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You Can’t Mock Me
by Chris Brophy
6/4/2010
 When putting together a mock draft many things go into the equation in order to find the answer you think might be right for each team in the draft needs, player evaluation, trends, history, rumours. Even then though, there are still players who are an enigma for their own set of reasons great/poor performances at pro days or the combine, off the field issues, injury history and other things that raise red flags. This year sees several players who should go in the first round but could go at either end of it and it is their fate that will make up many of the post draft stories. Here at the Diner, we shall attempt to pre-empt those stories and look at a few players who could go higher than expected or drop into free fall in the first round of the upcoming 2010 draft.
Jimmy Clausen (Quarterback, Notre Dame) There could be a serious case of dj vu come draft day as Jimmy Clausen is perhaps the biggest wildcard in this whole first round. Much like his predecessor at the position for the Fighting Irish Brady Quinn there are plenty of mocks knocking about (not least some of those here in the Diner) that have predicted him to be a top four pick but come actually draft day he could end up dropping like a stone. Our own Jody Jamison had him going at number one overall a while back and if you read the likes of Walter Football you’ll see plenty of love for him around the internet because of his proven ability in a pro style system and the fact that without him Notre Dame might have been lucky to win a game all season. They are the positives but his apparent cocky attitude, the Fighting Irish’s recent poor history of developing pro QB’s and a belief he does not have a high ceiling possibly count against him.
What may hurt him more is that with Sam Bradford seemingly locked into the number one spot there aren’t too many teams picking in the top half that are QB hungry. The Redskins at #4 are no longer an option now they have added Donovan McNabb. The Chiefs (#5) have Clausen’s college head coach as OC (Charlie Weis) but they also invested in Matt Cassel last year and the Browns at #7 have made changes at QB and won’t fancy another disappointment from the same school. The Raiders are still trying to make the JaMarcus Russell pick pay off. The Bills at #9 could be possible but after that it’s hard to see who will take a shot. My last Diner mock had him going to Denver, who then promptly traded for Brady Quinn ruining that prediction. The Seahawks have added Charlie Whitehurst, the 49ers signed David Carr whilst the Panthers have traded away their first round choice so unless someone then trades in Clausen might be looking at someone like the Cardinals at #26. If he can make a good impression at his personal pro day on April 9th and his visits to individual teams go well he may well be able to save his draft stock but he is possibly the hardest player to predict in this draft. He could go 4th, he could go 34th if no one is prepared to risk trading in for him outside the top ten.
Dez Bryant (Wide Receiver, Oklahoma State) Here is a player who had already caused himself damage before the football season was over by getting suspended for a NCAA bylaw violation. The issue of him having contact with Deion Sanders is not exactly off-putting (compared to say a brush with the law) but it cost him football time and likely hurt where his draft stock started from. Many got past that though and looked at him purely as a football player and as the mocks kept rolling in his name kept on getting higher. When you have the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock calling you the third best player in this draft you can understand the hype and the Browns at #7 had become a favourite landing place in many mocks but his recent pro day work out has really put the cat amongst the pigeons with poor 40 times and he didn’t finish all of his drills. There was a still sign of the ability that has him highly ranked though decisive in his routes and good hands as he plucked the ball from the air.
However, receivers can take their time to make an impact in the pros and if teams have doubts about Bryants patience, mindset and work ethic then he could be in trouble. There are plenty of potential landing spots for him in the top 20 Cleveland, Denver, Miami, Seattle but if he gets past Seattle at #14 it’s hard to see a team who would want a receiver that high until maybe the Cardinals again at #26 (considering they have traded away Anquan Boldin). Bryant has a couple of weeks in his private visits with teams to do a rebuilding job, to sell himself as a hard worker and a guy who can make an immediate impact. If he fails to do that he’ll cost himself a lot of money and could see himself closer to the top of round 2 than round 1.
Tim Tebow (Quarterback, Florida) Unlike the two previous players we have discussed Tebow is a guy who could go higher than expected and his stock is rising all the time. Ever since he came onto the scene as a star in college football I’ve heard the jokes about how he’d make a great fullback or H-Back and it’s no secret he needs a lot of work in the pros as he rarely took snaps from under centre and his mechanics need refining. However, his leadership abilities and his physical skill set make him attractive and there are very few doubts that he’ll give his everything to be successful. You also have to consider QB’s nearly always punch above their weight in terms of draft value. Many drafts have seen late risers and as Tebow goes around individual teams and continues to make positive strides draft day could see panic set in and a team looking at him in the 2nd round making sure they get him by jumping into the first and reaching.
The aforementioned Jimmy Clausen and Tebow’s fates could be intertwined. If Clausen goes in the top half Tebow is likely the 3rd QB off the board just before Texas’ Colt McCoy but it means teams will be tempted to move up for him. If Clausen falls teams looking at a QB could be tempted to trade in for the more pro ready Clausen than the project that is Tebow meaning he doesn’t have a team trade in for him. Regardless, I don’t think Tebow gets past the Bills 2nd round pick but it wouldn’t surprise me if the likes of the Bills traded into the bottom half of round 1 to get him. If that happens, it also means the likes of McCoy and Cincinnati’s Tony Pike could see themselves moving up teams boards so that those requiring a young QB to develop aren’t left high and dry by the start of round 3. I fully expect Tim Tebow to be one of the biggest talking points of the opening two rounds of the draft and I wouldn’t be shocked if he is off the board before we get to pick 25.
Jason Pierre-Paul (Defensive End, South Florida) The problem here is that there isn’t enough evidence to make a decision and with GM’s under more scrutiny than ever in these more media-accessible times, risks aren’t as forthcoming (except maybe on QB’s). Pierre-Paul has one season with a great body of work after transferring to South Florida from a junior college program and as a physical specimen he looks the part but the lack of anything beyond that year when he was an unknown quantity and the fact that some of his combine drills showed he might struggle to make the switch to outside linebacker (poor shuttle time) in the ever more popular 3-4 scheme across the NFL could really hurt him. A defensive lineman has to be able to contribute in the rotation to be worth activating on game day and if Pierre-Paul ends up becoming a project rather than a player teams will regret investing him. That thought will be in their mind so he could well slip through the first round picks. However, to flip the coin, there are still a few mavericks around and two of them reside in the AFC West Al Davis and young Broncos coach Josh McDaniels a guy who isn’t afraid to make the controversial choice (or ask his front office to). As negative as the first part of this write up is don’t rule out JPP going top 10-15 and pushing all the other defensive lineman down the pecking order. He’s the type of player who is a reach in the top half of round one, value in the bottom half of round 1 and a bargain in round 2 yet no one knows what he’ll do as a professional.
Bruce Campbell (Offensive Tackle, Maryland) Every NFL Combine produces a workout warrior with great measurable assets and this year it was Bruce Campbell who blew away the watching public and NFL scouts. He looks chiselled at 6-6 and 314lbs, he had the long arms (36 inches) the scouts want from their NFL tackles and with a 4.85 40 time and bench pressing 225lbs an impressive 34 times Campbell did everything in his power to make NFL teams move him up their draft boards.
Add in Campbell plays a position which just after quarterback, will see teams reach for talent and he could well have moved himself from borderline first rounder to possible top ten pick. Many pundits took the sum of brilliant measurable assets + speed and power = drafted by Al Davis. Instantly, Campbell moved into the #8 slot to the Raiders in many post-combine mocks and we are the Diner were no different. However, the instant reaction to the combine has worn off now and Campbell is still trying to find his way into the pecking order of tackles which after Russell Okung is still muddled. However, there is no doubt his superb combine performance will have left its mark on some NFL front office personal people’s minds and he could yet jump past the likes of Anthony Davis, Trent Williams and Bruan Bulaga to be the second or third offensive tackle off the board. Despite all he has done to improve his stock there is every chance the combine performance will be looked at dubiously and if that is the case he probably stays at the bottom of round one but don’t be surprised if an offensive tackle hungry team takes this guy before half way through the first round.
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