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Four Downs with Dang & Doc
2009 AFC North Preview
by Brian Davis and Paul Hopkins
17/7/2009
AFC North Preview This week Dang and Doc cast their eye over the AFC North. Can the Steelers repeat as Champions? Will Derrick Mason’s retirement be the difference between a playoff spot and disappointment for the Ravens? What impact will Eric Mangini make in Cleveland with his revamped roster? Is there any room for optimism for the Bengals?
 The Pittsburgh Steelers can repeat as the Super Bowl Champions
 Dang FACT ! – The Steelers followed up their last Super Bowl defence with a very complacent 8-8 season. I will state now that this will not happen again and this Steelers team could well be going all the way again in 2009. Head Coach Mike Tomlin welcomes back all of his players, a lot of them in their prime and still retains his Offensive and Defensive Coordinators. Offensively they’ve added further depth at Receiver, with slot guy Shaun McDonald signed from the Lions and Ole Miss speedster – Mike Wallace drafted, will create further options in the passing game. They’ve also added to their offensive line with Rookie guard Kraig Urbik, who as I stated in an earlier article, could impose himself within that line at some point this season. Last year’s first round pick Rashard Mendenhall should see more of the ball, providing ample support for Willie Parker, to keep the variation in the play calling retaining freshness between the pair. A more superior running game can only be more beneficial to Ben Roethlisberger who season by season, is slowly working his way towards all time great status. I have 2 concerns with next season. The first is really slight and that is at the cornerback position, William Gay and Ike Taylor will be solid, but when you have one of the best front seven’s, with 2 quality safeties next to them, they don’t need to be outstanding players. My second is a little more concerning, the offensive line. Simply put, they have to impose themselves on the running game and offer more to the Steelers all round game, as well as trying to stop Big Ben getting sacked 45 times or more again, as they have allowed the last three seasons. Steelers are stronger than they were last season and will be THE team to beat, not just in the AFC but in the NFL.
DOC FACT ! Absolutely they can. For me, we are looking at the Steelers, Patriots and the Colts (again) as the teams to beat in the AFC, and if you asked me to back one of them it will be the Steelers all the way. The other two just have too many major questions hanging over them going into 2009. The only questions the Steelers have over them are the same albeit a little lesser that they had in 2008 and they won it all with them. Mendenhall, I fancy was a bit of a one year wonder at Illinois but he will share the load with Parker and if not then the Steelers look to be able to get enough production out of whoever is there to function. The much maligned offensive line pulled itself together to see the team through, and maybe they relied too much on the passing game at times (understandably with the injuries) but the receivers delivered across the board with perhaps the exception of Limas Sweed. The additions you listed simply give them more of an edge. The defence is going to be no worse and perhaps even better with an extra years experience behind it. Of course, the usual question will arise about whether the hunger is there to go back after winning the big one; the Steelers did not have a very successful year after their victory in 2005, but the questions over Cowher’s future loomed large. They’re better set this year and have an outstanding young coach in place for decades to come. The only things that I can see stopping them is a superman return from Brady and their own complacency.
 The retirement of Derrick Mason will result in the Ravens not getting to the post season
 Dang FACT ! – Well if there were any lingering doubts as to whether we were going to see a “sophomore slump” from Joe Flacco then those just increased ten-fold. There’s nobody out there available as a free agent in the same class as Mason. The price on any trade discussions are now going to be sky high for a Boldin or Marshall type player and the depth chart beyond Clayton, who is no better than an average #2 guy through the NFL, is not great at all. Mason was Flacco’s go-to- guy last year, it’s going to be hard to replace 80 receptions and over 1000 yards, I certainly don’t see that production with what they have left. At Tight End Todd Heap is starting to show his age, Free agent signing LJ Smith again, is nothing better than an average player who also suffers with injury niggles. The Ravens are going to be even more heavily reliable on their Jumbo formation power running game to bail them out if they can’t address this mini crisis. Another concern here is who do the young guys turn to now? Mason is a perfect mentor and role model for any young receiver in the league, a guy for the youngsters to learn from and look up to. Anybody got Marvin Harrison’s phone number? If Mason is using this as contract negotiations and does return, then I believe he’s so crucial to Flacco, that they can make the playoffs. The defence can do its thing and ride the wave into post season. If Mason is a definite goner, then the Ravens will just miss out due to stronger runners up in other divisions.
DOC FICTION ! Because I don’t believe they were destined for the playoffs anyway. Mason’s retirement (as it stands) is a body blow to the team who rely on his impeccable consistency to keep the offence functioning effectively. I actually think Flacco has enough about him to still make this offence work, but as with any team, losing a go-to guy is a killer. The running game should still be strong enough to make sure the Ravens keep it moving. And the defence is still going to be strong, although I wonder if it will be as strong. You failed to mention the defence. Rex Ryan has gone now, and there seems to be an assumption that they’ll just continue as before. And whilst I can understand that much of the personnel remains the same and the system will unlikely change, the chemistry is going to be different now Rex has left town. Bart Scott has left too and I think he might be a big miss in 2009. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Ravens are destined for a poor season, more that I think they will do well enough a 9-7 season I think is in the offing but I just think there are teams elsewhere in the AFC that will beat them out for a wildcard slot.
 Carson Palmer returning from injury will propel the Bengals into the post season
 Dang – FICTION ! – I think they’ll come close. Mason’s retirement may even bring them a couple of games closer to the Ravens, but their lack of an effective running game may cost them dear in the long run. I don’t believe Cedric Benson and Brian Leonard provide a strong, consistent enough combo to beat either the Ravens, or the Steelers next season. This could be another team looking to 2010 before mounting a more serious threat for the divisional title and the playoffs. Laveranues Coles will be a nice option opposite Chad Johnson. He will succeed because he is a strong possession receiver who quietly goes about his business without drawing attention to himself. I have too many reservations over the Bengals trenches for them to mount a challenge on the Ravens and Steelers. Bobbie Williams and Andre Smith should provide a solid right hand side of the O line, but Andrew Whitworth and Nate Livings will have Carson Palmer scrambling for his life on the left hand side, not a scenario he is going to welcome when returning from a long term injury. On the other side of the ball, they lack any kind of pass rush to be able to consistently pressure and hit opposition Quarterbacks. Defensive Tackles Tank Johnson and Pat Sims are about the best they have to offer, unless rookie Defensive End Michael Johnson can step up to the plate very early on. For 2009 I see improvement, maybe to around .500 but I don’t see a wild card slot, they are moving in the right direction.
DOC FICTION ! I had to chuckle when I got this one through as I don’t even think Peyton Manning, Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger could carry the Bengals on their back to the post-season, let alone Carson Palmer. I never really got all the hoola about Palmer, to me he is just another one off the hype conveyer belt that is the University of Southern California. I mean, how many good years has he had? One. Is that enough to justify some of the praise that still to this day gets lavished on his shoulder? For me, I don’t think so. We can all point the finger at the injuries and the one he suffered in the post-season against the Steelers was an absolute killer I understand that. So lets get that out of the way right away, Carson Palmer alone is not enough to take this team to the playoffs. Add in the rest of the roster and it simply is not going to happen. I like some of their draft picks and they’ve made one or two reasonable acquisitions that give the offence some shape. Coles and Ocho Cinco are actually a pretty good combination and if he can stay off his boat Cedric Benson might finally show what he could at Texas. The draft beefed up that offensive line nicely and I think the offence might be functional. Defensively, it will be interesting to see how Mike Zimmer shapes things but as you’ve noticed the pass rush is minimal. Behind the line the Bengals look ok, Mauluga and Rivers will form a strong tandem and they’ll need to. That being said I still don’t see them stopping too many offences.
 It doesn’t matter if Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson starts at Quarterback for the Browns next year, they’ll still finish bottom of the North
 Dang FACT ! – The sooner they announce Brady Quinn as the starter the better. Derek Anderson was soon found out once teams started studying his game film and floundered when confronted with pressure. In left tackle Joe Thomas, Quinn has all the protection he could ask for on his blind side, he is a more composed passer than Anderson. Quinn will also need a steady pair of hands to throw to, so Braylon Edwards has to recapture his form of 2007, erasing the memories of 2008’s drop filled disaster of a season. Rookies Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massoquoi will offer a nice new variation and will be brought into action early, free agent signings David Patten and Mike Furrey will also rotate in and out at receiver. The Browns should hopefully be able to use these guys to open up their running game a little. Jamal Lewis has a little left in the tank, so to try to keep him fresh Harrison and James Davis will see the field. Rookie Centre out of Cal, Alex Mack will be the man charged with the duties of snapping the ball to Quinn, pushing the line forward opening up the gaps for the backs, he’ll also offer the flexibility of being able to play any of the interior O line positions but should lock up the Centre position for a number of years. Defensively, the Browns have done very little in bringing any great quality at all in and that has to be a huge worry. Their additions include, four former Jets players, who previously played under Eric Mangini, but it won’t be enough to move this franchise off the basement of the AFC North on 2009.
DOC FACT ! Because of two reasons. The team around them is in a total state of flux now that the ‘Mangenius’ has come into town and began completely sweeping away every semblance of what used to be a roster in Cleveland. I find this approach completely baffling. A year ago, the Browns were everyone’s favourite hype boys, they were back, and they were going to the post-season. And what happened? Their season tanked. But the thing is, that was what should have happened. Their schedule last season was brutal. And the second reason is that frankly, both Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn are moderate on their best days. Quinn will win the starting job as they’ve got too much invested in him not to, but he is simply a ‘nice’ quarterback. A middle of the road guy who throws a nice ball and does ok, won’t cost you too many games but then on the same tack won’t win you many either. But he will never be more than bang average. Like his USC compatriot in this division, he reaps the benefits of the hype that swirls around the college he played for. The Browns are light years away from doing anything.
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