Redskins / Rams trade proves draft value chart is officially outdated by Alistair Houghton March 12th 2012
The Jimmy Johnson draft value chart is well and truly dead.
The final nail in the coffin was provided by the Washington Redskins. Their trade for the second overall pick, owned by the St Louis Rams, completely disregarded the system that has become more and more irrelevant over time.
According to Johnsons famed rating system, the second overall pick is worth 2600 points. The sixth overall pick, which the Redskins own, is worth 1600. That means that going by the chart the Redskins only had to find picks worth a total of 1000 points. The second round pick they gave to the Rams is worth 520 points, so in theory they only needed to find picks worth 480 more points.
They gave away an awful lot more than that.
By giving away two further first rounders the Redskins have traded away value that will be a minimum of 1180 points (and that would be if they won the Super Bowl back to back for the next two seasons), overpaying by at least 700.
But this is not the first recent blockbuster trade that has absolutely flouted the value chart. Last year the Falcons gave up a first, second and fourth (as well as this years first and fourth round picks) to get up to pick Julio Jones at number six. According to the value chart the Falcons spent 1876 points to get up to a pick worth 1600 points. While not nearly as expensive as the Redskins trade they still seriously overpaid according to the chart.
The chart has become obsolete at the top of the draft. Teams are willing to offer more than the designated value to get a player that they think can be a game changer. The economics of the draft have led to this situation.
Over the last few years teams havent been willing to trade up in the draft to get a player they really want (with the exception of the Jets and Mark Sanchez). This was down to the huge amount of guaranteed money that the first twenty or so draft picks were getting. This meant that the economics dissuaded people from trading up in the draft and instead settling for value picks in the later first and early second rounds.
Now with the implementation of a rookie salary cap, it has had the opposite effect on teams. Knowing that whoever they draft wont take up a disproportionate amount of cap space, there have already been two blockbuster trades in the first two drafts where the cap was in place. This lack of financial commitment means that teams feel like they can afford to swing and miss on difference makers.
Whether we continue to see huge amounts of picks changing hands to get to the top of the draft over the next few years is debateable and certainly depends on the quality of the players (its possible that next year teams might want to go up and get USC quarterback Matt Barkley). What is certain is that there will be a new set of standards by which teams evaluate trades, and teams will feel freer than ever to pay what they must to acquire the player they truly covet.
The Jimmy Johnson draft value chart is well and truly dead.
