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Four Downs with Dang & Doc
2009 NFC South Preview
by Brian Davis and Paul Hopkins
20/8/2009
This week the previews move onto the NFC South where Jake Delhomme will try to take the Panthers back into the playoffs. Elsewhere will the Falcons make history and have successive winning seasons? Are the Buccaneers destined for a year of re-building and will the Saints continue to entertain, but without the results?
 Jake Delhomme will recover from his playoff humiliation to lead the Panthers to the Divisional title.
 DANG FICTION ! Delhomme choked in last season’s playoffs and was then handed a new FIVE year deal (that’s one year for each interception against the Cardinals) he is now under the microscope. I don’t believe he’ll be able to handle the pressure enough to win the division. Too often he’s struggled when the heat is on. This could well be the same old story again.
The Panthers return all of their 2008 starters to the Offense, including a strong Offensive line to aid the best Running back pair in the league and one of the best playmaking Wide out’s in Steve Smith. HOWEVER: The depth is worryingly thin, 2-3 injuries in key positions and this team might well struggle to an 8-8 finish.
If Delhomme gets injured, can Matt Moore or Josh McCown really steer them to the divisional title? Will they then sell-out to the run game? If Steve Smith is out for any great length can the ageing Moose and Dwayne Jarrett be counted on to deflect enough attention from the running game?
Defensively, it’s almost as you were as well, as 9 starters now return following Ma’ake Kemoeatu’s season ending injury. A new Defensive Coordinator; Ron Meeks, has been installed.
Everette Brown came at a very high price to somebody who didn’t overly impress me in College, which leaves the pass rush almost all down to Julius Peppers.
To win this division again, Carolina must take more gambles, losing some of the conservativeness on both sides of the ball to bring home the bacon in 2009.
Another key for me is for them to try and match the standard of play up to Week 12 of 2008. If they carry on as they left off from Week 12 onwards, then I don’t think that shootout football will get them much further than a Wild Card spot and no further.
DOC FICTION ! Simply because my prediction for this division is that the Falcons will take the title in 2009. Delhomme had arguably the biggest melt-down in post-season history for quite some time (take that Tony Romo haters!) against the Cardinals, but his position is quite safe for the time being. He came back from having his place seriously under question to take this team back to the post-season, so has earned another chance despite the debacle in January. And behind him, the Panthers don’t have someone ready to take on that mantle. Delhomme (usually) plays a very steady game and with possibly the best receiver in the league and one of the best running back tandems he doesn’t have to go out there and light up the field like Drew Brees does. Defensively they’re still relatively strong with Julius Peppers still in town. Its not that I don’t think they will have a strong year because I think they’ll be right up there again, I just take the view that the Falcons will be taking the South in 2009.
 The Falcons will fail to get back to back winning seasons for the first time and miss out on the playoffs.
 DANG FICTION ! As a neutral, what’s not to like about this current Atlanta Falcons offense?
Loaded with talented young stars throughout; Rookie QB Matt Ryan, who almost had an MVP season, a very fluid pair of running backs in Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood, a nice three-some of Wide Receivers including Roddy White as the leader and new addition, Hall of Fame bound Tight End, Tony Gonzalez, with a reasonable Offensive line leading the way.
Gonzalez will deflect some of the attention from White which will be a nice advantage to the Offensive game calling, really allowing White to stretch the field. Teams simply have to account for Gonzalez which will leave White with single coverage at times and he could put up some even bigger numbers this year.
The defense will be the key as to whether the Atlanta Falcons are a playoff team or a Super Bowl team. If they exceed how I expect them to do, then they could make the Super Bowl, however, I think they’ll fall a game or two short of that mark.
I’m not convinced that both the pass rush or the secondary are good enough to make it all the way. Put that alongside a much tougher schedule than they faced last season, will really make them earn their post-season place again this year.
They won’t repeat an 11-5 season but I’ll say they make a 9-7 or 10-6 season tops. Just squeezing into their first ever, back-to-back, winning seasons.
DOC FICTION ! Because as stated above; this team are going to win this division and buck the topsy-turvy trend that has blighted it for years now. I think they’re set to be among the top teams in the NFC for as foreseeable as we can in today’s modern league. Everything appears to be falling into place. Mike Smith has gone from being met with a who? when he got the job to being regarded as a shrewd operator at Head Coach, backed up by a strong cast of assistant coaches. Arthur Blank has always provided some of the best facilities in the league and has probably been let down by those he has chosen to lead his team and be the flagship for the Falcons (see Bobby Petrino and Michael Vick), so everything is there off the field for them to continue to impress. On the field the big question I have is whether Matt Ryan will avoid a sophomore slump. I believe he will do – he has the air of Peyton Manning about him which is arguably as big a praise as you can lavish on him, particularly entering into year two in the NFL. Offensively the cast is as strong as it was last year with Roddy White settling down now he has his $50m contract, and the addition of Tony Gonzalez looks like a masterstroke. Losing Harry Douglas is a blow but one I expect them to overcome. Defensively the cast assembled is young but talented and has a years experience from 2008 to grow from. Whilst they lack the standout superstar they are consistent right across the board and will be enough to see the Birds back in the playoffs.
 The Buccaneers are destined to finish bottom of the pile in the South.
 DANG FACT ! – It looks like the end of an era in Tampa Bay and the rebuilding and transitional stage is now going to hit them. The other three teams are seemingly pointing in the right direction at this moment in time.
2009 won’t be without its high drama though as they have enough players on their offense to hang with a lot of teams in this league. Earnest Graham and Derek Ward are a very good half back pairing. The traded for Kellen Winslow who does have injury history, but also the ability to be one of the best Tight Ends in the league, Antonio Bryant got franchised so he’ll play hard again next season and should remain interested and focused on the job in hand. The O Line is strong and will be a benefit whoever Raheem Morris decides to use as his starting quarterback from Byron Sandwich, Rookie Josh Freeman or Luke McCown.
Sadly none of this will be enough as the defense is in a bit of a pickle. Long term Buccs leader and heartbeat of defense; Derrick Brooks has been let go, so they now have to build around the under-rated Barrett Ruud who can now has to become that leader. As for the rest of the D, it’s just not good enough right now and the other three teams in this division will more than likely exploit that.
So whilst I think they’ll put up points regularly, more often than not, it will prove to not be enough.
At least we have the Creamsicle jersey’s to look forward to this year!
DOC FACT ! Fact, because everyone else is better than them at the present time. After the end of season catastrophe that saw them lose to the Raiders when a win at home got them a wildcard berth, John Gruden was fired to go and work on Monday nights and the Buccs took a long-term view of their future. Appointing a very young and inexperienced coach who appears to have bagfuls of potential and who most believe could be special, signified the view that after shuffling along year to year under Gruden, they needed to look at where they wanted to be in a few years time. The defence was looking old and tired and once Monte Kiffin left to join his son in Tennessee, the brush swept through the Buccs defence clearing the old guard to allow the youth to come through. And after years of shuffling around QB’s like pawns on a chess board, Gruden left the Buccs with a far from settled outlook at the quarterback position. Byron Leftwich might offer the best option for them at the moment whilst Josh Freeman gets himself ready to take on the mantle eventually, but I think Freeman’s moment might arrive sooner than we think when the Buccs find themselves unlikely to reach the post-season.
 The Saints will continue to be one of the most watchable teams but will still fail to reach the post-season.
 DANG FICTION ! – The Saints will continue to be one of the most watchable teams and they will make the Post-season. I believe that the Saints can snatch this division from under the noses of the Panthers and Falcons Like the Falcons, there are a lot of things to really like and many similarities about this offense in New Orleans, especially if they install Pierre Thomas as the starting Running back, using Reggie Bush as more of a Receiver and option out of the backfield as I really don’t like his inability to run between the tackles.
Elusive yes, good returner yes, good receiver and check-down option yes. Good running back – not really.
Marques Colston and Devery Henderson will stretch the field, allowing Jeremy Shockey, Billy Miller and Bush space in the flats to take Brees’ dump-off passes, keeping the offense moving.
Heath Evans may have to become the 3rd and short man for the Saints after suffering over and over in these situations last year, Bush clearly can’t get it done and they can’t be reliant on the dink and dump passes every time they encounter it.
There’s lots of depth on Defense, particularly at the Defensive End position. New DC Gregg Williams should make the Defense much more aggressive than recent times, by being so and taking more chances, should help out the high scoring, explosive offense.
New additions Malcolm Jenkins, Darren Sharper will help shore up a long suffering secondary.
DOC FACT ! The Saints will always be watchable for the sheer aerial onslaught that their offence brings and their somewhat porous defence. Watching Sean Payton year on year try to improve the defence has been quite interesting because he clearly knows it needs to be done, but it never seems to make that much of an impact. This year could however be different. Sedrick Ellis should be able to kick on from his rookie year, and Jon Vilma has had a year to settle in. Malcolm Jenkins is one of those rookies that look able to slot right in from day one and in the Saints secondary that is needed urgently. The offence will still be strong as long as Drew Brees is under centre. I may not be the biggest fan out there of Reggie Bush or Jeremy Shockey but the rest of the cast are made to look so much stronger by his presence with the ball in his hand. So if they are going to do it, then this might be the year. But I just don’t buy this team as credible contenders. In their own division they have two very strong challengers ahead of them, there are two excellent teams in the East (and another two good teams to boot), three strong teams in the North and then there’s the obligatory team from the West who will make the post-season. Do the Saints have enough class across the board to force their way through all that to the post-season? Not for me.
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