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Four Downs with Stock & Doc
by Ben Stockwell and Paul Hopkins
2/7/2008
This week the guys look at the issue of a rookie salary cap, whether the Bills will end up migrating to Toronto, what the Raiders have in store and begin their countdown to the new season through looking at each division in turn. This week the AFC East.
 There is no need to introduce a rookie salary cap.
 STOCK FICTION ! There is absolute need for a rookie salary cap or more rigid rookie contract structure, rookie contracts and the guaranteed money they’re getting has gotten completely and utterly out of hand, when you’ve got rookie’s taken at #3 overall earning amongst the top five signing bonuses in the history of the game, there’s something wrong. This isn’t to say that they’re all out of whack, those contracts in the lower end of round one and downwards are in correct proportion; you should be getting starters there, so those contracts are value and into round 2, below market value for starters, so the problem is only the top half or top ten of the first round. These contracts are not only out of proportion for the players, but they are potentially crippling for the franchises. A rookie salary cap, or a structure akin to the NBA’s slotting system, helps not only the veteran players who have earned their money but also helps the teams, it doesn’t give the massive financial penalty to teams in the top half of the draft missing on their first round selections.
DOC FACT ! So basically what you are saying is that it’s only the top guys’ contracts that are the problem? So why do we need a rookie salary cap for that? I suppose the initial question needs to be why are people paying them? If the teams got together and decided that the incremental rises higher up the first round weren’t going to accelerate at the pace they have, then what can players (and their agents) do? Hold out? What for? It lowers their value to the team that drafted them, and any other team especially if they all agree not to continue to see the figures rise. Despite all this talk of player power etc, franchises still hold the keys to playing football, so it’s their way or the highway for rookies and their greedy advisors. Signing them early is beneficial but if they won’t accept a reasonable sum let them stew and let them fade away if need be. Yes, they may help the team win and signing them appeases the fans that don’t really care about the business. But so what? You’re in charge for a reason; take the tough but correct decision. And potentially, they are crippling for the franchises? Well, I don’t see anyone holding a gun to their head, saying sign this player and give him over 30m guaranteed do you? The level of spend needs to come down but introducing a salary cap is just more rules and restrictions that eventually teams will get around. All it needs is common sense to come into the equation.
 The Buffalo Bills will end up moving to Toronto permanently.
 STOCK FACT ! Sad to say but the problem is that Buffalo and the Orchard Park area of New York have seen their best days and the population and wealth of the area is decreasing, it’s getting to the point where the community cannot sufficiently support the franchise. Toronto is only a short hop away and is a much larger commercial market that already provides a large part of the Bills’ fan base travelling across the border to every game. It’ll be sad to see but financially it’s going to take a massive turn around in fortunes for the Buffalo/Orchard Park area to be able to support the Bills in the long term. Many cities in the USA have benefitted from urban regeneration, but I severely doubt that Buffalo is a prime target for the next project.
DOC FICTION ! I’m going to play devil’s advocate on this one. All the reasons you give are fair and logical assumptions, but there’s one small thing to this that I’m going to raise. Moving to Toronto would mean a franchise outside the United States (only just mind!). Is the NFL ready for that? I know there’s been a lot of talk about moving the game beyond the borders of the US, with international games happening more and more often, but it’s a very big step to re-locate a team full-time outside the US. I know Canada is but a stone’s throw away but it opens up issues over whether a Mexican franchise would happen, and potentially even a London franchise. There’s still a fair few owners who are happy with expansion right now, but don’t want it being their own team having to play abroad. This would potentially be a can of worms that some of them won’t want opened. I think that might be a struggle to win them over to allow the Bills to move north and means that they will be in Buffalo for longer than people think.
 Despite all the acquisitions made and money spent, the Oakland Raiders are set for another season of disappointment.
 STOCK FACT ! Their QB will be in his first season of starting, their big wide receiver just got his head kicked in and their left tackle is Kwame Harris…………. This season I don’t think will be as tumultuous and disappointing as the last few years have been for the Raiders, they’re moving in the right direction and have some key cornerstones in place but they’re still off of the pace of the Broncos and Chargers in the division. They should top the Chiefs in the division, though a large part of that may be down to the fact that the average age of the Chiefs appears to be around 15, and they’ll be a generally more effective team than last year, but for the investment put in this off-season Al Davis may well deem any season without playoffs as a failure, in which case, failure here they come.
DOC FICTION ! Disappointment seems to come hand in hand with Oakland of late, but there are occasional glimmers of hope. And I think they’ve got a few, but Kwame is not one of them. Disappointment will be defined from what they expect of the season, but I just think they’ll do what you expect. Russell and McFadden will give them flashes on offence, I’m not sure what Javon Walker will show them though. The defence will be stout as it has been for a few years now, with Morrison and Asomugha excelling under the radar somewhat. As the man at the top has supposedly admitted, they may have over-spent this off-season but I still think they are moving forwards albeit slowly. The last few years have given some perspective to the Raiders they don’t expect the playoffs anymore. This year won’t surprise them. So I think they’ll be pushing up towards 6 or 7 wins, a .500 record if things go really well.
 The AFC East will be the most one-sided division in football again in 2008.
 STOCK FACT ! The Bills are a popular pick as a dark horse but quite frankly they’re not even close to the quality of the Patriots, you could create an all-star team of the Dolphins, Jets and Bills to team up against the Patriots and they’d still get beaten to a bloody pulp over the course of a sixteen game season in comparison to the Patriots. The Dolphins will be better than last year, though that’s not saying much, the Jets have made some big time investments but some of the same problems (QB play) still remain and the Bills whilst an interesting prospect are still just a fairly mediocre team who played above their means last year and lacked consistency. The Patriots are a cut above the rest and what could be greater motivation than going one game better this season? Patriots by at least four clear games for me.
DOC FACT ! It will be closer, but still the biggest stroll to the playoffs for any team in the league. I don’t buy the Bills hype, yes they’ve shown potential but they lack, as you say, consistency, and the sheer ability to just pound a team like New England have. The Jets are moderate, but should also be better, and the Dolphins should just aim for not being awful. They’ll all be aiming for 8-8 at best, well the Dolphins perhaps should be aiming for 4-12, but New England will get at worst 12-4. I can envisage a Superbowl hangover at first but they’ll hit their stride and be comfortably out of sight by November. Another procession for them.
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