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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – Wide Receiver Rankings
by Paul Emery
April 12th 2013
For new readers it’s worth quickly going through how I do things. If you are looking for a consensus ranking or something that copies from elsewhere, then this isn’t the place! I watched 278 games this year, I like to watch full games rather than the cut up prospect clips on YouTube (which I do use to break ties or where I can’t get full games), so I can get into the flow of the game and really understand when a big play is needed etc. I try and watch the top prospects at least 6 times, the middle rounders 3 to 5 and the later rounders at least a couple of times. I rate each game I see, work out an average and then build in the Combine/Pro Day numbers (see my two Combine articles).
These rankings are therefore my personal position boards and are in no way meant to predict who will be taken first in the Draft. Someone might be taken in the top 10, but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think he will make it in the NFL after all there are busts every year, so why shouldn’t rankings differ?! I’m sure NFL teams boards vary far more than the media believe.
I have no contacts in the NFL and have kept it that way on purpose so their opinions don’t change my mind. I always trust what I see on tape. However, this does mean I am not party to which players are character or medical red flags outside of what is in the media. I take into account medical to a degree, but will ignore character red flags outside of a mention in the text as I don’t know these prospects personally and it’s unfair to judge them (e.g. last year I had Janoris Jenkins as my number one CB). With that said, let’s get started with the offensive tackle class.
This class may lack a top 5 star in the making, but there are enough prospects who can be number one receivers. The real beauty of this class is the depth, there will be guys taken on day three who become really good NFL WR’s so if your team has a need at the position, don’t panic if it’s not addressed in the first three rounds.
Tier One
1. Keenan Allen* California. I think it’s a bit out of sight, out of mind with Allen he’s been troubled by a knee injury and missed the end of the season due to it. Unfortunately he re-injured the knee in training and missed the Combine and the Cal pro day. He plans to hold a private workout just before I’m writing this article. But all I need is his tape to rank him here. He might not be a 4.4 speed guy, but then A.J. Green didn’t exactly tear up the Combine turf and things haven’t turned out bad. He has a thicker build than Green, but the same big catching radius with soft, natural hands. His route running is excellent and he does a nice job using his 6’2 206 lb frame to box defenders out. He may lack elite top end speed to prevent him from being a top 10 pick, but he’s still much better than one would believe from the lack of hype he’s receiving.
2. Quinton Patton Louisiana Tech. The General. At the start of the 2011 season the first game I watched was FIU for T.Y. Hilton and the plan this year was to watch Patton in the Texas A&M; game as much like Hilton I knew he could play. Unfortunately that game was cancelled due to a hurricane, but when they did play later in the year he had 21 catches for 233 yards and 4 TD’s. He ran his 40 at the Combine in the low 4.5’s, so he’s not a burner but he is very quick and consistently is able to get separation and make people miss after the catch. He is a hands catcher, perhaps a few too many drops for my liking though. He has excellent body control, he should be able to adjust to having to get two feet in bounds on the sideline easily. Still was able to get deep, runs the double move very well and sets his man up superbly. Needless to say with this ranking I really like this young man.
3. Tavon Austin West Virginia. A different kind of receiver to the likes of Allen. He’s going to be a slot WR but has experience as a RB and can help in the return game so a modern day chess piece. At 5’8 174 lbs he’s not a classic outside receiver, but I would still take him in the first round. He’s a dynamic playmaker much like T.Y. Hilton last year but minus the durability concerns of the former FIU man. Austin can make his cuts at full speed often fast guys can’t change directions and running in the mid 4.3’s at the Combine he had one of the fastest shuttle times as well. He’s a fun guy to watch and can be moved around to find the best matchup. Ideal for a team late in the first round who wants to push themselves over the top, but I have a feeling he might be gone a little before that…
Tier Two
4. Robert Woods* USC. Back in 2006 Greg Jennings was my #1 WR out of Western Michigan and I see a lot of Jennings in Woods game. His production was down in 2012 (from 111 to 76 catches) that and too many drops has just prevented me from having him in tier one. Woods is a skilled route runner and that’s where I see the similarities with Jennings. He knows how to separate which is crucial at the next level. He has had some durability issues, particularly problems with an ankle that will need to be cleared. There were more drops in 2011 than this year and perhaps the ankle was bothering him, but I’d like to see him clean that up a bit. Certainly late in the first round I think he could draw consideration for a team like Houston in need of a number two WR.
5. DeAndre Hopkins* Clemson. Somewhat overshadowed by Sammy Watkins, but with Watkins in and out of the lineup this year it gave him a chance to step up and he did so with 82 catches for 1,405 yards. He finished things off superbly torching LSU for 191 yards on 13 catches and 2 TD’s in the Bowl game. He ran one of the slower 40 times at the Combine (high 4.5’s) but consistently showed the ability to separate on tape. This is a similar time to a Brandon Marshall or Marques Colston, so in itself isn’t a problem but may see him still around later than his production and talent deserves. He has soft hands, is a natural hands catcher and is strong to box defenders out. He’s a nice foil to a deep threat and should be a day one starter.
Tier Three
6. Stedman Bailey West Virginia. Not that big (5’10 193 lbs), not that fast (low 4.5’s) but just gets open and makes plays. Runs the comeback route as well as any WR in this class presents a nice target for his QB and doesn’t let the CB break on the ball. I loved his mental toughness in the snow at his Bowl game 7 catches for 126 yards and 2 TD’s. That also showed his body control on a sloppy field. Not as dynamic as Austin, but reliable and should be productive from the slot and perhaps outside.
7. Da’Rick Rogers* Tennessee Tech. Rogers was kicked off the Tennessee team due to multiple failed drug tests and elected to drop down a level to play for FCS Tennessee Tech. Quite simply he was a man against boys he was just too big, strong and fast for CB’s and even a few days after signing still found a way to make big plays in week one. Can get separation runs the square in very sharply and also sells the double move nicely to get deep. Had 67 catches for 1,040 yards in the SEC in 2011. Clearly needs to checked off the field, has significant upside if he stays clean.
8. Cordarrelle Patterson* Tennessee. Many have this young man as the number one WR and while I see his potential he’s not there yet and thus carries a significant amount of risk. I wouldn’t be willing to put my neck on the block for him in the mid first round, especially with such a deep WR class. At 6’1 216 lbs he ran in the low 4.4’s at the Combine – but as Darius Heyward-Bey has shown it’s not all about being fast. Separation is the key to WR and that’s where Patterson struggles. He struggled to such a degree when SEC play kicked in the Vols had to get him the ball on fly sweeps as much as receiving (Georgia and Mississippi State 2 catches, 3 rushes in both; Alabama 1 catch, 2 rushes; South Carolina 3 catches, 3 rushes and Missouri 3 catches, 5 rushes). There’s no question he’s dynamic with the ball in his hands (also a top kick returner), but getting him the ball wasn’t always easy as he struggled to separate (it’s not like he had a poor QB Tyler Bray can sling the rock). Too often I saw a CB in his back pocket and that was confirmed with slow shuttle and cone times at the Combine (he ran the shuttle in the same time he ran the 40, which is not good Patton ran the shuttle 0.41 seconds faster than him). Likely to go high because of the height/weight/speed, but it wouldn’t shock me if he was a bust.
Tier Four
9. Cobi Hamilton Arkansas. After being behind 2012 Draft picks Joe Adams, Jarius Wright and Greg Childs, this past season was Hamilton’s chance to step up. Indeed he went from being the fourth WR to being the only target for Tyler Wilson (TE Chris Gragg was injured much of the year). Despite receiving a lot of attention from defenses he still managed to catch 90 balls for 1,335 yards. Let’s say that Rutgers Logan Ryan is a day two pick (although he won’t be that high in my rankings!) Hamilton torched him for 10 catches, 303 yards and 3 TD’s and I mean torched. Oddly he ran in the mind 4.5’s at the Combine much slower than he played. He ran a lot of crossing routes in the Petrino offensive system and looked very dangerous, so the 40 time shocked me. The only thing that kept me from pushing him higher is that he’s more of a body catcher and did have a fair few drops. I usually don’t like WR’s with questionable hands, so he must have redeeming qualities for him to be this high!
10. Markus Wheaton Oregon State. Wheaton is fast, he beat Oregon’s DeAnthony Thomas while running track for OSU. He ran in the mid 4.4’s at the Combine, perhaps not quite as fast as his reputation suggested. He also has excellent quickness which is crucial to separate. Had 91 catches and with better QB play would have been over the 100 mark. Dealt with UCLA’s two big man CB’s very nicely. Extremely dangerous after the catch. Does lack ideal size (5’11 189 lbs), but he can play.
11. Aaron Dobson Marshall. Dobson has pretty much prototypical WR size (6’2 210 lbs) and speed (low 4.4’s). I admit to not having seen enough of him just some cut up games on YouTube and then Senior Bowl week so I am not super confident with this ranking. His production has not been great, even in a non-AQ conference (57 catches in 2012) but the Marshall QB play has been shaky. He certainly has made some spectacular catches, showing soft hands and a large catching radius. I didn’t think he lit up the Senior Bowl, so he falls here but I would have preferred to have seen more of him.
12. Terrance Williams Baylor. In some ways Williams is similar to Dobson in that he didn’t light up Senior Bowl week, which prevented him from being higher. He ran slower at the Combine than Dobson and indeed like Cobi Hamilton his low 4.5 time shocked me. He was a big play guy for Baylor with an average of 18.9 yards per catch in 2012. Specialises in the double move he’s able to sell it and get behind defenses consistently. Looks comfortable catching the over the shoulder pass. Better tape than Combine numbers, but still good enough to get a good ranking in a nice class.
13. Marquess Wilson* – Washington State. At this time last year Wilson was looking like a first round pick, but he wasn’t thrown to quite as much in Mike Leach’s offense. He then got into Leach’s well used dog house and subsequently left the team. He missed the last 3 games and finished with 52 catches, so likely would still have been down on his 82 catch 2011 season anyway. Teams will need to put some work into the young man off the field, but it does seem Leach is a divisive figure so one can draw ones own conclusions there… His body language was not great though and that should be corrected. More of a concern for me is Wilson’s inability at times to separate he needs to clean up his routes as they are often rounded and sloppy. If you think he’s going to work, then he’s a nice day three pick if not then just take someone else in this deep class.
Tier Five
14. Chris Harper Kansas State. At 229 lbs Harper is almost built more like a RB or HB than a WR. He ran his 40 in the mid 4.5’s at the Combine, which is OK at that weight. In a run heavy system with below average QB play he still managed 58 catches, which is impressive. He’s a natural hands catcher with the ability to box out defenders with his size. He’s also not beyond a subtle push off or two, showing veteran savvy in his route running. Likely a day three talent, doesn’t fit the ideal WR height and weight, but can play.
15. Aaron Mellette Elon. Elon started the year at North Carolina and only making 2 catches for 9 yards, Mellette’s confidence seemed to take a knock. It took him 3 or 4 weeks to get back to his 2011 form but he did do so and was against dominant. In 2011 I watched the Elon/Appalachian State game for Brian Quick (early round 2 Rams) and Mellette was better. I also watched him against Casey Hayward (round 2 Packers) and he gave someone who had a really good rookie season all that he could handle and indeed gave him more problems than Alshon Jeffery did later in the year. Mellette had the chance to stand out at the Senior Bowl, but I didn’t think he had a great week. The talent is there he’s a big/strong receiver who catches everything thrown at him is dangerous after the catch but the early dip in form and lack of a top Senior Bowl week will likely push him to day three. But perhaps with a touch more confidence, he might well be special.
16. Marquise Goodwin Texas. Texas had zero idea how to use this weapon and in terms of production (26 catches in 2012) he would be a late rounder. But in the odd games that Texas fed him the ball (the Bowl game and the Ole Miss game) he showed what a dynamic playmaker he can be. He’s a world class long jumper (finished 10th in the Summer Olympics) with legitimate 4.2 speed. He’s a little raw (missed spring ball to focus on the long jump) but he can help in the return game and feature on fly sweeps. He needs a much more open mind for an offensive co-ordinator than he enjoyed at Texas, but a team missing out on Tavon Austin might look to him late on day two or early day three.
Tier Six (the athletic upside tier!)
17. Ryan Swope Texas A&M.; Must be cleared medically to stay this high, has a history of concussions which could adversely affect his stock (on his 200th career catch he was hit in the helmet and missed the remainder of the game with a concussion). Was pegged as a possession receiver but ran in the mid 4.3’s at the Combine. Production wise, early in the year he missed Ryan Tannehill, but after the LSU game (20 October) managed 52 of his 72 catches on the year. Despite his 4.3 speed his average per catch yardage was not great only 12.7 and that’s the story throughout his career, so there is a disconnect there and I’m always wary of disconnects. Generally has solid hands and does a nice job of finding the soft spot in zone coverage. Not overly high on him, had him as a just another possession receiver but have pushed him up some because of the athletic upside.
18. Kenny Stills* – Oklahoma. Stills is very much like Swope with a relatively poor average yard per catch number (11.7 in 2012) but tested out very well at the Combine (high 4.3’s) perhaps it’s the dink and dunk offenses but I’d still expect more after the catch. On tape he seemed to lack the ability to separate deep, so once again I use the word disconnect. His routes weren’t always great needs to run the comeback route better, just turns and sits allowing the CB to make a play on the ball far easier. Really struggled to get off press coverage against the magnificent Kenny Vaccaro in the Texas games (only 3 catches). Will have the odd drop, but hands were generally good. Main question is inability to separate, part of which is caused by poor route running but has athletic upside.
19. Josh Boyce* – TCU. Despite his starting QB being suspended for the year his production still went up to 66 catches, although his average yards per catch fell. Ran in the high 4.3’s at the Combine, so has athletic upside. Not the best at coming down with contested catches, but he shows enough quickness to get separation. May look better in the NFL with a decent QB and could be a sleeper.
20. Charles Johnson Grand Valley State. Regular readers (thank you!) will know I love small school talent. My hobby is scouting, but my hobby within the hobby is small school scouting and this guy is my number one small school sleeper. Johnson is an impressive looking WR at 6’2 215 lbs but he can move, running in the high 4.3’s at his pro day he also showed excellent explosion with top vertical and broad jump numbers. Most exciting is that he’s a natural hands catcher and his speed does show on tape. Level of competition is a question mark, he wasn’t at any of the All-Star games and that prevents me from pushing him higher, but I’d be looking to take him fairly soon on day three.
Tier Seven
21. Ace Sanders* – South Carolina. While those in the above tier had very good workout numbers, Sanders did not. At 5’7 173 lbs he ran in the high 4.5’s and also ran his shuttle time much slower than I thought. His overall workout on my scale is in the region where I worry if he’s athletic enough to play at the next level. But the tape doesn’t match he showed speed and quickness after the catch and in the return game. LSU’s Brad Wing was so worried about him in the return game he shanked two punts badly out of bounds. Numbers don’t match the tape and the wrong way round for his stock unfortunately.
22. Conner Vernon Duke. There was talk before the Combine that Vernon was going to run in the 4.3’s, but that proved to be well off the mark as he ran in the high 4.6’s a mark the fastest TE’s were running. Highly productive throughout his career, but he did have the benefit of a good QB in a good system. Looks to be the classic possession receiver, but there’s a place for him in the league crafty with his route running, he should really take pro coaching well and find a niche and stay around for many years.
23. Corey Fuller Virginia Tech. Ran track at Kansas State before transferring to be with his brother (Junior CB Kyle). Caught 2 catches in 2011, so basically only one year of production 43 catches this past season. He should improve with coaching and has athletic upside (6’2 204 lbs low 4.4’s 40 yard dash). Looked most comfortable on crossing routes, so might suit a team like the Chiefs. Raw, but flashed and is certainly worth a day three look.
Tier Eight
24. Tavarres King Georgia. In most of the Georgia games I watched King made a play. Particularly dangerous on the double move deep (last year he took Panthers 2012 Draft pick Josh Norman to school twice in the Coastal Carolina game) his average per catch in 2012 was a superb 22.6 yards (on 42 catches). Was expected to replace A.J. Green, but seemed weighed down by that burden. I don’t think he’s a number one guy, but he can stretch the field vertically and is an interesting day three option.
25. Javone Lawson Louisiana-Lafayette. Lawson missed three games with injury, so his production was down slightly this year (40 catches). I’ve just got a gut feeling about this guy catches everything thrown at him and despite lacking long speed has enough quickness to separate. Lacks the production and athletic numbers of many below him, so going out on a limb with this one…
26. Quentin Sims Tennessee-Martin. Will benefit from scouts flocking to see DT Montori Hughes, certainly was worth not sleeping through UTM offensive series! Receiver with good size (6’3 208 lbs) and good speed (no pro day numbers, but got behind people consistently). Showed his speed on a 32 yard catch against Tennessee State looked like the pass was thrown too far ahead of him, but he showed a nice burst and then made a nice diving catch. Also took a short curl route in that game and turned it into a 50 yard TD. Interesting small schooler.
Tier Nine
27. Marcus Davis Virginia Tech. Bigger receiver who is a taller version of Chris Harper. Has talent, but will get lazy and body catch too much resulting in balls going right through him. Was a trendy pre-season sleeper pick, but didn’t take off in 2012. Has talent and has shown flashes, but needs consistency.
28. Jason Thompson New Haven. Sometimes watching a small schooler is a waste of 3 hours, but others you unearth a sleeper and Thompson is just that. Tall, wiry thin prospect with decent speed (6’3 190, 4.5 speed). Has a little burst to pull away from defenders, plays faster than he timed. Natural hands catcher who stood out in key situations (e.g. game winning TD against Stonehill with 6 seconds remaining). I’d be willing to spend a late rounder on him to prevent him reaching the undrafted waters.
29. Erik Highsmith North Carolina. 54 catches in 2012 but always seemed to flash. Needs a few steps to build up to top speed, so separation on short routes is a question mark. Had the odd concentration drop, but did show soft hands. Decent number 3 or 4 guy who showed tantalising glimpses of talent.
30. Brandon Kaufman* – Eastern Washington. A rare junior entry for a small schooler. Tall receiver (6’5) who ran poorly at the Combine (high 4.6’s). Was too much for the competition at times in the Big Sky (yes, it’s FCS, but it’s still a good standard of football). Likely a possession and red zone niche player as a pro, but has talent.
31. Nicholas Edwards Eastern Washington. Struggled with injury in 2012 and his production wasn’t great, but has talent. Worked out very well at his pro day (a 7 on my overall ranking, one of the higher when compared to those at the Combine). Extremely quick receiver who consistently gets separation. Might not be drafted because of lack of production this past season, but could be a sleeper.
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