NCAA Scouting 2011 Draft Review – AFC South by Paul Emery May 7th 2011
This division is all about catching the Colts can the other three teams bring in enough talent to push Manning and company?
Houston Texans
1. J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin. Watt is a self made player who transferred from Central Michigan where he played TE walked on and then started for two years before declaring a year early for the NFL Draft. He’s got a frame that’s perfect for the five technique position and has the athletic ability to make him perfectly suited to Wade Phillips one gap 3-4 defense. His Combine numbers were through the roof and pushed him up to the top half of the round. I think this is solid value and a fantastic fit Watt should be pushing for the Pro Bowl early in his career.
2a. Brooks Reed OLB Arizona. Reed is another who had a fine Combine to push him up. He had the fastest 10 yard split in the DE group which is the number teams look at. From tape I had him as a borderline 3rd/4th round talent so this is somewhat of an upside pick. Reed did show some pass rush ability he beat Tyron Smith (Dallas 1st round) for a sack in the USC game but he didn’t look a dominant prospect. He will also need to learn to stand up at OLB but the system will see him get after the QB primarily. Overall, I’m not the biggest fan of the pick but do understand there weren’t a great deal of options this year, so this was somewhat of a forced need pick as they need someone opposite Connor Barwin.
2b. Brandon Harris CB Miami (Fl.). Harris was viewed as a first round pick by many, but I am not as high on him and indeed I think this might be about right in this CB class. Harris is a very physical CB and in many ways is similar to where last years first round pick Kareem Jackson was coming out of college. Both were very physical college CB’s and of course in the NFL there’s the 5 yard contact rule so it’s a case of completely changing the way they play the game. Jackson will actually be a very good resource for Harris as he will have learnt some tough lessons as a rookie and he can guide Harris. If he can overcome the 5 yard contact rule issue that I think he will have then he should be a solid pro but he will have to change the way he plays the game and as such there is risk in this pick as there was with Jackson last year.
4. Rashad Carmichael CB Virginia Tech. Carmichael is very experienced in Tech’s zone system he’s not the fastest in the world, but he has the knack of being able to close on the ball quickly so can recover if beaten by a double move. Carmichael will push for time as a nickel back and that could be his role at the next level with his limitations of size and speed. The value here is sound though and in the same division as the Colts, it’s always good to have options at CB.
5a. Shiloh Keo SS Idaho. Keo ran in the mid 4.7’s at the Combine, so was never going to be a high pick. I found his play on tape to be less than convincing, so I’m not the biggest fan of this pick. There have also been some negatives flying around regarding his character, but it doesn’t appear to have concerned Houston. Keo was very productive in college he played centre field and made some highlight reel big hits but did miss too many tackles and take poor angles for my liking.
5b. T.J. Yates QB North Carolina. In this poor QB class, right from pick 1 to this region we have QB’s overdrafted and wanting a developmental type the Texans have done one in Yates. Around the mid season mark Yates was getting some positive press, but then came the Clemson game and after a horrible game and 4 interceptions his stock starting heading south again. Accuracy wise I don’t think he’s good enough and for me there are far better options available in a poor class unless you have a major need, it’s best to steer clear and I think the Texans may rue this pick down the road.
7a. Derek Newton OT Arkansas State. Back on a positive footing in the seventh round, the Texans took an interesting Tackle prospect. Newton projects well to the Texans zone blocking scheme he’s very athletic and does a good job of squaring up in the run game. He’s a finesse type player who needs to get stronger but I have a good feeling about this kid and really like the fit and pick.
7b. Cheta Ozougwu OLB Rice. Ozougwu is this years Mr Irrelevant the college DE will aim to make the conversion to OLB in Wade Phillips 3-4. He has some quickness off the edge and his 10 yard split time at the Combine was well above average. I didn’t think that quite showed on tape, but he does look to have some ability as a pass rusher and is worth a look here.
Overall Average
These grades are all subjective now some will see great value in Reed and Harris, but even though both were talked about as potential first rounders, I never rated either that high and as such I’m not the biggest fan of the picks. The third day had its moments particularly with Newton but there’s too much here I don’t like despite the cracking start with J.J. Watt.
Indianapolis Colts
1. Anthony Castonzo OT Boston College. I expected the Colts to take an OT here as Bill Polian has openly admitted he wished he had taken Rodger Saffold above Jerry Hughes this time last year. Castonzo is a nice fit in Indy. He’s a fine athlete who shows enough to remain at his college position of Left Tackle. He does have some breakdowns in pass protection (see Virginia Tech game particularly), but this becomes less of an issue with Manning’s quick release.
2. Ben Ijalana OT Villanova. The Colts clearly wanted to stress Offensive Line taking Ijalana in the second round. He’s a small schooler who was dominant against lesser competition. He has borderline height to stay at Tackle at the next level but his long arms could keep him outside. The main issue with him is that he’s a finesse player perhaps too much so. His hand placement is almost delicate and he certainly doesn’t have heavy hands. If the Colts want to run the ball better, then I don’t know if Ijalana is the type of player who will help blow people off the ball but he does have talent and is a fine athlete.
3. Drake Nevis DT LSU. Nevis is a typical Colts DT pick an undersized one gap penetrator who I think is very good value here. Nevis dominated the SEC this year and really it’s only because he’s 294 lbs that so many teams passed on him. He fits the Colts system perfectly and there’s no reason why he can’t produce in the rotation as a rookie.
4. Delone Carter RB Syracuse. Carter is another solid pick. The main reason for him being a fourth round pick despite being better as a pure runner is that at Syracuse he came off the field on passing downs, so he’s not experienced as a receiver or in pass protection. He’s a short kid at 5’8 but is very well put together at 222 lbs. He’s a powerful runner who has decent, but not great speed. He carried the load for Syracuse and should push for some time initially as a short yardage back but he has the talent to be more, particularly as he picks up the passing game.
6. Chris L. Rucker CB Michigan State. From talent alone this is a steal. However, Rucker spent 8 days in prison in the middle of the season, so fell due to his risk off the field. If the organisation as a whole is comfortable with the pick then the risk/reward here is more than acceptable.
Overall Good
Quality not quantity here and I like all the picks although I do have some concerns about Ijalana. Castonzo does have his negative moments, but should be their starting left tackle for years to come. Nevis should help right away with the two third day picks Carter and Rucker offering potential. It isn’t a draft with huge names, but it is a draft filled with talent.
Jacksonville Jaguars
1. Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri. I’m not a fan of Gabbert and as mentioned in my first round review, going up and getting him wasn’t a move I would have made. The Jags do need a long term QB as David Garrard has struggled, but I don’t see Gabbert as the answer or a great fit. He will force passes and is not the game manager the Jags require. I don’t know he can step in as a rookie, sitting him for a year will help him and improve his chances but there’s little use in this pick for a coach on the hot seat and needing a pass rush in the worst way. Gene Smith always surprises and after being universally picked to go DE in the first round, he ignored the position throughout the draft.
3. Will Rackley OG/C Lehigh. The Jags moved up a few spots to ensure they were able to draft a typical Gene Smith small school pick. Rackley played Left Tackle in college, but projects to Guard or Center as a pro as he lacks the length and foot speed to stay outside. He’s a very aggressive kid who has excellent hand placement and heavy hands. I’m a little concerned in pass protection he doesn’t always bend and that will cause him leverage problems. However, this is a solid pick and a nice fit for the Jags run game.
4a. Cecil Shorts WR Mount Union. Shorts had a huge step up in competition to deal with as he played for Division 3 Mount Union. The Colts WR Pierre Garcon has paved the way from Mount Union to the NFL and Shorts will hope he can follow in Garcon’s footsteps. Shorts did it all for Mount Union including running the Wildcat and returning kicks. They were able to get him the ball on little bubble screens and the like and at that level with the ball in his hands, he was very dangerous. His hands are decent, but he did have some drops in the two games I managed to catch in the playoffs. He has average speed with a 4.5 40 time. With the step up in competition in mind and the occasional drop, I think this is a round or two early and I personally had Dwayne Harris (Cowboys) and Jeremy Kerley (Jets) rated much higher.
4b. Chris Prosinski FS Wyoming. The Jags have major issues at both Safety spots and missed a trick in last years deep Safety Draft. This wasn’t the Draft to need Safety help particularly not on day three. Prosinski’s stock was elevated after his pro day where he ran his 40 in the low 4.4’s. As a minimum he should be ideal as a punt coverage gunner. At Safety he can flash up into plays and makes solid tackles. He’s under the radar after playing at struggling Wyoming, but he has some ability.
5. Rod Issac CB Middle Tennessee State. CB was another thin position this year so Smith went out of the box with this pick. Issac didn’t come into the season with a draftable grade, but pushed himself up boards with a solid pro day. He’s a high character kid who has some raw skills.
Overall Poor
My main problem with this Draft is that it doesn’t give Jack Del Rio who is on a fairly hot seat much to help him right now. The pass rush was completely ignored and you wouldn’t expect the Jags to be big players in free agency to fix the problem. The decision to move up to take a franchise QB isn’t a bad idea for a team like Tennessee with a new Head Coach but for Jacksonville it’s questionable (Arizona are in a similar situation and they stayed away from QB). The problem in this Draft is that four QB’s were off the board in the first 12 picks and I wouldn’t have touched any of them before 20. Gabbert is by no means a sure thing and I don’t like moving up to get him when a number of teams with QB needs passed on him. They also moved up for Rackley and Prosinski leaving them with only five picks that might be great for Atlanta, but I think the Jags are further away from being a top team and thus a strategy more like Cleveland’s would have been far better. Rackley is the only instant help for me and thus this effort gets a poor grade.
Tennessee Titans
1. Jake Locker QB Washington. Locker was my number one rated QB, so in some ways I like the pick. But the 8th pick in the Draft is a little early for this pick. I do sympathise with QB needy teams this year and as it turned out they couldn’t wait until the second round as all the top QB’s were then gone and I doubt they could have traded down (Dallas tried, but failed) so they were left in a no win situation. Locker is someone who is a very hard worker was 100% clean off the field at this position particularly I think it counts for something. He clearly needs to continue to work on his footwork to improve his accuracy in the pocket, but I back him to do this. He’s going to have his problem if he’s asked to start from week one, but with a new regime in place, a QB made sense with only Rusty Smith likely to be on the roster in camp (Kerry Collins is a FA).
2. Akeem Ayers OLB UCLA. Ayers could play a similar role to Von Miller in Denver as he has experience at DE in nickel situations and has some pass rush ability. He will be very effective blitzing from the base defense. He looked fantastic against Texas early in the year, but wasn’t able to play to that level throughout the year. His Combine workout was poor, but he ran better at his Pro Day and clearly the Titans were happy enough to take him this high, although I would worry about him in man coverage against TE’s. On his flashes, this pick is valid but he’s not a sure thing with his inconsistency.
3. Jurrell Casey DT USC. Casey was the third Pac-10 pick in a row. He’s a one gap type who looks a little soft. His 10 yard split at the Combine wasn’t great and thus he fell to this level I never thought he had a chance in the first round after the Combine showing and thus this is probably about right value wise. Unlike Nick Fairley at Auburn, he wasn’t able to rotate as USC were thin depth wise so conditioning was a major issue at times. He works hard and keeps trying even when tired. He has short arms and small hands so will always struggle to get off blocks. I’m not as high on him as others and am only so-so with this pick.
4a. Colin McCarthy MLB Miami (Fl.). McCarthy had the best Combine showing in the ILB group but concerns about his shoulders meant he didn’t rise up draft boards. I thought he tested out faster than he played and also have concerns about his struggles to get off blocks. However, he has a high motor and takes good angles. The health side of things is the biggest concern if he can stay healthy he should be able to move into the starting lineup in time as a solid LB.
4b. Jamie Harper RB Clemson. Harper shared time with C.J. Spiller in 2009 and Andre Ellington in 2010. He’s the thunder to Spiller and Ellington’s lightning. Much of the season I wasn’t particularly impressed as a runner although that was a different story in the Florida State game as he almost carried Clemson to the win. He’s a reliable receiver with 37 receptions in 2010 but overall I think this is a little early.
5. Karl Klug DE Iowa. Klug played DT for Iowa, but at 275 lbs projects to DE at the next level. He’s a high motor prospect who had some great battles in the trenches this past season the most entertaining being against Steve Schilling in the Michigan game. Klug understands leverage and was able to win battles against bigger bodies because of it. He could be a tweener but he’s the type that are tough to cut come roster cut down day.
6. Byron Stingily OT Louisville. Stingily had a fine Pro Day to push himself up boards. He’s a Junior College transfer who was a two year starter for Louisville, but looked very athletic but raw. He also has a medical red flag after back surgery in the spring of 2010. He has the raw athletic ability to play Left Tackle and as such this is worth a shot.
7a. Zach Clayton DT Auburn. Clayton is another who moved up boards with a big Pro Day. He flashed ability in Auburn’s rotation but was overshadowed by Nick Fairley and even Mike Blanc. He has short arms, so is always going to struggle to get off blocks but his high motor could see him push for playing time in the Titans rotation.
7b. Tommie Campbell CB California (Pa.). The Titans finished things off with yet another Pro Day workout warrior. Campbell ran his 40 in the low 4.3’s and although he is listed as a FS he might well get a shot at CB first with his speed. At 6’3 203 lbs he’s the perfect punt coverage gunner.
Overall Below Average
There’s not a whole lot of value in the this Draft particularly in the early rounds and as such it lowers the grade. I do like Locker but not so much this high as he does still need work and might not be able to start away. They made some interesting athletic numbers picks in the later rounds Stingily particularly stands out but these are long shots. So overall, a below average grade.
