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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – 4-3 DE and 3-4 OLB Rankings
by Paul Emery
April 18th 2013
For new readers it’s worth quickly going through how I do things. If you are looking for a consensus ranking or something that copies from elsewhere, then this isn’t the place! I watched 278 games this year, I like to watch full games rather than the cut up prospect clips on YouTube (which I do use to break ties or where I can’t get full games), so I can get into the flow of the game and really understand when a big play is needed etc. I try and watch the top prospects at least 6 times, the middle rounders 3 to 5 and the later rounders at least a couple of times. I rate each game I see, work out an average and then build in the Combine/Pro Day numbers (see my two Combine articles).
These rankings are therefore my personal position boards and are in no way meant to predict who will be taken first in the Draft. Someone might be taken in the top 10, but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think he will make it in the NFL after all there are busts every year, so why shouldn’t rankings differ?! I’m sure NFL teams boards vary far more than the media believe.
I have no contacts in the NFL and have kept it that way on purpose so their opinions don’t change my mind. I always trust what I see on tape. However, this does mean I am not party to which players are character or medical red flags outside of what is in the media. I take into account medical to a degree, but will ignore character red flags outside of a mention in the text as I don’t know these prospects personally and it’s unfair to judge them (e.g. last year I had Janoris Jenkins as my number one CB). With that said, let’s get started with the offensive tackle class.
I’ve decided not to divide this group into two distinct groups, mainly because most will be asked to do both things at the next level. This is basically the pass rusher group but I do place a high importance on the ability to set an edge in the run game, I think it’s a big part of the answer to stopping the zone read (the other being penetration inside to blow up the mesh point).
This group was looking strong, but injury concerns and a couple of very poor workouts have left the group a little like last years group with questions at the top end. However, it is extremely deep and I think there will be prospects taken on day three that will make it.
Tier One
1. Cornellius Carradine Florida State. Carradine was the best player in this group I saw on tape and with question marks everywhere else even with his medical concern (torn ACL November 2012) he still takes the top spot. Carradine is more of a long player who does a fantastic job of getting low than a fast twitch speed rush guy. His only weakness is that he gets a bit high initially, but he can then drop his hips to get under people in an Aldon Smith way. He’s very strong with a punch that can shed blockers and he is fantastic setting the edge in the run game. He took full advantage of the injury to Brandon Jenkins in his only year as a full time starter. A top 5 talent with only a medical question mark and he appears well on the way back, due to workout just before the Draft.
2. Barkevious Mingo* LSU. Mingo is a complex evaluation. When he cuts it loose and flies off the edge he looks like an elite talent, but he just wasn’t consistent. Now, I get that against Johnny Football in the A&M; game he’s going to stay under control so as not to leave a hole for the Heisman Trophy winner to take off but there were games where he wasn’t up against a mobile QB and he did very little. It almost looked like at times he was trying to show he could be something more than just a speed rusher. However, despite some decent hand placement he’s just not big/strong enough to shed blockers and he got eaten up easily too often. Until he gets bigger/stronger he’s a speed rusher only, but that’s OK when you are as explosive of an athlete as he is. I think he just needs to be cut loose consistently to be a double digit sack guy.
Tier Two
3. Jarvis Jones* Georgia. Probably the most difficult evaluation in this whole Draft class. Has a medical question mark (spinal stenosis, USC didn’t clear him medically and let him transfer). Elected not to workout at the Combine and then laid an egg at his pro day. He ran in the low 4.9’s and his overall number on my scale was the second lowest in the LB group (above only Tom Wort). However, the real problem is that on tape he looked like a high first round pick. I didn’t pick him to run a 4.4 40 but I expected his shuttle and cone to be good as he looks very quick, but that wasn’t the case. He’s not the biggest, but makes every effort to set the edge in the run game. In the Alabama game he was swallowed up too often, that’s something you’ll have to live with at his size. Great tape, poor workout and the lingering medical question (slight frame means he might struggle to stay healthy, missed two games in 2012 due to niggling injuries) means it’s very difficult to rank him and to know just when he’ll come off the board.
4. Damontre Moore* Texas A&M.; Moore’s Combine workout wasn’t as bad as Jones pro day, but it wasn’t good either. While he ran slower than the Georgia man at least he showed explosion in the broad and vertical jumps (both well above average) and had a slightly above average shuttle time. Again, much like Jones I wasn’t expecting a super fast 40 time, but that slow (mid 4.9’s) is a concern. Playing at OLB in a 3-4 in 2011, he really came on as a 4-3 DE in 2012. He took over some games and looked a dominant player in the best conference in college football. Oddly he looked strong enough to keep blockers off him more than Mingo, but he didn’t put up many bench press reps at the Combine. He has a nice rip move and looked explosive off the edge. He might have been higher based on tape, but the Combine numbers do drag his stock down slightly. It must be remembered he is only 20 years of age, so he still has time to grow on and off the field.
Tier Three
5. Datone Jones UCLA. Jones played in a 3-4 DE this year and in the nickel was one of 2 DT’s. I didn’t think 3-4 DE necessarily suited him and I very much see him as a 4-3 DE and nickel DT rusher. He had an excellent Senior Bowl week and a good Combine workout. His best asset is his quickness, which really shows up inside rushing the passer. He has a nice rip move and should be able to contribute in the nickel right away. In the run game he’s a little out of control at times, his quickness is on display, but he’s doesn’t always diagnose, just flying upfield. I feel he’ll be best in a 4-3 at DE, which is where he played in the Senior Bowl and looked one of the better players in Mobile.
6. Corey Lemonier* – Auburn. Lemonier’s stock seems to be all over the place, but once you look past the lack of production (5.5 sacks and 5 came in the first four games of the season) he looks like he’s almost there and with a little pro coaching I think he has huge potential. He’s an excellent athlete, running one of the faster times at the Combine in his group. I didn’t think on tape he looked super strong, but his bench number was impressive (27 and he has long arms). Maybe not being in a Bowl game gave him more time to get stronger, but I thought his hand placement and bend was there, but he struggled to get off blocks. Has a little boom or bust about him, but I take the boom.
7. Dion Jordan Oregon. Jordan was very difficult to scout for a number of reasons. Firstly it’s very hard to read the numbers on many of Oregon’s multiple uniforms and he has a similar body type to one of the other Oregon OLB’s. Secondly he rotates heavily, so he’s not always on the field plus with Oregon often up big by half time he often only played part of one half. Lastly, he’s often split out over the slot WR so there are limited opportunities to watch him rush the passer. For a big man with his comfort in space, perhaps I’m a little low with my ranking, but I’m just not comfortable with him any higher on my board. When he did rush the passer he showed quickness and explosion, but he must continue to work on getting low. I’m not sure he has a counter when his initial quickness doesn’t work and that lack of experience rushing the passer was telling. Has limited experience getting off O-Lineman blocks in the run game tended to only have to deal with WR’s. If you believe the buzz he’s a top 10 pick, but will need the right system.
Tier Four
8. Ezekiel Ansah Brigham Young. Ansah is relatively new to football and basically has only one year of production. For someone with limited experience I thought his hand use was excellent. He’s a very powerful player and his initial punch is just naturally powerful. He played 3-4 DE and nickel NT for BYU and I think that’s part of the reason why he struggled in the pit at the Senior Bowl being out there in space on the tackles outside shoulder probably felt alien to him. He has as much upside as any prospect in the Draft and while athletically he has potential to be a dominant edge rusher, he has zero experience in that role, so he will need time and does carry risk. I might be more comfortable if he had bulked up with a view to playing 3-4 DE, I think he looks more natural there.
9. Alex Okafor Texas. A little inconsistent, but there were games when he just took things over the Bowl game being the best example. He doesn’t have the best workout numbers, but they aren’t as bad as Moore or Jones. He’s more power than speed, so his 21 bench press reps were somewhat of a red flag for the type of player he is. He showed the ability to get under people and win the leverage battle and that’s more the type of player he is, so he must work on being more consistent. In the Baylor game for example he was very quiet outside of an offside penalty on a 4th and 4. Struggled with an ankle injury later in the year, but did play with it. Got healthy for the Bowl game and had 4.5 sacks. Has talent, just needs more consistency.
Tier Five
10. Brandon Jenkins – Florida State. Missed the vast majority of the season with a lisfranc injury. Took part in the FSU pro day but ran poorly and I don’t believe he was 100% healthy. Prior to the injury he looked very fast off the edge perhaps a bit of a one trick pony with his speed rush, but he looked like a first round talent. This is a tough evaluation as I don’t know how far along he is in his recovery (medical details have been kept top secret the past couple of years). Likely won’t be drafted until day three, partly because of the pro day numbers but prior to that looked like he was going to be a very high pick. Another tough evaluation and on the basis I don’t think he was 100% at his pro day I’m going on 2011 tape.
11. Bjoern Werner* Florida State. Werner enjoyed a 13 sack season, but had large portions of the season where he did nothing. Five of his sacks came against Murray State and Savannah State and then another 3 against Wake Forest and Maryland (no Bowl game for either team). So only 1.5 sacks against Miami and his 3.5 against Florida were against top opposition and he was shut out against the rest of the ACC and Northern Illinois in the Bowl game. Werner has a high motor, but at times it’s not enough to get him pressure. He has short arms and his 10 yard split time at the Combine was one of the slowest in the DE class. He really struggled to set the edge in the run game and the difference in this area between he and Carradine was really noticeable. He will benefit from pro coaching as he’s still learning the game, but overall I’ve not been high on him all year so he comes in as the third best pro prospect in this group from Florida State.
12. Rufus Johnson – Tarleton State. A small school version of Cornellius Carradine, but must get stronger. Has a nice frame and does a nice job of getting under people to win the leverage battle. Works hard to set the edge and was able to do so at his level of play. Has a high motor, will make plays away from him with his hustle. Relies perhaps a little too much on his inside pass rush move, it was very effective in Division 2 just because he was able to use his length and power to keep blockers off him. Reads the game well won’t fly blindly up the field on draws. Hasn’t been completely consistent in his career, but somewhere on day three I’d make sure I took this young man.
13. Quanterus Smith Western Kentucky. Smith gave Alabama’s D.J. Fluker more problems than anyone I saw this year, but his level of play was not consistently at this level and it’s why he’s lower than anyone who saw that game might think. He tore his ACL in November, but unlike Carradine there is no indication that he will be able to workout before the Draft. Flashes the ability to dip his inside shoulder and turn the corner. Struggles more when his initial move doesn’t work. Did very little against Jason Weaver in the Southern Mississippi game Weaver isn’t a D.J. Fluker level talent, but I would spend a day three pick on him. Not the quickest twitch guy, but has a smoothness to him. Talented, but inconsistent.
Tier Six
14. Margus Hunt SMU. A former shot put and discus star, the Estonian native originally came to SMU on a track scholarship. But when that program was canned, he elected to give football a try. Enjoyed early success with his kick blocking ability (he’s 6’8). Took over and dominated his Bowl game in 2011 and 2012, but his tape outside of that is not always great. Looks very raw, plays too upright and just wins with raw power must learn to play lower. Despite being so tall, he doesn’t have grapevine arms, so not sure he can two gap (not that many teams do so). A classic boom or bust guy, a unique athlete but needs work.
15. Chase Thomas Stanford. Thomas is another difficult evaluation. He has some really good tape, but had some games where he was pretty much invisible, including the Rose Bowl. He didn’t have a great week at the Senior Bowl (although playing 4-3 LB he was not in his comfort zone, having played in a college 3-4) and then did not test well at the Combine. I think part of the story is the fact he has very short arms, so when he came up against longer OT’s he struggled to get into them and then shed the block, which is how he wins. Perhaps he’s a little too high rankings wise, but I do like his motor. Could possibly move to weakside ILB in a 3-4.
16. Walter Stewart Cincinnati. A major medical question mark. At one point it appeared he had retired from the sport, but he was at the Combine (although he wasn’t cleared to workout). He did take part in the Cincinnati pro day (after signing a waiver) and ran in the high 4.6’s, was good in the explosion drills (vertical 37.5/Broad 10′ 3) but he didn’t change directions that well in the cone and only put up 16 reps of the bench press. On tape he showed his quickness off the edge both from DE and OLB. He has some experience dropping in space generally in zone coverage but a little man to man where signs were encouraging. He plays a little high at times and can therefore be neutralised a little too easily. Some have said he’s a first round pick minus the medical, but I’ve only dropped him two or three spots on this basis.
17. Sam Montgomery* LSU. In many ways Montgomery is Bjoern Werner minus the high motor. He looks like a long guy, but when measured at the Combine he actually has relatively short arms. He did not test out that well at the Combine. His hand placement is very good and promises much but he rarely, if ever, does anything with this advantage. He’s a slow twitch guy usually the last defensive lineman to move. There is some production, but there are more questions than answers from his tape study. He had 8 sacks in 2012 all against good opposition, but I don’t see anything special about him.
18. William Gholston* Michigan State. The cousin of former New York Jet bust Vernon. Had flashes of day two talent on tape, but was not consistent and then did not test out well at the Combine. He flashes speed off the edge he can get low and turn the corner, but he’s not consistent with it. There wasn’t much speed on show at the Combine, where his 10 yard split time was one of the slowest in the DE group. At other times he plays too high and it’s then too easy to get under a tall man. He will often get into his blocker and get some push, but will be bent at the waist not the knees so NFL lineman will probably just throw him to the ground. He does chase plays away from him, but has too much inconsistency to his game and had poor Combine numbers to think he’s going before day three.
19. John Simon Ohio State. Simon is a high motor college player who missed the Combine with a shoulder injury. His pro day numbers were good (low 4.6’s 40) and indeed he ran faster than he looked on tape. He’s low to the ground anyway and adds to that advantage with the ability to dip his inside shoulder when rushing the passer. He presents a very small target and a big tackle must get really low to deal with him. He has some different moves when rushing the passer a dip and rip, a spin, a bull rush, a shake and bake (looks like a RB in the hole) and an inside move. It was interesting the Steelers worked him out at his Pro Day as he fits the type they look for shorter than many teams like and some power. A high motor prospect who tested out better than I figured, so may go a little earlier than this ranking suggests, but on a general board his tape just wasn’t good enough and he doesn’t have the length to make up for it.
Tier Seven
20. Darrington Sentimore* – Tennessee. Rather surprised me when I did some work on him he gave D.J. Fluker some problems in the Alabama game. Versatile prospect has experience at 4-3 and 3-4 DE as well as some DT in the nickel. Conditioning looked to be an issue has quite a soft middle and looks heavier than his listed 288 lbs. Seemed to play better at the start of each half and then fade but that’s something that can be corrected. Might be best in a 3-4.
21. Michael Buchanan Illinois. Buchanan had 7.5 sacks in 2011 but like the majority of the Illinois team he struggled in 2012 with only 4.5 sacks. Checked in at 255 lbs at the Combine, but looked more 230 on tape. Very thin lower body, with ankles that look like a CB. Just can’t set an edge in the run game got abused in the Arizona State game particularly. Flashes of speed off the edge see him make this article his 10 yard split was one of the fastest at the Combine. Will only suit certain systems though.
22. Devin Taylor South Carolina. Based on the Shrine Game, where he was the best player in the actual game, and a top Combine workout he should be ranked much higher. However, he has some decidedly average tape and considering Jadeveon Clowney drew all the double teams he should have produced more. He’s a tall prospect (6′ 7) and must play lower. He struggled to even deal with RB’s chipping him. He does work hard but didn’t show the athletic ability shown in shorts at the Combine on the field that is until the Shrine Game. The last player I really liked at the Shrine Game was Greg Hardy, so perhaps I should push him up my board as I did with the former Ole Miss man…but I’d already seen something in Hardy that I didn’t in Taylor.
23. Cornelius Washington Georgia. Looking through my notes of Washington it’s basically the same has a nice frame but just doesn’t make any impact. He tended to go too wide with his initial steps when rushing the passer, so he needs to tighten that up and use his length to keep blockers off. He has all the athletic ability in the world, but needs a ton of work.
24. Malliciah Goodman Clemson. Goodman did improve as the year went on, but it wasn’t until the Bowl game that he had a top 100 level game. He has very long arms (36 3/8), but outside of the frame did not work out superbly well at the Combine. Doesn’t look like a fast twitch player, often slow to move. Disciplined on the backside, but perhaps was too concerned with this and didn’t cut it loose enough. Despite his arm length advantage, he did give up the edge at times on plays at him. I think there is something there, but there’s not enough here to rank him higher.
Tier Eight
25. Trevardo Williams Connecticut. Double digit sacks in each of the last two years, when seeing that one might think he’s way too low, particularly as his 10 yard split time at the Combine was excellent. However I saw five games and only one (Louisville) did he jump out and impress. Justin Pugh completely dominated him in the Syracuse game. Shorter prospect with very short arms. Productive, but looks like a one trick pony the speed rush.
26. Lerentee McCray Florida. Was due to work out in the Sharrif Floyd pro day on 22 March, but I haven’t seen any results for this (and I’ve looked extensively, more for Jordan Reed admittedly it does have to be said that getting pro day results the last two years has been very difficult). Only had 3 sacks, but did flash some speed off the edge. Looks powerful, comes off the edge with some pop. Rotated a fair amount, so was always fresh. Just flashes, but I think there’s something there.
27. Travis Long Washington State. Productive with 8.5 sacks in 2012, but tore his ACL in November (two other players in this list did the same, not a good month) and has yet to workout. Didn’t look like a top athlete coming off the edge. Did show a nice spin move, but much of his pressures came from hustle plays.
28. Mike Catapano Princeton. I wasn’t overly impressed on tape, but his pro day numbers were excellent and he’s on the higher character prospects in this class, so he deserves a mention. The main thing for him is to learn to play lower gets bolt upright off the snap and when he tries to dip/turn the corner he often loses balance, so he’s waist bending not knee bending. High motor and got away with it using power at a lower level of play, but won’t be able to do this as much at the next level.
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