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NCAA Scouting
Paul Hopkins’ 2011 1st Round Mock Draft V1.0
by Paul Hopkins
April 14th 2011
 
1 Carolina Panthers Cameron Newton (QB, Auburn) The Panthers need a QB; even with Jimmy Clausen on the roster they know they need to improve here. If not it leaves them likely to be picking in the top ten until they do. They appear to prefer Newton’s potential to that of Gabbert’s.
Other possible selections: Adding the phenomenal AJ Green would undoubtedly help Clausen and Steve Smith. Defensively, the Panthers are reasonably solid but a stud like Dareus or Peterson would improve any defense.
Possible trade? Unless a team is rabidly desperate to secure one of the two passers, it won’t happen.
 
2 Denver Broncos Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama) The suspicion that John Elway was toying with QBs just to elicit trade opportunities appears to be false; he is considering the need for a true #1 in Denver. However, Elway cannot escape the fact that they are absolutely woeful on defense. Dareus is a stud. It’s a no-brainer.
Other possible selections: If Elway is particularly taken with Gabbert it’s a possibility, but he is surely a luxury Denver can’t afford. Von Miller is a possibility if they decide that the outside pass rush opposite Elvis Dumervil is their primary requirement.
Possible trade? Definitely a possibility. Such are the gaping holes on defense and the picks McDaniels traded away, that acquiring more picks to plug the gaping holes from a team desperate to land the QB the Panthers don’t take.
 
3 Buffalo Bills Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri) The Bills will never improve until they establish a new identity on offense. Fitzpatrick does a nice job but is not the answer. Gabbert has star potential in this league and to have him fall into their lap at #3 is something not even the Bills can ignore. Time to erase the JP Losman experience and start again.
Other possible selections: The Bills pass rush is paltry; 27 sacks in 2010 sums it up. So Von Miller will draw strong consideration. Their receiving corps looks depleted so AJ Green is a possibility but surely they need the future of their franchise under centre most of all.
Possible trade? Only if Ralph Wilson doesn’t want to pay top three money and someone makes them an offer they can’t refuse to get Gabbert.
 
4 Cincinnati Bengals AJ Green (WR, Georgia) Owner and star QB are both digging their heels in for a fight. So BPA is the way to go and offensively that is AJ Green. The young receiving corps in Cincinnati would get a whole lot better. But is it enough to tempt Carson back in 2011?
Other possible selections: Von Miller would upgrade their pass rush as would Robert Quinn. Jonathan Joseph’s contract being up and not being able to re-sign him could see them taking Peterson.
Possible trade? Not unless someone is desperate to snare Green, Miller or Peterson.
 
5 Arizona Cardinals Von Miller (OLB, Texas A+M) The Cardinals might have the biggest mess in the NFL at QB but they’re not (unless they trade up) going to get a top QB. The team never found a replacement for Karlos Dansby but find the draft’s top pass rusher drop right to them.
Other possible selections: When the top defensive talent in the draft remains on the board i.e. Patrick Peterson, you give him strong consideration.
Possible trade? Again, not unless someone is desperate to snare Green, Miller or Peterson and furnishes the Cardinals with enough ammunition to get back into the first round to bag a QB.
 
6 Cleveland Browns Robert Quinn (DE/OLB, North Carolina) The Browns would love Miller to fall to them, and they will think long and hard about taking Patrick Peterson but pass rush has to be more of a priority for Cleveland. Quinn can come in and have an immediate impact.
Other possible selections: Quinn or Peterson? Tough choice and one that will likely see the Browns take up their full allotted time before deciding.
Possible trade? Definite possibility. With it being universally known the 49ers will jump all over Patrick Peterson, the Browns will tempt anyone and everyone to swoop for probably the best player out there.
 
7 San Francisco 49ers Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU) Is this the perfect scenario for the Niners? To have probably the best defensive player in the draft drop into their laps would need 0.0001 of a second’s consideration.
Other possible selections: If Peterson is there, there is no other option.
Possible trade? If Peterson is snapped up before them then it is probably too early for Amukamara, so a drop back is a possibility.
 
8 Tennessee Titans Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn) This guy is a perfect match for this team. Mean, nasty and effective. And could they end up pairing him with Albert Haynesworth in 2011?
Other possible selections: The Titans likely don’t spend a lot of time considering other prospects as the elite players remaining don’t match their needs, and Fairley is such a perfect fit.
Possible trade? Unless someone is particularly keen on Fairley or even a Tyron Smith or Amukamara, a trade appears unlikely.
 
9 Dallas Cowboys Tyron Smith (OT, USC) It’s undeniable the Cowboys simply must get younger on the offensive line and must replace the bar door that is Marc Colombo. With talent elsewhere on offense to remain in contention, it needs to be an iterative process. Adding someone with the ability to start for over a decade in a key position is a relatively easy choice.
Other possible selections: Defensive line and secondary are the other needs of the Cowboys. Amukarama will be considered and if the Cowboys like him, he could be had. They may trade down a spot or two and wind up still with Smith, or Gabe Carimi or a defensive end like JJ Watt or Cameron Jordan.
Possible trade? Distinct possibility. With the clear top eight prospects all gone then wheeler dealer Jerry Jones will solicit offers to trade back, acquire picks and still pick up a tackle or defensive end.
 
10 Washington Redskins Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska) Whilst DeAngelo Hall had a Pro Bowl year, the Skins don’t have a lot alongside him. They’ve upgraded their secondary through Otogwe but in the NFC East against the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys you need depth and strength in your secondary. Adding Prince makes them even stronger.
Other possible selections: You never know with this team. They could add another bookend offensive tackle for the next decade a year after taking the Silverback. Julio Jones is another decent shout but that would be a bit of a reach at #10.
Possible trade? The Redskins of old traded away their picks like nobodies business. The new regime of Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan value them more so likely stick unless a good offer comes in.
 
11 Houston Texans JJ Watt (DE, Wisconsin) Football’s worst defense is moving to a 3-4 and frankly, doesn’t have the personnel to do so. Watt is just one piece of the puzzle for new DC Wade Phillips.
Other possible selections: Cameron Jordan may also get strong consideration. They desperately need a 3-4 nose tackle but a lack of value precludes that choice. If Amukamara makes it down this far, this secondary was so woeful they will consider adding cornerback in the first round for the second year running.
Possible trade? Unlikely. This team needs to tap some elite talent as they shift their defensive focus. Unless someone provides picks to allow them to add 3-4 personnel, they’ll stick and pick.
 
12 Minnesota Vikings Cameron Jordan (DE, California) The Vikings arguably need a QB most of all, but there just isn’t value here. Their defensive line is ageing and Jordan’s ability to get to the passer Marvin Lewis nearly threw him out of practice at the Senior Bowl such was his unplayability, would assist Jared Allen getting back after a disappointing 2010.
Other possible selections: There aren’t a whole lot of alternatives for the Vikings in areas of key need which means a trade is quite possible, perhaps even probable. Offensive tackle is a possibility, and unless they are infatuated with a QB like Ponder or Locker and want peace of mind they have their man regardless of where he is drafted, it’s a likely option.
Possible trade? Too early for another QB surely. The Vikings could jump back once, maybe twice in pursuit of what they clearly need the most.
 
13 Detroit Lions Anthony Costanza (OT, Boston College) After hoping that Amukamara, Watt and Jordan drops to them and none of them do, the Lions go and get a tackle that will protect their fragile star asset Matthew Stafford.
Other possible selections: After seeing three possible targets go directly in front of them in positions of need, the Lions are left to focus in on the other major hole they have that needs filling.
Possible trade? The Draft works well for the Lions in their positions of need. The most likely way they’re not picking at #13 is if they jump up to take someone they want badly.
 
14 St Louis Rams Julio Jones (WR, Alabama) The Rams were one game away from winning the division in 2010. Whilst receivers like Amendola were solid and Donnie Avery and Mark Clayton are due to return from injury, adding a big beast like Jones to develop with Sam Bradford will give the offense more balance.
Other possible selections: The Rams could also do with some help on the defensive line particularly up the middle. Despite using high draft picks on the line before, this might be another choice for them. Furthermore, if Watt or Jordan are there, the Rams may let Jones pass them by.
Possible trade? Much like Detroit, the Rams aren’t likely to move. Moving up for Jones though if they consider it would in my view be a mistake.
 
15 Miami Dolphins Christian Ponder (QB, Florida State) And here comes the first curve ball. The Dolphins really don’t have a lot of problems. Running back can be addressed later as can the interior of the offensive line. Chad Henne needs some competition and the solid and cerebral Ponder will give him strong competition from day one.
Other possible selections: As mentioned, the Fins don’t have an awful lot of holes. Interior offensive line being the other obvious one. Mike Pouncey is the stand out here, but it seems too early to select him, leaving the Fins clear to take a chance on Ponder.
Possible trade? If they think they can get Ponder (or another QB they like) or Pouncey; or even if they really like Mark Ingram, then a trade towards the end of the first round is a possibility.
 
16 Jacksonville Jaguars Aldon Smith (DE/OLB, Missouri) The Jags surprised a few last season challenging till late on for the division but missing the post-season. Pass rush was a weakness in their run-in in 2010 and there are inexperience and injury concerns over the incumbents.
Other possible selections: Smith is flying up boards and could wind up going even earlier. Brooks Reed, Arizona’s defensive end and Ryan Kerrigan from Purdue are possible options, both of whom would fit the Jags nicely.
Possible trade? If they were targeting Christian Ponder as some mocks and draft insiders suggest, then seeing him go to Miami may compel them to decide that moving back is the best option.
 

17 New England Patriots Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin) Matt Light is getting older so the Patriots have a need at the tackle position. If Carimi slips down to here New England will add him.
Other possible selections: Brooks Reed and Akeem Ayers are most definitely on Belichick’s radar and could upgrade their pass rush considerably.
Possible trade? It’s Bill Belichick so trading is always a distinct possibility. But with the 14-2 record of 2010, the Pats need some impact players to kick on from this, so expect them to use both first rounders.
 
18 San Diego Chargers Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue) The Chargers may have had one of the premier defenses in football last year but a solid guy in Kerrigan is one that AJ Smith might find hard to ignore, given his leadership and versatility.
Other possible selections: If AJ Smith and his staff aren’t one of the teams with a great concern about Da’Quan Bowers’ injury status then they may be tempted to take a gamble on him. Brooks Reed is another possibility.
Possible trade? Smith is always open to trading back and forth on draft weekend so it remains a possibility.
 
19 New York Giants Mike Pouncey (OG/C, Florida) With the lack of value at other positions of need, the Giants do what they always do in cases like this and draft a solid, dependable player for one of their lines.
Other possible selections: Outside linebacker needs upgrading. They may also look at the son of a former Giant, Mark Ingram to bolster their rushing attack.
Possible trade? If the G-Men sense value can be had later back in the round then there is a possibility; particularly if one team sees Ponder go and decides to trigger a run on the second level QBs earlier than expected.
 
20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Da’Quan Bowers (OLB, Clemson) Sadly it appears that Bowers is going to drop like a stone. The risk is simply too great for too many teams higher up the draft. That works for Tampa who desperately needs to upgrade their pass rush, so they take great delight in taking a smaller risk on elite talent and a top character guy, albeit one with significant injury concerns.
Other possible selections: If the Buccaneers are another of those teams with a question mark over Bowers look for them to add Brooks Reed out of Arizona. A team captain in college and after a strong combine performance would be yet another stellar young talent for this improving team.
Possible trade? Unlikely unless they really like one of the pass rushers likely to have gone before them. The Buccs have a strong drafting record in recent years which has earnt Mark Dominik a new contract.
 
21 Kansas City Chiefs Phil Taylor (NT, Baylor) The Chiefs have invested significantly in their defense through the draft in recent years, but still need that anchor defensive tackle. Taylor had several questions to overcome at the start of the draft process but seems to have answered each of these to merit his rising draft stock.
Other possible selections: The Chiefs could also do with upgrading their offensive tackle position so Derek Sherrod and Nate Solder are options.
Possible trade? Always possible with Pioli.
 
22 Indianapolis Colts Derek Sherrod (OT, Mississippi) Offensive line is the greatest need. They’ve swung and missed on some picks previously but Sherrod is starting to motor up board. Charlie Johnson is bang average at best, Peyton is not getting any younger and at times last season was feeling the pass rush like never before.
Other possible selections: I believe this pick comes down to who they like more between Sherrod and Nate Solder.
Possible trade? We’re now at the point of the Draft what with the lack of free agency, the quality of the QB class and the number of teams desperate for a QB that major trading could begin as teams scramble to get the likes of Dalton, Locker, Mallett and Kaepernick.
 
23 Philadelphia Eagles Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado) Smith is the third best cornerback in this draft and frankly is a top 15 pick talent. But he comes with major character question marks. However, Andy Reid is never shy in giving second chances and appears to have as good a record as any in supporting people through their troubles. Smith has too much upside in a position the Eagles need to improve on for him to be passed over.
Other possible selections: If the Colts don’t take Sherrod I would think the Eagles would be all over him as their offensive tackles needs upgrading. Michael Vick needs all the protection he can get. I don’t see Nate Solder and his mammoth frame being particularly appealing to the Eagles system.
Possible trade? The Eagles could benefit from a QB-hungry side as we now enter the phase of the draft where the talent from the early 20s to the late 30’s are much of a muchness. But as we saw with Brandon Graham last year if the Eagles like someone enough, they’ll mobilise to move up the board.
 
24 New Orleans Saints Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama) The Saints have got by in the running game for a few years now. But it’s clear they need a compliment to Pierre Thomas. Even with question marks over his arthritic knee, taking the best rusher in the Draft represents good value at pick #24.
Other possible selections: The Saints’ other need is on defensive line. Adrian Clayborn is a first round talent but has injury concerns which lead many to believe he can only play from one side of the line. Even so, his talent is obvious so this remains a shout for a team needing to upgrade its defensive line. Other possibilities include Justin Houston, Marvin Austin and Corey Liuget. Whilst adding Shaun Rodgers won’t stop them going here, it’s possible with temptation like Ingram; they may decide he’s enough to go with.
Possible trade? If Dalton, Locker, Mallett and Kaepernick remain on the board and a desperate GM exists, there’s that possibility.
 
25 Seattle Seahawks Muhammad Wilkerson (DT, Temple) Seattle has a need across the defensive line and at this point there is enough talent remaining at end for them to look inside in the shape of Muhammad Wilkerson from Temple.
Other possible selections: When addressing their defensive line Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward and Brooks Reed are all decent shouts to plug the line. Could they take Jake Locker? The links are there. Carroll will have seen Locker up close and personal in the Pac10. His old coach at USC Steve Sarkisian has been Locker’s Head Coach and will advise Pete on his potential. It’s a risk but with Hasselbeck possibly out the door and only Charlie Whitehurst there, the Hawks need a QB. Their woeful pass defense could also be upgraded through Aaron Williams.
Possible trade? Ditto as per New Orleans.
 
26 Baltimore Ravens Cameron Heyward (DE/OLB, Ohio State) I’m not one to follow Brian Billick’s lead but he is utterly convinced that Heyward is the pick if he is still there at #26. And Heyward is a top drawer athlete who can make an immediate impact as a situational player, which is just how the Ravens like it.
Other possible selections: It is only a year since the Ravens spent a high pick on Sergio Kindle who plays in a similar position. But with question marks over when and indeed, if he will ever return the Ravens this seems a sensible choice. They still need a burner to stretch the field offensively but at this point they should have the opportunity to fill that void in further rounds.
Possible trade? Ozzie Newsome and his staff know how to operate the draft, so again the possibility is there.
 
27 Atlanta Falcons Brooks Reed (DE, Arizona) Despite having the best record in the NFC, the Falcons only registered 31 sacks, John Abraham is starting to age and there is little behind. Reed is on many people’s lips at the present time and could go higher, but reigning GM supremo Thomas Dimitroff would not let him pass any further if he is still here.
Other possible selections: When looking at their pass rush Akeem Ayers will also be considered by Dimitroff.
Possible trade? If those QBs are still there at this point, nervy GMs may be tempted to pounce.
 
28 New England Patriots Akeem Ayers (DE/OLB, UCLA) The Pats pass rush has needed upgrading for some time. After gambling that he would be able to improve the rush with his second first rounder, things (as they usually do) work to perfection for Belichick who gets a player with great versatility. It also stops him falling to arch-rival Rex Ryan.
Other possible selections: Justin Houston would likely join Ayers atop the Patriots board at this point.
Possible trade? A trade here is very likely just because of how the Patriots operate their drafting.
 
29 Chicago Bears Nate Solder (OT, Colorado) Mike Tice might have eventually got this line playing together in the second half of the year, but there is no getting away from the battering Jay Cutler took all season long. Solder seems a love him or hate him player in this draft but at #29 its great value.
Other possible selections: The Bears play in a division with the reigning Champion Packers and their many, many offensive weapons. Upgrading their secondary therefore is always under consideration, so with Aaron Williams out of Texas still on the board, there is a chance they go here.
Possible trade? A trade back with a QB hungry team is a distinct possibility.
 
30 New York Jets Justin Houston (DE, Georgia) Rex Ryan can never have enough tools on defense with which to get after arch nemesis’ Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
Other possible selections: Could they go running back with Illinois’ Mikel Leshoure?
Possible trade? A trade back with a QB hungry team is a distinct possibility.
 
31 Pittsburgh Steelers Aaron Williams (CB, Texas) The Steelers were noticeably out in force for the Longhorns’ pro day including Mike Tomlin which gives an indication how strongly they’re considering Williams. The first round works perfectly for the Steelers and they end up with this versatile talent.
Other possible selections: The Steelers much maligned offensive line could always do with some support to help protect Roethlisberger. With the top level line talent all gone at this point, they could reach a bit and select Villanova prospect Ben Iljalana.
Possible trade? A trade back with a QB hungry team is a distinct possibility.
 
32 Green Bay Packers Corey Liuget (DT, Illinois) Cullen Jenkins is likely to test free agency when (if) it eventually happens. Johnny Jolly wishes he had that problem ahead of him.
Other possible selections: As reigning Champions the Packers could do in any number of different directions. Could they think Adrian Clayborn represents value here despite the concerns?
Possible trade? A trade back with a QB hungry team is a distinct possibility.