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Truth, Lies And Statistics
by Chris Brophy
24/10/2007
One thing about football that fascinates many fans is the numbers involved. There is a statistic for nearly everything and if there isn’t, there is a website out there such as footballoustiders.com making it up as we speak. Stats don’t always tell the full story – as an example, a team with a good pass defense might have that “good” statistic because opponents are just running all over them instead. Still, stats always make for some interesting reading and normally have a story behind them. There are few that I’m going to talk about within this article but the bottom line with statistics is that they can help form or confirm an opinion but they don’t always have the answer. When forming an opinion, feel free to use statistics, but there is no substitute for actually watching the game and seeing for yourself what a team or player is actually like.
Can’t Score – Can’t Stop Scoring:
The Patriots match-up against the Redskins this week. I’m sure you are all aware that Tom Brady has thrown 26TD’s already this year and is on pace for 62 for the season that will smash the current record of 49 held by Peyton Manning. Look deeper at the numbers and of those 26TD’s, 19 have gone to Wide Receivers. On the flip side you have the Redskins, who can’t get a Wide Receiver in the end zone for love nor money. Tight End Chris Cooley is fairing just fine with 4TD’s (and a 2 point conversion) but Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd (yes, he is still a Redskin!) can’t find the end zone. Both Moss and Randle El have had some injury issues but injuries can only be so much of an excuse for Moss who has suffered drops and fumbles. On the other hand, whilst Randle El may not have found the end zone, he is actually having his best season as a pro in terms of receiving. After 6 games he has 23 receptions for 422 yards at a healthy 18.3 yards per catch. That includes two 100 yard performances. At this current pace, he’ll amass 61 catches for 1125 yards. The problem with projections like this is it also means he’ll make 1000 yards plus on the season without scoring a TD!
The Patriots receivers are in the end zone so often stadiums are going to start charging them rent. Randy Moss is on target to catch over 20 touchdowns and should pass the 1000 yard mark for the season after 10 games. Wes Welker too should make over 1000 yards this season and if Donte Stallworth continues to pick up the pace like he has done in recent weeks, he’ll have a shot too. For a team that in the past was known for its collection of “no name” receivers but still managed to win big, it’s easy to understand why they currently look unstoppable. Before these guys came, their passing game was good, now it’s as good as any in the league and statistically looks like it is capable of smashing some records. The Patriots have not had a 1000 yard receiver since 2001, they might get three in one year now!
Ironically, the Patriots leading receiver last year was Reche Caldwell, who is now on the Redskins roster. That alone might tell the full story of these two teams set of receivers.
Speaking of Receivers:
 The Ravens Derrick Mason currently leads all players with 56 receptions after seven games and those numbers project to 128 receptions over sixteen games. If that were to happen, it would be the second best season ever for receptions surpassing Herman Moore’s total of 123 set in 1995 and trailing only Marvin Harrison’s monster season in 2002 where he had 143 receptions. The story behind these stats isn’t so positive for the Ravens though. Mason is only averaging 9.4 yards per catch, very low for a Wide Receiver and probably something along the lines you would expect from an average Tight End. Even then, looking at the list of passing stats on NFL.com doesn’t immediately tell the story. The Ravens are 17th in passing with 216.7 yards per game. Middle of the road so not really a problem right? Look deeper into the stats and think back to Mason’s low average and you find the issue – the Ravens average 5.8 yards per passing attempt, joint third worst in the league, yet no team has attempted more passes (275, although to be fair, the Ravens have not had their bye until this week). They are one of only two teams in the league (the 0-7 Rams are the other) with no completions of over 40 yards and they are joint third worst again in completions of over 20 yards with only 10 all season.
Basically, the Ravens have the worst deep passing attack of any team in real play-off contention at this point and they can not stretch the field (or is it will not stretch the field, questions have been asked of Brian Billick’s play calling?). As usual, their defense is playing well and they have found a rushing attack in Willis McGahee but the lack of a deep passing game that opponents have to respect is seeing defenses compress the field and may prove the Ravens undoing over the course of the season.
Running And Stopping The Run:
I’ve always been a firm believer that to be successful in the NFL you have to be able to run the ball and be able to stop the run. Looking at the top ten offensive and defensive team rushing statistics and in general, my theory rings true. Of the top ten rush offenses, seven have winning records and one is 0.500 (Denver). Of the top ten rush defense, eight have winning records.
So let’s look a little deeper again. One of the teams in the top ten rush offenses are the 2-4 Oakland Raiders. At the same time, they are a mirror image. Their 4th ranked running attack is counter acted by the 4th worst run defense which is conceding a league high mark of 5.2 yards per carry! A turnaround for a defense that looked to have being playing very solid football despite its offensive struggles last year. Of the defenses, the Eagles rank 8th but offensively drop down to 12th. Not a terrible place to be you might think especially as they average a very healthy 4.9 yards per carry but then look at their commitment to the run and you find the Eagles are only 26th in attempts. Running the ball is obviously an after thought for Andy Reid and it’s being a problem of his for some time now. Many might have pointed in the past to their lack of a big play Wide Receiver or the injuries to Donovan McNabb but I choose to think that if the Eagles were more balanced, they might just have made more than one Super Bowl appearance in Reid’s reign.
There is only one team left that causes me and my generalisation/theory a problem – the 2-4 Minnesota Vikings. It’s not like they have crept inside the top ten on both sides of the ball, they are actually the top rushing attack in the NFL at present – not only in rushing yards (982) but yards per attempt (5.5). Add in the fact only Jacksonville and San Diego have as many 40+ yard runs as the Vikings and only the Raiders, Cowboys and Steelers have more 20+ yard runs and you see that they are more than just a statistical one-off. Adrian Peterson has a lot to do with those stats of course but they are getting a contribution from Chester Taylor too. Defensively, the Vikings are having another great year playing the run after being the leagues best last season. They are 4th overall in rush yards allowed, second in yards per attempt (3.0) behind the Ravens by only 0.1 of a yard and have only allowed only two runs of over 20+ yards, better by only the Chargers and Redskins. They are tied with the Steelers for rush TD’s allowed with just the one.
 Given these two obvious strengths, why then are the Vikings only 2-4 and bottom of the NFC North. Well, whilst I have stated that rushing and being able to defend the run are vital parts of any team being successful it is still vital you are getting production from other areas. The Vikings currently rank 30th in passing offense and dead last in pass defense. Whilst I do think part of the reason the pass defense is ranked that low is because of their strong run defense, something opponents will have known about coming into the season as it was a strength last year thus leading to them attacking the Vikings via the air rather than be crushed on the ground, they have conceded some big days through the air, most notably to Brett Favre on the day he became the all-time leader in TD passes. When it comes to their offense throwing the ball, they have had issues at Quarterback with injuries, turnovers and the fact that they have become reluctant to throw the ball, ranking 28th in attempts. The most concerning stat with regards to throwing the ball though has to be their completion percentage of 48.8%, easily the worst in the league and their 5.8 yards per pass attempt, joint third worst with the aforementioned Ravens and the struggling Rams. It all adds up to the second worst passing rating of 58.2 for their passers combined. Basically, the Vikings have trouble completing passes and when they do, they don’t go very far. Until their passing attack gives teams something to worry about, they are going to be too one-dimensional to compete for post season.
So, if we go to the other end of the spectrum, will we find those that struggle to run and stop the run are mainly struggling teams? It certainly does feature many struggling teams (seven teams with losing records are in the bottom ten rush offenses and six teams and two .500 teams feature in the bottom ten rush defense), but surprising, when it comes to rush offense, it also features two division leaders in the Chiefs and Packers. The Packers (who have the least rush yardage of any team and the worst average per carry at 3.3) have had injury problems at the running back position whilst the Chiefs started slowly and are getting Larry Johnson more and more involved. I doubt they stay in the bottom ten much longer. The other team with a winning record in the bottom ten rush offenses is Detroit, who like the Eagles, rarely run the ball and are joint bottom in rushing attempts.
Of the bottom ranked rush defenses the Buccaneers are probably the biggest surprise. They are the 8th worst rush defense currently although they are only conceding 4 yards per rush which is the best of all those units in the bottom ten. They also have one of the better pass defenses in the league so whilst they don’t want to be in the bottom ten, it’s not an obvious weakness. The strangest team to look at in the bottom ten is the Jets. No shock they are there and are third worst but surprisingly, they have not conceded a run of over 22 yards all season and only one other run of over 20 yards. Only a few other teams can boast of not allowing such big runs. The problem for the Jets is given the amount of yards they have allowed it just means teams are running consistently against them without breaking the big gainer. The Jets have allowed more first downs rushing than any other team (62) and only the Dolphins have allowed more rushing TD’s. Given the Jets are tied for next worst in that category with the Rams only one touchdown behind and you can see why these three teams collectively are the worse in the league. For all the stats discussed, none is more vital than scoring and if you are letting people score easily…………
Odds And Sods:
Tom Brady might be looking like the guy who this season is airing it out and looking to be called “The Mad Bomber” but at this point, no one has completed more 40 yard plus passes than Jeff Garcia, who has also yet to throw an interception. Move it down a notch to 20 plays yard completions and Garcia drops off to 18th, Brady goes back top with 28 meaning one of every 8 pass attempts by Brady goes over 20 yards.
The 0-7 Rams offense may be decimated by injuries but only making 34% of their third down attempts, having a league low passing rating of 53.9, being sacked 24 times, throwing 15 interceptions and having a -12 turnover differential are also major parts of the reason for their winless record thus far.
For all the bashing the Saints offensive tackles have had for their lack of protection and good play, the Saints have conceded a league low 4 sacks. I bet if pressures and hits were taken into consideration though they wouldn’t look so good.
Can someone explain to the Falcons that they need to play Warrick Dunn less and Jerrius Norwood more please? Dunn has just over double the carries of Norwood (95 compared to 47) yet only has 20 more yards (292 compared to 272). Dunn has failed to break a run of over 20 yards this season too.
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