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The Crabtree Conundrum
by Sam Monson
13/3/2009
 Michael Crabtree had a big week at the combine, and he didn’t even work out. During routine medicals, doctors discovered a stress fracture in Crabtree’s foot, one that would require a screw to be surgically inserted before it would heal properly, and put the star wideout out for up to 10 weeks.
That’s 10 weeks as in after the Draft. NFL Scouts are going to have to decide whether Crabtree is worth the lofty draft status he had before the combine without seeing him ever run a 40 time.
Another interesting thing to come out of the combine was Crabtree’s official height. It turns out that the 6’3 receiver is actually 6’1. Colleges fudge the listed heights and weights of their players all the time, but Crabtree is such a large bodied athlete that it was a shock to many to see him listed at such an average height. Shorter than Jerry Rice.
Before the combine Crabtree was seen as a lock to be a top 5 pick in April’s draft, but now that he can’t run the 40, having elected to have the surgery rather than risk further injury to the foot, there are going to be some serious discussions in NFL draft War-Rooms in the coming weeks.
Crabtree was a star at Texas Tech, posting over 3,000 yards and a whopping 41 TDs in just 2 seasons at Lubbock, Texas. He was the go-to guy for QB Graham Harrell and came up big when it counted, including the last second TD catch that lifted the Red Raiders to a comeback victory over the Texas Longhorns.
Before the combine, Crabtree had it all. He was a big WR, with great hands, spectacular numbers, who showed up big when it mattered, and was drawing comparisons to Larry Fitzgerald who cemented his spot in the top 5 when he ran at the combine.
We all know that the 40 time is overrated, afterall, Jerry Rice ran in the 4.6s and Anquan Boldin in the 4.7s, but there is a time that people feel a WR or a CB needs to run under for them to be viable at the NFL level. Larry Fitzgerald cemented his spot by running under 4.6 seconds. If you can’t run under 4.6 as a WR, you’re un trouble. If you can’t get near the 4.4s as a CB, you’ve got people talking about switching you to safety. Jerry Rice and Anquan Boldin didn’t put up great 40 times, but those guys are exceptions, not proof that this theory is bunk. WRs don’t need to be able to run a 4.3 40, but they do need to have a certain of level of speed to be able to separate at the next level, in all but a couple of rare exceptions. The guy doesn’t need to be Steve Smith, but he can’t be Billy McMullen.
After the medical revelation, and the fact that he is significantly shorter than billed, people are now taking a much closer look at Michael Crabtree.
 What some are now focussing on is a WR who comes from a quirky offense at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders take the ‘spread’ to the extreme, even lining up with massive line splits on offense in an attempt to spread the opposition as wide open as possible. They’re a team that throws the ball as much as any in football, but 91% of those passes are between 1 and 11 yards downfield.
They’re seeing a player who was thrown to largely on WR screens where he was wide open and allowed to make serious yards after the catch through massive holes in a D spread thinly across the field the kind of holes that aren’t there in the NFL. They’re seeing a guy who might lack top end speed and who now can no longer prove otherwise.
In short, there are now people looking at Michael Crabtree and saying He’s a 6’1 WR who might run a 4.7 40, coming from an Offense that gives any receiver huge numbers we can’t take him here.
NFL.com’s Mike Mayock says the answer to that is to go back to the tape, which is just as well, because that’s all they can do now.
Scouts don’t like trying to evaluate the Spread Offenses that have become so widespread in college football. It makes their job much tougher, trying to separate the talent from the system and work out how it will translate to the NFL when they’re asked to do different things and achieve the same results.
Now the NFL has to go back and look at the tape on Michael Crabtree. Without the numbers from the combine they have to separate Crabtree from the Texas Tech offense and figure out just how good a prospect he really is. Can a team still commit $30m guaranteed to him? Can you still risk the financial commitment that a top 5 pick has become on Michael Crabtree? For what it’s worth, this writer still believes Crabtree is a star waiting to be born at the NFL level, whatever the numbers.
But in an age where the combine numbers are perhaps vastly over-relied upon, teams won’t have any for Crabtree, and he’s already come up short of their expectations, 2 inches short.
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