NCAA Scouting Paul Hopkins’ 2011 1st Round Mock Draft V2.0 by Paul Hopkins April 26th 2011
1 Carolina Panthers Cameron Newton (QB, Auburn) There hasnt been anything to suggest that Carolina are becoming less keen on Newton. With only four days until the draft, Ron Rivera and co likely know who they want. I still believe its the Auburn QB. Other possible selections: They could pick anyone and it would assist them despite not being a team with gaping holes. Green would improve the offence whereas Dareus, Miller or Peterson would bolster the defense. Possible trade? Unless a team is rabidly desperate to secure one of the two passers, it won’t happen. Previous selection (14 April): Cameron Newton (QB, Auburn)
2 Denver Broncos Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama) The talk has moved from the Broncos taking a QB and more towards a trade taking place. That would undoubtedly work for a team like Denver with massive holes on defense. But if they stick then Dareus must be the only pick. Other possible selections: Von Miller remains a possibility if they decide that the outside pass rush opposite Elvis Dumervil is their primary requirement. Previous selection (14 April): Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama)
3 Buffalo Bills Von Miller (OLB, Texas A+M) I still hold firm that a QB has to be the pick. Something tells me the Bills would prefer Newton to Gabbet but as I dont see the Panthers letting him past them, Im feeling that they do their usual and miss the obvious. Von Miller is a stud pass rusher so fits a need but I maintain they need a face of the franchise. Other possible selections: Its either whichever QB remains or Miller. Possible trade? Only if Ralph Wilson doesn’t want to pay top three money and someone makes them an offer they can’t refuse to get Gabbert. Previous selection (14 April): Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri)
4 Cincinnati Bengals Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU) This would leave the Bengals with a major quandary if Gabbert is still there given the Carson Palmer impasse. Theyre still not run particularly well so I sense they gamble and let Gabbert pass them by. Jonathan Josephs contract is up and is likely to be a pricey contract when free agency eventually opens. So they take a replacement. Other possible selections: Gabbert is a possibility but it binds them into a big contract and a veteran QB with clearly minimal value if they take a QB. AJ Green is a possible as well but the Bengals have invested in young receivers already who are becoming productive. Possible trade? Not unless someone is desperate to snare Green, Miller or Peterson. Previous selection (14 April): AJ Green (WR, Georgia)
5 Arizona Cardinals Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri) The Cardinals were the worst franchise at QB last season. If Blaine Gabbert navigates his way to #5 then they wont let him past. Previous selection (14 April): Von Miller (OLB, Texas A+M)
6 Cleveland Browns AJ Green (WR, Georgia) Do the Browns fill what remains a need and has ever since the Braylon Edwards selection never really panned out the way it could? AJ Green is an elite prospect and taking him at #6 might just be too tempting. Other possible selections: They could easily still go pass rush and take Robert Quinn to bolster their options on the other side of the ball. Possible trade? Definite possibility. If a team like the Patriots want to use their two first round choices to get a Quinn or if someone else fancies Green, now might be a time for it to happen. Previous selection (14 April): Robert Quinn (DE/OLB, North Carolina)
7 San Francisco 49ers Robert Quinn (DE/OLB, North Carolina) With the elite secondary player taken off the board, the Niners could help their secondary just as much by grabbing a top drawer pass rusher in the form of Quinn. Possible trade? If Peterson is snapped up before them then it is probably too early for Amukamara and if they dont like Quinn a drop back is a possibility. Previous selection (14 April): Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU)
8 Tennessee Titans Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn) Sticking with Fairley to the Titans. It seems like a perfect fit. Other possible selections: The Titans likely don’t spend a lot of time considering other prospects as the elite players remaining don’t match their needs, and Fairley is such a perfect fit. Possible trade? Unless someone is particularly keen on Fairley or even a Tyron Smith or Amukamara, a trade appears unlikely. Previous selection (14 April): Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn)
9 Dallas Cowboys Tyron Smith (OT, USC) As a Cowboys fan Ive a huge fan of the versatility of Cameron Jordan, but I just dont see us taking anything other than Smith. Other possible selections: This selection will assuming all the top eight talent players have gone that will come down to Smith, Amukarama, JJ Watt and Cameron Jordan. Possible trade? Distinct possibility. With the clear top eight prospects all gone then wheeler dealer Jerry Jones will solicit offers to trade back, acquire picks and still pick up a tackle or defensive end. Previous selection (14 April): Tyron Smith (OT, USC)
10 Washington Redskins Julio Jones (WR, Alabama) Chatter, whether that be simple speculation or based on substance has the Rams seriously considering trading up to number nine to take Jones. This can only lead you to suspect that the Redskins are seriously considering him. If he gets to them, the Shanahans will bite. Possible trade? The Redskins of old traded away their picks like nobodies business. The new regime of Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan value them more so likely stick unless a good offer comes in. Previous selection (14 April): Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska)
11 Houston Texans Cameron Jordan (DE, California) Last time out I had Watt going here. But after re-thinking how Wade Phillips approached drafts in Dallas he liked versatility and athletes. Jordan comes from playing a 3-4 in college in more than one position. And he is a tremendous athlete. I believe he is now the more likely pick. Other possible selections: JJ Watt remains a strong contender as does Prince Amukamara now that he has made it out the top 10. They may have addressed cornerback in the first round last year but the secondary was so woeful they will consider it again. Possible trade? Unlikely. This team needs to tap some elite talent as they shift their defensive focus. Unless someone provides picks to allow them to add 3-4 personnel, they’ll stick and pick. Previous selection (14 April): JJ Watt (DE, Wisconsin)
12 Minnesota Vikings Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska) The Vikings arguably need a QB most of all, but there just isn’t value here. Some help in the secondary from the highly regarded Cornhusker is a safe and value pick. Other possible selections: There aren’t a whole lot of alternatives for the Vikings in areas of key need which means a trade is quite possible, perhaps even probable. Offensive tackle is a possibility, and unless they are infatuated with a QB like Ponder or Locker and want peace of mind they have their man regardless of where he is drafted, it’s a likely option. JJ Watt may also get some consideration. Possible trade? Too early for another QB surely. The Vikings could jump back once, maybe twice in pursuit of what they clearly need the most. Previous selection (14 April): Cameron Jordan (DE, California)
13 Detroit Lions JJ Watt (DE, Wisconsin) Kyle vanden Bosch isnt getting any older and as a team tipped to make a charge in 2011 pass rush remains a critical position. Watts physical style fits with the ethos Jim Schwartz has instilled in Detroit and would be a great fit. Other possible selections: They could easily go offensive tackle in the shape of Anthony Costanza right here. Matthew Stafford is proving to be fragile so the greater protection they can give him, the better. Possible trade? The Draft works well for the Lions in their positions of need. The most likely way they’re not picking at #13 is if they jump up to take someone they want badly. Previous selection (14 April): Anthony Costanza (OT, Boston College)
14 St Louis Rams Aldon Smith (DE/OLB, Missouri) The Rams needs dont easily fit the level of talent available at #14 in this draft. Smith has elite talent and seems to be rocketing up boards. If the draft plays out like this then he may be the man for St Louis. Other possible selections: The Rams could also do with some help on the defensive line particularly up the middle. Despite using high draft picks on the line before, this might be another choice for them. Furthermore, if Watt or Jordan are there, the Rams may let Jones pass them by. Possible trade? They could very well trade back to find value in positions of need at defensive tackle, free safety and 4-3 defensive end. Previous selection (14 April): Julio Jones (WR, Alabama)
15 Miami Dolphins Christian Ponder (QB, Florida State) I still think the Dolphins are going to take Ponder or at very least another QB. As I said last time, they dont have an awful lot of holes. Interior offensive line being the other obvious one. Mike Pouncey is the stand out here, but it seems too early to select him, leaving the Fins clear to take a chance on Ponder. Possible trade? If they think they can get Ponder (or another QB they like) or Pouncey; or even if they really like Mark Ingram, then a trade towards the end of the first round is a possibility. Previous selection (14 April): Christian Ponder (QB, Florida State)
16 Jacksonville Jaguars Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue) We saw last year with Aluala that Jacksonville will go for hard work and quiet yet effective talent. Kerrigan fits the bill this year. A four year starter, a team captain and a motor to go all day would bolster the pass rush that faltered as the Jags closed out their season disappointingly. Other possible selections: Brooks Reed, Arizona’s defensive end and Aldon Smith of Missouri are possible options, both of whom would fit the Jags nicely but it seems highly unlikely the Jags will get a chance at Smith. They may of course be happy to take a gamble on DaQuan Bowers. Possible trade? If they were targeting Christian Ponder as some mocks and draft insiders suggest, then seeing him go to Miami may compel them to decide that moving back is the best option. Previous selection (14 April): Aldon Smith (DE/OLB, Missouri)
17 New England Patriots Mike Pouncey (OG/C, Florida) The offensive line is not getting any younger, Belichick has used his knowledge of the Florida programme to great effect before so why not do it again and get the drafts best interior lineman? Other possible selections: Brooks Reed and Akeem Ayers are most definitely on Belichick’s radar and could upgrade their pass rush considerably. And you wouldnt put it past the master to take a chance on a DaQuan Bowers and have it work out perfectly for him, Possible trade? It’s Bill Belichick so trading is always a distinct possibility. But with the 14-2 record of 2010, the Pats need some impact players to kick on from this, so expect them to use both of their first round selections. Previous selection (14 April): Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin)
18 San Diego Chargers Da’Quan Bowers (OLB, Clemson) The Chargers may have had one of the premier defenses in football last year but if as seems to be likely Bowers tumbles, the Chargers may take a gamble on grabbing an elite talent and character, albeit with major concerns over his knee. Other possible selections: Brooks Reed is another possibility. But this team has only one (and very unproven) inside linebacker under contract. Possible trade? Smith is always open to trading back and forth on draft weekend so it remains a possibility as he looks for the certainty in his roster he always craves. Previous selection (14 April): Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue)
19 New York Giants Anthony Costanza (OT, Boston College) With the lack of value at other positions of need, the Giants do what they always do in cases like this and draft a solid, dependable player for one of their lines. And of course, theres the Tom Coughlin-Boston College link at play with this selection. Other possible selections: Outside linebacker needs upgrading. They may also look at the son of a former Giant, Mark Ingram to bolster their rushing attack. Possible trade? If the G-Men sense value can be had later back in the round then there is a possibility; particularly if one team sees Ponder go and decides to trigger a run on the second level QBs earlier than expected. Previous selection (14 April): Mike Pouncey (OG/C, Florida)
20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado) The Buccaneers had a clear need to upgrade their pass rush. However, with off-field incidents one of their secondary positions of need at cornerback may become an area they need to address. Of course, the irony of how Tampa Bay find themselves is that in looking at cornerback they are faced with another player coming out of college with off-field problems, just like Aqib Talib was when they took him a few years back. Smith is rising up boards at present and appears to be answering his critics. Its a risk but Tampa might just need to take it. Other possible selections: If the Buccaneers go against the character question marks and focus on the pass rush as previously expected then look for them to add Brooks Reed out of Arizona. A team captain in college and after a strong combine performance would be yet another stellar young talent for this improving team. Possible trade? Unlikely unless they really like one of the pass rushers likely to have gone before them. The Buccs have a strong drafting record in recent years which has earnt Mark Dominik a new contract. Previous selection (14 April): Da’Quan Bowers (OLB, Clemson)
21 Kansas City Chiefs Phil Taylor (NT, Baylor) The Chiefs just need a nose tackle. Their draft position and Taylors ranking fit together nicely. Other possible selections: The Chiefs could also do with upgrading their offensive tackle position so Derek Sherrod and Nate Solder are options. Possible trade? Always possible with Pioli. Previous selection (14 April): Phil Taylor (NT, Baylor)
22 Indianapolis Colts Derek Sherrod (OT, Mississippi) Offensive line is the greatest need. They’ve swung and missed on some picks previously but Sherrod is starting to move up draft boards. Charlie Johnson is bang average at best, Peyton is not getting any younger and at times last season was feeling the pass rush like never before. Other possible selections: I believe this pick comes down to who they like more between Sherrod and Gabe Carimi. Sherrod is the kind of athlete the Colts like. Possible trade? We’re now at the point of the Draft what with the lack of free agency, the quality of the QB class and the number of teams desperate for a QB that major trading could begin as teams scramble to get the likes of Dalton, Locker, Mallett and Kaepernick. Previous selection (14 April): Derek Sherrod (OT, Mississippi)
23 Philadelphia Eagles Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin) If the draft runs like this then the Eagles might end up with the steal of the first round. Carimi is a great fit for the Eagles who need to do a better job of protection. Hes mean, tough and outstanding at run blocking. With Shady McCoy and Michael Vick behind him, its a strong selection. Other possible selections: If he falls to them, then Jimmy Smith will definitely get a look. If the Colts don’t take Sherrod the Eagles might be tempted with him over Carimi. Michael Vick needs all the protection he can get. I don’t see Nate Solder and his mammoth frame being particularly appealing to the Eagles system. Possible trade? The Eagles could benefit from a QB-hungry side as we now enter the phase of the draft where the talent from the early 20s to the late 30’s are much of a muchness. But as we saw with Brandon Graham last year if the Eagles like someone enough, they’ll mobilise to move up the board. Previous selection (14 April): Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado)
24 New Orleans Saints Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama) The Saints have got by in the running game for a few years now. But it’s clear they need a compliment to Pierre Thomas. Even with question marks over his arthritic knee, taking the best rusher in the Draft represents good value at pick #24. Other possible selections: The Saints’ other need is on defensive line. Adrian Clayborn is a first round talent but has injury concerns which lead many to believe he can only play from one side of the line. Even so, his talent is obvious so this remains a shout for a team needing to upgrade its defensive line. Other possibilities include Justin Houston, Marvin Austin and Corey Liuget. Whilst adding Shaun Rodgers won’t stop them going here, it’s possible with temptation like Ingram; they may decide he’s enough to go with. Possible trade? If Dalton, Locker, Mallett and Kaepernick remain on the board and a desperate GM exists, there’s that possibility. Previous selection (14 April): Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama)
25 Seattle Seahawks Jake Locker (QB, Washington) After breaking them down, it now seems that QBs are being talked up again as we reach the final stretch of the pre-draft debate which makes a run on them towards the end of the first round all the more likely. They could go DT with Muhamad Wilkerson or Corey Liuget but with Red Bryant returning, and the possibility (perhaps likelihood that Matt Hasselbeck wont be) the Hawks may stick and take a local product. Carroll will have seen Locker up close and personal in the Pac10. His old coach at USC Steve Sarkisian has been Locker’s Head Coach and will advise Pete on his potential. It’s a risk but with Hasselbeck possibly out the door and only Charlie Whitehurst there, the Hawks need a QB. Other possible selections: When addressing their defensive line Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward and Brooks Reed are all decent shouts to plug the line. Their woeful pass defense could also be upgraded through Aaron Williams. Possible trade? Ditto as per New Orleans. Previous selection (14 April): Muhammad Wilkerson (DT, Temple)
26 Baltimore Ravens Cameron Heyward (DE/OLB, Ohio State) I’m not one to follow Brian Billick’s lead but he is utterly convinced that Heyward is the pick if he is still there at #26. And Heyward is a top drawer athlete who can make an immediate impact as a situational player, which is just how the Ravens like it. Other possible selections: It is only a year since the Ravens spent a high pick on Sergio Kindle who plays in a similar position. But with question marks over when and indeed, if he will ever return the Ravens this seems a sensible choice. They still need a burner to stretch the field offensively but at this point they should have the opportunity to fill that void in further rounds. Possible trade? Ozzie Newsome and his staff know how to operate the draft, so again the possibility is there. Previous selection (14 April): Cameron Heyward (DE/OLB, Ohio State)
27 Atlanta Falcons Brooks Reed (DE, Arizona) Despite having the best record in the NFC, the Falcons only registered 31 sacks, John Abraham is starting to age and there is little behind. Reed is on many people’s lips at the present time and could go higher, but reigning GM supremo Thomas Dimitroff would not let him pass any further if he is still here. Other possible selections: When looking at their pass rush Akeem Ayers will also be considered by Dimitroff. Possible trade? If those QBs are still there at this point, nervy GMs may be tempted to pounce. Previous selection (14 April): Brooks Reed (DE, Arizona)
28 New England Patriots Akeem Ayers (DE/OLB, UCLA) The Pats pass rush has needed upgrading for some time. After gambling that he would be able to improve the rush with his second first rounder, things (as they usually do) work to perfection for Belichick who gets a player with great versatility. It also stops him falling to arch-rival Rex Ryan. Other possible selections: Justin Houston would likely join Ayers atop the Patriots board at this point. Possible trade? A trade here is very likely just because of how the Patriots operate their drafting. Previous selection (14 April): Akeem Ayers (DE/OLB, UCLA)
29 Chicago Bears Aaron Williams (CB, Texas) The offensive line needs upgrading but so does the secondary. Aaron Williams offers flexibility with an ability to play corner and safety; flexibility to Bears will value in a division with big-time receiving threats. Other possible selections: Their offensive line still has massive problems so Nate Solder or ben Ilijalana are possibilities. Possible trade? A trade back with a QB hungry team is a distinct possibility. Previous selection (14 April): Nate Solder (OT, Colorado)
30 New York Jets Justin Houston (DE, Georgia) Rex Ryan can never have enough tools on defense with which to get after arch nemesis’ Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Other possible selections: Could they go running back with Illinois’ Mikel Leshoure? Possible trade? A trade back with a QB hungry team is a distinct possibility. Previous selection (14 April): Justin Houston (DE, Georgia)
31 Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Ilijalana (OT, Villanova) The Steelers much maligned offensive line could always do with some support to help protect Roethlisberger. I suspect that former hot prospect Nate Solder slides into the top of the second round like Roger Safford in 2010 as the Steelers take a somewhat surprising pick on Ilijalana. Other possible selections: The Steelers were noticeably out in force for the Longhorns’ pro day including Mike Tomlin which gives an indication how much they like Aaron Williams. If he makes it this far he may be the choice. Possible trade? A trade back with a QB hungry team is a distinct possibility. If theyre particularly fearful the Bears may take Aaron Williams, the Steelers may try to jump ahead of them. Previous selection (14 April): Aaron Williams (CB, Texas)
32 Green Bay Packers Corey Liuget (DT, Illinois) Cullen Jenkins is likely to test free agency when (if) it eventually happens. Johnny Jolly wishes he had that problem ahead of him. Other possible selections: As reigning Champions the Packers could do in any number of different directions. Could they think Adrian Clayborn represents value here despite the concerns? Possible trade? A trade back with a QB hungry team is a distinct possibility. Muhammad Wilkerson out of Temple is another possibility at the tackle position. Previous selection (14 April): Corey Liuget (DT, Illinois)
