NCAA Scouting The Nick Saban Seal of Approval by Paul Emery March 28th 2011
Over the last few weeks, whether it be in discussion about Marcell Dareus being the number one overall pick, Mark Ingram as the first RB off the board despite poor athletic numbers, Julio Jones pushing AJ Green for the first WR to be taken or even James Carpenter being taken higher than his tape in season might dictate, theres always mention about Alabama prospects having an advantage as theyve been coached by Nick Saban. With an NFL background evident on both sides of the ball coupled with the way he pushes his players, NFL GMs are said to be very comfortable drafting Crimson Tide prospects. But is this actually the way forward? Lets look back at the last two drafts to see if Alabama prospects have been able to contribute as early as GMs seem to think they can.
2009 Draft
Andre Smith OT 1st round (6th overall)Cincinnati Bengals this has been a disastrous pick. Smith struggled to get himself in shape at this time two years ago and has struggled with injury and poor form. In his rookie year he only managed the one start, while this year he only had four starts. His third year could well be a make or break year for him, but right now hes looking like a bust.
Glen Coffee RB 3rd round (74th overall)San Francisco 49ers Coffee is already out of the league. After a rookie year where he got some playing time (although only managed 2.7 yards per carry from 83 attempts) he rather suddenly announced his retirement prior to training camp this past season. This 3rd round pick was completely wasted.
Antoine Caldwell OG 3rd round (77th overall)Houston Texans Caldwell hasnt been a regular starter but hes seen time at center and guard, that versatility part of the reason the Texans drafted him. Despite starting the last 3 games in 2010, hes currently listed as the backup to right guard Mike Brisiel.
Rashad Johnson FS 3rd round (95th overall)Arizona Cardinals when Cardinals starting FS Antrel Rolle left via free agency to join the Giants last off-season, it seemed that perhaps Johnson would get his chance. However, very quickly the Cards traded for Kerry Rhodes and Johnson has been a backup. Johnson has started only one game each of his two seasons and has just the one interception.
2010 Draft
Rolando McClain MLB 1st round (8th overall)Oakland Raiders McClain was plugged in as the starting MLB in Oakland the moment he was drafted with the 8th overall pick. He started 15 games for the Raiders this past season really coming on as the season moved forward. He looks like hell be a fixture in the Raiders defense for years to come.
Kareem Jackson CB 1st round (20th overall)Houston Texans although Jackson started all 16 games for the Texans at times it wasnt pretty as he was picked on. He managed a couple of interceptions, but the 2011 season will be big for him to see if he has learned lessons from his rookie year and can develop into a good NFL player.
Javier Arenas CB 2nd round (50th overall) Kansas City Chiefs Arenas selection showed how valued the nickel role is in the NFL as with two fine starters in Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr they still used a second round pick on a CB, specifically to play the nickel. Arenas is also a good punt returner and so it was he was able to contribute as a rookie averaging 8.3 yards per return and also returning kick-offs some with a 21.2 yard average although he didnt repeat his exceptional college success probably because with a 4.6 40 time its tough to run away from pursuit. He was the Chiefs nickel back from day one and should continue in that role his height/weight/speed combination may mean hes never going to start but he will see significant playing time as the NFL becomes very much a passing league.
Terrence Cody NT 2nd round (57th overall)Baltimore Ravens Cody wasnt someone who the Ravens needed to step into the lineup right away. With Kelly Gregg in his mid 30s, they clearly needed to look to the future at NT and they felt Cody was too good to pass on. In the case of a protracted lockout, it will interesting to see what weight he then reports at as thats going to be the main thing that could hold him back. He saw some time as a rookie, but will continue to learn behind the wily Gregg until hes ready to retire and only then we will see if this pick was a good one.
Mike Johnson OG 3rd round (98th overall)Atlanta Falcons Johnson didnt see any time in 2010 and is listed as the backup at right guard to Harvey Dahl. Johnson may see his chance depending on the CBA as Dahl is a free agent.
Marquis Johnson CB 7th round (211th overall)St Louis Rams Johnson only played in two games and is listed as the 4th string LCB on the Rams depth chart. He will need to continue to develop as hes likely to be on the roster bubble.
Brandon Deaderick DE 7th round (247th overall) New England Patriots with injuries an issue for the Patriots LDE slot so it was that Deaderick saw significant playing time in 2010, including 4 starts. However, hes behind Ty Warren and Ron Brace on the depth chart, so the same may not happen in 2011. His college experience probably helped him more than any other player as he was able to adjust to a complex defense pretty well and contribute despite being a late round pick.
Overall
Things look better for those drafted in 2010, but still theres not really enough here for GMs to be pushing this years class up boards. Certainly in the case of the 2009 class, with three of the four not doing much to date, it really does show that theres no evidence that Crimson Tide players can contribute any earlier than anyone else. In the case of Deaderick, however, it shows that its worth something for a defensive lineman as the experience in 3 and 4 man fronts gives a better chance of being able to pick up an NFL defense such as the Patriots. GMs may feel they know what they are getting, but Smith and Coffee show thats not the case. Could it be after being pushed so much in college, with some cash in the bank some of these guys just dont want to continue to be pushed in the NFL?
So should your team draft an Alabama player higher than expected in the 2011 draft, dont presume its a slam dunk just because they had Nick Saban for a coach.
Andre Smith OT 1st round (6th overall) Cincinnati Bengals this has been a disastrous pick. Smith struggled to get himself in shape at this time two years ago and has struggled with injury and poor form. In his rookie year he only managed the one start, while this year he only had four starts. His third year could well be a make or break year for him, but right now hes looking like a bust.
