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 NCAA Scouting
Michael E Lawrence’s 2010 1st Round Mock Draft V1.0
Updated 3rd April 2010
by Michael E Lawrence
3/4/2010
1. St. Louis Sam Bradford QB
If they stay put, this pick is all but certain for the Rams, who must re-fashion a tired franchise with a new poster child at the most important position on the field. The Rams will not pick a DT here but might be willing to trade down if they feel Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen is of comparable value to Bradford.
2. Detroit Rusell Okung OT
Most draftniks are cottoning on to the fact that Okung is the likeliest pick here, especially with DT Corey Williams and his relatively sizeable contract added in a trade with Cleveland. LT is too important a position to ignore for a rebuilding team, especially one with a young quarterback in place: Matt Stafford can’t get so battered he becomes the second coming of David Carr. Detroit will be in play for a trade down for a team desperate to steal whichever DT Tampa is targeting, and there are other tempting OTs to be had later on.
3. Tampa Bay Ndamukong Suh DT
Suh or Gerald McCoy? Pundits claim McCoy is a better fit, insiders say Tampa prefer Suh’s motor. We’ll go with the gossipers. Needless to say, the addition of Suh sets the tone for a Bucs team struggling to find identity under Raheem Morris. Suh should slot in nicely among a strong defensive tradition built on the likes of Lee Roy Selmon, Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber.
4. Washington Jimmy Clausen QB
Under Daniel Snyder, the Redskins are as fan-savvy as any team, and always draft a big ticket prospect with a national profile (Brian Orakpo, LaRon Landry, Sean Taylor etc.). Clausen would fit the profile perfectly, quite apart from filling a genuine need with Jason Campbell treading water at the pivotal quarterback position. Of course, this is the Shanahan/Allen show these days, which might just lead them to pick a LT, but Clausen has a lot of the same qualities good and bad as another Shanny pick, Jay Cutler.
5. Kansas City Trent Williams OT
The common observation about Kansas City at pick five is that under Pioli and Haley they will draft for scheme, not talent per se. Tyson Jackson, last year’s third overall pick, is proof of that. Really, the Chiefs need offensive line help above all else especially with a young quarterback and burgeoning running game to take care of and Bryan Bulaga is most commonly mocked to them at five. But Williams is the pick, purely because he’s a riser in the same fashion Jackson was a year ago; Bulaga is more of a known quantity whose ceiling might not be quite so high.
6. Seattle Gerald McCoy DT
McCoy doesn’t fit in Kansas City who drafted Glenn Dorsey a few years ago nor in Washington, who are looking for 3-4 types rather than up-field penetrators. And so he does a little Dorsey freefall of his own as something of a square peg beyond Tampa, and lands in Seattle. It’s just the right kind of splash for Pete Carroll’s first draft since the 1990s, but as a former DB coach who oversaw the selections of first rounders Tebucky Jones and Chris Canty, is there room for a sliding Eric Berry or a re-emerging Joe Haden here? CJ Spiller, invited to the draft as a presumptive top 10 pick and increasingly mocked at pick six, doesn’t play a pivotal enough position to make it happen.
7. Cleveland Eric Berry S
Last year Cleveland took the fifth overall selection QB Mark Sanchez, it transpired and turned it into a fistful of dust, eventually selecting a solid if unspectacular center and picking up some bit part players for the privilege. You have to presume the wheeler-dealing might not be so manic under new czar Mike Holmgren, but this pick still has the look of a potential trade down or up spot. The Browns could go hard after Clausen (Mike Homgren’s dissembling notwithstanding) or stand pat and draft the BPA Berry.
8. Oakland Anthony Davis OT
Yes, Al Davis is a stubborn, blinkered drafter these days but if there’s one thing he’s not, it’s predictable. He’s heard the jokes about obsession with 40 times and he knows his recent drafts have been laughing stocks sometimes unfairly. Everyone has Bruce Campbell ticketed for this slot in the same way as the Darius Heyward Bey rumours started in the wake of the 2009 combine but Davis will be hyper-sensitive to DHB’s seeming failure and won’t fall into the Campbell trap that easily. Still, controversy is never far away in Oakland and Davis back on the rise after a decent Pro Day would provide just that.
9. Buffalo Bryan Bulaga OT
Chan Gailey says Buffalo have better players than people give them credit for, but I don’t buy it. Certainly not on offense, where Lee Evans and Fred Jackson are lone bright spots in an otherwise underwhelming unit. If Gailey wants to establish the run, as he did in stops at Dallas, Miami and Kansas City, he’ll need the chops up front to do it. Bulaga is considered the safe bet of the tackle crop and should enable Jackson and Marshawn Lynch to get better established while Trent Edwards proves once and for all he’s not an NFL-level starter.
10. Jacksonville Jason Pierre Paul DE
Everyone and their uncle knows Jacksonville need pass rush help even in the wake of Reggie Hayward and Aaron Kampman signings. The Jags need bodies and Pierre Paul is a player that all being well can be developed in a way Derrick Harvey wasn’t. The caveat: Pierre Paul could be the second coming of DeMarcus Ware, or he could flatline like Aaron Maybin.
11. Denver Dan Williams NT
If not when Denver can unload malcontent Brandon Marshall, Josh McDaniels won’t be lining up anytime soon to replace him with Dez Bryant, who might bring the same kind of baggage with him. In fact when Denver sank without trace as the 2009 season wore on, a defense constructed of bit parters and over-achievers was as much to blame as anything else. With Denver’s original 2010 first rounder traded for Alphonso Smith last year, CB can’t be an option here, as much as Joe Haden or Earl Thomas would fit. Williams will be a much sought after commodity at this point of the draft and would fit in the Jason Ferguson/ Vince Wilfork/ Kris Jenkins role in the Broncos’ 3-4.
12. Miami Earl Thomas CB/S
Missing out on Williams, the Dolphins could use an upgrade in the secondary and might feel Thomas could help at either CB or FS, combining with Vontae Davis and Sean Smith to give them a selection of decent young DBs in a division featuring Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards and Lee Evans. But how come Bill Parcells was lunching with Dez Bryant? We’ll see, but doing so might only be a strategy to propel Bryant back into the top-12 thus forcing a different target like Thomas further down the order.
13. San Francisco Joe Haden CB
With Thomas gone there’s no time for the 49ers to sit and wait for a DB to fall to them at 17, and they need one to solidify an improving defense. While Haden redeemed his stock with a decent Pro Day 40, scouts still question his long speed. CJ Spiller, again, is too much of a luxury for a team that a) features Frank Gore and last year’s promising third rounder Glenn Coffee, and b) has a chance to compete for a division title with Arizona sliding backwards.
14. Seattle Dez Bryant WR
McCoy at six and Bryant at 14? Get out the party poppers in Seattle. Credit to Walterfootball.com for positing this marriage first, and for noting that the Seahawks’ interest in Brandon Marshall must be reflected in a preparedness to draft Bryant if it comes to it. The only issue now is that Charlie Whitehurst will be throwing him the ball sooner or later. For me, the Whitehurst trade has AJ Feeley and Rob Johnson written all over it and for my money, Carroll’s below-average stints with the Jets and Patriots have me convinced his own tenure will mirror a Steve Spurrier/Butch Davis type letdown.
15. New York Giants CJ Spiller RB
The Giants’ interest in Spiller and LB Rolando McClain is reasonably common knowledge and if not a smokescreen from savvy GM Jerry Reese speaks volumes about their faith in Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, and their desire to replace the talismanic Antonio Pierce. Spiller, a supposed Chris Johnson clone, would oust Bradshaw and play the old Derrick Ward role in a newly ground-oriented offensive attack.
16. Tennessee Derrick Morgan DE
With Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth but distant memories, the Titans would like to return to the formula that helped them dominate the AFC in 2009. With a gaping hole at the end spots, Morgan fits right in, especially as the Titans’ best chance of toppling the Colts and Texans is to keep possession of the ball with Chris Johnson and to pummel Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub into submission and/or injury with a competent pass rush.
17. San Francisco Rolando McClain LB
The 49ers have Patrick Willis at ILB, but they also have Takeo Spikes pencilled in next to him. Could once-archetypal MLB Mike Singletary resist adding another playmaker to his front seven? As a veteran of the defense-wins-championships era, don’t bet on it. More pointedly, rivals Arizona are set to commit to a heavier running game with Kurt Warner leaving town, and the Niners will need to make sure they’re ready for them if they want to steal the West.
18. Pittsburgh Kyle Wilson CB
Rest assured the Steelers would do all they can to try and swipe McClain if he gets near, but in this scenario that’s not happening. They must address a pass defense that was responsible for a disappointing ’09 campaign, knowing that doing so should vault the Steelers back into Super Bowl contention, presuming their star quarterback and receiver keep their noses amongst other things out of precarious waters. Take your pick of who the top CB on the board is at this point we’re guessing Wilson.
19. Atlanta Sean Weatherspoon LB
Often mocked here, Weatherspoon is a likeable, energetic leader just perfect for a team lacking talent on the outside. As a young team with definite playoff upside, Weatherspoon should slot straight in as a tempo-setter who makes other players around him better.
20. Houston Devin McCourty CB
I just don’t see the Texans picking up a first round running back when so many Gary Kubiak-related teams have harvested effective zone-scheme runners in later rounds (Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Clinton Portis, Mike Anderson, Tatum Bell, Steve Slaton etc.). The Texans are, supposedly, perennially ‘on the verge’ of the playoffs, which means an offense that put up copious yards and points is not the main issue. The defense needs to continue getting better, and with the cupboard bare outside of Jacque Reeves, Houston has to consider McCourty or Patrick Robinson.
21. Cincinnati Taylor Mays S
Great measurables, surprising inflexibility that’s the book on Mays. But the Bengals are a team who took a shot on another great athlete with limited range in Roy Williams a while back, and Mays comes in with a great pedigree and a thumper mentality that fits well with the Bengals newly aggressive defensive mindset.
22. New England Jared Odrick DE
Yes, they need a runner and possibly a pass catching tight end and Belichick has drafted both in round one before, but Odrick fits the bill for a Richard Seymour-free defense that let the Patriots down time and again in 2009. Does Brandon Graham get a look as a talented pass rusher off the edge? Possibly so, but Odrick fits a bigger need and the Pats are already smitten with his potential.
23. Green Bay Bruce Campbell OT
This is a troubling pick because the Packers must find young tackle talent in the event the old timers manning the outside break down, but Charles Brown is coming off a poor workout that saw him struggle in strength terms while Campbell is a lottery ticket of a prospect. While a guard like Mike Iupati or Maurkice Pouncey might help the overall line play, neither can stop edge rushers from clattering into franchise QB Aaron Rodgers, which is an absolute must.
24. Philadelphia Brandon Graham DE/LB
With Sheldon Brown shipped out the Eagles will want to fill the gap in their defensive backfield, but they also shipped out Chris Gocong because he never posed the pass rush threat the Eagles hoped. Graham can help with that, but the Eagles will also be tempted to pick up Mike Iupati to help the inside running game (a weak spot with LeSean McCoy in post last year) or McCourty.
25. Baltimore Everson Griffen DE
Coming off a great Pro Day where he weighed in at 273, Griffen has to slot inside the back end of the first round and arguably has the bulk and athleticism to play in Dwan Edwards’ place opposite Haloti Ngata. The Ravens will doubtless consider a pass catching TE in the Jermaine Gresham, Rob Gronkowski mould.
26. Arizona Mike Iupati OG
Time of change in Arizona where Matt Leinart or Derek Anderson will run the Cardinals high powered offense. That being the case, the Cards need to sure up their ground game with immediate effect, and in the absence of a surefire tackle prospect Charles Brown and Rodger Saffold don’t quite cut it Iupati at least solidifies a so-so interior line. There are certainly some defensive holes to consider here a pass rusher and ILB among them but the Cards are built on offensive production first and have built two good seasons in a row on the back of that bias.
27. Dallas Nate Allen S
The need for a playmaking receiver pales into insignificance with the release of Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin, leaving the Cowboys with major holes at LT and S. They’ve had success with DBs picked late in the first round in the shape of CB Mike Jenkins and will be conscious of New York’s and Philadelphia’s improving passing games intra-division. Could they pick up a Demaryius Thomas here? It’s possible, but Roy Williams has been paid to prove his mettle in 2010 and will be given every opportunity to succeed or fail. Campbell enters the conversation, but this isn’t the pick for a roll-of-the-dice type player.
28. San Diego Terrence Cody DT
What no Ryan Matthews? There’s plenty of running back depth in this class and AJ Smith has found late round gems before (Michael Turner among them), while there are precious few 3-4 NTs to be had. Cody needs to keep his weight in check, of course, but fills the Jamal Williams-sized gap the Chargers desperately need to fill to make sure emerging, run-heavy teams like the Jets and Ravens don’t up-end them in post seasons to come.
29. New York Sergio Kindle LB
Vernon Gholston is officially a bust and despite Rex Ryan’s addiction to blitzing, the Jets generated surprisingly few sacks in ’09. Kindle would fit the bill as an athletic edge rusher but is very much a consolation prize in the absence of Jared Odrick or Everson Griffen.
30. Minnesota Patrick Robinson CB
The Vikes ought to have been the NFC’s Super Bowl representative, and were it not for a baffling Favrian gaffe, they would have been. That said, CB Cedric Griffin was lost with a nasty knee injury in the same game and Minnesota will want to sure up a defensive backfield that will have to get past the Saints’ explosive passing attack if it’s to make it to the title game in 2010.
31. Indianapolis Rodger Saffold OT
You have to protect the franchise, and the franchise is Peyton Manning in Indiana. Charles Brown is still available, but Saffold fits that safe Colts profile a little bit better. The Colts could still do a lot more to upgrade a so-so defense, but they tend to do that with later round picks.
32. New Orleans Ryan Matthews RB
The Saints benefited years ago when Deuce McAllister fell to them in 2001, and with Pierre Thomas only tendered at a second round level earlier this off-season, you have to figure a chance to upgrade with a player of Matthews’ calibre would be a chance they’d pounce on.
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