, so is a good athlete for a 253 lb man. Used as a HB when blocking, did a nice job getting to the second level and engaging. Has talent, but the medical will be everything for him.
13. Mychal Rivera Tennessee. With a standout cast of WR’s (Patterson and Hunter will be high picks and Zach Rogers might well be drafted) Rivera was a little lost, but showed flashes of talent as a receiving tight end. Had 36 catches in 2012, of which 10 game against Missouri. At 242 lbs, didn’t run as well at the Combine as I thought he would (low 4.8’s), but he did run one of the faster shuttle times. A little like Jordan Reed body wise, a pro HB only. Needs to improve as a blocker.
14. Philip Lutzenkirchen Auburn. Missed most of the season with a hip injury. Did work out at the Combine but ran poorly (mid 4.9’s), but showed better with a fast shuttle time. Will leak out into the flat on naked bootlegs, so was often schemed open. Has reliable hands, can make his QB look good. Not the biggest, so will get overpowered some as a blocker like Rivera, is more of a HB type and will need to find his niche, but has talent to make a roster.
Tier Seven
15. Levine Toilolo* – Stanford. More of a blocker than Zach Ertz limited production as a receiver and lacks top end speed (mid 4.8’s 40). He does have a smoothness to him and can help out as a second TE, primarily a blocker but a short-medium range target. Needs to be more consistent sinking at the hips as a blocker, will bend at the waist too much and then struggles more.
16. Jack Doyle Western Kentucky. Has decent size (6’5 254 lbs) looks a little thin, so has the frame to add more weight. Showed he can get square and set the edge in the run game. Leads runs from the HB slot and can get to the second level effectively. Moved around a lot pre-snap often as a FB, but then motioned out late. Doesn’t look like the best athlete (no pro day numbers yet unfortunately). In my notes I likened him to David Thomas (just released by the Saints) ideal number 2 guy, but has more growth potential than some, so could become more.
17. Ryan Otten San Jose State. Tall but very thin TE (6’5, 230 lbs) who must add bulk to help as a blocker. Right now is a HB/slot guy with a large catching radius. Ran in the high 4.6’s at his Pro Day (injured for the Combine), which is a bit faster than I thought from tape. However his shuttle and cone times were slower than anyone in the TE/HB/FB group at the Combine, which explains the lack of separation at times. Not a great blocker needs to get bigger and stronger, plus will often duck his head into contact. Didn’t stand out on tape will body catch a bit too much for liking and one ball went right threw him as a result in the Louisiana Tech game. Limited at the moment, might need a year on a practice squad to bulk up.
Tier Eight
18. Josh Hill Idaho State. Small schooler had a fine pro day workout highlighted by a 40 in the mid 4.6’s (at 246 lbs). Indeed his all around workout would have placed him number one if he had been at the Combine. Played in a spread offense and was employed mainly from the slot. Made every effort to catch balls with hands away from his frame. Not completely natural hands, had a few drops. He was only used as an inline TE in goal line/short yardage situations, so inexperienced as a blocker. Likely to be drafted late on day three rather than risk such a good athlete falling into the ranks of the undrafted where you can’t be sure to secure players.
19. Luke Willson Rice. Rice hasn’t produced a great deal of talent in recent years, but TE/HB James Casey was an Owl and now there are two TE’s this year. Willson had a really good pro day workout and it could well see him drafted. He also showed up well in the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl, where he had a nice TD and caught the ball smoothly. Not used by Rice much as a receiver, but certainly has the tools to help as a receiver. Gets nice and square and can set an edge as a blocker. Looks like a real sleeper and could surprise.
20. T.J. Knowles Sacramento State. The second Big Sky TE in the top 20 and there’s another below. Started his career at West Texas A&M;, then Junior College, then South Florida and finished at Sacramento State so certainly a well travelled path to the NFL. Tall TE (6’7) with a smoothness to him. Hurt a hamstring at his pro day, so there’s no 40 time for him. Better as a blocker than I was expecting thought he would just be a slot guy does need some technique work, but he understands he needs to sink at the hips and makes every effort to do so. A nice red zone target and a nice small school sleeper.
Tier Nine (in brief)
21. Brandon Ford Clemson. Had to take over from Dwayne Allen and although there were flashes, never quite reached those heights. HB type who lacks top length, but is a decent athlete and might be able to find himself a niche role.
22. Ryan Griffin Connecticut. Looks like a one paced athlete, lacks that extra burst but showed the ability to box people out nicely. Used in a variety of roles inline TE, HB, out wide and in the slot. Decent as a blocker, but could do with getting stronger and playing squarer.
23. D.C. Jefferson Rutgers. Ran in the high 4.9’s at the Combine, which might see him go undrafted… Showed flashes throughout the year, but never seemed to dominate. A few too many drops were sprinkled in. Inconsistent as a receiver and as a blocker.
24. Jake Stoneburner Ohio State. Got himself in the new coaching staffs dog house and had a 2012 to forget. Put himself back on the radar with a very good all around Combine workout. Was never a featured receiver in his time at Ohio State, his best year was 2010 with 21 catches. Has enough athletic ability to give him a look in camp he could turn out to be better as a pro than in college.
25. Greg Hardy Montana. A good blocker, but will need to add some bulk to become this at the next level. Plays square and can set an edge. Production increased as a receiver throughout his career culminating with a 29 catch 2012.
26. Lucas Reed New Mexico. Saw his production as a receiver take a nose dive in Bob Davie’s run heavy offense caught only 5 passes all year. Showed good aggression as a blocker has a relatively thin frame, so can add more weight (6’6 250). Scouts will need to dust off 2010/11 tape to see him as a receiver.
27. Colin Anderson Furman. Not the biggest frame and struggled as a results as a blocker more of a HB type. Catches the ball smoothly and no wasted motion after the catch. Only ran in the low 4.8’s at his pro day at 234 lbs, so a little limited athletically, but has solid tape.
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