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NCAA Scouting
2013 Draft – Running Back Rankings
by Paul Emery
April 12th 2013
For new readers it’s worth quickly going through how I do things. If you are looking for a consensus ranking or something that copies from elsewhere, then this isn’t the place! I watched 278 games this year, I like to watch full games rather than the cut up prospect clips on YouTube (which I do use to break ties or where I can’t get full games), so I can get into the flow of the game and really understand when a big play is needed etc. I try and watch the top prospects at least 6 times, the middle rounders 3 to 5 and the later rounders at least a couple of times. I rate each game I see, work out an average and then build in the Combine/Pro Day numbers (see my two Combine articles).
These rankings are therefore my personal position boards and are in no way meant to predict who will be taken first in the Draft. Someone might be taken in the top 10, but that doesn’t necessarily mean I think he will make it in the NFL after all there are busts every year, so why shouldn’t rankings differ?! I’m sure NFL teams boards vary far more than the media believe.
I have no contacts in the NFL and have kept it that way on purpose so their opinions don’t change my mind. I always trust what I see on tape. However, this does mean I am not party to which players are character or medical red flags outside of what is in the media. I take into account medical to a degree, but will ignore character red flags outside of a mention in the text as I don’t know these prospects personally and it’s unfair to judge them (e.g. last year I had Janoris Jenkins as my number one CB). With that said, let’s get started with the offensive tackle class.
This is not a great class at all and indeed is one of the weaker groups in the 2013 Draft. However, there are teams out there that don’t have a problem finding late round or free agent backs and I’ll indicate the best zone blocking scheme guys at the foot of the article. Last year I picked Brandon Bolden to be the next Arian Foster, he did OK but I missed on Alfred Morris let’s have another go!
Outside of a forced need pick, I wouldn’t put a first round grade on any of these backs, so tier one starts on day two for me.
Tier One
1. Giovani Bernard* – North Carolina. The main question with Bernard is durability. He has an ACL tear in his past and missed a couple of games with injury this year. He was hobbling around in the NC State game, but that didn’t stop him returning a punt return for the winning score late in the game. That electric ability is what gives him the number one ranking. He can create from nothing and has some make you miss. He has the speed to turn the corner, but doesn’t bounce everything outside. He’s not the biggest at 205 lbs, but is not afraid to put his head down and does a nice job of carrying would be tacklers for extra yards. He’s a very good receiver out of the backfield and can help in the return game. He’s very patient and is also decent in pass protection at times in this area he resorts to cut blocks (athletic NFL players will likely hurdle these), but he did show he can stay on his feet and absorb initial contact nicely. The medical will need to be clear, but not party to this he sits on top of the pile.
2. Marcus Lattimore* South Carolina. In a deeper class, Lattimore might have been lower and indeed two major knee injuries in previous drat classes would have had me moving him further down. However, he’s one of if not the best high character players in this Draft and I’m willing to bet he makes it back. Back in 1995, an ACL tear for number one Draft choice Ki-Jana Carter didn’t cost him his career, but he came back a shadow of his former self. Today Adrian Peterson runs for over 2,000 yards on the back of the same injury, showing how more advanced medicine has become.
Lattimore took a few games this year to round into his pre-injury form and it was sad that just as he got back to form he went down with another injury. When healthy, Lattimore is a first round talent. He’s a powerful runner, very natural receiver and is also good in pass protection. He has that extra little burst to explode through holes which puts him above other backs. The vast majority of the decision as to when to take him will be medical, he was healthy enough to play a small part in the South Carolina pro day, but may have to start his NFL career on the PUP list. However, if he can get back to 100% he’s worth a day two risk for me.
3. Andre Ellington Clemson. Ellington isn’t a 20+ carry a game back, but he will be a nice luxury pick for someone, much as LaMichael James was last year for the 49ers. Ellington has had durability issues in his career, but will benefit from a lighter load than in college (over 200 carries in each of the last two seasons). He’s electric with the ball in his hands and is a threat to break it every time he touches the ball. He’s a reliable receiver and can also help as a kick returner. One of his best traits is his balance, there were numerous runs where somehow he stayed on his feet, when others would have gone down. His size limits him in pass protection, but he is willing to stay on his feet and give his best effort. A RB version of T.Y. Hilton keep him healthy and just wait for the big plays.
Tier Two
4. Eddie Lacy* – RB Alabama. Lacy really came on strong down the stretch and the last 3 games of the season he played extremely well 131 yards against Auburn, 181 in the SEC Championship Game and a further 140 in the BCS Championship Game. He’s yet to run the 40 at the time of writing (due to in a weeks time, but I prefer to get these rankings articles up sooner rather than later), but I don’t think he’s going to run a 4.4. He runs low to the ground and gets good yardage after contact. He does have some short area quickness plus his trademark spin. I had a question in pass protection in a couple of games, but he was OK in others but he can clean that up and work on his hands. Just lacks that little burst to be an elite talent, but you know what you are getting with him and he’ll fit a division like the AFC North.
5. Le’Veon Bell* – Michigan State. Patience in a back is good, but too much is not and Bell suffered from this problem somewhat in 2012, particularly on runs off tackle. It was a surprise when he ran a decent 40 time at the Combine (low 4.6’s) and certainly when looking him run stretch plays he looks more high 4.7’s/low4.8’s. The other problem for him is that he’s a little upright he’s 6’1 anyway (the tallest RB at the Combine), so he does expose himself to hits. This doesn’t mean he can’t have a great NFL career, but with a lot of miles already on the clock from a heavy college workload it is something to bear in mind. On the positive side, he’s a complete back. A very natural receiver and excellent in pass protection. He’s better in between the tackles, he has a nice little burst and some short area quickness, which can be surprising for a bigger back. If he had been more direct on wider runs, then I might have put him number one, but as it is he falls here.
Tier Three
6. Rex Burkhead Nebraska. Burkhead came into the season with a mid round grade, but after missing six games due to injury this season (MCL sprain) he has zero momentum, despite a very good all around combine workout (slow 40 time, but everything else was excellent). After his return from injury he really made a believer of me, I watched him very closely and came away highly impressed. He’s a North-South type runner, who will bounce runs out only when he has to but as soon as he sees daylight he gets up the field. He’s the type who can put the team on his back and carry them to a win. His first game back from injury was a nice example he came into the game in the second half against Iowa, ran for 69 yards and a TD and was the difference in the game. He’ll need to improve his pass protection but is a solid receiver. There’s something about this guy that I like and it sees him above some bigger names.
7. Montee Ball Wisconsin. Ball’s season took a little while to get going he suffered a concussion in an off the field incident in the spring and then suffered another against UTEP. But from October on there was only one game he didn’t break the 100 yard barrier (Michigan State). Ball is quicker in short areas than fast over long distances, so isn’t a real breakaway threat. But he’s the career NCAA TD leader, so has a nose for the end zone and has enough of a burst to get through a crease. He does a nice job of getting skinny through creases, but is not as good outside the tackle box. Ball carried a heavy load the last two years, going over 300 carries each year (356 in 2012) and the history of concussions might knock his stock. He doesn’t have big hands, but does not have a history of fumbling (lost the first of his career against UTEP one of two plays in that game where he took a helmet to helmet hit). Not the best athlete in the world, but a solid mid round back.
8. Joseph Randle* – Oklahoma State. I just happened to pick Randle’s three weakest games to watch, so I wasn’t that high on him initially but additional tape study has pushed him back up higher. I do have concerns that he lacks that initial burst and that was borne out at the Combine with one of the slowest 10 yard split times. However, he does everything well (a really good receiver out of the backfield and good in pass protection) and I’ve settled on him here. He runs a little high at times and while lacking top breakaway speed has broken some long runs in his career. He does have nice quickness to make defenders miss. He should be able to contribute early in his career as a receiver.
Tier Four
9. Zac Stacy Vanderbilt. Stacy is my number one pick to by the next Arian Foster/Alfred Morris. It looks very much that he’s going to be a late round pick, but I really like him. He’s very skilled in the zone blocking scheme showing good patience, but when he sees that crease he can cut sharply and doesn’t mess around he gets North-South in a hurry. He has good vision and is also very good in pass protection. He’s very powerful, getting yards after contact as he runs low to the ground (he’s 5’8 anyway). He doesn’t seem to be ranked highly anywhere, but in the right system I think he can become productive.
10. Johnathan Franklin UCLA. I was somewhat of a curse on Franklin, who didn’t run for 100 yards in any of the full games I watched this year. In a couple of games he didn’t seem to see the hole quickly enough and was also dancing around too much, which didn’t work and certainly won’t at the next level. But he was a reliable receiver and also very good in pass protection for a 195lb back. He looked good at the Senior Bowl and some YouTube games he looked much better, so he ends up here.
11. Stepfan Taylor Stanford. Taylor is another bigger name back who I’ve not quite connected with. Athletically on my Combine scale he’s bordering on where I would be really concerned (the Freddie Barnes zone). That shows on tape, but he is a powerful runner who can get yardage after contact. He has very thick thighs and tackling him at times is hard work. I’d like to see his pass protection improve, I’m not a fan of cut blocks and he used these tactic too much (NFL LB’s will hurdle over him like he’s not there). He is what he is, but might be more of a short yardage/goal line back.
Tier Five
12. Chris Thompson Florida State. Thompson came back from a broken back in 2011 and was looking really good before he tore his ACL. But I’ve ranked Lattimore high even with such an injury, so will give Thompson a higher ranking than most will. In some ways he’s a little like Andre Ellington, but he is shorter and lighter making pass protection even more of a concern (although he does give good effort in this area). He may need a year to get 100% healthy, but was on his way to a big year and can make cuts at full speed, so a nice change of pace back.
13. George Winn Cincinnati. Number two in my zone blocking scheme back list. Only one year of real production, but he was behind Isaiah Pead (round 2 2012, Rams). Very direct runner who doesn’t waste time dancing around in the backfield sees the hole and hits it at full speed. Must ensure he keeps his shoulders square on wider runs, doesn’t always do so and loses effectiveness. Has a nice burst though and can cut sharply. Runs low and gets yardage after contact. One benefit of only 78 carries before this past season is that he should have a longer career than a Montee Ball.
14. Knile Davis* – Arkansas. Davis missed the entire 2011 season due to an ankle injury and only showed flashes on his pre-injury form in 2012. Indeed he only ran for 377 yards and in the last 7 games he only had 30 carries. He had fumble problems 2 against Alabama and 3 against Texas A&M; which saw him relegated from the starting lineup. He did have a really nice 65 yard run after the catch against A&M;, but you just can’t turn the ball over with that regularity he does have very small hands, so that issue may not ever go away. Coming into the 2011 season he was being talked about as a first round pick and is electric if healthy. If he can figure out how to hold on to the rock, then he could be a steal.
Tier Six
15. Ray Graham Pittsburgh. Graham is another with an ACL tear in his history, returning from it in 2012. He took a while to get back to pre-injury form (he was still wearing a brace) but looked very good against Notre Dame. After that he couldn’t stay healthy though and his stock has been in decline and the slowest RB 40 yard dash at the Combine didn’t help. He’s not the biggest back at 5’9 195 lbs, but is a very slippery back that can cut sharply without dropping his speed. I really liked Dion Lewis, very similar in some ways, so might be reluctant to get burned twice on a similar back (although Lewis has been behind LeSean McCoy and hasdn’t had much of an opportunity)…
16. Jawan Jamison* – Rutgers. One thing that Mel Kiper mentioned in a podcast really stayed with me know your numbers and Jamison clearly didn’t. A redshirt sophomore with people telling him he’s the next Ray Rice, he tested out very poorly at the Combine and was the lowest RB on my scale, which means he’s below what is required to be an NFL athlete. He only ran for 100 yards once in the last 8 games of the season and that was against Temple so I’m not sure what momentum he thought he had to declare early. He doesn’t always hit the hole hard and looking at his Combine numbers it’s simply because he’s not a good enough athlete. Not the biggest back (5’7 203 lbs) and that doesn’t suit his running style when projecting him forward. Football wise, he really should have stayed in school to get his degree as he may not be athletic enough for the NFL.
Tier Seven
17. Miguel Maysonet Stony Brook. Maysonet was nicked up in the FCS Playoffs and didn’t workout at the Combine, but he had an OK pro day (low 4.6’s in the 40) but didn’t test out quite as well as I thought he would. He lit up Syracuse for 158 yards including a 71 yard TD and that’s not as easy task with an overmatched offensive line. He’s a former Hofstra player (like Marques Colston), but transferred when they canned football. At 205 lbs he might be a touch light for a bell cow, but I think he can form part of a RB pairing. He ran in a zone blocking scheme and showed he can cut very sharply. He’s not afraid of contact and gives good effort in pass protection. A dynamic playmaker at a lower level of play, doesn’t have the level of competition check from an All-Star game due to injury, which prevents him from being rated higher.
18. Bradley Randle* – UNLV. Perhaps a surprise early entry to the Draft, but he’s already graduated so why not test the waters. Some guys you look at tape and are nothing special, but Randle I liked. He’s only 5’6 189 lbs, but will be a nice change of pace back. He runs hard and with good lean and is very tough to locate. Has enough power about him to break some tackles, but it’s mainly his ability to cut sharply and his speed (high 4.4’s) that appeals. He’s not big enough to make my zone blocking scheme list, but ran that system in college and could be a nice change of pace back.
Tier Eight
19. Kerwynn Williams Utah State. Behind Robert Turbin in 2011, but even at 5’8 195 lbs carried the load this year (218 carries). He ran for over 1,500 yards and also added 45 catches and it could well be it’s as a receiver out of the backfield and kick returner that he will make his initial impact. With the WAC a victim of all the musical chairs in college football, his record for most all purpose yardage in WAC history will remain forever (although it would be nice to think the conference can make a comeback, I certainly will miss it). Dynamic in space, he’s fun to watch and will be a nice luxury pick on day three.
20. Kenjon Barner Oregon. I’m clearly not Barner’s biggest fan. He’s fast, but isn’t able to change directions sharply at full speed and you can really notice the difference when De’Anthony Thomas gets the ball. He has a nice burst and the speed to turn the corner, but for me is a one trick pony. Situational back only.
Tier Nine (in brief)
21. Mike Gillislee Florida. Another big name that I don’t really like. Seems to struggle to stay healthy in all but one game I saw he limped off at some point, so he has a little Beanie Wells about him (I never liked him and just got cut by the Cardinals, so one I got right). He had some big games, but is better up the middle and I’m not sure he can stand the pounding. Just a prospect I’ve never clicked with I’m afraid.
22. Christine Michael Texas A&M.; Michael saw his carries and therefore production take a nose dive in 2012, not the way one wants to head into the Draft. He got in the dog house of the new coaching staff and was a backup all year. He had a few decent games, but against the better SEC teams he was poor. The rule is don’t draft a player on their junior tape and that’s what a team will have to do with Michael.
23. Khiry Robinson West Texas A&M.; A powerful zone blocking scheme back that runs low and can break tackles. Very natural receiver out of the backfield, but does need to improve his pass protection. Has good vision and can cut sharply, makes my top five late round/free agent zone blocking scheme backs.
24. D.J. Harper Boise State. Harper was good enough to make Doug Martin move to DB but an ACL tear saw Martin move back over and then Harper had to wait behind him. Ran for over 1,100 yard in 2012. Tested out well at the Combine and is a solid receiver. Doesn’t waste steps, gets North-South and will get everything he can from each run.
25. Derrick Washington Tuskegee. He was a 1,000 yard back for Missouri in 2008 and managed 865 yards in 2009. He was then convicted of sexual assault and served 120 days in prison before being released. Clearly not every NFL owner will sign off on him even as an undrafted free agent. Was clearly too good for the D2 level. Was able to create from nothing, but lacks the speed to do so at the next level. But he’s a good receiver and solid in pass protection, so he’s worth a look.
26. Mike James Miami (FL). Has never been the man at Miami, but has found a way to contribute even playing some FB. May be a tweener, but should find a home in a one back scheme. Does everything well, but doesn’t stand out necessarily. Ideal guy who can make a roster as a jack of all trades.
Top Five Late Round/Free Agent Zone Blocking Scheme Backs the next Alfred Morris?!
1. Zac Stacy Vanderbilt.
2. George Winn Cincinnati.
3. Miguel Maysonet Stony Brook.
4. Khiry Robinson West Texas A&M.;
5. D.J. Harper Boise State.
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