Pro Football Articles Opinion & Fantasy – Football Diner

Four Downs with Dang & Doc
NFL Draft Review
by Brian Davis and Paul Hopkins
May 10th 2011
 
Of the non-Newton Quarterbacks drafted, which would up in the best situation? (Locker to Tennessee, Ponder to Minnesota, Gabbert to Jacksonville, Kaepernick to San Francisco and Dalton to Cincinnati?)
 
DOC: I think naturally the two second round QB’s have landed themselves in better situations because there are smaller expectations. But we’re not talking about much difference because we know both will be starting in a maximum of a year. Dalton is a good QB and I’ve started to come round to him. But I don’t see him as being anything more than solid. What will unquestionably help him is that the Bengals look to have finally rid their diva receivers. Johnson/Ocho Cinco has been a bit of a cancer for years and whilst I like T.O. they’re better off without them. And when you roll off the names of all the talent on offence they have now, then you realise how they could become a special unit together. Dalton, Green, Caldwell, Shipley, Simpson, Gresham. That’s some ability there if they gel. I like the situation Dalton has fallen into which should make up for the disappointment he probably felt when he didn’t get to go in the first round.
Locker I do like, but he’s not worth the number eight overall pick. The Titans have definitely got a leader; he’s a high character guy who appears to love his football as anyone who saw his Gruden show will have seen. Will he be an upgrade over Vince Young? I think he’s going to be a better leader for that team, but some of the same issues remain. The accuracy one has been done to death; it’s down to Chris Palmer (who did improve Eli Manning) to make that better; and whilst Locker can move on his feet, he’s not as good as Young is in this area. Whether it’s the best situation for him is open for debate and I’m not really sure there’s anywhere else that would have been better for him. Would a year sitting help him? I’m not too sure. I guess Jake Locker just really is what Jake Locker is and the Titans think he will do for them. I just don’t think he’s going to be anything other than competent to good in his NFL career.
I mocked Ponder in the first round going #15 to the Dolphins so I was mildly, but not overly surprised that the Vikings took him. Like Locker, it was a reach; there’s no getting away from that. But I like him and if he can maintain an injury-free status – sadly I don’t think he will though. The Vikings have tied themselves to a good, solid, but very smart QB. They’ve had their chance to really win the big one when they assembled the all-stars and threw in the Favre-Diva and now they’ll just be solid with Ponder leading them.
Gabbert might well have landed the best situation. I already thought he was the best QB in this class; although he does need time and work to adjust from the system he ran at Missouri. And he’s likely to get that in Jacksonville with David Garrard the incumbent for another year at least.
Kaepernick is the most unknown one to me not having seen much of Nevada. But he might wind up being top of the class. I know we’re all meant to believe Jim Harbaugh is the QB guru and this is obviously going to be his guy that he is going to mold. There’s not been anything to suggest Harbaugh doesn’t a) know what he’s doing; and b) that Kaepernick isn’t the guy for him. And most of the basic ingredients you’d want are there. But it will take time. What would help him in the long-term is if Alex Smith has a strong season which doesn’t lead to disgruntled San Fran fans calling for Kaepernick before his time really arrives.
So, let’s look ahead to five years time, what do I see? They’ll all be starters. Who’ll be the best? For me, it’ll be Gabbert and Dalton.
 
DANG: None of them are in an ideal situation whilst we face the ongoing lockout right now, so those that look like they might be primed for starting roles come August/September are going to be in the worst situation, so it’s not looking good for Locker with only Rusty Smith on the roster, Ponder with only Tarvaris Jackson potentially around or Andy Dalton where Carson Palmer is threatening retirement and only brother Jordan remains. Having said that, I still believe that Dalton might well be the best QB to come out of this draft and might be in a better position to succeed from those with no veteran in front of them, but it will be a difficult first year for him if Palmer doesn’t return.
It’s also difficult to look at and analyze too much, because so much can change the second Free Agency kicks off and anything written here could be banished to the dustbin no sooner as it kicks off. If the Titans, Vikings and Bengals all end up with Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb and Kyle Orton, then the whole situation changes for them, and suddenly, the rookies aren’t all thrust into the spotlight and they all have a chance to succeed in this league.
Gabbert for me has probably found the best landing place in Jacksonville. I don’t think David Garrard has done much wrong in his time at Jacksonville, he’s a solid, unspectacular QB who gets the job done. For me, he sits just outside the top 10 Quarterbacks in the league. I don’t see Gabbert troubling him for a starting role any time soon, so for me he’s going to be firmly gripping his clipboard with a headset over his ears, learning from the sidelines. Jack Del Rio will probably use him for the 2012 season and if the Jags season is done and dusted by week 14, then we might see a 2-3 game cameo from Gabbert. The Jags have a history of drafting to create competition to keep people on their toes, this draft pick is no different to that. A small mention here for Ryan Mallet as well who has fallen into a really nice situation being backup to Tom Brady for the next 2-3 years.
The same can be said for Kaepernick in San Francisco, although with Smith liable to capitulate at any given moment, he could see the field of play before some 49ers fans might be comfortable with, despite the surefire cat calls no sooner as Alex throws an incomplete pass at the first public practice session! But even in San Francisco, you wouldn’t rule out somebody coming into be a bridge for the 2012 season if Harbaugh doesn’t like what he sees in Alex and doesn’t think Kaepernick is ready to play yet. It could get quite crowded on the Pine benches of San Francisco.
 
Was the Falcons trading up to select Julio Jones a good or bad move?
 
DOC: I think they massively overpaid. I don’t think he was good enough to go at #6 and then he’s just going to be the second best receiver on that team. I don’t think it was necessary. This is the team that got scorched by the Packers in the playoffs last year. It wasn’t the offence that massively under-performed. It was their defence who Aaron Rodgers crucified and could have scored points on all night long. Now, because of this huge bounty they’re down on picks from this past weekend and next year. They could have done with help on their pass rush, help in the secondary but now they’re tied into Jones. Mike Smith and Thomas Dimitrioff are tied into this pick panning out for them. Both have earned good reputations over the past few years for the job they’ve done with turning the Falcons around, and quite rightly Arthur Blank (one of the best owners out there) has put his faith in them with this move.
I get the logic. I understand that they want impact players to come in and push this team – because they are a premier force now – and a second receiver to compliment Roddy White is a need, but is it THAT big a need? Furthermore, were the Browns definitely going to take him? Would the Niners? The Titans had clearly zoned in on their guy, the Cowboys weren’t going to go receiver again. So they didn’t desperately need to go in there at #6 and give up that incredible amount for the draft’s second best receiver.
Jones is a very solid player. He’s an outstanding blocker. But he has issues with drops – not a huge problem as I think it can be overcome, but what does concern me is that he gets injured seemingly quite easily. And then he’s just going to be their #2 receiver and whilst having two top guys is never a bad thing, I don’t care what anyone says; they’re not worth this price.
 
DANG: I liked the aggressive move by Atlanta, which provided probably the first real Wow moment of the draft, but was shocked by the selection to be totally honest, I really thought they were moving up for a DE they had fallen in love with. Was a second WR alongside Roddy White really the missing key to what they needed to take the next step in the playoffs? The Falcons obviously think so and signaled their intent early on and must have got wind that somebody else was willing to move up to get him, or somebody in the top ten was going to pull the trigger on him to make such a move. But if I’m a Falcons fan, I’m slightly nervous about it and it’s a lot of their potential future given up if he fails to work out, particularly given Jones’ niggling injury history. This looks to me to be an all about this year move, because let’s not forget, this teams star offensive players are moving on in years now. White and Turner are approaching 30, Tony Gonzalez whilst still one of the best, is now 35, the Falcons have rolled the dice and are gambling on short term success. This is also a team that allowed the Packers to put 48 points on them in the playoffs, so to give up half your draft to take a Wide Receiver is a substantial gamble.
 
Best 1st Round pick(s)?
 
DOC: Cameron Jordan and Mark Ingram are excellent picks for the Saints. That Jordan fell all that way is amazing to me. I wanted him to go to Dallas and if he’d gone in the top ten then I don’t think anyone would have batted an eyelid. To last to #24 and get past the likes of the Chargers and the Patriots has given Sean Payton and Gregg Williams a steal. Easily the steal of this year’s first round. And they did very well nabbing Ingram also. The Saints went from 6th in rushing to 28th in rushing last season. Despite being able in the past to plug guys in and make do, they clearly couldn’t manage that last year. The best rusher in the draft at #28 for a first round pick in 2012 which will be a high one? Great bit of business in my mind. Ingram is big, strong, proven at a high level and will give them a dependable rusher which is something, despite flashes from Corey Ivy, Pierre Thomas etc, the Saints haven’t had. And certainly haven’t had in the Reggie Bush era. Not since Deuce McAlister.
Gabe Carimi is perfectly matched for the Bears. Possibly the best tackle in the draft, but maybe without the ability to switch to the left side at the pro level. But I’m a big fan of him having seen the impact he (as well as the rest of the Badger line) had in 2010. Considering how truly woeful that Bears O-line was in 2010 he’s an instant upgrade. And frankly, he’s their best lineman. He’s about to become Jay Cutler’s best friend.
Muhammad Wilkerson going to the Jets must have had Rex Ryan salivating. Even though he’s out of Temple and might be looked down on the guy is one of those very rare talents that have the size – 6ft 4ins, 305lbs but delivers. Nine-and-a-half sacks in 2010, building on productive numbers even since starting as a sophomore. I’ve heard some teams had him ranked in their top 15 talents in the draft. The Jets survived when Kris Jenkins got hurt, but Wilkerson’s versatility and ability to rush the passer will be an asset I’m sure Rex will enjoy making the most of. And Jimmy Smith of course, could be a monumentally great pick for the Ravens because he is potentially as good a corner as there is in the NFL. In some ways, him going there overshadows the fact that another very strong CB dropped all the way to #19 and the New York Giants in the shape of Prince Amukamara. All in all the value really, more so than ever came at the end of the first round. Just because so many teams really reached for talent, allowing quality players particularly on defence to drop.
 
DANG: Patrick Peterson, he looks like he could be a lock down corner to go alongside DRC makes the Cardinals a very tough team to pass on and was touted by many to be the best player in this draft. If you then get the best player in the draft at #5 then that’s extremely good business in my book.
 
Worst 1st Round pick(s)?
 

DOC: There are ‘bad’ picks because they were taken too early – Christian Ponder, Jake Locker and Julio Jones being the top three of these. But not that they’re bad players. I’m not in love with the Nate Solder pick by the Patriots. I definitely agree they need offensive line help; I had them taking Gabe Carimi in my first mock draft, but I don’t think he’s that good and I feel better tackles went after him in Constanzo, Carimi and maybe even Derek Sherrod. Maybe we’re now seeing why Bill usually trades out these picks. Dallas maybe could have got a bit more value out of Tyron Smith and selected him lower down, but I’m not going to criticise them too much for that. The Seahawks taking James Carpenter was an interesting move. Tackle at Alabama but mooted to be a guard at the next level. I’m not as against taking interior offensive linemen high in the draft as some are, but if you do then they need to be value. Carpenter isn’t Mike Pouncey, nor is he Danny Watkins. I think Seattle could have got better value out of this pick by going in any number of different directions other than this.
 
DANG: Seattle. Just a bizarre pick for me. It had me searching my Draft magazines to see who it was, and for a team with no playmakers, an OG/OT makes absolutely no sense what-so-ever. This pick should have been Kaepernick, Dalton or a DB or DL guy, even a trade back if they could have got it to pick up an extra 3rd and 5th or something, I really don’t know what the Seahawks were thinking when making this pick, it just strikes me as a panic or badly managed board pick.
 
Overtime!
 
Best value picks made in the entire draft?
 
DOC: Random thoughts from me. In addition to the ones listed above for the first round, I really liked the Cowboys taking Bruce Carter at #40. Yes, he is injured right now but it’s the only injury he’s really had in his career. He’s not injury prone. You want a player he’s most like Patrick Willis. Yes, he could be that good. And do you want one of them a quarter of the way into the second round? Yes, please. What about DeMarco Murray? Aside from ending Marion Barber’s time in Dallas, he has cast a shadow over Tashard Choice’s future. Could he even wind up starting, and he may eventually become the best back taken in this class? Not bad for a third rounder.
You have to mention at #51 Da’Quan Bowers going to Tampa Bay. It’s unquestionably a gamble but it could equally be a monumental steal for this team. Top five talent but even with injury concerns but for a team needing to upgrade their pass rush, getting Bowers and Adrian Clayborn is excellent. I’ll throw out, at #63 Marcus Gilbert (Florida) going to Pittsburgh as an excellent pick. I liked him a lot as a tackle and thought he had starter potential. On a line that is much maligned but remains a part of a successful team and offence, he has great value attached. Jacquizz Rodgers dropping to the Falcons in the fifth round is a tremendous bit of business. I think he could have a major impact from day one, complementing Michael Turner. I know I slated the trade for Jones but the Falcons offence is looking stronger. Shame the same can’t be said on defence. Aldrick Robinson of SMU going in round six is another good pick. He’s got good hands; good attributes and came out of June Jones’ system. He’s got a chance to make an impact for the Redskins. I just wonder though, if in ten years time we will look back and remember everyone questioning, criticising and speculating about Ryan Mallett as he leads the perennial powerhouse Patriots forward and wonder why that happened?
 
DANG: Patrick Peterson as above, as well as Cameron Jordan, who can’t go without a mention here too, I’m unsure as to why so many 3-4 teams passed up on him because he will possibly one of the best players to come out of this draft, he’s flexible, can play anywhere across the D line, can play all day and has a great character, I’m happy that he has gone to a team who will be competing in post season football, so NFC South watch out! Robert Quinn was a nice pickup for the Rams at #14 considering all the pre-draft hype and talk of him being a top 5-7 pick, if he stays injury free, then this represents excellent value. Muhammed Wilkerson to the Jets at #30 was also an excellent pick. Flexible D lineman who can play anywhere across the line and like Cameron Jordan, I was surprised to see him still on the board at the bottom of the first round.
 
Worst picks in terms of value, ability, need etc?
 
Doc: Well the Eagles leap out at me here, taking a kicker in round 4. They must really love this guy, and really must have decided after his awful post-season game (and yes, we know why) that David Akers’ time in Philly was done. I always thought the Eagles fanbase held Akers as one of their own, given his propensity to talk and at times hit above his level as a small guy and secondly, as a kicker. Not sure how they’ll take to a rookie. And he better be good. NFL fans as a general rule aren’t too tolerant of kickers who aren’t reliable. In Philly they’re probably even worse.
And I’m calling out each and every NFL franchise for not drafting Mark Herzlich out of Boston College. How you can say this kid is not worth a draft pick after all he’s gone through to come back is ludicrous. Never mind the esteem and projection he had before his brush with cancer. For nothing else his presence in your locker room is a good thing, and its obvious he could add something at very minimum on special teams.
 
DANG: Probably a toss-up between the previously mentioned Seattle pick and the Saints paying the Patriots to move back into the 1st Round to take a Running Back in Mark Ingram. Running Back seems to be a really unfashionable pick this year, possibly given the success of many of the late round/UDFA’s last season, and possibly purely because of the lack of top end talent in the pool this year, so it surprised me a little to see the Saints make an aggressive move for Ingram and yet again, the Patriots seem to manage to pull off trades to continuously build for future years. Another pick I don’t like in terms of value was the Eagles taking a kicker in the 4th Round when they already have David Akers? WHY?
 
Which teams had the best Draft weekend?
 
DOC: I think there were a few teams that really advanced themselves and made a statement of intent for 2011 in how they drafted. Two of my four come from the AFC South. The Texans were atrocious on defence last season. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a worse one. But they added JJ Watt who, whilst I’d probably have gone Cam Jordan there, is a stud football player. Brooks Reed was possibly a first round player so to sit tight and take him at 41 is a strong pick. And then trading back into the bottom of the second to nab Brandon Harris again, another player mooted as a possible first round talent is a great bit of business to help their porous secondary. Throw in that Kareem Jackson can’t be any worse next year as well as fourth rounder Rashad Carmichael and Wade Phillips has some tools to work with. I’ve heard some say, since the Draft they could be a playoff team this year finally. I don’t see it. I know the offence remains potent and the defence will improve, but it’s very young and evolving to a new system. And of course, there’s the usual roadblock called the Colts in the way.
And what of the Colts? Well, I really liked the top end of their draft. The first two picks being offensive tackles tells you all you need to know. Protect Peyton and this team are amongst the top. Anthony Costanzo and Ben Ijalana are plug in and play types. Costanzo in particular is ideal for the Colts. They’ve swung and missed on offensive linemen in recent years. I don’t think that’s the case this year. Drake Nevis from LSU will add some size to the defensive line, where the Colts again have needed strengthening and strong play for a few years. Delone Carter could make an impact as a rookie on a team that for most of the season really struggled to have any semblance of productivity from the position. They’ve not always had the best record with drafts in recent years, but I don’t think this will be the case with the 2011 class.
Detroit is next for me. Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh are a frightening prospect. Titus Young is another tool for Matthew Stafford to play with, assuming Stafford can remain healthy. MIkell Leshoure was a strong pick at the end of round two and will provide a nice compliment to Jahvid Best, and I think strengthen their running game considerably right now. What started out as being whispers are getting louder. The Lions might be ready for a playoff charge.
Another team drafting for now is the Chiefs. Jon Baldwin might not have the most positive reputation but he can play. And you can name them: Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn, T.O., Anquan Boldin and Dwayne Bowe. Receivers who Todd Haley has crossed swords with and got the best out of. Baldwin is going to be the next and will help ease the pressure on Dawyne Bowe in the passing game and support Matt Cassell’s continuing emergence. Justin Houston and Allen Bailey were solid picks to support Tamba Hali in the pass rush and represent excellent value in the third round. And then there’s Ricky Stanzi in the fifth; to me he has solid NFL back-up written all over him. I liked this draft too.
 
DANG: I started writing this thinking, I’ll do 3 or 4, but it turns out, when looking at them in depth, there really are a number of teams that deserve credit for their drafts! Arizona put together a really good looking draft, Peterson and Williams will be immediate in their impact on the team. Sam Acho might be one of the better day 3 picks of the draft and can potentially give teams matchup problems when he is on the field, he probably could have gone in Round 2, so is great value to see him in R4.
Baltimore put together a good looking group of guys with 2 picks at both WR and CB in the first 5 picks as well as a RT, all positions of need. I would imagine the Ravens now let go one of their high earning Free Agent CB’s to make room for Jimmy Smith.
The Bears had a nice, but small draft, filling areas of need, allowing them to concentrate hard on the other positions in Free Agency.
Credit must go to the Bengals, they played their best poker face, remained patient and waited until Round 2 to draft Andy Dalton. AJ Green is a nice stay and play bait for Carson Palmer and it’s looking like they’re moving away from character concern players to players who actually want to just get out there and play.
Cleveland continued the trend of excellent drafting in the AFC North as they made full use of Atlanta’s generosity, filling many, many areas of need and a really nice looking group of players.
Ted Thompson has done another very good job in Green Bay, he’s given his face of the Franchise some more protection and also given him some more weapons and bought in some backups and a potential replacement for Jonny Jolly, an excellent job all round.
You have to like what the Texans have put together too, they had massive problems on Defence last year, now they have an excellent Defensive Coordinator and spent 6 of their 8 picks on the defensive side of the ball, will they finally make 2011 THE year? JJ Watt will be a monster opposite Mario Williams. Brooks Reed and Brandon Harris should also be instant upgrades and starters.
Further mentions must go out to the Giants, Jets, and of course the Steelers, who without fail, always put together a top class draft.
 
Which teams had the worst Draft weekend?
 
DOC: Oh, you hate to kick a team but I think the Raiders went in too high on some of their selections. I guess last year’s strong draft had to be an aberration. Same with Seattle. Nothing fundamentally wrong with what they did, but it left a somewhat underwhelming taste in the mouth. Though I thought they would have needed a QB, but I guess free agency is going to be the place to sort that out.
That’s my point. With the draft and free agency turned topsy turvy this year it’s hard to know what’s rattling around in Head Coaches and GM’s minds as they get a grasp on filling needs. I don’t think until that takes place we’ll truly know. But some teams may well have left gaps following this past weekend hoping free agency will fill the void, and I think they may find they’re in quite a bind.
 
DANG: It’s going to sound like I’m jumping all over the Seahawks, but their draft was poor, following such a good one last year, I really don’t like much about it and it’s hard to look beyond that first round pick, they just got no value across the board. They’ve put in a few pieces to look after Whitehurst and make holes for Lynch, but if those two are what you are hinging your season on, then it’s going to be one long hard slog for Seattle when the season starts. The Bills draft was less than spectacular and they didn’t draft a QB, there really could see a mad scramble come Free Agency for half a dozen second tier or lower QB’s. I’m less than enthusiastic about San Diego’s draft, I don’t see the need for a second round safety and thought they probably went the wrong way with their first round pick, they were one of the teams I thought would be a good destination for Cal’s Cameron Jordan. The Eagles draft also had a couple of odd selections, the previously mentioned 4th round kicker and a 27 year old Guard in Round 1.