NCAA Scouting 2011 Draft Review – AFC West by Paul Emery May 7th 2011
The AFC West is up for Draft review plenty of speed on show no doubt from the Raiders! Who can give themselves the most help in a competitive division?
Denver Broncos
1. Von Miller OLB Texas A&M.; The general opinion until a couple of days before the Draft was that Denver would go for Marcell Dareus as they have very little at DT on the roster. Not only did they ignore the position with this pick, but they did in the entire Draft! Miller’s strength is getting after the QB he’s very quick off the edge and also wins the leverage battle by getting nice and low. The problem with a 4-3 is that he won’t get the chance to rush the passer a great deal in the base defense. However, in the nickel, I would expect him to stand up at the line and blitz. In terms of a pick, there isn’t great value for a 4-3 LB with the second pick but Miller is by far a better player than Dareus and was seen as clean off the field, unlike the Alabama man. The only question with the pick is value, but they get away with it as Miller can rush the passer from the nickel defense.
2a. Rahim Moore FS UCLA. This was a very thin Safety class, so Denver decided to go get the top FS in the Draft with their first second round pick rather than wait around until later and perhaps be disappointed. Moore was a little inconsistent on tape and this prevented him from being a first round pick. He was very productive in 2009, but not so much in 2010 although he did play in the box a little more and thus had fewer chances to be a ball hawking centre fielder. Moore is a reliable tackler and generally is very active. It’s a solid pick if Moore can find his consistency, it could be a great one.
2b. Orlando Franklin OT Miami (Fl.). Franklin had a poor Senior year. He was beaten time and time again off the edge and he had fallen down my board. However, after the season he had surgery on a knee injury thus explaining his down year. He then was able to run at the Combine and lit things up elevating his stock instantly back to where it was coming into the season. The main concern with Franklin is that he’s a tall kid who doesn’t naturally bend. He showed enough athletic ability for Left Tackle at the Combine and he has long enough arms for the position. Knee injuries to Da’Quan Bowers and Stephen Paea saw them fall about a round, but Franklin’s knee must have been clear. This pick has an element of risk to it as he’s not the most flexible athlete and is basically a projection from his combine numbers after that poor Senior year.
3. Nate Irving ILB North Carolina State. While the number one feel good story of the year (Mark Herzlich) went undrafted another in Irving went a little higher than expected. Irving missed the 2009 season after a serious car accident. He got better and better as the season progressed, ending up in the second day. He’s got decent LB size with long arms and big hands to help him get off blocks but his 40 time at the Combine (mid 4.7’s) doesn’t lend itself to the 4-3 or a third round pick. So the Broncos have made this pick on the back of his tape and not his timed speed. His play is far better than his 40 time he’s quick to diagnose plays and will make the big play consistently. He’s instinctive, relentless and tough. This is another pick in this region that doesn’t have conventional value in terms of raw numbers, but is a better player than athlete pick.
4a. Quinton Carter SS Oklahoma. Carter’s speed and man coverage ability isn’t good enough for him to stay as a FS, the position he played in college. However, he can certainly hit so he’s a nice projection to a Strong Safety. Like Moore he was inconsistent this past season but I thought to a great extent than the second rounder. There were two games when he was pretty much invisible. However, when he was on he looked very good. He needs to make sure he doesn’t get flagged for helmet to helmet hits he was a few times in 2010. Overall, the value here is sound and he should as a minimum stand out on special teams.
4b. Julius Thomas TE Portland State. Thomas played football for only one year in college after playing four years of basketball. He had a decent year at a lower level but crucially at the Shrine Game he didn’t look out of place. At the Combine he had a pretty good workout enough for him to be taken here as an upside pick. He has much to learn, but did look quite natural despite his lack of experience and Denver will hope he can become the latest TE from a basketball background to have NFL production.
6. Mike Mohamed ILB California. Mohamed has good size and experience in a 3-4 in College and as such I thought a 3-4 team might have a look at him before this spot. He ran faster at the Combine than Irving, so in terms of raw numbers is suited to the 4-3 a little better. He’s a tough kid who will contribute right away on special teams but I think he has enough to push for a starting role. This is good value here as I thought he would be off the board a round or two earlier.
7a. Virgil Green TE Nevada. Talking of value, Green was regarded as a 3rd round pick by some. The TE field was interesting this year and while a short Lance Kendricks went in the second round, DJ Williams and Green didn’t fare as well and fell. Green is an excellent receiver with good speed he will be able to create matchup problems. He’s further along than Thomas and could contribute before the fourth round pick. As a blocker Green isn’t the best and therein lies the reason he fell. He’s a very solid character off the field and despite the fact he’s a HB type only, I think this is a good value pick.
7b. Jeremy Beal DE Oklahoma. Coming into the season many had Beal as a first round pick. I was never that high on him and after he ran a very poor time at the Combine his stock fell considerably. I thought Beal looked far better when he stood up a couple of yards off the line as when right up at the line either with his hand in the dirt or stood up he struggled to get off blocks hugely. He was very productive rushing the passer in college but is a better college player than pro prospect due to his athletic limitations.
Overall Very Good
The only pick I’m not sure about is Franklin even considering the knee injury his play was so poor in 2010 that it’s tough to forget. The remainder of the Draft is good, but I felt they needed to address the DT position and in a deep class they missed out on some good prospects particularly in the second round. They will clearly need to address this in free agency. However outside of this I think this is a very good draft there is some good value on day three and indeed Virgil Green could be a steal as he will enable them to create some mismatches.
Kansas City Chiefs
1. Jonathan Baldwin WR Pittsburgh. For every Greg Jennings or Marques Colston at WR we get a Terrell Owens or Dez Bryant it does seem the position has its fair share of interesting characters. Baldwin falls into the TO/Dez Bryant category. As a Junior in 2010 he felt the Pitt coaching staff purposely didn’t call plays his way so he would have a poor year and return as a Senior in 2011. Clearly this is nonsense and I’m surprised that criticism of a respected NFL type coach in Dave Wannstedt (now with the Bills) led to a first round pick usually it leads to a big fall. When on Baldwin deserves to be the third WR in the Draft he looked superb in a couple of games but equally in a couple of others he just wasn’t interested. I’m just not on board with Baldwin as a minimum I think you should at least give 100% effort, Baldwin doesn’t and thus is wildly inconsistent. He will have to be managed and may always be a locker room problem. A boom or bust pick and the type of pick as a GM you hope someone else makes as it could look pretty bad on your resume.
2. Rodney Hudson OG/C Florida State. Hudson is a solid character and indeed is one of the better character prospects in this Draft. On the field I wasn’t as high on him as others were, but after more study he did grow on me. He’s a little light at only 300 lbs, so might be best at Center as a pro despite playing Guard in college. In division he will only have to deal with one 3-4 NT for the Chargers and that will help him as the big question is whether he can anchor against that sort of player. I thought his pass protection was his weakness at times he forgets to move his feet, so becomes a waist bender. In the run game has gets square and is skilled in the zone blocking scheme. Overall, this is a little earlier than I would have taken him, but I do understand why he was taken here.
3a. Justin Houston OLB Georgia. Now it’s back to a question mark off the field with Houston who reportedly failed a drugs test at the Combine causing him to fall (he was rumoured to be a late first/early second type). Houston played in Georgia’s new 3-4 as a Junior and thus is one of few college players to have experience in the system. His main strength is rushing the passer he flashes ability in this area although against Jah Reid (Round 3 Ravens) in the Bowl game he was neutralised. The main concern for Houston in the 3-4 is that he struggles to set the edge. In the Auburn game he was controlled in the run game by a 240 lb HB so right now he’s a situational pass rusher only.
3b. Allen Bailey DE Miami (Fl.). This is an interesting pick. There is value here as Bailey at least flashed second round talent. The fit is the most interesting thing. Bailey showed he can hold up at the point of attack and indeed has long arms to enable him to stack and shed in the two gap way (the Chiefs base defense). However, he is only 6’3, so lacks the traditional length required in the two gap defense. He looked like a 4-3 LDE to me who flashed pass rush ability, particularly early in the year. I’ll be interested to see how the Chiefs use him certainly I can see him in the nickel as a DT, but I don’t see him as a fit for their base defense but he is a solid character off the field which counts for something.
4. Jalil Brown CB Colorado. Brown is another solid character off the field unlike his college team mate Jimmy Smith. Brown is at his best when he’s up and pressing the only issue is that he has short arms, so whether he can do this at the next level I question. Brown isn’t super fast in the 40 but his 10 yard split is excellent, so the Chiefs might well see him as a nickel/dime CB to start with. He had some problems looking into the backfield and getting beaten on double moves but I like him and think he’s a solid pick here.
5a. Ricky Stanzi QB Iowa. Pretty much everyone had Stanzi in their top 100’s and while I wasn’t super great with this, I refused to put someone in my Top 10 who I thought was a late round talent (and therein lies why I wasn’t super great at this!!). So despite the fact I’m not real high on Stanzi the value here is decent enough. He’s basically a game manager type but I feel his accuracy isn’t good enough for him to be anything more than a backup. He cut his interceptions down dramatically as a Senior, but when he had to win a game in the fourth quarter, he wasn’t able to do so. A solid kid off the field, he is what he is and at least he wasn’t taken in the third round!
5b. Gabe Miller OLB Oregon State. Miller wasn’t on my radar. He flashed ability as a DE, but not to the extent I had him as a draftable prospect. He projects as a OLB in the Chiefs 3-4. A former TE who still has some upside, but a little early for me.
6. Jerrell Powe NT Mississippi. One of the disadvantages of me spending a great deal of time in the summer last year looking at prospects is that I had the 2009 Powe in my mind and thought he would be a much higher pick than this. He didn’t play as well in 2010 primarily as he was on the field far more and conditioning was then an issue. However, he was still able to flash a good burst off the ball and not many 320+ lb men can do this. This wasn’t evident at the Combine though where his numbers were poor. Overall though I like the value and I think if they can use him in base packages only and keep him fresh they could have themselves a starter at a tough position to find.
7. Shane Bannon FB Yale. Bannon’s Pro Day pushed him into the 7th round at 270 lbs he ran a 4.7 40! He should push Mike Cox for a roster spot.
Overall Below Average
I think the best of the bunch here is Powe who I really like particularly in the sixth round. I also like Allen Bailey, but I don’t really see the fit. Jalil Brown is also a solid fit, but outside of that I’m not a huge fan of this class. Baldwin is someone you either love or hate and I pick the latter he’s just not my type of player and I wouldn’t want to be the one taking the gamble on him. They then did the same with Justin Houston his inability to set the edge limits him and even in the third round I’m not the biggest fan of the value. Not a great effort for me.
Oakland Raiders
2. Stefen Wisniewski OG/C Penn State. Wisniewski’s uncle, Steve, is the Raiders Offensive Line coach, so the Raiders will have had a real comfort zone with this pick as they clearly know everything about him there is to know. This was a good pick in that Wisniewski is a fine technician, but on my height/weight/speed scale from the Combine, Wisniewski comes out on top for the interior line so it’s still a classic Raiders pick. Wisniewski was my top rated interior lineman, so clearly I love the pick I think he’s slightly better at Guard than Center, but does offer the ability to play both. I think he starts for 10+ years and should push for multiple Pro Bowls.
3a. DeMarcus Van Dyke CB Miami (Fl.). As much as I like the Wisniewski pick I really don’t like this pick at all. Van Dyke ran in the mid 4.2’s at the Combine but he’s only 176 lbs, so will get pushed around a fair bit. He needs work on technique although he can clearly turn and run with anyone deep. It’s a similar pick to Walter McFadden last year, but I feel Van Dyke needs more work than the former Auburn man at this time last year.
3b. Joseph Barksdale OT LSU. Barksdale isn’t a classic Raiders pick as he’s a heavy footed Right Tackle type with super long arms. He has talent, but never dominated at LSU. From tape I felt he was a third day type and not deserving of this lofty pick. He shows ability as a drive blocker, but has to watch he doesn’t bend at the waist. In pass protection he struggles against speed even with his long arms and also struggles against double moves as once he gets going in one direction he finds it tough to mirror. He may have to move inside to Guard, but will need to work on his knee bend as otherwise he’s going to struggle leverage wise.
4a. Chimdi Chekwa CB Ohio State. Chekwa is another speed pick at CB he ran his 40 in the high 4.3’s in Indy. In many ways he’s similar to Van Dyke. He needs technique work he doesn’t tend to backpedal, but turns side on meaning it’s easy to run a 10 yard out or hook in front of him as he has to turn his body right around to break on the ball. He fractured his wrist in the Sugar Bowl so didn’t play in any of the All-Star games, which seemed to lower his stock even with the fast 40 time. Doubling up with a very similar pick is a little questionable.
4b. Taiwan Jones RB Eastern Washington. With their second fourth round pick, the Raiders went for a fast RB. Jones was an early entry from Eastern Washington it’s fairly rare we see early entries from a lower level. Jones was hurt in the playoffs (broken ankle) and only worked out fairly late in the Pro Day season, but did run in the mid 4.3’s. He played at 175 lbs, but was up at 194 for his Pro Day. He’s a threat to take it the distance every time he touches the ball and is a poor man’s Chris Johnson. He has had problems staying healthy and this seems to have prevented him from going any earlier. If the Raiders manage his touches, hopefully that will keep him healthy and this pick should then prove to be solid.
5. Denarius Moore WR Tennessee. Moore ran a decent, but not blazing time at the Combine (low 4.4’s). He really came on as the season progressed with Tennessee opening up their offense. The highlight of the year was the Kentucky game where he made several big plays. He doesn’t have great career numbers, but did enough in the second half of the year to make this pick solid value.
6. Richard Gordon TE Miami (Fl.). It wasn’t a great TE field this year and Gordon wasn’t someone I was impressed with on tape, but he ran in the high 4.6’s at his Pro Day to move his stock into this range. As a receiver Gordon is inconsistent having too many drops. As a blocker he bends at the waist too much for my liking struggling against Jabaal Sheard (Round 2 Browns) in the Pitt game. A little surprising the Raiders didn’t like Virgil Green who was still on the board.
7. Davis Ausberry WR USC. On tape Ausberry is a big (6’3, 243 lbs) possession receiver but at his Pro Day he ran a surprising time in the high 4.4’s. Ausberry played a bit part role for the Trojans this year, but was a frequent red zone target. He certainly didn’t display that kind of speed on tape. He could possibly be viewed as a HB type I seem to recall a certain Shannon Sharpe being a similar story.
Overall Below Average
The Wisniewski pick is a very good one, but after that it goes downhill somewhat. The Jones pick could turn out to be the best pick on the third day providing he can stay healthy. I’m not high on the two CB’s, Barksdale, Gordon or Ausberry so overall I’m not a huge fan of this class.
San Diego Chargers
1. Corey Liuget DE Illinois. Liuget is a one gap penetrator who has borderline length to play the five technique position in the Chargers 3-4 defense. However, when you consider a shorter player against 6’5+ Tackles will always have the leverage advantage, then this pick can work. Many considered Liuget as a 4-3 3 technique only, but I do think he can hold up against Tackles and make this work. The value is sound he’s a high motor prospect who will cause any number of problems. A great start to proceedings.
2a. Marcus Gilchrist CB/FS Clemson. Gilchrist has experience at CB and Free Safety, so offers the Chargers the flexibility to move him around. He can start out in the nickel packages and go from there. He’s also a solid returner so can help on special teams. This was a think Safety class and as such I think Gilchrist did benefit from that but he has very quick feet and is able to get out of his backpedal very quickly. The value isn’t the best for me but considering the weak Safety class, I can live with it.
2b. Jonas Mouton ILB Michigan. Running a 40 in the mid 4.8’s never used to mean you were going to be a second round pick but clearly times are changing. He was very productive in college, although he was a little inconsistent at times. He doesn’t get off blocks particularly well with part of that problem being because he has very short arms, so this isn’t something that is likely to get better. He’s solid in coverage although with that 40 time there are limitations. However, there’s no getting away from this being the weakest pick in the second round.
3a. Vincent Brown WR San Diego State. Again this isn’t a conventional value pick. Brown ran the slowest 40 time in the WR group at the Combine and that usually means a day three pick and possibly into the realms of the undrafted. However, Brown did run faster at his Pro Day and after impressing at the Senior Bowl he found himself off the board in the middle of the third round. Brown was my fifth rated WR, so clearly I like the kid but with my scouts hat on I don’t think the value is great although there were a number of picks like this. Brown plays faster than he timed though and gave Devon House(Round 4 Packers) problems deep. He’s a reliable hands catcher and is very quick out of his breaks to create separation. I guess at the end of the day I think he’ll be productive and thus it’s a good pick but again I question the value.
3b. Shareece Wright CB USC. Wright is a smaller CB at 5’11, 185 lbs but he is very physical and plays much bigger than his size. USC used him in a bunch of different ways including as a regular blitzer off the edge. He’s a press CB who has enough speed to turn and run with his man. When he’s in off man, his technique issues are much as Chimdi Chekwa he’ll turn side-on and peak into the backfield making it easy to run out routes or hooks on him. However, he did show he can backpedal and break out of it and overall he has that certain something that draws you to him. He does have medical concerns, but one presumes these were cleared by the Chargers medical team.
6a. Jordan Todman RB Connecticut. I got the sense prior to the Draft that Todman’s stock was heading South, but I was still surprised to see him around in the sixth round so while there’s not been great value in this Draft this pick is every bit excellent value. Todman was extremely productive in college but he’s not the biggest back in the world, so is a question mark to bring his physical running style to the NFL and stand up sufficiently. He’s a good receiver though and should prove to be a good compliment to Ryan Mathews.
6b. Steve Schilling OG Michigan. Schilling isn’t the best athlete in the world and indeed he lost out at times in some of his battles this year (the most entertaining of the year being against Iowa Karl Klug) but he is a gritty kid who works very hard and is the type who can be a solid starter for many years without really looking particularly pretty. This is good enough value here he’s the type of kid that will be hard to cut come roster cutdowns.
7. Andrew Gachkar OLB Missouri. Gachkar has had problems staying healthy, but like Wright must have been cleared by the medical team prior to this pick. He ran a 40 time in the mid 4.5’s at his Pro Day, pushing him up boards. He’ll push for time in the nickel defense and will also contribute on special teams coverage units.
Overall Above Average
This Draft is actually pretty tough to rate. With my scouts hat on, the value with some of these picks is quite frankly poor you wouldn’t catch some teams taking Mouton or Brown this high. I am torn by the Brown pick as I do think he will become a productive NFL receiver. I do like the value with the two sixth round picks though particularly Todman. Despite the fact I do love Brown, I’ll keep this grade at above average because of the lack of value the Mouton pick does drag the grade down on its own as I didn’t think he would come off the board before the later rounds.
