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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – AFC South Draft Review
by Paul Emery
May 22nd 2013
Having finished equal 12th with Mike Mayock (and ahead of Mel Kiper) in the Huddle Report’s Top 100 rankings this year, Paul Emery now rates your team’s 2013 Draft Class.
Assigning Draft grades has never been my thing, although the last couple of years I’ve done so. But many have shown much comes down to opportunity as well as talent, so I’ll avoid them this year but I will give my general impression. I’ll give a player by player analysis of each Draft pick and throw in a few of my favourite undrafted free agents (UDFA’s) as well.
I did try and watch every draftable prospect, but in some cases that wasn’t possible (access/money or time usually!) and in those cases I’ll state that and make no comment, rather than trying to fudge it or saying it was a reach just because the player wasn’t on my list of prospects or something!
Houston Texans
This was a decent draft, particularly the first two picks which were very good. Sam Montgomery was an interesting pick and not the usual Texans type of edge guy. The three sixth round picks don’t stand out to me and I think in all cases there were better options around.
1. DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson. The Texans elected to pass on the riskier Cordarelle Patterson, a decision which I whole-heartedly agree with. Hopkins may not have been as fast at the Combine, but on tape he separated far more and will be ready to contribute immediately as a receiver. His routes are very good and he also has excellent hands. He’s used to playing second fiddle to a top talent, being overshadowed by Sammy Watkins at Clemson. With Watkins having a stop-start 2012 season, Hopkins did emerge from that shadow to a degree particularly in the bowl game where he gave fourth rounder Tharold Simon a torrid time. Hopkins may not be flashy, but I think he’s a perfect foil for Andre Johnson and gives the Texans the second option at receiver they badly needed.
2. D.J. Swearinger FS South Carolina. Swearinger was my number two ranked safety, so clearly I am going to love this pick. He has experience at CB and although he doesn’t project there as a pro (slow 40 time) that coverage experience should see him contribute in the nickel right away. He generally played off man or zone coverage for the Gamecocks, most often over the slot receiver but he also has some deep centre field experience (where his range was a slight question mark). Swearinger is a real enforcer he had a few too many personal fouls (three in three consecutive plays against Arkansas helmet to helmet hit, horse collar and then returned an interception for a TD and threw the ball in the stands!) and he will need to clean that up. On the whole I do think he has the skill set teams are looking for these days in a safety and I like him to become a very good pro.
3a. Brennan Williams OT North Carolina. Williams missed the last four games of the season with a shoulder injury and although he missed the Combine he was able to workout at his pro day. With Derek Newton an injury question mark coming into the season (and they may have wanted to upgrade the position anyway) Williams will get a shot at the right tackle slot. Although he played in a high tempo offense as a senior, Williams isn’t the classic zone blocking scheme player. He’s big but doesn’t look to have great feet. He bends at the waist far too often, which leaves him off balance and that will see him get into trouble in the NFL. He’s a right tackle only type, but I don’t especially like the value or the fit.
3b. Sam Montgomery DE/OLB LSU. This was a strange selection. Montgomery does not fit the usual criteria the Texans look for in their one gap defense (very fast off the edge). Montgomery looks like a classic tweener to me. He’s a slow twitch guy rushing the passer, often the last to move and his Combine numbers were only average. Therefore I don’t see the fit in the Texans 3-4 (or indeed any 3-4). He lacks the length to make up for it, so I didn’t really like him a 4-3 either! He did have some production in the SEC, but I can’t say I ever came away really impressed with him on tape. His hand placement is often very good, but he lacks the strength to make the most of the advantage. I’ll be interested to see how the Texans use him, but I’m not a fan of the player or the scheme fit.
4. Trevardo Williams OLB Connecticut. Williams is more like it from a scheme fit point of view. A college DE, he lacks the bulk and length to stay there as a pro. He was highly productive sack wise, breaking the double digit barrier in each of the last two years. His tape though was not hugely impressive outside of the Louisville game. He can be controlled far too easily as he lacks the bulk and length to get off blocks. He is a good athlete, but even that is not always clear to see on tape. His Combine 10 yard split was very good, however and I think is the reason the Texans took him. The production is better than the tape, but at least I can see the scheme fit here.
6a. Alan Bonner WR Jacksonville State. I watched JSU twice primarily for Washaun Ealey (ex Georgia) but Bonner showed up against Arkansas early in the year (8 catches for 107 yards) and had a good year. He was invited to the Combine, but ran slower than he looked on tape (high 4.5’s), so I didn’t think he would be drafted but tape over ruled 40 time and I have zero problem with that. Bonner showed excellent body control on tape and generally solid hands. He’s not the biggest, but he does have talent.
6b. Chris Jones DT Bowling Green. Perception is interesting. When I watched Jones I had heard quite a lot of buzz about him being a riser and indeed he received some top 100 mentions at one point in the season. Therefore I went in expecting much, but I came away disappointed and perhaps that was a bit unfair on him as someone who was clearly a later rounder. He played the 1 technique spot in a 4-3 base defense and also DE in a 3 man nickel front. He’s a high motor/intensity player who showed some promising hand use, but didn’t look particularly explosive. His 10 yard split number at the Combine wasn’t that fast, so that’s backed up athletically. I’m not sure he’s the best fit in a one gap defense…
6c. Ryan Griffin TE Connecticut. Griffin isn’t the best athlete in the world, but he showed he is a reliable receiver, decent blocker and can help on special teams also. Packaged together, it’s therefore decent enough value here. Not a mauler as a blocker, but plays square and can set an edge could be used as a FB/HB to replace the departed James Casey. Not quite as good as Casey coming out of college, but he does enough things well to think he can crack the 53 man roster.
Top UDFA’s
The Texans had one of the largest UDFA classes, but not much stands out. Collin Klein (Athlete, Kansas State) is the biggest name, a college QB he is a tough guy but lacks the accuracy to remain at QB as a pro he’ll be tried at TE. Cierre Wood (RB, Notre Dame) is one of a number of prospects who came out early only to go undrafted it’s a wonder he didn’t learn a lesson from Darius Walker Ray Graham (RB, Pitt) took a while to return to form post ACL tear in 2012, but had a couple of really good games if healthy he could stick. Graham Pocic (C, Illinois) played right tackle some this year, but projects better inside his versatility may see him stick. Marlon Brown (WR, Georgia) maybe on IR for 2013, but flashed some ability before tearing his ACL. Alec Lemon (WR, Syracuse) was a reliable target for Ryan Nassib. Dann O’Neill (OT, Western Michigan) flashed a nice first step but came unstuck after that but has some tools to work with.
Indianapolis Colts
1. Bjoern Werner DE/OLB Florida State. A couple of months ago it seemed every mock Draft I saw had Werner going to my Jaguars at pick number 2. I really didn’t like him as a top 15 pick, let alone at 2 and so it was that he found his level here. In all honesty, I think Werner might be the third best FSU DE in this Draft class I like Tank Carradine much more and if Brandon Jenkins can get back to 100% then I think he is faster off the edge than Werner. Werner is a high motor prospect and in some regards he’s a little like a Tamba Hali. He’s a little different than Jerry Hughes who they’ve just traded (and getting Kelvin Sheppard in exchange is highway robbery) and suggests they may want a different type of edge rusher than the Tampa-2 undersized 4-3 DE’s they were left with from the previous coaching staff. He’s a solid pick, but his sack numbers were inflated against inferior opposition and although this is more his level, it’s a little too early for me. For some reason, I just never connected with him as a prospect outside of the Florida game.
3. Hugh Thornton OG/T Illinois. Thornton quietly had a very nice Combine workout which repaired his stock significantly after struggling during Senior Bowl week. He showed some flashes for Illinois, but I thought the one on one drills in the pit in Mobile really showed him up and I had him as a day three prospect. He may be able to stay at tackle, but I think it likely better suited to guard. He missed some time with injury in 2012 and although he showed flashes he wasn’t consistent. I think he’s probably going to be better inside, but he did show flashes of a nice first step which makes me think perhaps he could play right tackle… He’s not a Brian Winters mauler, but he is a good zone blocking scheme type who will stick to his blocks effectively. Overall, it’s too early for me value wise but he does have some talent but he’ll need to find consistency.
4. Khaled Holmes C USC. Holmes missed some time with an ankle injury and came back too soon against Utah and really struggled. He’s the second USC Center in a row that I’ve not been enamoured with and both have played too high for my liking. There was some talk before the Draft that Holmes has other things going on other than football, which NFL teams don’t like, but that doesn’t seem to have concerned the Colts. In the run game he looks a much better prospect he really gets after it and on this basis the value is sound. Unfortunately in pass protection he didn’t look anywhere near as good the primary issue being that he played too high. He got jacked back in Matt Barkley’s lap too many times even before the ankle injury. If they can get him playing lower they may have something, but he didn’t look naturally flexible on tape.
5. Montori Hughes DT Tennessee-Martin. Hughes has a huge amount of upside and could prove to be a steal or he may never realise that potential and just get cut after a year or two. At this point in the Draft, it’s worth a punt. Hughes was dismissed from Tennessee and while he stood out from a size point in the OVC, he didn’t always dominate the competition. UTM played Northern Illinois early in the year and in that game Hughes didn’t show up at all. His final home game was the best game I saw from him, looking very much like a top 100 level talent. He was invited to the Senior Bowl and had a nice week, but perhaps the off the field red flag and inconsistencies put people off any earlier. He is a big man and projects nicely to a three man front he has experience in a 3 man front at DE, but I didn’t think he looked as good there as inside, so I think NT might be his best spot. A classic boom or bust.
6. John Boyett FS Oregon. Boyett missed the 2012 season due to injury (partial tears in both patella tendons). Prior to the injury he was rated as a top 100 talent, which I would agree with, so if he is back to 100% this could be a steal. Even if he starts on PUP or even IR, I like this pick. He’s a classic deep centre field ball hawk speed may be a slight question mark at times, but he reads the game well and I think he can be a starter if he is healthy.
7a. Kerwynn Williams RB Utah State. I’ve seen quite a lot of Utah State in the past two seasons and Williams stood out. He’s not as big as the Seahawks Robert Turbin, who he rotated with in 2011. He did handle a higher workload this past season, but is likely to be a role player in the NFL. He can help in the return game and his breakaway speed should see him find his way on the field offensively as well.
7b. Justice Cunningham TE South Carolina. Cunningham flashed talent, but never quite jumped out consistently. I think that teasing potential he showed was enough to pull the trigger here and I would tend to think it’s a solid enough pick. I didn’t think he looked like a top athlete on tape and that was confirmed at the Combine when he ran in the 4.9’s. He flashed the ability to set the edge as a blocker, but needs to improve in this area. I think he has more to give and certainly should get a look in a multiple TE offense.
Top UDFA’s
The Colts only signed nine UDFA’s, so a much smaller class than most others. Dan Moore (RB, Montana) is the pick of the group he was productive in a one back offense, although slowed by injury some in 2012 he’s a tough runner and was really fun to watch. Fellow Big Sky player Rodrick Rumble (WR, Idaho State) looked draftable, he has some big play ability. Nigel Malone (CB, Kansas State) played in a Cover-2 system in college and flashed a nice break on the ball. Sheldon Price (CB, UCLA) is a bigger CB with press man experience.
Jacksonville Jaguars
As a Jags fan, I was actually not quite sure who I wanted with the number two pick in the Draft, but certainly preferred Joeckel to Eric Fisher so in the end was quite relieved the Chiefs took the Central Michigan man when it became clear new GM David Caldwell was going to go tackle. Despite a glaring need, they elected to pass on a QB I’ve never been high on Blaine Gabbert (my 2011 Draft rankings are still on the site) so perhaps I’ve given up on him a bit too quickly. This draft does give Gabbert two new weapons and should ensure he is well protected, but after a nice start I feel it does fall away somewhat.
1. Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M.; Joeckel was my number one rated tackle just. However, I actually had Lane Johnson pushing him not Eric Fisher who I didn’t like as much. So to get my number one tackle with the Chiefs taking another means I feel the Jags came out on top on day one. It was unfortunate for those teams in the top 5 this year as the class was nowhere as good as last year. Joeckel is a relatively safe pick he’s likely to be a long term starter and is a very high character prospect, so the bust factor is a lot less than some top 10 picks. He’s not quite as athletic and therefore comfortable in pass protection as Matt Kalil last year the key area he needs to clean up is keeping his hands up as he sets up in pass protection. Last year Kalil was able to do this effortlessly and it’s why Joeckel isn’t as good. Joeckel is a better run blocker than Kalil was however and he will help open some holes for MJD. A very good player and a solid pick.
2. Johnathan Cyprien FS Florida International. On lists I had seen before the season Cyprien was rated as a late round type, so I actually hadn’t got around to seeing him before the Senior Bowl. After he stood out during practice and the actual game (where he showed nice man coverage skills against TE’s) he was one of my priorities for additional tape study. However, even in a non-AQ conference that tape study wasn’t kind to him and I was left with some questions. The biggest area of concern with him is that he bites hard and often on play action fakes. In the Arkansas State game, they actually picked on him with several fake zone-read runs and then a pass to his man who was wide open. Most concerning was that he kept biting and didn’t learn even after three or four such plays. His tackling was also a little inconsistent. On the plus side, his length and range were very clear to see so he can play a deep centre field role, which might take away the play action fake issue. He’s big enough to play in the box and can also match up against TE’s so the versatility is a plus. So, some concerns but he has significant upside and I liked him better than Matt Elam who the Ravens took the pick before.
3. Dwayne Gratz CB Connecticut. This is where things start to come unstuck and I have a major problem with this pick. I’d seen four or five UConn games and had Blidi Wreh-Wilson ranked miles ahead of Gratz. However, on one major website I kept seeing Gratz ahead of Wreh-Wilson, a gap which widened after the Combine (Gratz ran faster than Wreh-Wilson). So one of the last games I watched was the UConn/Louisville game as a check really, in which Gratz was beaten for two TD’s and Wreh-Wilson had a game winning pick in the third OT my ranking confirmed. While I can see the athletic upside with Gratz, I don’t think he is anywhere near as good of a player as Wreh-Wilson and the fact he will be in division with the Titans really galled me. Gratz is better in zone than in man, which fits the Jags but overall I don’t think his tape was this good and certainly his former team mate and now division rival was much higher on my board. At least I’m not going to be accused of being a homer!
4. Ace Sanders WR South Carolina. Athletically I don’t see the value here. Sanders looked very quick on tape, but his Combine numbers were very poor and indeed were approaching the Freddie Barnes zone (not athletic enough to play in the NFL) and given his tiny build, were even more of a concern. However on tape he looked simply electric so there is a major disconnect between tape speed and workout numbers. He can help in the return game as well as in the slot but although I really liked him on tape, the Combine numbers are nagging at me with him and I think it’s a couple of rounds too early because of that. Perhaps I’m turning into an Al Davis height/weight/speed type
5. Denard Robinson Athlete Michigan. I’m not a fan on conversion prospects perhaps as I like to see at least something before I will stick my neck on the line with such a prospect. Jimmy Graham for example I had ranked higher than most because in that one year of football I could see the natural hands and athletic ability and a Conner Barwin with one year in college at DE that natural pass rush ability. At least I saw Robinson for a couple of games at RB for Michigan while a nerve problem in his elbow prevented him from playing QB. I like the young man it’s clear even from afar he’s a leader and he has dynamic ability with the ball in his hands. I project him more to RB than WR (where he played at the Senior Bowl tough to judge him hands wise as he had limited feeling in his fingers because of the nerve issue). Another luxury pick right after Sanders wouldn’t have been my pick, but he can be a change of pace for MJD and at least offers big play ability.
6. Josh Evans FS Florida. Evans played deep centre field for the Gators allowing Matt Elam to do a variety of things closer to the line of scrimmage. There was some buzz after the Florida pro day that Evans looked the better prospect, but that certainly wasn’t the case from tape. Evans angles and tackling were a concern and he will need to clean that up quickly if he hopes to stick. He was a tough evaluation in terms of TV scouting as he was off the screen much of the time he does have some range and ball skills but without cleaning up the negative plays he’ll struggle to make it.
7a. Jeremy Harris CB New Mexico State. Once DeWayne Walker was appointed as DB’s coach I knew the former New Mexico State Head Coach would bring Harris with him, either as a late rounder or UDFA. Harris is a tall CB, but very wiry so a little added bulk will help him press. I must admit I only saw New Mexico State once this year as they had very little in their senior class and he wasn’t overly tested in that game, so a little tough to judge.
7b. Demetrius McCray CB Appalachian State. Looking at the Seahawks two CB’s (5th rounder and street free agent) I didn’t expect the Jaguars to attack this position early and so it was with a second seventh round CB. McCray is a classic click and close CB he played in a Cover-2 in college and flashed a very nice break on the ball. He has good size, which fits the same system as the Seahawks used last year. He didn’t stand out to a large extent and certainly in 2011 Aaron Mellette gave him some problems in the Elon game. He’s a system fit who wasn’t very high on my general board, but could be the type who out performs that because his skill set matches the defense.
Top UDFA’s
Matt Scott (QB, Arizona) is the pick of the Jags class and one could argue he’s the favourite to be the starter! Rated as a top 100 talent by many, a history of concussions may well have been the reason he wasn’t drafted. He’s bulked up in the off season and can run the zone-read, thus seen as this years Russell Wilson by some. Jordan Rodgers (QB, Vanderbilt) is the younger brother of the Packers Aaron he lacks the arm strength of his brother, but has movement skills and some talent. Ryan Otten (TE/HB, San Jose State) was good enough to be at the Senior Bowl he needs to get bigger and stronger but could make the roster as a move HB/slot TE. Paul Hazel (DE, Western Michigan) is an undersized college DE that fits the system he gave Eric Fisher some problems in the Central Michigan game and was part of the reason I didn’t like Fisher as much as most others. T.J. Barnes (NT, Georgia Tech) is a huge man who has a knack of batting passes down at the line, but must learn to play lower. Lonnie Pryor (FB, Florida State) might be best in a one back offense he can do a little bit of everything, but isn’t big enough to be your old school short neck FB, not that they exist anymore… Abry Jones (DT, Georgia) was a college 3-4 DE who missed the second half of the season with injury I thought Georgia missed him and he could stick. Jamal Miles (WR, Arizona State) was lost in a deep WR class, but he could stick as he is a good kick returner. Carson Tinker (LS, Alabama) showed Nick Saban’s attention to detail even his long snapper was good
Tennessee Titans
Outside of two picks (both CB’s), I’m not a fan of this class. However, the value with Wreh-Wilson is so good that it rescues things. It just happens the Titans took players who I never quite connected with, even though in many cases they were ranked highly by one analyst or another.
1. Chance Warmack OG Alabama. I think I was the only person in the world who had Warmack ranked outside the top two guards this year, but I did have Justin Pugh in that guard group and thought he had better tape than the Alabama man. I’m not a huge Warmack fan, he is what he is a big road grader but at times his technique, particularly in pass protection, is poor (too upright). However, in the National Championship game he showed he can get to the second level and he dominated a second round talent in Manti Te’o. I have no problem with taking a guard here, it just so happens I’m not as high on this particularly guard as most others. I would have preferred to have looked to a Larry Warford for this type of prospect rather than spend a very high pick on Warmack.
2. Justin Hunter WR Tennessee. Hunter suffered an ACL tear in 2011 and had an inconsistent 2012. The key issue was drops simply put there were far too many. When Hunter wasn’t involved early in a game he tended to do very little and the excellent Todd Blackledge picked up on that on one ABC broadcast. Against Missouri they made sure they threw the first pass of the game to him and he responded with 9 catches for 141 yards. He is clearly a superb athlete and he eats up the CB’s cushion very quickly, putting stress on them. He needs some work on his routes his curl routes he would just sit, rather than coming back to the QB and making it harder for the CB to close and break up. He has some Torrey Smith about him both in terms of big play ability and some frustrating drops.
3a. Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Connecticut. This pick is terrific value, certainly I wouldn’t have had any problem at all if they’d have taken Wreh-Wilson with their second round pick. One of the higher character prospects in this class, I have no idea why a CB with press ability would still be around in the third round, even in a deep CB class. Having panned my Jaguars for passing on him, it’s obvious that I’m going to praise the Titans for this pick. I felt Wreh-Wilson was better in man coverage however, so from a scheme fit it gives me a slight concern but as long as they let him press, I think he will be just fine (when he’s off the line, he doesn’t look as good). The fact I am not happy at all with my Jags for taking his team mate a few picks before tells you everything you need to know about this young man.
3b. Zaviar Gooden OLB Missouri. Athletically this is the right spot for Gooden, on tape and at the Combine it was clear he was one of the more athletic LB’s in this class. However, after the initial he can move on tape study, I was left wanting much more. He gets swallowed up by blockers too easily and despite having excellent speed, he didn’t make plays with it as someone like Lavonte David did last year for example. He should be able to contribute in the nickel, but I don’t know if he’ll ever be anything more. A round or two too soon for me.
4. Brian Schwenke C California. Schwenke was a favourite of Mike Mayock and the Cal man did indeed look pretty good at the Senior Bowl. However, when I looked back at my notes from the Ohio State game I couldn’t ever rank this guy super high as big Johnathan Hankins (round 2 Giants) destroyed him. He did show a better anchor at the Senior Bowl than in that Ohio State game, but I think the concerns from tape saw him go lower than Mayock predicted. He is a tough/high effort prospect and the type that will stick on a roster for many years, but I think he may struggle a little early in his career with top power.
5. Lavar Edwards DE LSU. Last year LSU backup CB Ron Brooks was a fourth round pick (Bills) and despite only having one start in 2011, I really liked him. The same can’t be said of Edwards who was behind Barkevious Mingo and Sam Montgomery. Even at the Senior Bowl I didn’t come away with a different opinion and with only average Combine numbers, I thought he was just another guy. I can’t say I would have touched him this high (or indeed at all), so this is not a pick I like outside of some upside as he gets more experience.
6. Khalid Wooten CB Nevada. Wooten was overshadowed by a favourite of mine, Duke Williams, in the Nevada secondary but he has talent and is a nice system fit. He’s a bigger CB and is best when he can get up and press, which fits the Titans system. Some teams may have thought of him at safety, but I would imagine he will stay at CB. He was picked on a bit in the Bowl game, having a number of passes caught in front of him but he did look better when he had to turn and run with his man. Like Wreh-Wilson he looks far more comfortable in press coverage, so expect the Titans to do that often with these two draft picks on boards.
7. Daimion Stafford SS Nebraska. Played deep centre field, so like Josh Evans above quite a tough evaluation. He flashed some downhill ability and he can hit but he must learn to wrap as he will go for the shoulder hit without wrapping. I questioned his ball skills in the Wisconsin game and in the Michigan game he couldn’t handle man coverage responsibilities. However, in this Cover-2 system he looks like a decent fit he has good size and should push for time on special teams initially but I like Markelle Martin from last year much more.
Top UDFA’s
The UK’s own Tom Wort (LB, Oklahoma) didn’t have a great 2012 season, but declared early for the Draft anyway poor Combine numbers/durability concerns saw him go undrafted. A guy who will throw his body around, he should push for a roster spot on special teams. Stefphon Jefferson (RB, Nevada) was another early entry who went undrafted he was productive in the pistol offense, but runs too upright and has had fumble problems. Jack Doyle (TE/HB, Western Kentucky) played in a Stanford/49ers style offense, so was a move TE he is a good receiver and has a chance to stick.
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