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Four Downs with Dang & Doc
2009 AFC South Preview
by Brian Davis and Paul Hopkins
23/7/2009
This episode Dang and Doc focus on the AFC South. After the coaching changes in Indianapolis, will there be a visible impact on the Colts performance? How will the Titans fare without Albert Haynesworth. Will the Texans finally break through in 2009 and just how much pressure is Jack Del Rio under heading into the forthcoming campaign.
 The change in coaching personnel at the Colts will negatively impact on their performance this year.
 DANG FICTION ! – We’re not talking about a team led by any old Quarterback who’s going to have new coaches all around him. We’re talking about the best Quarterback in the whole league with new coaches. A Quarterback whose previous coaches used to let him change the play at the line of scrimmage based on what he saw in front of him and calls in the plays when Sorgi was in during garbage time for him, this will just be a mild transition for Peyton’s Colts. There are still areas of the Colts offensive game that can be improved, certainly the running game immediately stands out, however Donald Brown was drafted in to beef that up. He’ll certainly add some extra flair to an already Super Bowl ready offense in terms of skill positions. My main concern offensively is up front with the O line, other than Center Jeff Saturday, they were a very inconsistent and average bunch in 2008. They have to take the step to the next level in 2009. Defensively, I think we’ll see some tweaking; the drafting of two run stuffing Defensive Tackles in Fili Moala and Terrence Taylor certainly looks to have them moving in to a more, stop the run first style defence from former Coach Tony Dungy’s Tampa 2 look. But as for change, I see no real change here. All I see is another Indianapolis Colts march into post season as AFC South Champions. If the O line performs well and opens up lanes for Brown and Addai then they’ll be contenders, if they don’t, they’ll fall in the playoffs, again.
DOC FICTION ! Because their other Head Coach still remains. And if Peyton Manning is there then the Colts will still be a force and will still win the AFC South and be pushing to be the AFC’s Superbowl contender. The off-season changes and Peyton’s now quite famous whinge about the loss of the Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator are well known but have we heard anything since then? No, because they’ve knuckled down and entering camp are rightly again the favourites in this division. The talent on offence remains as potent as ever. Throw in Donald Brown and they may be able to get their running game back on track. The defence will do what the Colts defence does, but they will still be the best team in the AFC South.
 2009 will finally be the breakthrough year for the Houston Texans.
 DANG FACT ! – Ah ha! Trendy pick time I don’t see any reason why this can’t finally be the breakout year, depending of course, on what people class, as a breakout year. The Texans are yet to have a winning season since their re-incarnation, they’re also yet to make post season. If breakthrough year means a winning record only, then yes, they’ll achieve this. If breakthrough year means a winning record and making the playoffs, then yes, they’ll achieve this too. Let us look at the offense: Good young quarterback, who if stays healthy, can become a very good Quarterback Check. Great young Running back star who had nearly 1300 yards in his rookie year Check. One of the best Wide Receivers in the league Check. Solid and improving, offensive line Check. What’s not to like about the Texans’ Offense? You can question the depth, so if the starters can stay relatively untroubled, I see no reason as to why this offense can’t propel the Texans into a breakthrough year. On the other side of the ball I like the direction the Texans are moving in. Three former first round picks on the D line with plenty of options for rotation, without a drop off in talent. Behind them, lines up a nice group of young linebackers with bags of talent which will complement the D line very nicely, all these should provide ample pass rush and pressure to relieve the weakest point of the Texans Defence, it’s secondary.
DOC FICTION ! By breakthrough if it means making the playoff then it’s simply not going to happen. There are two teams that will definitely finish better than the Texans in the Colts and Titans and possibly a third in the form of the Jaguars if they can sort themselves out from last season’s disaster. It’s a bit of a pity for the Texans that they play in such a tough division. If, for example they were in the AFC West they’d have a legitimate shot at winning the Division. But then you can say that about quite a few teams. Gary Kubiak has pulled this team around. They have a good QB (if he can stay healthy), a playmaker in the backfield and arguably the best wide out in the game in Andre Johnson, but it is defensively I’ve grown to like the Texans. Mario Williams now no longer has to face any questions or criticism for being taken ahead of Bush and VY, and they have strengthened elsewhere through FA and the Draft. They’re in the South, they’re going in the right direction but they are going to need others to falter to truly break through in 2009.
 The loss of Albert Haynesworth will result in the Titans missing the playoffs.
 DANG – FICTION ! – The AFC South will provide the AFC with three playoff teams this year; Indianapolis, Houston and Tennessee. Pittsburgh, San Diego and New England will be your remaining three divisional winners, to make your six teams going to post season, as the AFC South proves to be the division for 2009. Whilst Free Agent addition Jovan Hoye, last year’s backup Jason Jones and second round draftee Sen’Derrick Marks aren’t going to replace Big Albert’s boots, they’ll provide a solid enough structure to the line with all three likely to see the field regularly. They could well profit from teams moving towards the outside to double team Kyle Vanden Bosch who offenses will now see as the main threat. I see no major issues with the Titans’ offense. Smash and Dash (LenDale White and Chris Johnson) will continue to blossom, continuing to be one of the best running back duo’s in the NFL. Kerry Collins will continue to target Justin Gage as his safe pair of hands in the passing game. He also welcomes new additions in Nate Washington who will help stretch the field and first round draftee Kenny Britt who might well turn out to be a nice possession guy for Collins to use. Last year’s fourth round draftee out of Cal, Lavelle Hawkins, should help keep Britt on his toes for third receiver duties.
DOC FACT ! Jeff Fisher is for my money one of the very best coaches in the NFL and he has done a superb job year on year with this team, who for a few years maybe weren’t the most talented but yet he always managed to get them close, if not indeed, into the post-season. However, this year I fancy it will be one of those close misses. Haynesworth leaves a big hole on the defensive line and whilst you can rightly point at the other players on the line having produced consistently, there will be an element that Haynesworth freed up their ability to make plays. With him gone, the likes of Kyle vanden Bosch can be focused on much more. It won’t just be the loss of Albert Haynesworth, as the offence still needs to find a groove. Kenny Britt will help whoever ends up under centre, most likely Kerry Collins and the running game remains strong behind an under-rated offensive line. The Titans still look like a nine-win side, but that might just not be enough to play in January.
 Jack Del Rio will need to take the Jaguars to the post-season this year, otherwise he will be out of a job.
 DANG FICTION ! – As per my Titans response, I believe this division to be the strongest in the AFC for the 2009 season, with Jacksonville being the weakest of the four. For all the reasons I’ve given above, I really like all three to make the playoffs and unfortunately that just leaves the Jags who will come up short this season, but won’t perform bad enough for Del Rio to lose his job, his seat will be a much warmer one as we head towards the 2010 season, but with the toughness of this division, I think he almost gets a waiver after, with the premise that the Jags strengthen and head to post season in 2010. I like what the Jags put together offensively through Free Agency and the draft. Torry Holt, Tra Thomas were nice additions, albeit guys with their best years behind them, but immediate contributors and a #1 guy for David Garrard to throw to in Holt. Through the draft, Eugene Monroe and Ebon Britton will really help to beef up the O line to look after Garrard, whilst making some holes for load carrier Maurice Jones-Drew and Full back Greg Jones.
Prolific College receivers Mike Thomas and Jarrett Dillard will certainly see action for the Jags next season. I like the Jags versatile linebacker group and expect them to show up in a big way in 09, but the defensive line has to also show up for the Jags to have any kind of chance of hanging with the rest of the South. The secondary situation looks a bit messy, so the front 7 will likely be keys to how they perform. If there’s a lack of rush and pressure up front then expect the Jaguars to come close to leading the league in giving up big plays again.
DOC FACT ! Big pressure on Del Rio this year in my view. Cast your minds back to last year and the Jags (including by this writer in this column) were being tipped for big things. In our NFL preview edition last September someone (not me!) tipped them to He might miss the post-season but get a stay of execution. However, I think that to be really free of the speculation he will need to get them a wild-card berth at the minimum. Last season he saw his offensive line decimated by injuries but they have strengthened it through the two tackles taken in the first two rounds. I think ultimately though, Del Rio’s future will come back to how the offence is able to function and whether David Garrard can click with Torry Holt. Holt is arguably the biggest name wide out that he’s had to throw to in his time in Jacksonville and if those two click the Jags could be back with a bang. But Del Rio has had a lot of time and latitude to build the Jaguars now. He, like many coaches before him is finding that time is running out.
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