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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – 4-3 LB and 3-4 ILB Rankings
by Paul Emery
April 18th 2013
For new readers it’s worth quickly going through how I do things. If you are looking for a consensus ranking or something that copies from elsewhere, then this isn’t the place! I watched 278 games this year, I like to watch full games rather than the cut up prospect clips on YouTube (which I do use to break ties or where I can’t get full games), so I can get into the flow of the game and really understand when a big play is needed etc. I try and watch the top prospects at least 6 times, the middle rounders 3 to 5 and the later rounders at least a couple of times. I rate each game I see, work out an average and then build in the Combine/Pro Day numbers (see my two Combine articles).
These rankings are therefore my personal position boards and are in no way meant to predict who will be taken first in the Draft. Someone might be taken in the top 10, but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think he will make it in the NFL after all there are busts every year, so why shouldn’t rankings differ?! I’m sure NFL teams boards vary far more than the media believe.
I have no contacts in the NFL and have kept it that way on purpose so their opinions don’t change my mind. I always trust what I see on tape. However, this does mean I am not party to which players are character or medical red flags outside of what is in the media. I take into account medical to a degree, but will ignore character red flags outside of a mention in the text as I don’t know these prospects personally and it’s unfair to judge them (e.g. last year I had Janoris Jenkins as my number one CB). With that said, let’s get started with the offensive tackle class.
I’m going to group any LB not considered a 3-4 OLB into this article so basically anyone that isn’t a pure edge pass rusher. Many guys will be able to play multiple positions so trying to slot them at this stage just seems like a waste of time. This is not a great group, there are some decent inside guys, but not so much outside.
Tier One
1. Kevin Minter* LSU. Perhaps a little shorter than ideal and not as good as others at the Combine, but this young man can play. The best player on a very talented defense. Highly productive and consistent, just makes plays. Very good read and react linebacker, plays faster than he timed because of it. Looks very comfortable in coverage and speed didn’t look like an issue. He will gamble and come under blocks but like Lavonte David last year he seems to get away with it but he might not want to do that against the likes of Chris Johnson. In this class I think he’s a first round talent and a day one starter.
2. Michael Mauti Penn State. Has some fantastic tape but is a medical question mark. Has two ACL surgeries in his past and hurt his knee late in the year, which has prevented him from working out for scouts. Likely a day three pick because of the medical. A leader off the field, really galvanised the locker room during all the scandals. Really stepped up to put his money where his mouth is on the field, led vocally and by example. Moves laterally very smoothly, doesn’t over pursue and doesn’t miss tackles takes correct angles. Does a nice job of dropping his hips to get off blocks, refuses to stay blocked fights hard with his hands. Looks good in zone coverage, can flip his hips and read the QB. Also looked comfortable in man coverage. A high motor prospect who can also help on special teams coverage units. If he’s healthy could be the steal of the Draft.
Tier Two
3. Manti Te’o Notre Dame. Te’o was playing at a tier one type level, but his play dropped a little later in the year and culminated in his worst showing of the year in the biggest game against Alabama. In that game when one on one with big Chance Warmack he lost about every one on one battle and he also missed some tackles. Dropped some weight as a senior and improved in coverage generally in zone, there may be a question if he’s athletic enough to handle man. Generally an explosive tackler. Plays on his toes, reads the game well and when he sees it then usually good things happen. It seems the whole catfish scandal was down to his naivety, there are worse things you can be this may have affected his play down the stretch.
Tier Three
4. Sio Moore Connecticut. Highly versatile prospect who lined up all over the field. Played DE in the nickel and was productive (8.5 sacks), also lined up outside over slot WR’s at times as well as the traditional weakside and strongside LB spots. Very comfortable in space and in coverage. Showed some press skills against TE’s which will appeal big time. Shows speed and the ability to get low rushing the passer could possibly play in a 3-4, particularly one which asks him to drop in space more. The only weakness is that he struggled to get off blocks at times, so might be best suited on the weakside initially but his coverage skills say strongside.
5. Gerald Hodges Penn State. Played better and better as the year moved forward. Often in space, lined up over the slot WR. Generally used in zone coverage, but showed the ability to press quick slot WR’s at the line. Beats blockers with quick feet avoids getting hung up where he can, but then does struggle if someone gets into him. Looked athletic and reads the game very well diagnoses and plays with good discipline. Did not test out quite as well as expected at the Combine, but should be able to help as a nickel LB right away.
6. Khaseem Greene Rutgers. Inconsistent tape had games where he looked like he should be two or three spots higher but equally games where he didn’t do much. As expected from a former safety he does look very comfortable in coverage, so he should be able to help right away in the nickel. He’s athletic enough to fake a blitz off the edge and then bail, getting very good depth quickly. He looks very good moving laterally, but must improve in terms of getting off blocks. He lost every one on one battle with Brian Winters in the Kent State game. He needs to be a little quicker with his read and react at times it was slow and although his athletic ability got him out of jail at the college level, that won’t be the case in the NFL. Has talent, but needs to be more consistent.
7. Keith Pough Howard. A difficult guy to rank. Has excellent tape, but tested relatively poorly at the Combine. Played strongside LB and has long arms to keep blockers off, but lack of long speed may show up in coverage. Looks better in zone coverage, where his hips look loose but didn’t look as comfortable when asked to backpedal in man coverage. Vocal leader and has a high motor. Shows the ability to set an edge not afraid to stick his face in the fan. Missed one game through suspension (textbook allowance issue that forced a suspension of all athletics in March 2012 and 14 players in total were suspended between one and three games) and struggled with an ankle sprain late in the year. Performed well at the Shrine Game, but Combine time dropped his stock. One of my must have players on day three.
Tier Four
8. Alec Ogletree* – Georgia. Missed the first four games of the season due to suspension and also was charged with DUI just before the Combine. Highly inconsistent tape. Has the talent to take over a game (Florida and fourth quarter of the Bowl game for example) but doesn’t always play to that level. Gives you game changing plays or nothing, there doesn’t seem to be a middle ground. Really struggles to get off blocks, might be best in a 4-3 on the weakside needs a good fit behind a big defensive line that can eat blockers. Poor read and react player makes his flash plays as a one gap athletic player. Often so slow to read and move that he has a blocker on him and then it’s all over. I had questions in coverage, although he is a former safety so that’s a concern. Boom or bust and that’s before you take into account the off the field stuff.
9. Kevin Reddick North Carolina. On a team that has produced a number of Draft picks in recent years, being a four year starter is impressive. But unlike Zach Brown last year, he didn’t test out that well at the Combine although his workout was slightly above average. When he sees it and comes downhill he looks very good, also makes plays flashing up into gaps on pre-determined plays. Not consistent with that read though, takes too long to diagnose and often gets hung up on blocks. Has short arms and indeed at times he just seems to give up when a blocker gets on him will even resort to just putting his shoulder into a blocker. Will come up and take on a FB in the hole though but it’s just a collision and there’s no technique to win. Did line up at DE some in the nickel, but didn’t show a great deal in that area. Did have some solid games, but will need to be kept clean.
Tier Five
10. Sean Porter Texas A&M.; Played OLB in a 3-4 in 2011 and struggled at times changing to 4-3 LB in 2012. At 229 lbs with short arms, he does not project back to the 3-4 that well as a pro. Will be best on the weakside for a team that likes to blitz their LB’s. Lacks any kind of anchor and will get washed upfield too easily. Struggles to get off blocks. Will also struggle picking his way through traffic at times, clearly is more comfortable up at the line. Had 9.5 sacks in 2011 and looks best coming off the edge but body type doesn’t necessarily suit this role at the next level. May find a niche as a nickel pass rusher, but needs the right landing spot.
11. Arthur Brown Kansas State. When Brown sees a play then generally he looks really good. He has good speed and can prevent RB’s turning the corner on outside runs. However, his read and react is generally poor. He’ll also take false steps on misdirection plays, of which there are many in both college and pro football. Even his speed couldn’t get him out of jail against Oregon on numerous occasions for example. I’m not sure his instincts will ever improve, so I’d be very reluctant to look at him in the first round, where many rate him.
12. Jamie Collins Southern Mississippi. Scheme diverse, could also play outside in a 3-4. He has experience at DE in the nickel and had 10 sacks in 2012. Played the ‘Bandit’ position for Southern Miss. Relies on his speed off the edge, he can get low turning the corner but he must develop a counter when a blocker gets into him. Has some experience dropping into space, which will be a positive for some systems. Struggled to get off blocks particularly in the Western Kentucky game, which is a Stanford style running offense. He really got worn down in the game. Has a nice upper body, but needs more strength in the lower body to help him anchor. Interesting prospect, but has inconsistencies.
13. Zavier Gooden Missouri. Moves extremely well, looks really good in space when you watch him and you immediately think top 100 talent. However, outside of that there were struggles particularly in terms of getting off blocks lacks bulk and has short arms. Looks like a weakside LB only looked OK in coverage against a RB, but struggled physically against TE’s (Mychal Rivera had a big day against him in the Tennessee game). However, did look comfortable against even WR’s so can certainly help in the nickel with some care in terms of matchups. Will take false steps and bite on play action fakes. Must be kept clean otherwise he’ll really struggle, but should be able to find a niche in the pass happy NFL.
Tier Six
14. DeVonte Holloman South Carolina. Former SS, took over from Antonio Allen (7th round 2012, Jets) as the Spur LB, which meant he was over the WR in 3 or 4 WR sets and the SLB in regular sets. Generally played in zone coverage, where he looked comfortable. Did not look as good when asked to cover man to man however. Has decent size at 243 lbs, but looked overmatched in the box struggling to get off blocks which was also the case in the Shrine Game. His experience in coverage will help him, but for a zone team only.
15. Jonathan Bostic Florida. Physical and aggressive player who is not afraid to take on blockers in the hole. Unfortunately he struggles to get off those blocks, which prevents him from being ranked high despite a top Combine showing. Has decent arm length (33), but didn’t use that to his advantage, so needs some refinement. Should help right away on special teams, he does have experience in that role. Has athletic upside and plays with NFL intensity, but needs work.
16. Jelani Jenkins* – Florida. Struggled with injuries in 2012 (thumb, foot and hamstring), but elected to declare early anyway lacks any kind of momentum and is likely a day three prospect as a result. Has a high motor and makes some plays, but will get swallowed up by bigger blocks. I don’t have a great many notes on him as he was always injured, but I was not overly impressed.
Tier Seven
17. Kiko Alonso Oregon. Played part of the season with a cast following a wrist injury and has had durability problems in his college career (including a torn ACL). Had a DUI charge in 2010 and then an arrest on charges of burglary, criminal mischief and criminal trespass in 2011 (pleaded guilty to misdemeanour charges to avoid jail time), so carries off the field baggage. Looks very good in zone coverage, gets nice depth very quickly and might be best as a Cover-2 MLB. Struggles to get off blocks, generally can only peel back off them, so any subsequent tackles are after good gains. Will blitz frequently and times these up nicely. Doesn’t wow you and as he struggles to get off blocks (short arms), so won’t be for everyone. I’ve struggled to connect with him.
18. Nico Johnson Alabama. An old school two down 3-4 inside linebacker. Rotated with C.J. Mosley, but playing time was reduced later in the year as Mosley took on more of a role in the base 3-4 defense. A downhill thumper who flashes ability to get off blocks. Looks limited in man coverage, if he wasn’t trusted with this in college what are the chances he’s successful with this at the next level?
19. A.J. Klein Iowa State. Was on his way to a highly positive Combine workout (at 250 lbs ran in the mid 4.6’s), but injured his knee which cost him some momentum. He does seem to be getting that back, so could be a surprise top 100 pick which would be too rich for me. Played in the middle to start the season, but moved to the weakside after Jake Knott was hurt. Struggled to set an edge despite having good size arms are slightly shorter than ideal. Inconsistent with his read and react especially against Tulsa in the Bowl game, where I thought he was poor. Best suited to a one gap system where he can use his speed and size to fly downhill. Should be good on special teams.
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