NCAA Scouting Pre-Season Draft Ponderings by Paul Emery August 27th 2012
Another year, another set of prospects to evaluate before the Draft in April. The main bulk of the evaluation process is film study, but the post season process (All-Star games, Combine and Pro Day workouts) will see some risers and fallers. I’ve done a fair amount of off season work and here are a few notes on prospects to watch this year to get things started.
Top Prospects
The consensus top senior prospect is USC’s QB Matt Barkley. With Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III coming out early, he would have been the third QB off the board in 2012, so decided to come back for his senior year. He’s a very polished prospect but isn’t the biggest and lacks a real gun of an arm so quite how much he will benefit from the extra year, I don’t know. Certainly a raw talent like Logan Thomas (Virginia Tech) could go before him should he continue to develop and then decide to come out early. However, if a West coast offense team gets the first pick in the Draft, they may prefer Barkley.
My off season tape study favourite though is Alex Okafor, a defensive end from Texas (pictured right) . He reminds me some of Aldon Smith, which can only be a good thing. Perhaps slightly inconsistent in his play but he has long arms, knows how to use them and will appeal to both 3-4 and 4-3 teams. Some of the attention may be taken by his bookend team mate Jackson Jeffcoat, but for me Okafor looks like being a very high pick.
Deep Defensive End Class
Indeed, the defensive end class looks much deeper than the 2012 class, where teams waited until the second half of the first round before rolling the dice in April. Brandon Jenkins (Florida State) is a speed rusher who has been highly productive. He may be best suited to a 3-4, but as the Seahawks showed in April with the Bruce Irvin pick there’s a place high in the Draft for undersized 4-3 pass rushers, particularly in the pass happy NFL.
Michigan’s Craig Roh isn’t the athlete Jenkins is, but he understands leverage he gets under his man and causes real problems. He can set an edge in the run game and although he might not be a first round pick, he looks like he can be an NFL starter. Ohio State’s John Simon is another who isn’t a quick twitch guy off the edge but he has a great motor and refuses to be denied in his attempts to get to the ball. He’s certainly fun to watch.
A prospect with one of the more interesting back stories in this class is SMU’s Margus Hunt. An Estonian native, he initially came to the States to work with a shot and discus coach. He only started playing football in 2009, but has shown flashes of top ability. He’s 6’8 and must continue to work on playing lower but he’s a unique athlete and is already one to watch for the Combine. South Carolina’s Devin Taylor is another tall prospect who needs to play lower. He’s made some plays on a talented defensive line, but may be somewhat over-rated.
A couple of sleepers to watch in this deep group are Malliciah Goodman (Clemson) and Walter Stewart (Cincinnati). Goodman has been overshadowed by Da’Quan Bowers and Andre Branch (both second rounders), but Goodman could well be next up. He’s not the fastest off the ball, but flashes the ability to get low and cause problems. Back in 2009 I had Cincinnati’s Connor Barwin as my number one 3-4 outside linebacker, so going back to the Bearcats for another pass rusher might not be a bad idea as that pick turned out to be a good one! Stewart is a former linebacker who recorded six sacks in his first year at end he could well be poised for a breakout year.
Top Receivers
For European readers, if they are going to subscribe to ESPN Player then a game in week one I would highly recommend is Elon at North Carolina (for US readers, the game is on espn3). The game may not be close, but keep an eye out for Elon wide receiver Aaron Mellette. Rams second rounder Brian Quick came out of the same conference, but I like Mellette far more he looks more athletic and runs better routes than Quick and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him go in the first round if he plays as he did in 2011. Certainly Mellette is far and away the top small school prospect this year.
In April, Arkansas had 3 WR’s drafted (Joe Adams, Jarius Wright and Greg Childs), so one can understand that Cobi Hamilton’s production to date has not been great. This year could well be a breakout year for Hamilton as returning QB Tyler Wilson will look for him (and tight end Chris Gragg) far more than last year. Hamilton is a natural hands catcher and has the speed to get deep. Despite a change of Head Coach, a Petrino (Bobby’s brother Paul) will still be running the offense, so there’s no change of system to be concerned about.
Another sleeper to watch is Texas transfer Dan Buckner now at Arizona. He backed up Juron Criner last year, but will start this year with a senior QB (another sleeper to watch Matt Scott) who he should have some chemistry with. Buckner started one game last year when Criner underwent an appendectomy and had a very good game expect more of the same this year.
Trendy Tight End
The tight end position has enjoyed a real renaissance in the NFL and young players like Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski will see teams in this copy cat league looking for their own versions. Unfortunately, like the 2012 Draft, it’s not a great class. Two prospects have caught my eye though. Michael Williams is not the typical Alabama HB type prospect (e.g. Brad Smelley, round 7 Browns) at 6’6, 269 lbs. He’s not been that productive as a receiver but looks to be a smooth athlete with natural hands. Also a decent blocker, with added production post Smelley, he could be a big riser.
Another with breakout potential is UCLA’s Joseph Fauria a Notre Dame transfer. He had basically no production before last season, when he had 39 catches and 6 TD’s. At 6’7 he’s a nice red zone target and looks athletic enough to stretch the field down the seam. He needs to play lower as a blocker and must adjust to a new system (which could see him employed more in the slot), but keep an eye out for him.
Athletic Quarterbacks the Trend
With Cam Newton’s huge rookie year, the trend towards athletic college QB’s could be well and truly on. Certainly a big rookie year from RG3 will only further cement teams confidence in this type of prospect who would have been frowned upon 5+ years ago. West Virginia’s Geno Smith and Florida State’s E.J. Manuel are two such prospects. Smith will be in the second year of Dana Holgorsen’s system and should have huge numbers. He has a big arm and can run but does need to work on the touch pass but has a ton of potential. Manuel saw some time early in his career when Christian Ponder was hurt before taking over as starter last year. He has a bit of Brock Osweiler about him he struggles to read blitzes. But he’s similar to Smith with an added injury question mark he had a shoulder injury last year so a healthy season will help him, along with another year of experience.
Other Signal Callers
The already mentioned Tyler Wilson was beaten up some in 2011, particularly against Alabama but showed he can hang in the pocket and deliver the ball when taking big hits. He gets a big test early in the year, with Alabama up in week three (on CBS in the States, ESPN America in Europe) and it will be interesting to see how he fares against a defense which has to replace some high Draft picks.
One pocket passer to keep an eye on is North Carolina State’s Matt Glennon who the NC State coaching staff have compared to Matt Ryan and was talented enough that they allowed Russell Wilson to transfer to Wisconsin last year. He needs a little work on his footwork as he tends to have his weight on his back foot when he throws but he is tall and has a good arm.
Oklahoma’s Landry Jones didn’t have the best 2011 season, including some games where he really struggled. He doesn’t have a great deal of experience returning at wide receiver, so it will be interesting to see how his stats look this year. He didn’t look at all comfortable when under pressure and also struggled when his primary receiver was covered.
Running Back Injury Question Marks
The running back position has several injury question marks. Both Ray Graham (Pittsburgh) and Christine Michael (Texas A&M;) suffered torn ACL’s fairly late in the 2011 season, so may not be 100% for the start of the season. Clemson’s Andre Ellington has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career but is a dynamic prospect. Even Wisconsin’s bell cow Montee Ball is a slight injury question for early in the year after suffering a concussion in an off the field fight. Ball had huge numbers in 2011, but has the advantage of running behind a top offensive line. He will see lots of work this year and the miles on the clock will be a concern for pro scouts. The top small school back is a Georgia transfer now at Jacksonville State, Washaun Ealey who will be up against SEC competition once again in week one (Arkansas) and week twelve (Florida).
Average Offensive Line Class
There’s not one offensive lineman who really stands out in the senior class but there are a number of solid prospects who might push for a late first round slot with solid years.
Wisconsin have become a production line at the position and next up is OT Ricky Wagner. Already looking very polished in terms of hand placement and ability to get to the second level in the run game he’s not super athletic, so may be more of a right tackle. He needs a little work with his footwork and base in pass protection.
North Carolina’s right tackle Brennan Williams is rated highly in some areas, but although he looks dominant when he can get his hands on his man he is tall (6’7) and not the most naturally flexible or athletic prospect so may be a touch over-rated.
Teams liking versatile prospects will love Alabama’s Barrett Jones. He played right guard in 2009, left tackle in 2010 and now moves to center to replace William Vlachos in 2012! I had a look at him in Alabama’s spring game and he looked very good his transition from snap to initial punch was very quick and highly impressive being new to the position. If he can avoid lunging somewhat at his man post snap then he could find himself in the first round with the added benefit of being a Nick Saban coached prospect.
Another good prospect moving position this year is Tennessee’s Dallas Thomas. He moves to left guard this year after playing left tackle in 2011. Certainly his body type looks more like a pro guard, so the move should help his stock. Thomas looks like a technique conscious prospect who has a really nice initial punch in pass protection. I’m certainly looking forward to seeing him against some top SEC DT’s.
Three other top guard prospects are all big maulers so power teams will be looking to fill their boots in April. Alabama’s Chance Warmack (320 lbs), Kentucky’s Larry Warford (330 lbs) and North Carolina’s Jonathan Cooper (a baby at 310 lbs) will need big years to separate themselves from this little crowd.
More College 3-4 Linebacker’s
The 3-4 defense has become more popular in college and this shows itself with several college 3-4 linebackers looking like very high picks.
The pick of the bunch is Notre Dame’s inside linebacker Manti Te’o. Far more athletic than Alabama/Patriots first rounder Dont’a Hightower he’s not always under control but coming back for the extra year was a great move and we should see him become a better football player. I’m expecting great things from him.
Stanford’s Chase Thomas doesn’t appear to have earned a super high pre-season grade but I really like him. He has long arms and uses them to his advantage keeping blockers off him. He does need to play a little lower at times, but I like his motor and think he can be a first rounder.
Coming from the same system that produced Von Miller, Texas A&M;’s Sean Porter has some similarities to his former team mate. His game is based more on speed than power, but that didn’t stop Miller from being a top 5 pick and although he’s not as dominant as the now Denver man, he does have first round talent.
Another inside linebacker prospect must prove his health. Stanford’s Shayne Skov was rumoured to be strongly leaning to coming out early even before his junior year. But a knee injury derailed that and he will need to show he’s all the way back. It sometimes takes a year, so his stock could slide somewhat.
Defensive Backs in Trouble
Along with LSU’s Tyrann Mathieu there have been some DB’s in trouble this off season. Two big names were kicked off their respective teams Miami SS Ray Ray Armstrong was still living on his potential coming out of high school, but certainly would have got long looks from scouts. He’s now at tiny Faulkner College. Also in Florida, FSU CB Greg Reid was dismissed and is now at Valdosta State. Georgia’s ball hawking safety Baccari Rambo misses the first four games due to suspension fellow Bulldog, CB Branden Smith, also was in trouble but has avoided any kind of suspension.
Other Top Defensive Backs
The top senior DB is Mississippi State’s Johnthan Banks (and yes the spelling of his Christian name looks wrong, but is correct!). He has a wiry build with thin ankles a good trait in CB’s as it means they can change directions quickly. Banks plays in a zone heavy system and breaks on the ball very quickly. He may not be tested that much in 2012 as the word will certainly be out! He may also see some time on offense this year he caught two passes as a WR in the Mississippi State spring game.
Oregon State’s Jordan Poyer is another CB who breaks on the ball very quickly. He has had a number of big plays throughout his career and can also return kicks. He’s the classic good player on a poor team.
One sleeper to watch is Tennessee’s Prentiss Waggner, who is moving to CB from safety this year. Certainly his slight build and loose hips make me think CB is his best pro position. He may be a pro nickel back, but I like his ability to turn and run.
Diner Coverage
For regular Diner readers, the format will much the same as last year with one change in that I’ll now comment on some of the top junior prospects. I found last year with a relatively weak senior class there wasn’t much talk of top prospects, so including the top juniors seems to make sense.
For new readers (welcome!), there will be a weekly NFL Draft Prospect Tracker which follows the top prospects. I make every effort to get through all the top prospects multiple times. About half way through the year, the first Top 100 will be published, updated post All-Star games and also post Combine. Reviews of the Senior Bowl and Combine come just before the end of year position rankings.
My off season tape study favourite though is Alex Okafor, a defensive end from Texas (pictured right) . He reminds me some of Aldon Smith, which can only be a good thing. Perhaps slightly inconsistent in his play but he has long arms, knows how to use them and will appeal to both 3-4 and 4-3 teams. Some of the attention may be taken by his bookend team mate Jackson Jeffcoat, but for me Okafor looks like being a very high pick.
