The Football Diner Big Top 5
NFL Draft Prospects
by Jody Jamieson
7/1/2010
There are twenty NFL fan bases looking towards the future right now. The immediate future for these teams is free agency, but with no real progress currently being made with the Collective Bargaining Agreement, everything is completely up in the air. As always, your faithful Diner is on the case of the NFL Draft already. The big boards are posted all over the place from ESPN to nfluk.com, and everyone has an opinion.
Today, Top Fives makes a double comeback as Im going to look at who I believe are currently the most overrated and underrated players available in the Draft according to what Ive seen thus far.
Overrated
5. Kam Chancellor, S, Virginia Tech
Ill be honest. I had really high hopes for Chancellor coming into the season. I still like him in run support (but Ill come back to that) and he does a good job in the box, but in coverage I thought he had a few problems he could adjust. He has somehow gone from being slightly below average in coverage to a complete abomination. He gets caught square as receivers run past him, and tends to completely sell out on a double move. He gets caught looking at the ball rather than the man and gave up a stupid amount of big plays in 2009.
I mentioned I liked Chancellor in run support, and hes done a decent job in the box. The problem is when hes playing back and a ball carrier is in the open field, he struggles. He completely over pursues and misses tackles he should easily make. His game tape from the Alabama game is disastrous. He misses tackles constantly and got lucky as a few deep balls fell incomplete with Chancellor a good few yards behind the receiver. He was a solid second rounder before the season began, but I worry that hes falling into the 5th or 6th round. His issues with tackling in the open field may make him a special teams liability and compromise his value even further.
4. Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati
Not everyone is overrating him horribly, but some well respected people think hes a genuine first rounder. Other than the fact hes kinda slow, has below average hands, makes poor adjustments to the ball, runs poor routes and is scared of being hit, I suppose hes great. Hes benefitted from having an accurate quarterback in Tony Pike, but hasnt really made the most of it.
Gilyard had some impressive games in college, but he blew hot and cold so often that I cant see him being able to have an impact in the NFL. Hes a 4th rounder at best.
3. Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas
Kindle has interesting potential as a project, but I dont want to take a project player in the first round that Im not completely set on where hes going to play. He projects reasonably to play outside linebacker in both the 3-4 and 4-3 but is not an ideal fit for either system. He could also fit as a 4-3 defensive end, but again isnt a great fit. The only player listed as a tweener who had a successful rookie year in 2009 was Brian Orakpo, and even then he was such a good fit to play DE in a 4-3 that he wasnt a true tweener.
Ability wise I think Kindle is good but completely unpolished. First he is a rare finesse player with a very limited array of pass rush moves. He likes to bull rush undersized linemen in college, but how many undersized linemen are there in the NFL? Other than that he uses his speed to get to the quarterback which is all well and good against the Jeff Backuss of the world, but how does that become useful against linemen with a good first step? I dont see enough technical ability to give him a first round grade and I feel he grades out realistically as a mid to late second rounder.
2. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
 Where do I start with McCoy? Hed project well as a Kyle Orton style quarterback but he somehow has a weaker arm, is more inaccurate, and has never made a read in his life. McCoy translates to fit well into no NFL offenses and has such a limited upside that he has almost no chance of achieving anything in the pros. If I did a Top 200 Big Board, Id most likely leave him off.
Running quarterbacks have a high bust rate in the NFL as it is. Running quarterbacks like McCoy who dont possess excellent speed or great athleticism are destined to fail. Ive been racking my brains for about a year now trying to find a reasonable player comparison for McCoy, but I still cant think of anyone who reminds me of him. Players who remind you of Colt McCoy tend not to play much in the league.
Ill have a scouting report up for McCoy in a couple of weeks time. Needless to say, its not going to be complimentary. I have nothing against McCoy and I hope Im majorly wrong as hes the type of kid who is easy to root for. Hes a born winner and a leader, but I cannot see how his excellent intangibles will cancel out his poor football skills.
1. Taylor Mays, S, USC
It always makes me laugh that people slate Al Davis for his height/weight/speed obsession and then rate Taylor Mays as a top tier prospect. Mays has no ball skills, makes poor decisions and cant tackle properly. He has a shot to be an average strong safety in the NFL, but he makes so many bad decisions that hes got bust written all over him. When he gets to the NFL Mays will make many highlight reels with the big hits, but Im not convinced he really knows how to use his talents properly.
Height/weight/speed is obviously important at any level in football, but decision making/instincts/football IQ is more important and Mays has none of these. He has poor gap discipline when in run support and will give up big plays in both the running and passing game. Mays loses track of balls in the air he should be intercepting and instead decides to try and destroy the would-be receiver.
In the end Mays has too many deficiencies to hide to justify him being a first round pick. Id never pick a safety in the first round knowing Im going to have to really consider taking him out on third down and playing him exclusively in the box because I dont trust him in coverage. Im more uncomfortable with this considering I wouldnt trust him to make the correct decisions in run support.
Underrated
5. Montario Hardesty, RB, Tennessee
 Its very understandable that Hardesty is ranked as a mid-round prospect. He only really made an impact in his senior year as he struggled to stay healthy. He doesnt have great speed or project as a particularly powerful runner. What I really like about Hardesty is his intelligence and his ability to be useful in all facets of the game. Hes a smart runner who identifies the hole quickly and hits it. Hes a good receiver with reliable hands and is reliable as a blocker.
There is nothing flashy about this player, but Im very confident he has the ability to become a solid NFL running back. Guys like Fred Jackson and Mike Bell did a good job in 2009 by doing all the little things well. Hardesty is a better talent than both of these guys, but his durability will determine how successful he will be on Sundays.
4. Rusty Smith, QB, Florida Atlantic
Smith is strictly a project, but I love his ability to be a very solid backup in the NFL with the chance to be a reasonable starter if he gets the chance. He has a good strong NFL arm and has played under centre in a pro style offense at FAU. Despite playing in the Sun Belt, FAU has played some strong competition over the past two years and Smith didnt disgrace himself. Ultimately he never had the team to pick up wins in these games, but he always performed well. His completion percentage is a worry, but I think hes very coachable.
Smith has the ideal size for a quarterback and has reasonable feet in the pocket. Hes not going to rush for many first downs, but isnt a statue in the pocket either. Smith likely goes in the 6th or 7th round, but I believe Smith has the best chance to make an impact of all the late round quarterbacks.
3. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida
Hernandez somehow flew under the radar despite being a favoured go to guy of Tim Tebow at Florida. I like Hernandez as a more NFL ready all round tight end than Jermaine Gresham right now. Gresham is a better vertical threat, but Hernandez is by far the more superior blocker. The thing that will get Gresham drafted higher is he has the frame to be coached as a reliable blocker. Dont sleep on Hernandez though. This is a weak year for tight ends, but Hernandez is a good prospect with a chance to be a good starter.
2. Kyle Wilson, DB, Boise State
Many people see Joe Haden as a Top 10 cornerback and then project a real drop off after that. Over the past few days Ive seen a lot of Wilson and really like what I see. Hes played an excellent corner in 2009, but in the Fiesta Bowl on January 4th Wilson played cornerback and safety and was brilliant wherever he was lined up. Overall I dont like his ability to be a safety in the pros as hes not the best tackler and is a little undersized, but hes a marvellous cover corner with excellent speed who could be an Asante Samuel type ball hawk in the NFL.
1. Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
Some have him down as a borderline first round pick, but I believe hes a better prospect than Brandon Albert was who was taken 15th overall by Kansas City in 2008. Albert had the advantage of being able to play left tackle (he only played left guard at Virginia because of Eugene Monroe) while Iupati will only play guard, but hes got amazing talent and the upside to be considered in the Top 15. Many people who swear by the Combine will rank him down as hell likely run a bad 40 time, but his first step is deceptively quick and his footwork is phenomenal. He is very reliable as a pass protector and a run blocker. Iupati will need to refine his techniques a little, but overall hes a marvellous prospect who I dont think will be taken in the first round, but will be an absolute steal in the second.
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