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The Football Diner Big Top 5
Set To Surprise In ’09
by Jody Jamieson
30/7/2009
The beauty of American sports is how unpredictable it is at the best of times. In the past year we’ve had the Tampa Bay Rays rebounding from 10 years of futility to begin their existence to win the toughest division in baseball in their 11th season. The Rays then knocked off the Boston Red Sox again in the American League Championship Series to reach the World Series before going down 4-1 to the Philadelphia Phillies in the Fall Classic. In basketball the Eastern Conference was a two way shootout between Boston and Cleveland. That was until the Orlando Magic came and polished off the Celtics and Cavaliers in consecutive playoff rounds before being brushed aside by the Lakers in the Finals.
But if you’re of an NFL persuasion (and let’s face it, why else would you be here?) you may still struggle to believe that not only did the Arizona Cardinals win the NFC, but they were one defensive stop away from winning football’s biggest prize. The Cardinals were a team everyone dismissed in January as unwelcome guests when the postseason began. A nice win over Atlanta was followed by a massacre of Jake Delhomme in a game the Cards may still have won if their defense played the whole 60 minutes. Philadelphia were then dispatched of in a game the Cardinals foolishly allowed to get close before retaking control and the Cards had made into the Super Bowl in spectacular and improbable fashion.
Now as we count down the days to another 5 months of Sunday nights in front of the box, we will do what we do every single pre-season and dismiss about 75% of the league as no hopers for the big dance, and focus on the likely candidates and their chances of lifting the Vince Lombardi trophy in February. Thankfully after all these years I’m starting to learn my lesson, and in the inaugural Top Fives of the 2009 season, we take a closer look at the teams who may surprise everyone in 2009.
5. Buffalo Bills
 While I’m not particularly convinced that Dick Jauron is the man to take the Bills forward, I like their moves this summer. Say what you like about Terrell Owens, but the guy can still get it done, and providing he behaves (yeah I know..) he can be a positive influence. Trent Edwards is a quarterback I have a lot of faith in and with the addition of Owens and tight end Shawn Nelson from the Draft, their offense is certainly going in the right direction. Defensively I thought they were pretty good for the most part last season and the addition of Jairus Byrd in the secondary adds nice depth to a strong unit. First round pick Aaron Maybin really doesn’t thrill me, but he might be kinda useful as a situational pass rusher.
My major worry about Buffalo though is their offensive line and most specifically left tackle. Jason Peters didn’t have a stellar season in 2008 and was traded to Philadelphia. The problem is that they don’t have a viable option to replace Peters and protect Edwards. Langston Walker isn’t the answer. I do like their draft picks in centre Eric Wood and guard Andy Levitre, but I don’t see a viable left tackle on their roster.
Stranger things have happened, but if the line works out, Lynch stays healthy, and Owens doesn’t melt down then they can be good enough to compete in the tough AFC East.
4. New Orleans Saints
Now it’s tough to say that the Saints fly under the radar for one key reason. Everyone loves offense, and the Superdome is the place to be for offense. Unfortunately in the past, for all the points they can rack up, they tended to haemorrhage them all back due to their inability to put a competent defense on the field. Now Rome wasn’t built in a day, and it would be foolish to say the Saints have built a very good defense, but with the offense they have, all they need is competent on the other side of the ball.
Tracy Porter will be back from injury and in his rookie year he looked fabulous before going down with a dislocated wrist. Malcolm Jenkins can play corner in the NFL in my opinion, and the veteran addition of Darren Sharper at safety will help their secondary be useful in 2009. Up front there are no key additions, but Will Smith played hurt and Charles Grant is due back from his injuries. If they are 100%, then it will make a difference.
As I said, their defense still isn’t going to be great. But it’ll likely be reasonable in 2008, and if Drew Brees and the offense can be as deadly this year, then reasonable is more than enough.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
 Part of me really grudges backing the dysfunctional Bengals to do something good, but I love what they have done this offseason and really believe they can be a playoff team this year. 2008 was a train wreck from the moment Carson Palmer went down injured, but what was lost on most people was the fact that defensively Cincy were very sound in 2008. Now to say I love everything they did in the offseason would be a lie. Signing Roy Williams at safety is a risk worth taking, but I have my doubts. Same with Tank Johnson. Obviously the loss of TJ Houshmandzadeh is going to sting but the signing of Laverneus Coles to replace him is a good one and I loved their draft weekend.
Andre Smith is a risk, but he has huge upside. Rey Maualuga was a steal in the second. Michael Johnson was a nice pickup and tight end Chase Coffman can give them a vertical tight end threat that they haven’t had in a long time. To get center Jonathan Luigs in the fourth round was another steal and the Bengals can have great impact from their first round picks from the get go.
If the Bengals can be a cohesive unit in 2009 they have the talent to make the playoffs.
2. Houston Texans
I thought the Texans were ready for a run last year but they just didn’t click on defense like I expected, and the offense committed far too many turnovers. Matt Schaub has shown signs of being a solid quarterback, but injuries derailed his season last year. Schaub when healthy isn’t the type to see his play riddled with turnovers, and with Sage Rosenfels shipped off to Minnesota then he won’t be the one causing all the trouble if Schaub goes down again. Unfortunately, Rex Grossman is now the backup. Grossman will have his moments, but he’s unreliable, and they really need Schaub to stay healthy.
Offensively I expect Houston to be really good this year. Slaton had a great rookie year. Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels are excellent receivers, and their line is much improved since the days of the David Carr sack-a-thon. However their key issue on defense still hasn’t been properly addressed. Houston only added second day Draft picks to their secondary which isn’t likely to help it improve from 2008. It didn’t help last year that only Mario Williams was getting to the quarterback, but I do love what they’ve done to their front seven to the point I think it can cover up their deficiencies in the defensive backfield. Brian Cushing and Connor Barwin can contribute in the rookie seasons, and the addition of defensive end Antonio Smith is a real under the radar move that can be massive for the Texans as they look for their first playoff campaign in franchise history.
Houston being one of the wildcard teams isn’t beyond the realms of possibility, but I believe they have a good chance to win the division. They finally have enough talent to compete with Indianapolis and Tennessee. Look out for the AFC South to be the best division in football in 2009.
1. San Francisco 49ers
 History dictates that the Arizona Cardinals aren’t going to be the Cinderella story they were in 2008. Over the last few years, the Super Bowl runner up has had a real let down the next season, and the Cards don’t really strike me as a team who is going to buck that trend. Someone is going to have to step up and take perhaps the weakest division in the NFL right now. Mike Singletary has an opportunity to be a hero in the Bay Area by taking the Niners to the NFC West crown.
I hope Shaun Hill gets the nod in 2009. He has his obvious limitations, but he’s a better option than Alex Smith and Hill led the Niners to a 5-3 record last year in games he started. Hill may not be great, and he may be known around the league as the stereotypical “game manager” but all he does is win. Offensively the Niners have a lot of interesting talent. Michael Crabtree is an undoubted talent, but I’ll get to him later. Vernon Davis played better after being slated by Singletary midway through last season and Frank Gore will be a big factor in 2009.
Defensively the team had a new attitude down the stretch and after JT O’Sullivan was benched and stopped giving the opposition short fields, the defense could flex their muscles. In 2009 I like their ability to stop the run, but if I have a worry about them defensively, it’s their ability to get to the passer. Patrick Willis is one of the most dynamic defensive players in the NFL, but he can only do so much. If the Niners can stop the run, they can sell out on the pass to get extra pressure and be effective.
It’s unfair to look at their overall record in 2008 to judge this team as they sucked under Mike Nolan and were very good under Singletary. If they can keep the momentum going, they can finish 10-6, which should be enough to win that division.
Random Thoughts
Two problems I have with the Draft process. First one is the new setup for 2010. Three nights of the Draft couldn’t possibly be more unnecessary. But that’s another discussion for later. The problem I have right now is the rookie salary business. Nothing new obviously, but once again it is rearing its ugly head in a big way thanks to Michael Crabtree and his agent. Crabtree wants to be paid like a Top 3 pick but there’s a slight problem with that. The guy was the #10 overall pick and not even the first receiver selected (thanks in part to Oakland’s futility) and he’s currently holding up the market. Right now the majority of the first round remains unsigned due to the market not having been set. If the majority of the first round players miss the first week or two of camp, don’t be surprised to find this class has little impact in 2009. I’m sick of banging the same drum over and over again, but a rookie salary cap has to be implemented before next year to stop this stupid process happening again.
So Favre is staying retired? I assume it’s ok for me to be cynical about this till at least September…
And Finally…
I was talking with Eamon Hegarty, a friend of mine and a regular on the nfluk.com forums, about Michael Vick and it got me thinking about the Wildcat formation. Now I loved the formation when the Dolphins used it to destroy New England in Week 3 last year, but as with most gimmicks, coaching is too good in the NFL and it was rendered fairly useless fairly quickly for the most part. Only Miami and Kansas City kept it fresh and effective down the stretch. Most other teams couldn’t use it properly because they didn’t seem to understand why it was effective in the first place, which brings me on to Vick.
Just because Vick is a good fit for the Wildcat doesn’t mean he will make it back on the field as a good Wildcat quarterback. Teams are ready for it now and I just can’t believe it’s going to be that useful in 2009. And even if it is, Miami have Pat White and Kansas City have a new coaching staff, so where is Vick going to fit? It’s tough to say right now. The Wildcat formation may have to stick around long enough to be his saviour and to get him back to his best if he’s got any shot of coming back as a starting quarterback in the NFL. I remain unconvinced that it will be a factor in 2009, and it might make Vick’s job even tougher.
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