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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – AFC North Draft Review
by Paul Emery
May 22nd 2013
Having finished equal 12th with Mike Mayock (and ahead of Mel Kiper) in the Huddle Report’s Top 100 rankings this year, Paul Emery now rates your team’s 2013 Draft Class.
Assigning Draft grades has never been my thing, although the last couple of years I’ve done so. But many have shown much comes down to opportunity as well as talent, so I’ll avoid them this year but I will give my general impression. I’ll give a player by player analysis of each Draft pick and throw in a few of my favourite undrafted free agents (UDFA’s) as well.
I did try and watch every draftable prospect, but in some cases that wasn’t possible (access/money or time usually!) and in those cases I’ll state that and make no comment, rather than trying to fudge it or saying it was a reach just because the player wasn’t on my list of prospects or something!
Baltimore Ravens
I have to admit to not being the biggest fan of this class, mainly due to the fact that I’m not high on three of the first four picks. After that it does improve, with Mellette particularly being an interesting pick.
1. Matt Elam SS Florida. I found Elam’s tape inconsistent. I grade every player for each individual game I watch and there were a couple of games where I had a day three gradeson him. Equally he had better games, but the lack of consistency is an issue for a player taken this high. He makes some highlight fill plays, getting downhill superbly but his angles and tackling are inconsistent. In coverage he looks very comfortable in zone, but when he was in off man I thought he had problems with changing directions. He’s tight in the hips and is also short, so I’m not sure you can do as much with him as Jon Cyprien who was still on the board (Cyprien isn’t 100% clean, but is longer and matches up better against tall WR’s/TE’s ). If I was an NFL GM, this kid is one who I would have let someone else take a chance on he has some boom or bust about him for me.
2. Arthur Brown ILB Kansas State. I was rather surprised when Brown ran a fast time at his pro day. On tape he was regularly beaten to the edge by RB’s and I figured he would run a 4.9+. The fact that he ran fast means his instincts are a major question mark. Seen by many as a value pick because several draft analysts pegged him as a first round pick, I’m the other way in that I think this was too early for him. His read and react is poor and I’m not sure that will necessarily change, therefore I’m not a fan of the player or the pick.
3. Brandon Williams DT Missouri Southern State. Williams dominated his level of competition where his raw power won out consistently in both phases of the game. At the Senior Bowl he passed the level of competition test, giving players from bigger schools some real problems. He tested out superbly at the Combine, having one of the best explosion numbers (add bench, vertical and broad). He will need to learn to use his hands better as the raw power won’t give him as much success in the NFL as it did in Division two, but I like the system fit and the upside.
4a. John Simon OLB/DE Ohio State. When I was putting together my top 100 I knew Mike Mayock had this guy in his from his pre-Draft press conference. But when I looked back at my notes it was clear he wasn’t even close, so in one of the easier decisions I left him off. Simon is a shorter edge rusher, who played DE in college in a 3-4 hybrid that the Ravens used when Ray Lewis started to slow down. He was hurt at the Combine, but tested out well at his pro day. His athletic numbers didn’t really translate on tape I thought and indeed he just looked like a high motor guy off the edge with limited upside. It’s tough to knock someone who gives it 100%, but his tape to me was just average and this is a couple of rounds too soon particularly considering the medical question mark.
4b. Kyle Juszczyk FB Harvard. I wondered where Juszczyk would be taken, I would have taken him in this region but he lacks the height to be a TE and FB’s are not exactly fashionable. It seems the Ravens are going to use him as a HB/move FB. For Harvard he lined up in multiple positions often in the slot or as a move TE, but also as an inline TE and FB. At the Senior Bowl he played FB and had one of the highlights of the week, knocking Khaseem Greene on his backside in pass protection drills. Juszczyk is an excellent receiver and should contribute in this area right away. He put up really good numbers in the Ivy League and I really like the pick.
5. Rick Wagner OT Wisconsin. Wagner is a guy who isn’t the best athlete in the world, but is consistent and reliable. He could end up starting at right tackle or guard for years and doing a solid job, so I think the pick is very good. Rated higher coming into the year, he seemed to steadily move down media boards as the year went on and never recovered it could be the media just had him too high in the first place. He needs some technique work, but perhaps inside at guard he might be a little more comfortable as many of his issues are just from being stressed with edge speed. He looked heavy footed and would set up too far outside and leave the inside open. His hand placement was poor at times as well, getting his hands too far outside which will draw holding penalties. He doesn’t look the most flexible of athletes, but having said that he still dominated Michael Buchanan in the Illinois game. He lacks athletic upside, which saw him still around at this point but the value here is sound.
6a. Kapron Lewis-Moore DT Notre Dame. Lewis-Moore likely will be on PUP or IR to start his career after tearing his ACL late in the season. He played DE in the base 3-4 and then DT in the nickel although he wasn’t always on the field in obvious passing situations. He showed nice initial pop, but struggled more when that didn’t work. He has a really nice frame and is therefore a nice system fit when he gets back to 100%.
6b. Ryan Jensen OT – Colorado State-Pueblo. He’s one I wasn’t able to see, so can’t comment.
7a. Aaron Mellette WR Elon. Mellette was a really interesting evaluation. In 2011, while scouting an Elon UDFA offensive lineman Mellette stood out. He gave Casey Hayward major problems in the Vanderbilt game and I thought outperformed Rams 2012 second rounder Brian Quick in the Appalachian State game. So, coming into the season I had a high grade on him and certainly expected him to be a top 100 pick. In the season opener against North Carolina, Mellette was pretty much shut out by the Tar Heels Cover-2 defense. That seemed to knock his confidence and it took him a few games to get back to 2011 form. But he certainly did so and I saw a couple of games where he just dominated with his power after the catch and ability to box people out. At the Senior Bowl he had a relatively quiet week, but then I don’t remember Quick standing out The talent is there for sure, but I wonder if he’s the opposite of Quinton Patton, i.e. he doesn’t believe in himself enough. I like the pick, it’s not a sure fire thing that he makes the roster, but if they can get him playing consistently at his 2011 level then they will have something big. Could be the best pick of day three this year, or nothing
7b. Marc Anthony CB California. Anthony has decent size, but ran poorly at the Combine (high 4.5’s). He has extensive experience in zone coverage and certainly is not afraid to come up and support against the run. At times in zone coverage he didn’t look particularly instinctive, which is a concern… He will likely have to push for a roster spot based on special teams coverage.
Top UDFA’s
Not the biggest or best class, but still one or two interesting types. Perry Jones (RB, Virginia) is a smaller back, but has some make you miss. Rogers Gaines (OT, Tennessee State) is a big college left tackle who is likely a pro right tackle candidate and is a solid fit. Trent Steelman (athlete, Army) was an option QB for Army and could be tried at RB or WR he will have a military commitment, but could make the roster. Ray Holley (RB, Louisiana Tech) is a shorter back who came on in 2012 and will compete with Bobby Rainey for a roster spot.
Cincinnati Bengals
I thought the Bengals drafted well last year and this looks like another very good effort. They do a nice job of making value picks and certainly Burkhead, Hamilton and Fragel were top value. They let the draft come to them in the first round and took the highest player on their board, even though it wasn’t a need. This may draw some criticism, but for me it’s a good idea the only thing I have a slight issue with is the actual pick, I wasn’t as high on Eifert as apparently they were!
1. Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame. Many were predicting Eifert would be taken in the top 15, but I wasn’t as high on him as others and saw him more of a high second round pick so I guess value is like beauty, it’s in the eye of the beholder! He’s a nice receiver who was often used from the slot and should be able to help in this role immediately. However, I didn’t think his blocking was quite as good as some were making out. More finesse than a Gronk, he will form a nice pairing with Jermaine Gresham. He’s a good prospect, but I preferred Travis Kelce just didn’t quite connect with him as an elite prospect.
2a. Giovani Bernard RB North Carolina. Bernard was my top rated running back, it doesn’t always happen that my top rated players are the first taken at their positions but Bernard was. Durability is the only concern with Bernard, he has an ACL tear in his past and isn’t the biggest of backs. However, forming a pairing with BenJarvus Green-Ellis is just a perfect fit for him Green-Ellis can get the tough yards which will hopefully keep Bernard healthy. He’s also a dynamic punt returner the NC State game being the perfect example, taking a punt back for a TD late in the game to win it for the Tar Heels. He’s also a very natural receiver and I can see him making an early impact for the Bengals. He’s the type of player who might help take them to the next level with his big plays.
2b. Margus Hunt DE SMU. Hunt was getting some first round talk after blowing up the Combine with hugely impressive numbers. However, his tape was not always great and he will need some time to develop so this is more like his true value. When he is on, he’s unblockable he showed up in the Bowl game in both 2011 and 2012, completely dominating with his power. The main thing he must work on is playing lower he’s a tall man, so it’s even more important that he bends his knees far more. If he continues to play as high, NFL O-Lineman will just get under him and control him with ease. He carries significant athletic upside, but there is risk here is this the spot where risk meets reward, just about I feel.
3. Shawn Williams SS Georgia. Over shadowed to a degree by Georgia FS Baccari Rambo, Williams called out the Georgia defense and so got himself noticed. Looking at my notes there were games where he was very quiet, which one has to be careful about when calling your team mates out! Certainly against Alabama, a game perfect for him, he struggled to make an impact. Likely his pro day performance saw him taken here and there were glimpses of some man coverage ability on tape, which is a major plus. He flashed explosiveness as a tackler and closing speed, but overall I think this might be just slightly early for me.
4. Sean Porter OLB Texas A&M.; In 2011 Porter was hugely productive playing OLB in A&M;’s 3-4 defense. With a change in coaches, A&M; moved to a 4-3 and Porter had to adjust to playing as a LB in that system. He played in space more and it took him a little while to adjust, but his play did improve as the season went on. However, he still looked best when coming off the edge as he did in 2011 but at 229 lbs, he lacks the bulk to do that at the next level. It’s perhaps a round too early for him, but he does offer the Bengals some skill rushing the passer which they might be able to get him to do if they are creative.
5. Tanner Hawkinson OT Kansas. Hawkinson has some tools to work with. He looked quite light on tape and that was confirmed at the Combine, checking in at 298 lbs which is a little light even by today’s standards. He needs a little technique work on his initial kick/slide step in pass protection he’s a little bit narrow and therefore struggles a little against edge speed, but I think that can be cleaned up and he certainly showed at the Combine that he’s athletic enough for left tackle. He showed he can sit in his stance and anchor, but some added bulk will help him projecting him forward. A nice developmental pick and certainly a player with upside.
6a. Rex Burkhead RB Nebraska. Burkhead had some injury problems in 2012 and his production was therefore down. He tested out very well at the Combine, although his 40 yard dash wasn’t great. However, when he came back from injury I studied him closely and he made a believer out of me, so I really like this pick. More of Green-Ellis type back than a Bernard he played in an option offense, which doesn’t translate directly to the NFL. But he’s a tough runner who can break tackles and I certainly like his chances moving forward.
6b. Cobi Hamilton WR Arkansas. I posted on the NFL (UK) forums that sometimes the NFL overthinks things that post was directed at Slay/Gratz each going before team mates with better tape (Banks/Wreh-Wilson), but it also applies to guys like Hamilton in the 6th round. This is a steal in my opinion and it would seem mainly because Hamilton didn’t run that well at the Combine. Interestingly enough he ran a very similar time to Rutgers CB Logan Ryan, yet in that game he completely torched Ryan and pulled away from him more than once so that speed with pads (the Jerry Rice speed) I think is better than his Combine time would indicate. He needs to eradicate the drops, which were a little too frequent for me. However, on balance I liked him in the middle rounds even in a deep WR class, so this late is a great pick.
7a. Reid Fragel OT Ohio State. Fragel is a former TE who was in his first year at tackle for the Buckeyes. I was expecting him to really fly up boards, but for some reason he didn’t and I was rather surprised he was still on the board this late. Now, his arms aren’t D.J. Fluker like but they are longer than first rounder Justin Pugh’s so I can’t see that being the issue for the fall The most exciting thing about Fragel was his development over the season early on his pass protection technique was all over the place, but he clearly took coaching well as by the end of the season he looked like a different player. He has a very aggressive demeanour and really gets after it much like a Brian Winters. He should continue to improve as he gets used to the position, he has already improved a great deal and I think there’s more to come great value and the ceiling is relatively high for him.
7b. T.J. Johnson C South Carolina. Johnson is a gritty type who I ranked as an undrafted free agent, but I guess if he impressed in interviews before the Draft I can’t argue too much about the value. He has the right idea in terms of technique, but would get overpowered too often but he put up 32 reps of the bench at the Combine, so there’s a disconnect there. His transition from snap to initial contact in pass protection is very good he will get a little high at times, which he’ll need to correct with Haloti Ngata in division. Always unwise to discount this type of player as they usually battle away and find a way to stick and produce.
Top UDFA’s
This is a nice group and several have a real shot to stick. Quinn Sharp (P/PK, Oklahoma State) was a four year starter as a punter and also place kicked for two years. He handles kick-offs as well. He has a good leg and could compete at either position, but likely will do so at one. Onterrio McCalebb (RB, Auburn) is tiny but electric he will need to be managed to keep him healthy, but he has game breaking ability. Larry Black Jr. (DT, Indiana) is a classic three technique who might well have been drafted had he played for a better team needs more consistency, but flashes as a penetrator. Jordan Campbell (LB, New Mexico Highlands) is a USC/Louisville transfer who stood out at the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl he looks best when he reads and flies downhill should push for a spot on the special teams coverage unit. Tyrone Goard (WR, Eastern Kentucky) is a fast receiver who can get deep, but needs more refinement with his routes. Bruce Taylor (ILB, Virginia Tech) has had injury problems, but is a physical presence who will compete with Campbell on special teams. Troy Stoudemerie (CB, Minnesota) is an excellent kick returner and opportunistic corner, he could make the roster solely on his kick return talent. Roy Roundtree (WR, Michigan) made several big plays, but was not consistent he has talent, certainly he’s worth a look. Jayson DiManche (OLB, Southern Illinois) put up excellent pro day numbers and has some pass rush ability.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns elected to pass on a QB, which in this class was probably the right move were any of them significantly better than last years first rounder Brandon Weeden? Doubtful. They only had two picks in the first five rounds, so there is limited help here but they made both picks count in my view, with two really good players. Bryant in the seventh has upside and it will be interesting to see if they can develop him.
1. Barkevious Mingo OLB LSU. A college 4-3 DE, Mingo isn’t that big so was a nice fit for the 3-4. He was an interesting evaluation, but in the end I came away liking him. At times it looked to me almost like he was trying to avoid being labelled as a one trick pony (speed rusher). He seemed to want to beat people with hand use, but he’s not strong enough to win that way consistently. His hand placement was good, but he couldn’t do much with the advantage. When he cut it loose off the edge then he looked amazing. He took over two of the games I watched and looked every inch a top 10 pick. However, he did have some games where he was very quiet. I understood against Texas A&M; he couldn’t fly off the edge with a mobile QB back there, but other games lacking any real threat to run from the QB, he was still quiet. So, there is some risk with the pick I think to just have him fly up the field will be the way forward as a rookie and then get him in the weight room so he can start to get stronger to win with more than speed in the longer term.
3. Leon McFadden CB San Diego State. McFadden is tiny and he didn’t run very fast at the Combine and that usually means a day three pick, but McFadden went here and I don’t have a problem with it. His tape was very good he’s likely a nickel corner and although not as fast as incumbent Buster Skrine (if you look back at my notes of Skrine, you’ll read that despite the speed he got burned deep too often) he’s a better player. Very physical at the line, I like him to make an immediate impact and I think Browns fans will like him.
6. Jamoris Slaughter SS Notre Dame. I saw Notre Dame a few times, but didn’t have any typed notes of Slaughter. He will likely push for a roster spot initially on special teams, where he did contribute. He was active against the run, but in a Cover-2 scheme doesn’t have man coverage ability. I must admit he didn’t jump off the screen, but I’ll also admit to not really studying him that closely.
7a. Armonty Bryant DE East Central. Even watching one of the poorest quality feeds I saw this year, Bryant stood out at a lower level. It was easy to pick him out as he stood head and shoulders above everyone else on the field. Bryant may have been taken earlier, but was arrested during the season for selling marijuana to an undercover police officer. He was arrested just after being drafted as well, so this pick is already looking dubious off the field. On the field he is a very smooth athlete who can change directions very quickly. He lacks a top first step/burst to turn the corner but does have a nice swim move. Against the run he needs to get stronger he was controlled too easily even at a lower level of play. The success/failure of the pick will probably be determined off the field though…
7b. Garrett Gilkey OT/G Chadron State. Gilkey received an invitation to the Senior Bowl and I thought showed some promise in Mobile. He will likely need to move inside to guard in terms of his short arms, but he is 6’5 which is on the tall side. He did show he can sit in his stance in pass protection in Mobile, which is a positive. I didn’t see any of his college tape, but I thought from his week in Mobile that he was draftable, so think this is decent enough value.
Top UDFA’s
The Browns managed to sign four solid undrafted free agents on the offensive line. Chris Faulk (OT, LSU) was hurt early in the season (ACL) and missed the remainder of the season, but elected to come out early anyway hopefully he doesn’t regret his decision a big power tackle who must bend better at the knees. Aaron Adams (OT, Eastern Kentucky) is one of my favourite small school guys he has excellent technique and although not the best athlete I think he can stick. Braxston Cave (C, Notre Dame) is a try hard guy who struggled to anchor at the Senior Bowl, but with some work in the weight room should push for a roster spot. Caylin Hauptmann (OT, Florida International) lacks ideal OT length, but he flashed a really nice first step and I was surprised someone didn’t draft him. Outside of the O-Line a couple of others look interesting. Keenan Davis (WR, Iowa) didn’t have the best year, but Iowa’s passing attack in general was relatively poor certainly worth a look as he might be better with someone half decent at QB (that might be a compliment to Brandon Weeden, I had best be careful!!). Dave Kruger (DE, Utah) is another junior entry who may well regret his decision to come out early. He’s tall, so must play lower but could stick as a five technique.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have traditionally taken OLB’s in the later rounds and developed them, but they clearly didn’t believe the likes of Chris Carter were going to come on enough so they took Jarvis Jones in the first round. Despite the poor pro day numbers, he is an excellent prospect and had top five level tape. The next two picks were nice fits but then things fell away slightly, although with no pressure to start right away perhaps they can develop Landry Jones
1. Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia. Jones was a very interesting evaluation. As mentioned, he had top five tape in the SEC with the only question mark being his frame and the fact he got swallowed up by Alabama’s big O-Line. There was a lingering medical question mark (spinal stenosis which caused USC to fail him medically and thus transfer to Georgia) but that apparently was clear. So, prior to his pro day he was viewed as a top five pick but then he laid an egg. I put all the numbers together, weight them to come up with one overall number and his number was at the level I’ve seen from prospects who have not been athletic enough to make it in the NFL (I call it the Freddie Barnes level). On tape he looks very quick, but even his shuttle and cone drills were poor, which was more of a surprise to me than the slow 40 time. So great tape but poor workout numbers just where do you take such a prospect? Well, here is the Steelers answer and in this class of pass rushers it is decent value. He’s not as big as the Steelers often like, more of a Bruce Irvin type body but he will make every effort to set an edge in the run game. He’s been highly productive rushing the passer and certainly looks more athletic than his pro day numbers suggested. It will be interesting to see how much success Jones has in the NFL he’s one of the more interesting prospects to watch as his career develops.
2. Le’Veon Bell RB Michigan State. Bell is a bigger back and a very good all-around player. He’s very good in pass protection, I think one of the best in this class plus is a very natural receiver. He was hugely productive as a runner for Michigan State, but I had some concerns with him particularly on outside runs. Unlike many young backs, he actually seemed too patient on off tackle runs to the point where he was tackled for losses or no gain. He hits the hole hard in between the tackles, so he just needs to apply that on outside runs when he sees a crease. He can run a little upright at times and takes too many hits, but Eddie George was like that and had a great career. He’s a solid pick who will get the tough yards for the Steelers, but also really help in the passing game both as a receiver and blocker, which should see him trusted with playing time as a rookie.
3. Markus Wheaton WR Oregon State. With the loss of Mike Wallace in free agency, the Steelers wanted a deep threat and Wheaton is certainly that. Wheaton might even be slightly further along with his routes than Wallace was coming out of Ole Miss. The value of the pick is good, the Steelers being fortunate this was a deep class. Wheaton was fun to watch at the Senior Bowl, a good group of CB’s were getting up in press and he didn’t back down. He has good hands and I like the player, the fit and the value.
4a. Shamarko Thomas SS Syracuse. Thomas was a relatively late riser, at least with the media (I’m not sure at what point scouts started getting on board his band wagon). Thomas generally played as a Cover-2 safety for Syracuse, but did have some experience dropping down over the slot WR where he showed nice change of direction and some man coverage ability. He’s a classic downhill thumper not tall (5’8) though and the main question is whether he can compete with 6’6 TE’s like Bengals draft pick Tyler Eifert. Bob Sanders was a smaller safety who had a nice career and the Steelers are banking on him to do the same. I think he’s a good player and this is decent value.
4b. Landry Jones QB Oklahoma. Jones put up huge numbers in college and in the build-up to the Draft Bill Polian was calling him his number one ranked QB (not the biggest compliment in a poor class!). The consensus seemed to be that Jones would be a third/fourth round pick and that was the case. This is a nice situation for him, he does have the raw tools, but has some glaring weaknesses that need to be addressed before he is thrown into the fire. The principal concern is his footwork he often feels pressure when it’s not there and gets happy feet this will often lead to him being off balance when throwing and his accuracy/zip then suffers. When he gets pressure he will also make rushed and often poor decisions. Quite whether that can be corrected I don’t know perhaps that inherent toughness to stick in the pocket, don’t flinch to get the ball out is not taught but he has the arm and intangibles, so he is worth a flyer.
5. Terry Hawthorne CB Illinois. Illinois had a number of prospects defensively particularly, but on a poor team all but Akeem Spence suffered on draft day (and even then he went on day three). Hawthorne went off the board before Michael Buchanan who had to wait until the seventh round (Patriots). Hawthorne is a bigger corner, which fits the current trend. He has experience in press coverage, where he looked most comfortable. When in off coverage, he didn’t look as good his backpedal looks a little stiff and awkward. Isn’t afraid to come up and support the run he will hit hard and coupled with his size, could be viewed as a safety at some point. The value is probably about right here.
6a. Justin Brown WR Oklahoma. Brown was a transfer from Penn State and with only Kenny Stills returning at WR, soon became a nice target for Steelers fourth rounder Landry Jones. A tall receiver he should be a nice red zone target. He really came on as the season progressed and had 15 catches in Bedlam against two good CB’s. He has a big body and can box people out, but looks like more of a possession receiver athletically.
6b. Vince Williams ILB Florida State. This is a nice fit for Williams. He’s not the most athletic, but he’s a downhill thumper who will be right at home in this division. He may struggle to stay on the field in the nickel, but he can find a niche role in the base defense and on special teams. He was a nice surprise at the Senior Bowl where he stood out more than higher rated guys like Khaseem Greene. His tape for Florida State wasn’t as good, however but because of the fit I think the value is sound.
7. Nick Williams DT Samford. I remember at the Combine Mike Mayock talking about getting some tape on Williams after he put up fantastic numbers. I had already seen him and was not hugely impressed, so I didn’t think he would be the big riser Mayock thought he might be and that proved to be the case. However, at this spot in proceedings, the athletic upside makes it very much worth the pick (certainly with those Combine numbers he would have been a hot UDFA and the Steelers may have lost out). He has a really nice frame, but has no idea how to use his long arms to his advantage. He lets blockers get into his body far too easily and even at a lower level of play didn’t always dominate. Most certainly has athletic and frame upside, but he might need a year on the practice squad.
Top UDFA’s
Not the best group, but some stand a chance. Luke Ingram (LS, Hawai’i) was one of the best long snappers in this class, so will stand a chance. Anthony Rashad White (DT, Michigan State) didn’t play as well in 2012 as he drew more attention post Jerel Worthy. He’s a NT candidate for the Steelers who does eat up blockers. Mike Golic Jr. (OG, Notre Dame) made the Good Works team and is the son of ESPN’s Mike Golic he’s tough, but is a long shot for a roster spot.
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