NCAA Scouting 2011 Draft Review – AFC East by Paul Emery May 11th 2011
Can the Jets find some immediate help to push them to the promised land?
Buffalo Bills
1. Marcell Dareus DT Alabama. The Bills would have loved Von Miller as they lacked a pass rush but Denver with a huge need at DT moved away from Dareus and took the Texas A&M; man, so the Bills were left with somewhat of a dilemma. They ignored Blaine Gabbert and instead went for Dareus. From his combine numbers, Dareus fits well at the five technique position in a one gap 3-4 defense and with the Bills looking to run some 4-3 looks as well, Dareus can also play the three technique. However, from tape I didn’t always see that quickness off the ball he’s hard to move, but too often he looked heavy and slow. I had him projected best at NT in a one gap 3-4 defense but the Bills already have two NT’s, so Dareus will have to play over the Tackle when they lineup in a three man front. I think most NFL Tackles will handle Dareus and unless the Bills abandon the 3-4 altogether I just don’t like the pick. For me Dareus just had too much bad tape Nick Fairley got slated for his inconsistency, but he never had bad games as Dareus did. I think the Bills have made a mistake here even if they go to a 4-3 defense they have similar players in Williams and Troup for me they should have gone Patrick Peterson or even Aldon Smith.
2. Aaron Williams CB Texas. Williams is another pick I’m not a big fan of. He wasn’t listed as a starter for Texas until Chykie Brown got hurt but with the Longhorns using a nickel much of the time, he saw a ton of time over the slot WR and then outside when Brown was hurt. When moved outside he struggled more particularly in the Oklahoma State game where I thought he had a poor game. The Bills could well be projecting him to Free Safety and with his ability to cover the slot man, this would perhaps be his best fit. There will be a learning curve for him at Safety and with a lockout it will make it tougher for him. I’m just not sold on Williams certainly not as much as Clemson’s Marcus Gilchrist and as such I’m not a fan of the pick.
3. Kelvin Sheppard ILB LSU. Now, this pick I do like. Sheppard is a very active and intense LB who has experience outside and in the middle LB spot in a 4-3 defense. He looks very athletic on tape, although his combine numbers weren’t anything special. He will take on blockers aggressively and shows ability to get off blocks. He projects to a 4-3 or 3-4 and will just make plays he should become the leader of this defense and I think he has Pro Bowl potential down the road.
4a. Da’Norris Searcy SS North Carolina. Searcy tested out very well at the Combine and it lifted his stock to the top of the fourth round. The problem for Searcy is those Combine numbers didn’t reflect in his play and indeed in the Virginia Tech game he had problems one on one with a TE deep. He did flash a burst to the ball at times and looked decent on kick-off returns, but I think the athletic numbers have caused him to be taken a round or two early.
4b. Chris Hairston OT Clemson. Hairston is a nice pick. He’s a probable Right Tackle as a pro, although his long arms could mean he can get away with it at the Left Tackle spot. In the Florida State game he was up against Brandon Jenkins who had a good season rushing the passer and I thought he looked comfortable against Jenkins edge speed. Hairston flashes some power he generally plays with knee bend and wins the leverage battle. I had him rated just below Jah Reid, so this is good enough value. Not a flashy pick, but a good one.
5. Johnny White RB North Carolina. White was having a good year when he suffered a broken clavicle which ended his season. He was producing as a receiver out of the backfield (24 receptions) as well as a runner. He’s not real tall, but is built well enough and certainly has the ability to break tackles. He’s not super fast (40 in the mid 4.5’s) and there’s always the question with this type of back (runs bigger than his size but size may mean he doesn’t stand up in the NFL) but I like Dion Lewis and in many ways White is a little similar and the value is solid.
6. Chris White ILB Mississippi State. I like this pick. White may lack the super long arms of his Bulldog team mate K.J. Wright, but he is a playmaker. He has experience outside and inside in the 4-3 he projects inside in the Bills 3-4. He’s not the best athlete in the world so the 3-4 will suit him. The main issue for me is that he has very short arms and will always struggle to get off blocks but he will hope Williams, Troup and Dareus can eat up double teams and keep him free. He certainly will star on special teams but I think he will offer more down the road.
7a. Justin Rogers CB Richmond. The Bills had some success with a small schooler in the sixth round last year (Arthur Moats) and Rogers was the first of two seventh round small schoolers. Rogers is an interesting pickup, I had him rated slightly higher than this, so I feel it is solid value. Rogers was a fine athlete at his level of competition and even played some WR as a senior in addition to returning kicks. He is only 180 lbs and didn’t run a blazing 40 time at the Combine, but he looked comfortable in his backpedal and I think has a chance to stick and contribute.
7b. Michael Jasper DT/OG Bethel (Tn). Jasper isn’t someone who was on my radar at all. He’s a big kid (6’4 394 lbs) who has experience at Guard and Defensive Tackle but one assumes the Bills see him as a space eating NT. He will need to drop his weight to push for a spot on either the roster or failing that practice squad.
Overall Average
The later rounds rescue things for the Bills as I don’t like either of their first two picks. However, Sheppard is a fine prospect and the third day had a couple of nice picks in Hairson and White. Justin Rogers has talent and could develop down the road, but the grade suffers because of the start.
Miami Dolphins
1. Mike Pouncey OG Florida. This pick wasn’t the biggest surprise, although some did think the Dolphins would go Mark Ingram. Pouncey’s twin brother made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, so the Dolphins feel they are getting pretty much the same player. Pouncey moved to Center to replace his brother as a senior, but struggled with shotgun snaps for much of the season. He’s therefore a better Guard prospect right now. I also felt his overall technique was better at Guard in 2009 as he tended to bend at the waist a bit too much at Center. Although his combine workout wasn’t the best, Pouncey did a fine job of pulling from the Center position and certainly watching him and then Stefen Wisniewski for Penn State playing at a very high level at the Bowl game made it a fun game to scout. This is a fairly safe pick but it will help Chad Henne as Pouncey will step into the starting lineup right away and give afford him the chance to step up in the pocket a little more.
2. Daniel Thomas RB Kansas State. Thomas is a converted QB who didn’t move to RB until arriving at Kansas State after Junior College, which is a plus as he doesn’t have a lot of miles on the clock. Kansas State really struggled to pass the ball in 2010 and Thomas was a huge part of the offense but even with teams knowing they were going to get a large dose of him each week, they still struggled to stop him. Thomas can also catch the ball and also had experience as a lead blocker in option looks. He also ran the wildcat and with his JC QB experience he is a threat to throw the ball so he really is the complete back! He’s a powerful runner who at times can run a little upright but all in all I think he’s a fine prospect and this is a great fit.
4. Edmond Gates WR Abilene Christian. Gates struggled in the post season with a hamstring injury and this seems to have lowered his stock to the point where the Dolphins could well have a real steal. Gates played at a lower level of competition and stood out there. He has legitimate sprinter speed (low 4.3’s at the Combine) and showed on tape the ability to put it into top gear and just pull away from coverage. He has soft hands and the only concern with him is level of competition he hurt his hamstring on the first day of Senior Bowl practice and it would seem without that validation, teams didn’t want to invest a super high pick on him. However, Gates was my #1 small school prospect (which is saying something as I really like Brandon Fusco) so you know I’m going to love the pick.
6. Charles Clay TE Tulsa. I was interested to see where Clay would be taken I had an inkling it would be fairly late in proceedings and that proved to be the case. The problem with Clay is that he doesn’t have a natural NFL position. He lacks TE size (just under 6’3, 245 lbs) but then Lance Kendricks is pretty much the same size and he was a second rounder. The issue with Clay is that he’s not a blocker Kendricks gives top effort, but Clay doesn’t look physical at all and that rules out FB for him. Clay has experience at RB but he’s a little too tall although perhaps could be used in some one back sets. So, really he’s a one dimensional HB that’s not the best thing to be and he suffered as a result. That being said, that one dimension is an exciting one. Clay was super productive as a receiver and looked very good he has soft hands and he’s a decent enough athlete. The Dolphins will have to figure out how to get him on the field without needing him to block if they can do that, I think he can help out. It’s a luxury type of pick but in the sixth round I can live with that.
7a. Frank Kearse NT Alabama A&M.; Kearse is a raw small schooler who right now is a two down space eater. He needs to get stronger (only 22 bench press reps at his Pro Day). He flashed some power, but at a lower level. With so many 3-4 teams in the NFL, I think this was worth the pick to prevent him from falling into the undrafted FA pool, where signing him would have proven more difficult.
7b. Jimmy Wilson CB Montana. Wilson has one of the most interesting stories this year. He spent two years in jail after being accused of murder but was eventually acquitted. He was then granted eligibility by the NCAA and was able to return for his senior year at Montana. His play and pro day performance was enough for the Dolphins to draft him. With a 40 time in the low 4.5’s he could be tried at Safety.
Overall – Good
This isn’t a huge class, but the top 4 picks can all contribute as rookies so it’s a good class. Charles Clay is the wildcard of the four as the Dolphins will have to think about how and when to use him but he is a talented receiver. Pouncey and Thomas are two very solid picks and are both nice fits in Miami. Gates is a burner who could be one of the better third day picks. The two seventh rounders are projections, but both do have some talent.
New England Patriots
1. Nate Solder OT Colorado. With Matt Light a free agent and perhaps not returning, the Patriots decided to go for a Tackle with their first pick. Solder has a ton of upside as he’s a very gifted athlete for a big man. Technique wise though he needs a ton of work. He’s 6’8 and doesn’t always bend so leverage becomes an issue. Part of that problem is that when setting up in pass protection, at times he uses a backpedal as opposed to the correct kick/slide technique. Solder isn’t naturally flexible and will always have to work on bending but it could be his height works against him and he’s going to struggle as he’s too tall. He needs to get stronger (only 21 bench press reps at the Combine) and although he does have upside because of his athletic ability I don’t know if he can step in right away and start. Perhaps the Patriots will start him out on the right side. I’m not really sold on the value in the current labour situation as he clearly needs work and right now can’t receive the coaching he needs.
2a. Ras-I Dowling CB Virginia. Dowling saw very little playing time as a senior, bothered by a variety of injuries. First year Virginia coach Mike London seemed to question Dowling’s toughness and was openly frustrated that he didn’t play through the pain barrier. Former Virginia coach Al Groh though was a former Belichick assistant so you can bet the Patriots will have spoken at length to Groh and clearly were given the thumbs up and thus the pick was made. When healthy I think Dowling has top 15 talent even though one of his starts this year was against Georgia Tech (who only threw the ball 6 times all game!), that talent was there for all to see. The Steelers were reportedly trying to trade up to get him, but I think they missed a trick at the back end of the first round as this kid has the talent to be special and this is one of my favourite second round picks.
2b. Shane Vereen RB California. Vereen is an interesting back. He had very few long runs this past year and the knock on him pre-Combine was that he wasn’t fast enough. However, at the Combine he ran his 40 in the high 4.4’s so that wasn’t the issue. I was also expecting his shuttle time to be super quick, but it was only average as he looks good changing directions. So the Combine didn’t match tape and that always concerns me. He can help as a receiver and kick returner but perhaps the issue is his lack of vision. I see him as a one cut and go type as the Patriots use elements of the zone blocking scheme he fits well.
3a. Stevan Ridley RB LSU. Ridley is another zone blocking one cut and go type. I personally didn’t have him rated quite this high, so I’m not sold on the value. He’s bigger and slower than Vereen but unlike the Cal man only has one year of production. Although he did have a productive year, I didn’t come away impressed with him. He doesn’t run away from anyone and didn’t look as explosive as some other bigger backs like Bilal Powell (Jets round 4). He has very little production as a receiver, so will have to push for the power role.
3b. Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas. Talent wise this pick is a huge steal. There is no question that Mallett has a superb arm and can make some special throws and indeed on that basis alone he’s the best QB in this class. However, he struggled making decisions particularly when under pressure and against the three best and complex defenses he saw all year (LSU, Alabama and Ohio State) he struggled with interceptions including late in the Sugar Bowl where he didn’t read a zone blitz and threw a pick to the DE who dropped into coverage. He also has off the field concerns, it would appear mainly stemming from his time at Michigan but he was arrested for public intoxication while at Arkansas. This is a nice situation for Mallett he will be under no pressure, so can sit and see how Tom Brady rolls. It does seem big armed pocket QB’s struggle in the NFL but if he can work hard to understand defenses and thus avoid the costly mistakes, then he’ll carry on where Brady left off. Of course, should he see some time as a backup and impress he’ll have major trade value down the road. All in all risk met reward for me a lot earlier than this and I like the pick.
5a. Marcus Cannon OT TCU. Cannon had a bizarre build up to the Draft, culminating in some bad news which saw his stock take a big hit. A couple of weeks prior to the Draft, it was reported that Cannon had testicular cancer but the news had been kept secret so as not to hurt his draft stock. While that report proved to be false in tests after this Cannon found out he has non-Hodgkins lymphoma. The good news though is that it’s treatable and the success rate is 90% for this form of cancer. I’m sure everyone will wish him well. Looking at purely the football side of things, the Steelers were apparently considering Cannon in the first round. I had him as a fourth/firth round talent. I love power Tackles but like Marcus Gilbert, I just didn’t see enough from Cannon. He looked too heavy and really struggled against edge speed. I don’t see him as a Guard as he’s too upright and will struggle for leverage. He’s therefore a Right Tackle only and I didn’t see him as talented as Jah Reid. So the value for me here is about right but obviously the reason he was here at this point was the cancer. He’ll be redshirted in 2011 and fingers crossed he can push for a roster spot in 2012.
5b. Lee Smith TE Marshall. The Patriots love to use multiple TE formations and Smith gives them a fine option as a blocker and short range/red zone target. Smith was the best blocker in the TE class this year but with a 40 time in the mid 4.9’s at the Combine, it’s clear athletically he is limited. He does have very soft hands and can still offer as a reliable safety valve but separation will always be a question. However, this is a nice fit and he should get some playing time right away.
6. Markell Carter OLB Central Arkansas. The Patriots decided to ignore their pass rush need in the early rounds and I’m OK with that as there weren’t many great 3-4 OLB fits this year and better not to force with free agency still to happen. Carter is an interesting prospect. He’s a college DE who showed excellent pass rushing ability at a lower level. When I scouted Kevin Hughes of Southeastern Louisiana (who should receive some interest as an undrafted free agent), Carter gave him major problems. I see him very much like Arthur Moats (Bills) coming out of James Madison last year has talent and I think he can develop into something.
7. Malcolm Williams DB TCU. The Patriots went back to TCU and drafted Williams a highly regarded Junior college transfer who didn’t start for TCU. He’s been drafted solely for special teams, where he carved out a niche role with the Horned Frogs. I’m all for special teams, but I’d like to see someone who can maybe develop outside of that and while Williams may, he had little chance to show it in college.
Overall Good
This is a tough one to rate as it’s a mixed bag. I’m not super high on either of the Tackles and although Solder is very athletic, I question his ability to bend and that might always limit him. Dowling and Mallett are great picks. I thought it was a little too early for Ridley but Vereen was fun to watch and is a good pick. Smith and Carter are two good picks on the third day with Williams being more of a flyer. On balance, I’ll give it a good grade.
New York Jets
1. Muhammed Wilkerson DT Temple. Wilkerson was my top rated DT and is a fantastic fit in the Jets hybrid defense. Wilkerson is able to play at the three or five technique positions and offers the versatility to produce in a two gap or one gap system. There are very few prospects who have the length to two gap even fewer who demonstrate the ability to stack and shed, but Wilkerson is one of them. He was completely dominant in the MAC and the only knock on him I have is that level of competition wasn’t the best. However, he could only produce against what was in front of him and he did so consistently. Wilkerson will play the DT position for the Jets which Haloti Ngata played in Baltimore for Coach Ryan and indeed I haven’t liked a big DT so much since Ngata came out of Oregon, so this pick ticks every box.
3. Kenrick Ellis DT Hampton. Having taken one prospect who can two gap the Jets then took another in Ellis in the third round. Talent wise Ellis should have been long gone. However, Ellis has some issues off the field mainly pertaining to his dismissal from South Carolina where it was reported he failed multiple drugs tests. Crucially though for his draft stock he wasn’t completely clean at Hampton where he was arrested for assault a year ago. This seems to have taken him off some boards, but clearly the Jets were comfortable with the risk/reward at this stage. Ellis is perhaps a little tall for a NT and indeed doesn’t naturally bend. When he plays lower he tends to be bent at the waist and loses balance although he was able to make some plays from the ground, this clearly isn’t the way forward. He has a good initial quickness to offer help if he’s called to one gap. Ultimately, I think he’ll be a better five technique than NT because he plays so high but he does have talent. The word was in the non TV games he didn’t play as well but Rex Ryan is a wonderful motivator and should be able to light a fire under Ellis. There is risk with the pick, but needing a NT there weren’t a whole bunch of options, so I can understand the pick. In a 3-4 look, I think he’s very much like Alan Branch who struggled at NT but has found a home at the five technique position. With the Jets running a hybrid defense though, it makes it a better fit. He certainly adds bulk to the line and has the athletic ability to penetrate and cause problems a remarkable thing at 346 lbs.
4. Bilal Powell RB Louisville. Powell had a fine Senior year under a new coaching staff at Louisville and from nowhere a year ago, became a fourth round pick. On tape Powell’s speed looked deceptive he didn’t appear to be moving real fast, but would eat up yards pretty quickly. He makes sharp cuts and has a nice spin move as shown on his highlight reel 85 yard TD run against Cincinnati, which was one of the best plays I saw all last season (and I saw a ton of them!). He does carry the concern that he was only a one year wonder but on balance I think this is about the right spot for him value wise it’s now just a case of how he will fit into a crowded backfield.
5. Jeremy Kerley WR TCU. Kerley is a diminutive receiver who will push for time in the slot and also help in the return game. He’s not the fastest in a straight line as evidenced by his mid 4.5’s 40 time but he is very quick and will make people miss (he had the third best shuttle time at the Combine in the WR group). He showed he can make the big play at big times at TCU, which isn’t something you can measure. His size/speed saw him drop to the fifth round region but the slot receiver is so valuable these days in the modern NFL, that I think this is very good value and I would expect Kerley to help as a rookie.
7a. Greg McElroy QB Alabama. McElroy is what he is and carries limited upside. He’s a game manager who lacks a top arm. He guided Alabama to a National Championship in 2009 and there is always value in a winner but when he had to win games in 2010, he struggled and indeed his accuracy was off in those games. He is smart enough to learn an NFL offense, but I don’t know if he’s ever going to be more than a third stringer.
7b. Scotty McKnight WR Colorado. Jets QB Mark Sanchez was the QB for McKnight at his Pro Day they are high school team mates. From tape and athletic numbers alone, I think there were better options available. McKnight is only 182 lbs but only ran his 40 in the high 4.4’s but like Austin Pettis, did have a very good shuttle time so can use his quickness to get open. He had a tough time in Colorado with a tough QB situation but over his career still had decent production. His senior year he was down considerably in production and I didn’t think it would be enough to see him drafted, but the chemistry he has with Sanchez presumably gave him the edge of other a number of options the Jets had.
Overall Above Average
The Jets managed to selected two of the three prospects (the other being Cameron Heyward Steelers) who displayed natural two gap technique so even with young players on their defensive front, they can still employ some two gap base defenses, should they so desire. They needed a NT and saw Ellis as the fit, but I see so much of Alan Branch in his play, I think he’ll end up over a Tackle down the road, so I don’t know if he actually fits the need there. Powell has talent, but only produced for one year if they can get him as motivated as he was as a senior he could help down the road. Kerley lacks size, but makes plays and will help in the return game. The two seventh rounders stop this from being rated any higher McElroy is limited and although McKnight didn’t have a great QB situation at Colorado, I think there were better options still available although the chemistry he has with Sanchez may help him.
2a. Ras-I Dowling CB Virginia. Dowling saw very little playing time as a senior, bothered by a variety of injuries. First year Virginia coach Mike London seemed to question Dowling’s toughness and was openly frustrated that he didn’t play through the pain barrier. Former Virginia coach Al Groh though was a former Belichick assistant so you can bet the Patriots will have spoken at length to Groh and clearly were given the thumbs up and thus the pick was made. When healthy I think Dowling has top 15 talent even though one of his starts this year was against Georgia Tech (who only threw the ball 6 times all game!), that talent was there for all to see. The Steelers were reportedly trying to trade up to get him, but I think they missed a trick at the back end of the first round as this kid has the talent to be special and this is one of my favourite second round picks.
