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Four Downs with Dang & Doc
2009 AFC West Preview
by Brian Davis and Paul Hopkins
1/8/2009
This week , with training camps officially underway the AFC previews conclude with the West. Again, the Chargers are favourites, but does the hype justify the reality? Elsewhere, not the dust has settled has Kyle Orton what it takes to inspire the Broncos, are the Raiders or the Chiefs going to pull a surprise and rise above mediocrity. And does all this make the West the worst division in football?
 The Chargers enjoy an easy ticket to the post-season and are not a team capable of making the Super Bowl.
 DANG FICTION ! – Whilst they have recently enjoyed a more somewhat comfortable ride towards the post season, because of the lack of quality within their division, they still have all the players to knock off more favoured teams when put in winner takes all situations. Just ask the 2007 and 2008 Colts. The Chargers have come up short against eventual Super Bowl teams in the last two years, but not without a battle on each occasion. Last year they fell to the Steelers who eventually went on to win it all. The year before that they fell to the steam train that was the unbeaten Patriots and we all know what happened there. The Chargers missed their heartbeat on defence last season and with five games to play needed to win out and hope results went against Denver to make the playoffs. They won out, Denver slipped up. They made the post-season. This season, that heartbeat is back. He’s ready to tear up opposition offensive lines and Quarterbacks, Shawne Merriman will ensure that there is more push up front, to help out last year’s ailing secondary, thus making the Chargers defence much more of a force. A lot of people are writing off LaDanian Tomlinson, but do so at your peril, with Darren Sproles sharing more action with him, expect Tomlinson to have another very good year. I certainly see an increase on last year’s numbers when he played through injury. He is not done yet, Mark my words! This season will ask a lot of questions of the Chargers. Then we’ll see how good they really are and far the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders are behind them.
DOC FICTION ! Firstly, the Chargers don’t enjoy an easy ride to the off-season, look at last year for case in point. The Broncos had that sewn up and the Chargers managed to peg them back right at the death only taking the division with a pitiful 8-8 record. So let’s get that out of the way. They SHOULD coast to the post-season year on year such is the talent they have at their disposal and such is the perpetual turmoil that the other teams in their division seem to be in (see in particular, Oakland) or as descending into (see Denver), but that doesn’t always happen. So let’s get that out of the way first. So, are they a team capable of making the Super Bowl? Yes, they are a team capable of doing so, but I don’t believe they will. The talent is undoubtedly there right across the board. The problem, for me, lies in the Head Coach Norv Turner. The window of opportunity for this team to really get there has, in my view, now passed them by. They still have enough to become a perennial playoff team, and once there with the likes of Rivers and Merriman they’ll always have a chance to upset stronger opposition but they’re no longer a team I consider to reach the Superbowl. Others have left them behind.
 Kyle Orton is good enough to lead the Broncos to the AFC West title.
 DANG FICTION ! – Purely because the talent in San Diego is better. If the Broncos had the Chargers defence then I believe that they’d have a better chance. Defensively I don’t quite understand what the Broncos were up to on draft day. Whilst they went ahead and drafted one of the fastest and best Defensive Ends in Robert Ayres in the first round, they then seemingly failed to address any further key areas in the front 7 in their transition to a 3-4 defence. If you look at any of the other defensive linemen they currently have, they’re really not going to be making much of an impression on any opposition offensive lines across the NFL. With Mike Nolan in charge of the defence and Josh McDaniels as head coach, alienating players and fans left right and centre, this season is a whole recipe for disaster. That being said, Orton should have a better time of it in Denver than he had in Chicago. He has a far superior Left Tackle to look after him this year in Ryan Clady. He’ll also have a solid bunch of receiving options, especially if #15 Brandon Marshall is still there come week one. The fact he still appears to want out has to be a HUGE concern though. With Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley, Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler to throw to, you have to fancy Orton’s chances of making a decent fist of it, but the problems on the other side of the ball, coupled with issues with the coaching staff, will stop this team moving much beyond 6-10. Orton is also in a contract year so, he’ll want to either earn a new starting contract in Denver or earn a new starting contract elsewhere.
DOC FICTION ! Echo your words as simply because the Chargers will be better. But it opens up bigger questions about Kyle Orton and his ability to lead a team. He was asked in Chicago to manage games and not lose them, and on the whole performed that task admirably. He had the defence and (a few years back) Devin Hester to help the team over the hump if he managed the ball effectively and kept the offence ticking over. However, here in Denver he hasn’t got those elements. The defence is at best anaemic. The shift to a 3-4 and some of the acquisitions made by new coordinator Mike Nolan don’t appear to address the problems they had, so Orton cannot expect the defence to support him. They should have a strong running game, Knowshon Moreno is a stud I feel will make a strong contribution from the outset. And of course he has Royal and Marshall, two weapons he never had in Chicago. But now, the pressure is on Orton, the functioning of the team depends on Orton. And unlike in Chicago where people didn’t expect much remember he was replacing Rex Grossman, the eyes are going to be on Orton. Can he do it? I have my doubts whether he will steer them to a winning record. However, he is going to be part of a bigger picture in Denver this year, centering on a rookie Head Coach who has piled all the pressure onto himself.
 Either the Oakland Raiders or the Kansas City Chiefs will have at least a .500 season in 2009.
 DANG FICTION ! – I like the direction the Chiefs are moving in on both sides of the ball. They’ve made some smart additions in Free Agency and the draft. They have a fantastic young defence, which may take a little while to gel, but the foundations and building blocks are in place for long term stability. Offensively, I’m interested to see if Matt Cassel is much of an upgrade over Tyler Thigpen, whether Larry Johnson has anything left in the tank and how the game plan will adapt to use the receivers more after the huge loss of Tony Gonzalez. I think they’ll fall a game or two short of a .500 season, purely due to the toughness of this year’s schedule, but this franchise is moving in the right direction, unlike Denver and Oakland. In 2010 I fancy them to push the Chargers hard. As for the Raiders, it’s difficult to try and look on them positively. They have a quarterback who can barely string a sentence together and looks more like a lineman. They made a move for Jeff Garcia which wouldn’t fulfil me with confidence over my franchise quarterback. They then put together one of the most bizarre drafts in recent history, including a track star who has good not great, hands with the 7th overall pick, ignoring the far more productive and prolific Michael Crabtree and a then drafted a seventh round prospect in the second round! They then released one of their draft picks without him even hitting training camp or playing a down in a pre-season game! What kind of hope can you hold for a franchise that’s run like that? Zero. To stand any kind of hope of doing anything in 2009, the Raiders have to use their main strength which is their running game. With Darren McFadden, Michael Bush and Justin Fargas they have three very good running backs, who would be involved on any NFL team’s roster. They have to get the ball moving. If they can’t, then the season will be a total disaster, if they do then they will pick up some wins along the way. Will they make .500? No.
DOC FICTION ! The Chiefs will go close. As you noted, they’ve got a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and to be fair they also have some good talent on the offensive side of the ball. I love the Pioli-Haley combination as I said from the outset, and they have enough to galvanise this franchise within a few years to really have the Chiefs challenging in the AFC West. Its arguable now that they have two QBs who can play in the NFL. Granted, Thigpen had to have virtually a college system implemented for him, but there’s no denying it was effective. Cassel, again maybe got help from the system but there’s no reason to assume they can’t find a system in Kansas City to help him. Dwayne Bowe remains one of the best kept secrets in the NFL at WR and don’t forget Larry Johnson at RB. I also like some of the veteran additions made Mike Goff and Zach Thomas to name two who will provide some on-field leadership for their young talented teammates around them. There’s enough to get half a dozen wins for the Chiefs and that would be a job well done by their new guys. Oakland’s a mess. There’s more chance of me praising Jason Garrett than the Raiders getting to 8-8.
 The AFC West is the weakest division in football.
 DANG FACT ! When you have the Oakland Raiders in your division you’re always going to struggle to convince anybody that you’re in a strong division. With the current mess in Denver, it’s hard to then have two teams in such a state to be considered anything other than the weakest division in football. You could argue the NFC West is the worst division, but despite three teams with very poor records last year, they’re just not as dysfunctional as Denver and Oakland. I think it could be another long year for Seattle and St Louis but improvements will be made. Could this be Marc Bulger and Matt Hasselbeck’s last year in the NFL as starters? One more telling injury for either and you have to think that it might be. Other than that, both franchises may be both about to start turning the corner. The Cards going to the Super Bowl last year raises the bar somewhat and the 49ers could be an outside shot for a Wild Card spot next season, something that the second place team in the AFC West will not be, regardless of other divisional records.
DOC FACT ! Hesitant to say this because I was one of those saying before the start of the 2008 season that the AFC East was the most lop-sided division in the NFL, with the Patriots light years ahead but going off last season there’s really no argument to stand up against this. The winner of the Division had an 8-8 record; the team that finished second also stood at 8-8 but lost the last four games to effectively allow an 8-8 team into the post-season ahead of better teams with better records. The other two teams weren’t worth their time the Chiefs dived downwards fast and although they got hugely creative with that offence and the personnel they were working with, they still struggled. And then there was Oakland. And there’s nothing I can add to that that Al Davis and one of his OHP slides wouldn’t do ten times better. Entering this season, the Chiefs have begun the upward curve and as stated above I think they might shock a few people this year, the Raiders well, who knows what is going to happen there. It could click or it cost (and more likely) will just meander along as it has been, stagnating careers. And then there’s the Broncos. Everyone knows what has been going on there under McDaniels and I’ve voiced my view enough in this column that he is to blame for the descension into farce. The Chargers will be stronger, but looking at things is there going to be a challenger for them after about week 6?
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