|
The Football Diner Big Top 5
How To Guide:
Return to the Super Bowl
by Jody Jamieson
15/1/2009
Last year throughout the playoffs, I did the Football Diner “How to” guide for any team trying to stop the Patriots going 19-0. The Jacksonville Jaguars didn’t listen, rushing 4 and letting Brady pick them apart. The Chargers did listen, but got too banged up to get it done. Thankfully, Tom Coughlin used his two weeks between the NFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl wisely and found a way to stop perhaps the greatest offense of all time, while managing to make Eli Manning look serviceable enough to score 17 points on a team that gave up 28 to AJ Feeley and 24 to Kyle Boller.
This year the Baltimore Ravens have achieved more than they could possibly have achieved in their wildest dreams. With rookie Head Coach John Harbaugh and rookie quarterback Joe Flacco having fabulous seasons the Ravens find themselves in the Championship game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. If the Ravens go down in this game, I very much doubt Harbaugh will go into the offseason at peace with his fantastic first season. This will be the Ravens third crack at the Steelers, and if they go 0-3, especially in another close game, Harbaugh’s head will probably explode. Luckily, the How To guide is back and I have compiled a rough game this week on Top Fives for the Ravens in their quest to return to the Super Bowl for the first time in 8 years.
5. Le’Ron McClain
 I don’t think this is a game for Willis McGahee. McGahee simply won’t be effective in a game like this, even as a change of pace. McClain is probably the key to this game for the Ravens. Darren Sproles looks like a good back in the NFL both running the ball and receiving out of the backfield. While he made the Steelers D look ordinary on a late catch and run, realistically the Steelers were always going to be able to contain him running the ball. Sproles may break off a few decent runs, and he had a nice enough game, but he was never going to wear out the Steelers relentless front 7. Brandon Jacobs had reasonable success against Pittsburgh other than on the goalline. McClain however did have very good success against the Steelers. In the two games McClain had 39 carries for 150 yards, but on Sunday, I think McClain has to carry the ball 25-30 times, whether or not he’s gaining a huge amount of yardage. As the game wears on, tackling a 260 pound beast of a back is not going to be particularly fun for Pittsburgh and will wear them out. Providing the Ravens at least keep the game close in the 4th quarter, their defense should be feeling the effects and that’s when the Ravens can take advantage.
If McClain doesn’t get great yardage then at least he should wear them out, but if he can make some positive plays on the ground, he can help set up the passing game, which is where the Ravens can really take control. Which is why despite me believing McClain needs to carry the ball up to 30 times, the Ravens still have to be committed to…
4. Throwing the ball on first down
Flacco can be trusted to make the right decision, even against the Steelers defense. In the two games, Flacco threw two interceptions. One was a tipped ball by his receiver, and the other was a desperation heave to the endzone down 4 in the last 20 seconds in the 13-9 game in Week 15. The Ravens simply have to be committed to throwing the ball on first down as I think the best chance they have to score points offensively early on is on the perimiter. And if the running game is working early, then the playbook will be opened up to really exposing Pittsburgh’s only slight defensive weakness. Play action bootlegs are the best way to get Flacco involved on first down as he can either get a man open when they respect the run, he can go deep, or he can carry the ball himself if no-one gets open.
If the Steelers aren’t respecting the run then they are under pressure. A three step drop and a quick pass may seem the obvious plan, but that’s dangerous against Pittsburgh. They really need to take a couple of deep shots on first down, but more often than not if they’re passing on first down, getting Todd Heap in the flat or running things like crossing routes or hitch routes with slot receivers may get them success. After all, getting 4 or 5 yards on first down opens up the playbook more than a run back to the line of scrimmage.
But the absolute most important thing is taking care of the football. If Flacco drops back on first down and nothing gets open, then holding onto the ball and taking the sack is ok. One thing you can almost ensure is that if the Ravens end up 2nd and 16, Cam Cameron will not allow Flacco to take a risk in turning the ball over in plus territory. That’s because in this game Cameron understands…
3. Punting the ball is not a disaster
If it wasn’t for some key turnovers by the Titans, we all know Tennessee would be hosting Pittsburgh this week. It goes without saying, but just as key as making the Titans turn the ball over three times in Baltimore territory was the fact that Joe Flacco kept good care of the football. Tennessee have been relentless defensively this season but the fact was that Flacco not only wasn’t sacked, he never turned the ball over. Flacco’s first negative yardage play on Saturday was his kneel down at the end of the game which is magnificent against the Titans, and a lot of that can be put down to offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who has done a marvelous job with Flacco this season. I actually thought that Cameron was almost too conservative with Flacco, but no negative plays was obviously the game plan and it worked to perfection.
The sure fire way that the Ravens would kill themselves in this game is by being too aggressive on thid and long. Throwing short and hoping for yards after the catch or even running the ball on 3rd and long will be the most sensible option. Santonio Holmes may have returned a punt for a touchdown against San Diego, but Holmes can often be too aggressive and may open up turnover opportunities.
But providing they are willing to punt the ball instead of taking too many chances they turn it over to…
2. Defense
Pittsburgh may have the best statstical defense in the league, but the Ravens defense can win games almost without their offense. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense will shut you down. The Baltimore Ravens defense will make you make a mistake and punish you for it. Pittsburgh’s offense, which has been much maligned this season, had a very good day against the San Diego Chargers. However the Chargers defense failed in two areas of the game that Baltimore simply won’t against Pittsburgh. The Chargers allowed Willie Parker to run wild and they failed to get any pass rush going. Baltimore haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher in almost three seasons, and this week won’t be any different. Simply put, Parker will have to carry the ball 40-45 times to get 100 yards. In terms of pass rush, you don’t have to worry about what Baltimore can do. Roethlisberger will hold onto the ball too long, and while he can make great things happen, it will give the Ravens opportunities to make plays. Ben just won’t throw the ball away when he really should. Against the Chargers he was ok as his offensive line did a terrific job. Roethlisberger’s throw to Hines Ward for 40 yards that set up Willie Parker’s touchdown run at the end of the first half was probably the best throw I’ve seen all season and it all came about because he could stand in the pocket and throw comfortably.
Going back to San Diego, Ron Rivera’s defense has been impressive since he was installed as defensive coordinator in San Diego, but they couldn’t get off the field on Sunday, and when they allowed two long back to back drives on them in the 3rd quarter (obviously not helped by Rivers INT and Weddle’s header) the game was over. Baltimore simply cannot allow this to happen. Of course, the main reason that San Diego couldn’t get off the field was because they simply could not stop the run and were dominated at the line of scrimmage.
As you can tell, I think this is going to end up as a bit of a stalemate for long periods of the game, but the key area where Baltimore not only have to win, but will win is…
1. The turnover battle
The turnover battle is where games in the playoffs this year have been won and lost. Arizona forced Jake Delhomme into some big mistakes that allowed them to blow out the Panthers. The Steelers weren’t containing San Diego’s offense too well until the 3rd quarter when two huge turnovers helped them put the game out of reach. And of course, 3 huge turnovers in plus territory by Tennessee allowed the Ravens to march down the field and kick a field goal to knock off the Titans at LP Field. The Ravens defense can do three key things better than almost every other defense in the league. They can shut down your running game, they can keep you out of the endzone when you get into plus territory, and they can create turnovers at an alarming rate.
While Pittsburgh can do all these things, the key to Baltimore’s offensive efficiency is that they don’t give you the cheap turnvover. If Baltimore are in 3rd and long, they will be conservative. If the Steelers are in 3rd and long, they’ll try to pick up the first down, andf that’s where Rex Ryan’s defense can really take control of this game. Baltimore have created an amazing 8 turnovers in their two games. The Miami Dolphins set an NFL record for fewest turnovers in a 16 game regular season, and in their first playoff game they picked off Chad Pennington 4 times and made Patrick Cobbs put the ball on the floor. Against the Titans they picked off Collins once and forced LenDale White and Alge Crumpler into huge fumbles deep in Baltimore territory. To force 8 turnovers in 2 games agaisnt conservative offenses is incredible. The Steelers on the other hand forced 2 turnovers against an expansive Chargers offense on Sunday. One was the tipped INT, and the other was the punt that hit Eric Weddle on the head.
This is where I think Baltimore wins the game on Sunday. Look for Baltimore to turn the ball over once AT THE MOST while I think the Ravens defense can get to Roethlisberger a couple of times. He’ll likely force the ball where it shouldn’t be, and may even put on on the floor. I’ll take Baltimore to win this game 17-10, with a defensive touchdown and advance to the Super Bowl, where they’ll likely face the Philadelphia Eagles.
No-one should be taking the Cardinals lightly, but the best way to beat them is to get pressure on Warner, and the Eagles can do that. Trent Cole destroyed Arizona last time and look for him to do the same again. What amazed me most on Saturday night in Carolina was their defenses reluctance to pressure Warner. So often they sent 4 and dropped 7 and gave Warner all day to throw. It was almost as if they thought Julius Peppers could do it on his own. If they’d brought more pressure, Peppers would have likely killed Warner. Philadelphia will bring pressure early and often and could make Arizona one dimensional early. If that happens the Eagles should be going to Tampa, which I certainly wouldn’t have predicted when I was killing Andy Reid on here after the tie. Reid deserves a lot of credit for resurrecting this team by balancing the offense, and with the defense playing lights out football, they’re in with a great chance.
Football Diner Trivia Question
After the recent death of ‘Slingin Sammy Baugh, those who were not familiar with his body of work quickly learned of his prowess both throwing the ball and playing defensive back. But since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 who is the only player to both intercept a pass on defense AND throw an interception on offense in the same game?
Random Thoughts
I love to see young guys gets the chance to be Head Coaches in the NFL. It’s very easy to go on the coaching carousel and recycle someone from somewhere else. And while I’m not criticising picking up someone elses cast offs as Eric Mangini will likely do well in Cleveland, but it’s always refreshing to see guys like Josh McDaniels get the nod. McDaniels, at 32 years old, will be younger than some of his playoffs, but like firing Shanahan was a risk, this will be a risk too. However, if it does work out for the Denver Broncos, they could have their new Head Coach for as long as Shanahan was at the helm. The only surprise was that Denver didn’t look for a defensive coach after the hopeless play from their defense in 2008. It seems that McDaniels will bring in Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator. People will have a negative view on Nolan, but most of the issues pointed at him are all from his stint as a Head Coach with San Francisco. Nolan was a very good coordinator with the Giants, Jets and Ravens, and will be a valuable member of the coaching staff if appointed. I have no idea how it will work out for the Broncos, but it’s always great to see a young guy get a chance at the very top.
Byron Leftwich already has one eye on next season despite the Steelers date with the Ravens on Sunday for a place in the Super Bowl. Leftwich is rumoured to be interested in playing quarterback for the Chicago Bears next season, and while he maybe shouldn’t be talking about taking Kyle Orton’s job, I reckon Leftwich would be a good fit for the Bears. After all, they insist on playing Devin Hester as a wide receiver, yet don’t have anyone who can hit him deep. Orton specialises more in underthrowing him and maybe drawing a flag. Leftwich still has a monster arm, and you may remember him stabilising the Steelers on Monday Night Football when Roethlisberger went down injured. Leftwich can obviously still be a starter in this league, and the Bears could do a lot worse than explore this possibility.
And Finally
It’s very difficult to say a bad word about a class act like Tony Dungy. The worst criticism levelled at him was maybe he was too nice. Perhaps there’s truth to that, but Dungy always proved that you don’t have to be a raving lunatic to make your team play hard and be successful. HIs reign in Indianapolis was as close as you can get to a dynasty when winning just one championship. Indianapolis have won 10 games every single season under Dungy which is a phenomenal feat in this era of football. He will also be remembered for popularising the Tampa 2 defensive scheme, although even in his modesty, when given credit for the scheme, Dungy replies “It’s basically what Pittsburgh did in the 70’s.”
The thing about Dungy’s reign in Tampa was that he was the first coach to really make the Buccs a force to be reckoned with. The team still hadn’t quite shaken off the joke tag of their -0-26 start as an NFL franchise, and Dungy was the first coach to have success. Perhaps he took the team as far as he could, but he laid fantastic groundwork that Jon Gruden came in and completed to give the franchise their first Super Bowl. Monte Kiffin stayed on after Dungy left as defensive coordinator and with talent such as John Lynch, Ronde Barber, Derrick Brooks and Warren Sapp on defense, he left them in fantastic shape. Dungy may have only won one Super Bowl title, but I cannot imagine him not being voted into the Hall of Fame. A great coach, a wonderful man, and the type of guy who fans of all 32 NFL teams will wish the best of luck for his future.
Football Diner Trivia Answer
The only person to intercept and pass and throw an interception in the same game was none other than…. TONY DUNGY! Many people don’t know Dungy was part of the Pittsburgh Steelers defense during the 70’s for 3 years where he mostly played as a safety. Against the Houston Oilers in 1977 he intercepted a pass on defense, and after Terry Bradshaw and backup Mike Kruczek went down with injuries, Dungy suited up under centre as the emergency third string quarterback. Dungy went 3/8 for 43 yards and 2 INT’s. Now if only Ben Roethlisberger and Byron Leftwich would go down with injuries on Sunday, Mike Tomlin might put in emergency third string quarterback Troy Polamalu! Okay, maybe not…
|
